Ben Morgan: Air battles, Belgorod and US grand strategy

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The last week was busy, on and off the battlefield. Recent events hammering home the point that ‘peace deals are made in the real world,’ and that regardless of how much President Trump wants to stop the war there are factors he cannot control.

One of the uncontrollable factors is Putin.

After receiving the US proposal for a ceasefire Putin made his first move. He immediately refused to make any concessions, reiterated his long standing aims and elevated himself to being an equal of the US president by saying he would call Trump to discuss the situation in person. On 18 March, Trump accepted the offer, and called Putin.

What did the phone call achieve?

Not much it seems, Putin said he would consider a ceasefire and stated his conditions that can be summarised as follows:

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  • Stopping all foreign military aid to Ukraine, including sharing intelligence.
  • Ukraine is to cease mobilisation, and is not to be rearmed.
  • That any peace deal is “complex, stable and long-term in nature“.

Putin reportedly agreed ‘in principle’ to a partial ceasefire, matching a similar offer from Ukraine. However, the details of the agreement are hard to discern, the Guardian summing up the situation as follows “It was immediately clear that the three parties had different views about what the pact entailed, with the White House saying “energy and infrastructure” would be covered, the Kremlin saying the agreement referred more narrowly to “energy infrastructure”, and Zelenskyy saying he would also like railways and ports protected.”

Essentially, at this stage both Ukraine and Russia agree ‘in principle’ to some sort of cease fire but the details are yet to be confirmed. Meanwhile, both sides continue fight hard on the ground and to batter each other with drones, bombs and missiles. The Russians targeting Ukraine’s power grid and cities, Ukrainian drones and missiles hitting Russian airbases and oil infrastructure. Both sides desperate to weaken the other’s war fighting capacity before a cease fire comes into force.

Ukraine and Russia up the ante in the air war

Previously, we have highlighted Ukraine’s plan to degrade Russian air defences and it seems to be paying dividends as Ukrainian drones and missiles reach deep into Russia. The war against Russian air defence’s includes the destruction in January of a Russian Strela 10 air defence system in Crimea, by attack drones launched from a sea drone. A noteworthy incident indicating the rapid innovation that is a feature of this war.

Ukraine has systematically targeted Russia’s large, S300 and S400 ‘area defence’ missiles. Ukraine uses good intelligence to locate these systems and then attacks them with drones, missiles and even local partizans. Euromaiden Press reporting on 17 March that “Ukrainians also targeted the Russian air defense network through a series of covert sabotage operations, coordinating partisan activity onto critical components and assets.” The article provided examples of this activity stating that “The Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate also organized several sabotage operations within Russian territory, infiltrating Tver Oblast, setting fire to an S-300 command post and radar station, disabling the long-range system, and creating a significant gap for Ukrainian drones and missiles. Additionally, Ukrainian agents sabotaged two Zhitel electronic warfare systems in Voronezh, further crippling Russia’s ability to counter drone swarms.”

Russian air defence is clearly a priority target, and now gaps are opening wider, Ukraine is setting Russia’s oil infrastructure ablaze. For example, this month Ukraine has successfully attacked at least eight major oil infrastructure targets. Some at great distances from Ukraine, like the Ufa Oil Refinery attacked on 4 March, that is 1400km inside Russia. Other targets are of high strategic value like the Moscow Oil Refinery struck on 17 March that supplies 50% of Moscow’s petrol, or the Saratov Oil Depot that supports Russia’s strategic bombers at Engels Air Base struck on 20 March.

Ukraine appears to have damaged Russia’s air defence network to the point at which it can strike oil facilities at will, affecting the Russian economy. Recently Livia Gallarati, a senior oil markets analyst at Energy Aspects, provided an assessment for the Telegraph newspaper stating that “Some of the sites that we know have been attacked and we’ve been able to corroborate that they are very big, important refineries,” before adding “And we have seen a meaningful decline in Russian refinery runs – before the attacks, they were refining around 5.6, 5.5 million barrels per day. Now we’re down to around 5.1 million barrels per day

Meanwhile, Russia continues to target Ukraine’s power network and its cities. Odessa suffering an especially heavy raid on 21 March. Some commentators allege that Russia used thermobaric bombs. These powerful weapons create an explosive vortex, sucking oxygen out of buildings and bomb shelters before starting intense fires.

In November last year, Associated Press reported that a Russian drone factory is building drones with thermobaric warheads, so these allegations may be correct. See- https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drones-thermobaric-bombs-decoy-2f904b04fcc5de17549415a974f5a92b

Like Ukraine, Russia is successfully damaging its opponent and it will take more than a phone call with Trump for either to stop their air attacks. Reality is intruding on the Trumpian discourse, and we must acknowledge that ‘In principle’ agreements are meaningless.

