Early last week, President Trump hinted at providing more US support to Ukraine, and as the week progressed there were more signs of a change in direction. On 9 July, paused American aid was restarted. CBS reporting that “A U.S. official confirmed to CBS News on Wednesday that shipments of some munitions, including 155mm artillery rounds and precision guided GMLRS rockets, which had been paused by the Pentagon about a week earlier, had resumed flowing to Ukraine.” Releasing $300 million of military aid may indicate that Trump intends to back his recent rebukes of Putin with concrete action.
Later in the week, further details emerged indicating a change in Trump’s position. The Guardian reporting on 11 July that “Donald Trump appears poised to deliver weapons to Ukraine by selling them first to Nato allies in a major policy shift for his administration amid frustrations with Vladimir Putin over stalling negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.”
Now Trump is ‘teasing’ a big announcement about Ukraine on Monday. The White House has an uncoordinated and ad hoc approach to setting foreign policy, a situation that makes assessment difficult but we are certainly seeing strong indications that Trump is tiring of Putin’s unwillingness to negotiate.
My assessment of Trump is that he is an emotional person, and bases policy decisions on his personal interpretations of the political situation. Currently, he is feeling empowered and confident after the success of America’s recent intervention in Iran. Confidence that was reinforced by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s diplomatic offensive at the 2025 NATO Summit. The Secretary praised Trump’s actions, and made sure that NATO countries committed to increase their defence budgets. On the surface, he provided Trump with a ‘win’ although the ‘fine print’ of the proposition is not so positive for the US.
The agreement to increase funding allows NATO countries to accrue aid for Ukraine against their commitment to increase spending. Therefore, it is likely that a significant portion of the increase is likely to go towards supporting Ukraine instead of military spending. For example, nations that are not directly threatened by Russia may choose to reallocate foreign aid spending to Ukraine and count it towards the required increase in defence spending.
NATO’s agreement also establishes a large joint-fund that can be used by the alliance to build new capabilities. The fund will be large because each member state has committed 1.5% of their contribution towards it. My assessment is that this fund will be used to develop military capabilities for the alliance that are currently provided by the US. For example; funding ammunition production facilities in Europe, increased satellite surveillance capabilities, satellite-based digital communications and navigation systems that can guide precision weapons without US assistance. The alliance future proofing itself against US policy changes. Probably not what Trump intended, but NATO’s warm words and promise to increase spending makes him feel like he has ‘won.’
In turn, after being rewarded for his action against Iran’s nuclear programme and his firm rebuke of Israel for breaking the ensuing ceasefire, it appears that Trump is more willing to act decisively. Few would say that Putin is acting in ‘good faith,’ his conditions for peace negotiations are essentially Ukraine’s unconditional surrender, and Russia’s aerial bombardment of Ukraine is relentless.
It could also be said that Putin is trying to stare Trump down, to ‘play him’ by talking nicely but not stopping the campaign, thereby forcing Trump to call his bluff. A step that Putin portrays as a high-risk option for the US by persistent nuclear sabre-rattling, and portraying Russia as a first-rate military power.
However, Trump’s recent military and diplomatic success may be changing his perceptions of Russia. Putin’s ‘spin’ wearing off and the voices of better strategists like Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who has a good relationship with Trump, or Rutte gaining more weight. Or perhaps Trump has simply tired of Putin, either way it looks like Ukraine will soon receive more US support.
Campaign update
In both the air and land domains of this conflict, there has been little change since the last post. However, in the air there is one notable change – the increasing number of drones that Russia sends each night against Ukraine.
The BBC reports that “June saw a new monthly high of 5,429 drones, July has seen more than 2,000 in just the first nine days.” Domestic production of drones is increasing and it is likely that Russian drone attacks will keep increasing in size. The significance of drone numbers is not the damage they inflict, Shahed drones have a relatively small pay load. Instead, it is the interference they cause for Ukraine’s air defence command that is forced to track numerous incoming targets. Some are armed drones, some are decoys and some are missiles but all need to be quickly classified, prioritised and intercepted.
This makes protecting Ukraine’s cities and civil infrastructure very difficult. As we have previously discussed it is impossible to analyse drone attacks without considering Russia’s strategic bomber force. (See – https://benmorganmil.substack.
My assessment is that swamping Ukraine’s air defences with drones is a deliberate strategy. One designed to degrade the air defence network by encouraging Ukraine to use up its anti-aircraft missiles aiming to create an opportunity for Russia’s strategic bomber force to enter the campaign. Long-term this is probably Russia’s objective, but in the short-term the drone offensive is also useful because it contributes to the perception that Ukraine is losing.
