New Roy Morgan Poll has the Right surging…
National: 32%
Labour: 28.5%
Greens: 11%
ACT: 11.5%
NZF: 8%
MP: 5%
…this despite:
- 758 construction businesses have gone into liquidation in the last 12 months, thanks in part to the Government’s freeze on transport, housing and hospital investment spending at the beginning of 2024, Centrix reported this morning. Construction jobs have fallen by 12,723 in the last year.
- Reports out recently show Worker and employer expectations of real wage deflation are worsening as the economy slides back into a mid-year stagnation
- RNZ have been comparing supermarket shopping and found that In May 2022, their first shop at Woolworths Greenlane cost $238 dollars and $217 at PAK’nSAVE Royal Oak. But in 2025, those same items at Woolworths have shot up to $305 dollars – an extra $67 dollars at the checkout where as the PAK’nSAVE shop, was now $270, an extra $53 dollars in cost.
Despite promising to tackle the cost of living crisis, the Government has failed and has instead leaned into tough on crime rhetoric in the hope the electorate don’t notice that the Governments austerity program and privatisation agenda is making things worse not better.
The Roy Morgan Poll always under polls Labour, but they are picking up the deep, deep, deep damage the culture war woke dogma has caused the Left against men…
Men favour National/ ACT/ NZ First by over 25%; women favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori by 15%+
The ‘gender split’ continues in June with a majority of 62.5% of men favouring the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 33.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
In contrast, on an overall basis women remain heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 56.5% – well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 40%.
…if the Left can’t win back men, we will lose the 2026 election.
While the Left have underestimated David Seymour and ACT, so too have the right.
ACT are National’s existential threat and a direct competitor with NZF.
The social media hate algorithms polarise and radicalise, this is the perfect breeding ground for ACT and NZF.
They are both culture war vultures, parasitically feeding on the rotting flesh of National’s rump vote.
ACT have concluded that 20% of the electorate are up for grabs and they are making a direct play towards that electorate.
BASIC GROUP 1 – Rich landowning urban white Christians who don’t like Māori political aspirations but enjoy the aesthetics of the culture to not feel so white. The kids are totally in private schools and their names are ‘Apple’ and ‘Bruschetta’. Most aren’t sure what a Libertarian is. They are Professional with zero intellectual curiosity outside exclusive holiday destinations, no capital gains tax and some bullshit corporate meditation daily ritual to ‘be present’, which isn’t that tough when you can afford Lululemon and live in a leafy suburb mansion. Their children, ‘Apple’ and ‘Bruschetta’ are members of the Young Nats and are fucking pretentious arseholes who openly refer to their parents as ‘Mummy’ and ‘Daddy’. The first thing these people say at functions is, “I’m not racist but…”
BASIC GROUP 2 – Chinese and Indian Migrants who don’t understand why poor people and the Māoris get welfare. These small business owners lust for political influence and see National Party local events as a chance to work business contacts while demanding to know why New Zealand can’t have the death penalty like they do back home.
BASIC GROUP 3 – Rich landowning rural Volk who don’t like Māori political aspirations and detest the aesthetics of the culture because it makes them feel less white. These are the ones who complain about Te Reo in the Weather report on TVNZ. They live in the South Island and believe the solution to every problem is ‘More Cows’.
BASIC GROUP 4 – Edgelord Culture War Boomers voting for ACT because of shrill definitions of sovereignty and democracy. Like Chris Trotter at a dinner party no one wants to be at.
80% of ACT voters support Trexit.
Almost 50% of NZF support Trexit.
30% of National voters support Trexit.
This group can be pooled into the 20% reactionary vote who will vote ACT instead of National or NZ First all because David puts ‘equality’ in his branding of this legislation.
The problem for National is this is their electorate ACT are intending to take.
As politics continues to polarise thanks to social media hate algorithms, ACTs appeal will grow, not diminish.
It is absolutely likely that ACT will soar into the teens and stay there, but it will be at a the cost of National.
The positive news for the Left is that ACT cannibalising National (while great for ACT) will mean they simply can’t form a Government and Labour + Green + MP will be the majority.
ACT is an existential threat to National.
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Personally I don’t think the conclusion here is correct.
ACT is going to cannibalise the National Party vote for sure but it’s not going to be existential, on the contrary it will make the right stronger, at least in their own eyes.
The reason is National spporters are incredibly naive, while also being incredibly duplicitous. They enjoy National being dragged further right as do National Party MPs. And the reason is they do not have to admit it. They can maintain the pretence of being centrist while letting ACT do what they would love to do themselves.
They can even vote ACT and not admit it. The fact is these people are so greedy and fearful they can easily be manipulated to believe the poorer levels of society are a burden and therefore a threat.
History tells us where that leads and National supporters will be clutching their pearls publicly while letting out cries of unadulterated joy behind their closed curtains.
The left can’t believe that Luxon would have the temerity to call citizens bottom feeders, but the right after an initial gasp embrace it totally. We saw this under John Key where bullying in the workplace just became the norm as it was prevalent from the top echelons of power down.
I agree with you as they already work in coalition now so any shift in the voter support between National and ACT is not enough to reduce the conservative vote. People need a reason to vote and not the mindless exercises in social engineering that have occupied so many on the left for so long. While working smarter and not harder is a sensible idea we have a managerial class who have taken it to the extreme and feathered their own nests while putting an increasing part of society into poverty. This is not helped by people’s use of chemicals to medicate their minds so that some of them become incapable of contributing in any meaningful way, so while I can understand the hopelessness they feel, it is only when a political party on the left can articulate a vision that enables every New Zealander to see a viable way that their life can be made better that will see men prepared to support them.
That picture!!!!!!
Ew. Amanda should be worried. So should that flighty flibbertigibbet Brooky Wooky
Looking at polls outside of an election year is surely almost completely pointless – and I think history pans that out. Even near Election Day, polls have been notoriously unreliable (remember “bugger the polls” from Jim Bolder). So many things can change between now and next year that could radically shift poll numbers (e.g. Labour getting rid of Chippie who is absolutely unelectable as a future PM imo, or a disordered collapse of the National/ACT/NZF coalition) that to track them is simply a waste of your valuable time.
Polls are not there to tell us who is going to win an election rather to give righty tighty politicians a clue as to where to put parking meters.
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