The operational-level situation, what is going on in Belgorod?

Russia continued to maintain pressure along front line last week, specifically in Donetsk and Kursk. However, Russian daily activity in Donetsk has reduced, correlating with lower Russian daily casualty rates indicating a slow down in this section of the frontline. This information supports the assessment that Russia’s operation in Donetsk has culminated.

As predicted, Russia maintained pressure on the Kursk Salient, Ukraine recently announcing the withdrawal of its forces from this area. Contrary to Putin and Trump’s statements there are no reports of Ukrainian forces being trapped or massacred in the withdrawal.

In fact, on 18 March, Russian military bloggers reported a Ukrainian attack near the salient. Ukrainian forces crossing the border into Russia’s Belgorod region. The attack is about 25-30km south-east of the Kursk Salient, near the villages of Demidovka and Prilesye, and appears to be relatively small. The BBC reporting Russian official sources that reported “…up to 200 Ukrainian servicemen and 29 units of military equipment, including five tanks, 16 combat armored vehicles, and three engineering obstacle clearing vehicles, were involved in the attacks in the Belgorod direction.” Ukraine has not made any public statements at this point.

The aim of this attack appears to be creating a diversion to draw Russian forces away from the Kursk Salient while Ukrainian forces withdraw. The relatively small size of the force, the attack’s proximity to the salient, along with the lack of important targets in the area being attacked indicate this is spoiling attack to support the withdrawal rather than a larger offensive.

The big picture, reality bites again

A recurring question in peace negotiations is Trump’s motivation. US policy continually appears to favour Russia, causing people to ask if there something more sinister behind Trump’s motivation? Why does he seem to always be deferring to Putin?

The Trump administration’s sudden reversal of US policy towards Ukraine is noteworthy and some commentators (including the Washington Post) speculate that Trump’s position regarding Russia may be a deliberate policy, designed to help split the Sino-Russian partnership. See – https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/11/trump-russia-ukraine-reverse-kissinger/ The argument is that since the Trump administration is committed to competition with China it may be willing to sacrifice Ukraine, to build a diplomatic bridge with Russia.

Historically, this type of diplomacy is common, and a noteworthy example is provided by US statesman Henry Kissinger’s campaign to woo China in the 1970s. The US forgoing its ideological differences to build a relationship with China, that isolated the Soviet Union.

And, there is evidence that China has appreciated the risk, and is actively securing its relationship with Russia. For example, on 21 March Russian Federal Security Service Head Alexander Bortnikov, a very powerful member of the Kremlin met with Chinese Security Minister Wang Xiaohong in Beijing to strengthen security arrangements. And, only a month ago President Xi and Putin spoke, Xi stating that China and Russia “cannot be moved away” from one another.

If Whitehouse policy is to sacrifice Ukraine to build a strategic relationship with Russia, they are being surreptitious about it, and are unlikely to be successful. The US’s treatment of Europe and criticism of NATO has created a powerful block of nations willing to support Ukraine. France’s President Macron and other European leaders marshalling a ‘coalition of the willing’ to support Ukraine, either to achieve a fair peace deal or to continue its resistance.

Further, the ‘coalition of the willing’ is likely to include non-NATO countries like Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea. Creating an international alliance and reducing US global influence as small nations look towards Europe for security leadership. Perhaps, without US leadership other nations within the ‘Global South’ will become more comfortable supporting Ukraine.

Essentially, the current administration’s lack of statesmanship has created a mechanism for Ukraine to continue the war without US support. So even if Trump tried to force a ceasefire on Ukraine he could not, and reality is imposing inconveniently any potential plans.

And, now Trump must accept another dose of reality as he tries to manage Putin, who does exactly what he wants rather than ‘playing nicely.’ Putin is unlikely to reject China and build a relationship with the US, for two reasons. The first is the risk that the US will turn against Russia as quickly as it has turned on its historic allies, and the second is that if the Trump cannot stop Europe supporting Ukraine, there is little benefit in developing a closer relationship?

Summary

Next week representatives from Russia and Ukraine meet in Riyad, Saudi Arabia to discuss exactly what agreement ‘in principle’ looks like, and if a cease fire is possible. My assessment is that there will be progress, both sides need a break. But there will not be a long-term deal.

Instead, it seems that the Trump Whitehouse has sufficiently damaged its relationships with Ukraine and Europe that it lacks the influence to force a cease fire. US behaviour encouraging Europe to support Ukraine to keep fighting until Russia is defeated.