A perception that does not correlate with the latest reports from the land campaign. Russia continues to lose roughly 1000 soldiers killed or seriously injured per day to make small advances over non-critical ground. Russia’s plan still appears to be focussed on threatening Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the two large Donetsk cities still in Ukrainian hands.
Achieving this goal requires the capture of either Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk or both and Russia’s main effort appears to be directed towards this goal. However, Russia has a secondary effort, aiming to draw Ukrainian forces away from Donetsk by attacking near Sumy.
Since the last post there has been no tactically significant change on the main effort, both Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk remain in Ukrainian hands. Likewise, the Sumy advance appears to have been stopped.
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This week the Institute for the Study of War reports a new small Russian intrusion into Ukraine at Velykyi Burluk, and we should watch this area to see how the situation develops.
Some notable recent tactical innovations
Although movement is minimal along the frontline there is plenty of tactical innovation taking place, including the following:
Russian use of chemical weapons
Long suspected and now confirmed is Russian use of chemical agents in Ukraine. Associated Press reported on 4 July “The Netherlands’ military intelligence and the security service, together with the German intelligence service, found that the use of prohibited chemical weapons by the Russian military had become “standardized and commonplace” in Ukraine.” The report identifies the agents used as chloropicrin and the riot control agent CS.
It appears that these agents are used against troops in trenches or bunkers forcing them to leave their protection, at which point they can be engaged by artillery or direct fire. Some reports indicate that drones are used to drop canisters of gas into Ukrainian positions, but this is likely to be just one method of projection.
AI in Shahed Drones
Last month, Associated Press and Euronews reported that analysis of a crashed Shahed drone revealed evidence of rapid technological advances. Euronews reported “It had an advanced camera, a computing platform powered by artificial intelligence and a radio link, allowing an operator to pilot it remotely from Russia. It also contained new, Iranian-made, anti-jamming technology, according to a Ukrainian drone expert.”
Ukrainian spokesperson, Major General Vladyslav Klochkov stated that Russia’s Shahed drones can be modified to use AI to guide themselves to targets without relying on GPS coordinates, and flying tactically to avoid air defences. Using AI in drones is not new but the deployment of this technology in a relatively unsophisticated platform like the Shahed demonstrates how ‘thinking weapons’ are starting to become more common on the battlefield.
Ukraine gets NATO data sharing software
On 29 May, Ukraine announced that it has signed an agreement to acquire the NATO standard ‘Control and Reporting Centre System Interface’. This system is a digital information system that lets weapon systems and sensors share information in real-time using NATO standardized data-links including a software package called ‘Link 16.’
Ukraine is installing Link 16 in its F-16 fighters, enabling them to instantaneously share information amongst a control centre, other fighters and with friendly air defence missiles like Patriot. The new technology will increase the effectiveness of Ukraine’s fighters and if required allows for immediate integration with NATO militaries.
Substacker, Wes O’Donnell provides a more detailed breakdown here.
Eyes Only with Wes O’DonnellConclusion
In conclusion, it is too early to be sure about Trump’s plan. If he decides to increase US support for Ukraine, the decision will bode poorly for Russia. Since the last post, Russia has not made any tactically significant progress, and appears unable to generate enough combat power to change the situation. This could mean that Putin has missed a ‘window of opportunity’ to make progress on the ground that may soon close as Ukraine receives more ammunition and other aid.
Putin’s conditions for peace negotiations are extensive and include; regime change, disarmament of Ukraine, not allowing Ukraine to join NATO or allowing foreign peacekeepers to monitor a peace agreement. This list of extensive demands means that Ukraine is unlikely to parley unless it is catastrophically defeated.
Defeating Ukraine and forcing a collapse of its ground forces is highly unlikely, based on current Russian progress. This makes the drone campaign important because if Russia can degrade Ukrainian air defences and its strategic bomber force can be used to flatten cities, like it was in Syria, then Putin may be able to force negotiations on his terms. However, this is also unlikely to happen and is becoming less likely by the day as Europe and now possibly the US mobilise to support Ukraine.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
I guess we now know.
“President Trump said on Monday the U.S. would impose 100 percent secondary economic sanctions on countries that trade with Russia if Moscow does not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine in the next 50 days.”
And he’ll keep his voting base happy be now selling weapons rather then “giving them away”
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/trump-the-next-100-days/5399546-live-updates-trump-nato-russia-ukraine-senate-house/
Trump has learnt well from Luxon the art of doing a giant back flip .He attempted to make the Ukraine President surrender to Russia by waging a televised personal attack on him at the begining of the year .Now what Zelensky said about Putin has come around and bitten Don on the arse and made him look like the shit deal maker we all know he is ,he has done the Luxon back flip and will now use Ukraine to wage war on Russia .Trump is not a real negotiator ,just a bully who throws his toys when people say no .
Sanctions didn’t work, tariffs won’t either. Watch oil prices take off.
Neither will trying to bomb people into submission. Obviously Russian generals have forgotten about World War II.
That’s exactly what the Ukraine government has been doing to the people of the Donbass since 2014. Which is why they voted to leave.
Its all politicking, aka bullshyt. Trump maybe going a bit funny in the head now, but he’s still a five star bull-crapper. The US never withdrew support and they never will withdraw support, but their level of support, now days, is a pittance to what it once was, as again, the US palms off this war to Europe allowing the US to concentrate on, primarily, their/our impending war with China. This latest bout of bluster will at least appease a few Trump pets
Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting hammered now as Russia finally realizes that this war will only end on the battlefield as the US is far too untrustworthy to negotiate anything with. Ukraine is getting hammered. Sure, I’m against hegemony, but fark me, you got to feel some sympathy for the Ukrainian people – it is their bought and paid for politicians who are leading them down the path of destruction, after all.
Exactly and there’s another reason why Trump the bullshiter won’t do anything on Russia, Putin has a certain golden shower video tape on Trump but then again in America the video will only garner more votes such are the warped supporters of Trump.
An Ozymandias moment for Western economies.
https://youtu.be/QT9ZgMehfZk?si=IcrMtYKu6tHK2wLj
Ben Morgan poses the question has Trump changed over Ukeaine
BEN MORGAN: Trump changing course on supporting Ukraine?
By The Daily Blog -July 15, 2025
The answer to Ben’s question is, only as far as it profits the US military industrial complex.
Donald Trump war profiteer in chief.
From the Guardian:
US president says he will supply Kyiv with billions of dollars of military equipment paid for by European allies
“a very big deal”, in which “billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment is going to be purchased from the United States, going to Nato … And that’s going to be quickly distributed to the battlefield.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/14/trump-does-deal-with-nato-allies-to-arm-ukraine-and-warns-russia-of-severe-sanctions
Ben ignores the $billions the US supplies Israel gratis to commit genocide in Gaza.
Ar fact that Ben Morgan is very careful not to mention..
Ben Morgan (uncharacteristicly) mentions the Middle East
“….if Russia can degrade Ukrainian air defences and its strategic bomber force can be used to flatten cities, like it was in Syria, then Putin may be able to force negotiations on his terms.” Ben Morgan
Israel the US backed power follows the same strategy of flattening cities that Russia employed in the Middle East, but you won’t hear any critical mention of this from Ben Morgan.
Ben Morgan’s and others like him silent endorsement of Israel flattening cities in Gaza is also giving silent endorsement of Russia to flatten cities in Ukraine.
Looking further ahead, the Western and Russian supporters for flattening of citiies and starviation of civilians as a justified method of modern warfare are ensuring that this is how the coming war between the US and China will be fought.
US President Trumps opinion changes hourly and his actions break both American and international law. ,,,, the majority of the world watch on as ” the West, which once dominated the world, maneuvers entire regions into a new catastrophe time and time again, lacks any humanity in the pursuit of its goals and tramples on the rules it has set itself.”
https://sonar21.com/findings-on-an-illegal-war-that-the-west-enthusiastically-waged-and-lost/
Regime change was the unlawful aim of the illegal war launched against Iran ,,,and the attack started with the International equivalent of a ‘Cowards Punch ‘ ,,,, this ‘Cowards Punch’ was not the ‘King Hit’ that the war criminal Zionists deluded themselves into thinking they could deliver a knock-out blow with ,,,,, and after the painful first Cowards punch / Suckers punch was shrugged off with non-mortal damage by Iran,, then Israel itself started getting hammered as their vaunted Iron dome became a rusty sieve with larger and larger holes appearing …….”Trump’s reports of victory are so inaccurate that even the American secret services did not remain loyal to their supreme leader in their announcements and were more inclined towards the Iranian view of things……”
“these attacks have had exactly the opposite effect on the Iranian people to that intended by the West: The Iranian people are united now behind their leadership, including the group of young people who want to see the society modernized domestically. The attack has therefore not only failed militarily, but also in terms of society.”
Zionists War Criminals Inc will have to direct their never-ending murder spree onto other people for a bit until they have their next crack at Iran,,,
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Russia has always been consistent in their demands for Ukraine which are indistinguishable from Ukraines independence undertakings,,
,,, ie Lavrov- “Ukraine must return to the foundations of its statehood and adhere to the spirit and letter of the documents that underpin its legitimacy. Let me remind you that Ukraine declared a neutral, non-aligned, and non-nuclear status in its 1990 Declaration of State Sovereignty. In August 1991, the Supreme Soviet passed the law on the declaration of independence, reaffirming the principles of that declaration. The Declaration of Independence is cited in the preamble of Ukraine’s current Constitution.””
However the Genocidal racism of Ukraines ‘Nationalists’ ( OUN heirs and Banderites), combined with the genocidal racism of NATO will never agree to terms like this from the “snow-niggers / Orc’s (Russians) ,,,,, Lavrov -“It is equally important to ensure respect for human rights in territories still under the control of the Kiev regime, where everything linked to Russia, Russians, and Russian-speaking people has been systematically destroyed since 2014 — the Russian language, culture, traditions, canonical Orthodoxy, and Russian-language media.”
This racism by NATO is one reason NATO nations support and help Zionist Israel commit a Genocide in Israel ,,, Wayne aka Wayne Mapp who supports Ukraine has previously stated we in New Zealand are like Israelis ,,,, which is true for himself and his ilk,,, like Luxon, Seymour, Collins and co..
….But the majority of New Zealanders do not support the carefree killing of children,,,, so he should actually say ‘my class of politicians’ in his generality’s.,,,, 100% pure evil???
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And Lets get real on the casualty counts ,,,,, this graph of something which can be counted suggests a slaughter,, and not of the Russians https://sonar21.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/image-13.png
“The fact is, there’s a reason why MediaZona very abruptly changed up their methodology to include “projected” deaths rather than real counted ones, as done previously—because contrary to this coordinated propaganda campaign, Russian losses have actually been at the lowest in a long time. This is precisely the reason such an orchestrated campaign was necessary: Ukraine is badly losing, and the only remaining aspect of the war the propagandists could feasibly utilize to try and spin the narrative are the casualty figures, because they are typically the most ‘subjective’ and ambiguous in nature—which makes them perfect fodder for devious manipulation.
Presently, MediaZona has the total Russian death toll at ~117k as of early July:…….
….. If you highlight only January 1st to present, you get 9,849 confirmed deaths: ………….. That means through the first six months of this year, they have registered a mere 9,849 Russian deaths, which amounts to 1,641 per month. Western and Ukrainian publications, on the other hand, claim Russia is suffering that many deaths per day. The discrepancy shows an unprecedented detachment from reality. ”
….”” someone made a good point: since it is Ukraine that purports that 70-90% of their kills on Russian soldiers come by way of drones, they should be able to show all these vast amounts of losses via drone camera recordings; yet there is nothing—and we know the AFU loves nothing more than showing off its ‘successes”
Speaking of drone operators,, being one is s apparently one of the most dangerous jobs in the Ukraine army with a high and growing death rate for those doing it….
I’ll have a shot of vodka if / when Mr”.I can kill more Russians, and that’s what I’m here to do” Jordan O’Brian ,,, gets what is his dues https://cdn.iz.ru/sites/default/files/styles/900×506/public/news-2024-12/1_1_2.jpg?itok=k79qMSw6 …. He did say he’s not coming back to New Zealand and will stay in Ukraine,,, I’ll drink to that. https://www.rt.com/russia/609132-mercenary-new-zealand-trial/?ysclid=md4gbiozny209236392
Translation = ‘B Awakesky’ is a fruit loop and lives in a basement.
Has much of what you posted corresponded to reality?
US Imperialism’s focus is on China not Russia or Europe, Europe and Russia are only minor threats to US global hegemony.
BEN MORGAN: Trump changing course on supporting Ukraine?
By The Daily Blog -July 15, 20
Shrot answer: NO
Let’s face it, most of Trump’s election year rhetoric on the Ukraine conflict was aimed at Biden and not the actual war. Trump framed Biden as too weak to stop Putin invading, of letting NATO and Europe freeload off the US, getting played by Zelensky into funding the war and unable to make a deal to bring the conflict to a close. If Biden had not supported Ukraine, Trump would probably have accused him of abandoning an ally.
Now in power, Trump is likely receiving similar assessments as Biden did – keeping Russia tied-up in Ukraine benefits wider US interests. With NATO members committing to a creative defence spending of 5% of GDP, funding Ukraine weapon purchases and Ukraine signing a mineral deal, it is not the Russians who are giving Trump wins.
At this point it is hard to tell if Trump’s 50-day ultimatum is a real deadline or just a way to placate Republicans like Lindsey Graham. Is it a way of pushing the question of supporting Ukraine out of the headlines, or a drift back to Biden’s stance but with a change in the funding model?
Before he was elected President of the US for his second term, Donald Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office.
How’s that going after more than 4,000 hours?
The US focus pivoted away from Europe and Ukraine. The new hyper imperialist Trump administration sees the European theatre as a minor theatre of imperialist conflict, compared to the Indo-Pacific region.
Slowing US military aid to Ukraine has allowed military advances by Russia. The Kremlin has shown it has no intention of stopping its war against Ukraine. Russia has taken advantage of weakened Ukraine air defence to launch the biggest bombing raids of the war so far. Ukraine’s major cities including the capital, Kyiv have been targetted.
Ukrainians for their part have shown no willingness to surrender to Russia, with or without US support.
US military aid for Ukaine has now been turned back on, on the condition that Europe pays for it.
No good news for Russia continuing with the war.
US ‘Patriot’ air defence batteries that Kyiv had been desperately seeking to blunt Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s cities, paid for by Europe, will finally be supplied to Ukraine. Alongside the Patriot air defence for Ukraine’s cities, for the first time US made long range ATACM offensive missiles capable of striking back at Russia’s major cities, including the capital Moscow, and US permission to use them for that purpose, are being supplied to Ukraine.
The US arming Ukraine with long range missiles to attack Russia….fine idea. Have you considered that these missiles are nuclear capable and can only be used with US technical assistance. So deploy these into the neo Nazi nutter state of Ukraine, fire them at Russia and leave it up to Russia to decide if it is a conventional or nuclear strike. Madness.
The soul sickness of supporters of Russian imperialism.
According to these blood thirsty hypocrites it is perfectly OK for the Kremlin to launch unprovoked attacks on Ukrainian cities with nuclear capable missiles, including at least one ICBM. But for Kyiv to finally be able to respond with attacks on Russian cities with nuclear capable ATACAMs, is not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mepZlts1mfg
Pat you are a sick supporter of US imperialism as expressed by neocons and NATO fighting a proxy war using Ukrainian neoNazis as frontmen. The same vicious crew who slaughtered Jews and Poles in WW2. And yet to your credit you support the Palestinian cause against the same ugly empire. Are you terminally stupid or bipolar?
“Are you terminally stupid or bipolar?” A pertinent question. I would say that Pat is simply an idiot.
Have you considered Nick that the missiles Russia have been firing into smash Ukraine’s cities are nuclear capable. So fire them at Ukraine and leave it up to NATO and the West to decide if it is a conventional or nuclear strike. Madness.
Alongside Putin’s repeated threats to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, shows who is closest to madness.
Compare Putin’s blood curdling and insane threats to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, amd the US resply, saying that saying that it the Russian Federation used nukes, the US would immediately respond by totally destroying the Russian army, navy and airforce with an overwhelming and devastating conventional weapons attack.
I qill admit that it is only a matter of degree, which is worse US imperialism or Russian imperialism, so I will leave it up to others to decide which side is the most rabid genocidal irrational and fascist imperialist regime..
For my money I would pick the Russian Federation as being slightly ahead, the Russian Federation, being the more desparate and weaker imperialist power.
Yeah right .Because Russia declared they would take out 7 countries in 5 years.And while behind in the timeline are on the home stretch
Because Russia is backing Israel’s slaughter of Gaza to the hilt, supplying endless money and weapons
Because Russia has vowed to take Greenland by force if necessary, is now interfering heavily in the internal matters of Brazil, has worked to wreck the economies of several countries by way of sanctions and tariffs, has totally disregarded several UN rulings, continually threatens its own allies.
Has killed half a million Iraqi children by way of sanctions and blocking of medical supplies “because it was worth it”
Has declared itself to be the only indispensible country, has a policy of exceptionalism, has an economy built on slavery and genocide
Pat you’re full of shit and should be ashamed of yourself
Francesca, Pat is a Marxist. They’ve all got a snitcher on Russia for getting rid of communism.
With regard to the photo accompanying this article this https://x.com/essenviews/status/1945870392742359433?s=46
must raise some questions about the Butler Trump”shooting”.
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