This leaves Trump caught in a difficult position – What happens if Ukraine refuses to stop fighting? Does Trump provide aid to Russia? By being unstatesmanlike, the current administration has created a significant and entirely avoidable risk.

If the administration’s goal is to court Russia and split the Sino-Russia partnership, a middle ground may have existed. Perhaps, European leaders would have accepted a softer treatment of Russia in exchange for détente, and a chance to break the Sino-Russian partnership. However, this option may have disappeared because European leaders are less likely to trust the Trump Whitehouse.

Now, the ‘ball is back in Trump’s court,’ and he needs to choose between Russia, or isolation from traditional US allies. In a worst case, Trump may put his money on Putin, a gamble that most people would not take, and that is unlikely to be supported by even the most MAGA of US voters.

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack

33 COMMENTS

  1. If the war in Ukraine is indeed a proxy war, there must be real concern in some circles over the poor performance of their Russian proxy.

  2. Trump only needs to stop aid funding, arms supply and military intel, and this war will soon be over. But despite his bluster, he has done none of these things. Meanwhile, Putin, despite reiterating long standing aims on top of listing his ceasefire conditions, despite all of this, it is Putin that is the uncontrollable factor here! Trump lays his cards on the table, Putin responds and yet Putin’s response is unacceptable. What does this say about diplomacy, it says that there is no diplomacy, only a take it or leave it mentality, which as we can see in the Middle East has led to renewed, if not increase conflict there, and most likely will lead to ongoing conflict in Ukraine-Russia. And yet it is Putin that is the problem!

    As for the ‘coalition of the willing’…clearly this is something that has been in the works for quite some time. This is not a reduction of US influence, this is merely a division of labour. Trump has long called for its allies to beef up its military spending and its allies have clearly responded with the ‘coalition of the willing’ near trillion dollar war plan. This allows the US to primarily focus its war machine outside of Russia/Europe and more towards China and the rest of the world. Meanwhile, US minions – Europe/UK – diligently serve US interests in Europe. Likewise, ANZ will have to ramp up its spending to help the US down this way. There’s a common denominator here and it ain’t fucken Putin, folks!

    • Trump only needs to stop aid funding, arms supply and military intel, and this war will soon be over. AO 2025

      Roosevelt only needs to stop aid funding, arms supply and military intel, and this war will soon be over. Hitler 1942

      Wikipedia
      https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Lend-Lease
      a policy under which the United States supplied the United Kingdom, the Soviet Union, France, the Republic of China, and other Allied nations of the Second World War….

      • Well, the point is either right or it is wrong. It is there to be corrected, or sullied if one cannot challenge the point….

        • The point is, the war will continue even without US support. Even without Europe’s support, the war in Ukraine will continue. Not until Russia withdraws will the war end.
          Vietnam, Mozambique, Afghanistan, Syria, Palestine.
          if these examples have shown us anything, it is that no imperialist or colonialist power, no matter how powerful they may be, can defeat a popular insurgency that just won’t quit.
          If it takes decades of a drawn-out guerilla war of attrition to defeat the imperialist occupier, the war will not stop until the invader is driven out.

          Until Ukraine is liberated from the Russian occupier the war will continue.
          Not until the imperialist aggressor finally gives up and accepts the inevitable and withdraws, will the war end.

          • Ukraine is already defeated….by the US and Europe and its corporations
            “The largest landholders are a mix of Ukrainian oligarchs and foreign interests — mostly European and North American as well as the sovereign fund of Saudi Arabia. Prominent US pension funds, foundations, and university endowments are invested through NCH Capital, a US-based private equity fund.”
            The UK with its 100 year deal has hooks into
            Ukrainian earth metals, good luck getting that honoured with Trump’s draconian deal on the way
            https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/new-report-take-over-ukrainian-agricultural-land
            Think you’re looking at the wrong enemy pal

          • Imperialism is in full control of Ukraine. Zelensky’s recent visit to his masters in Washington easily illustrates this. So yes, Ukraine will not be liberated until imperialism takes its hooks (withdraws all support and not just military and intel support) out of Ukraine. Lets not forget that Ukraine occupies a part of Russia too, and has done so for a while now. And yet we don’t label these actions in the same way that we label Russia’s actions…that’s if we even talk about this in the first place. Lets not forget also, that all of the insurgencies you have mentioned were underpinned (cultivated and financed) by imperialism.

            It is not by accident that the longest running conflicts, this century alone, has had the same ‘power’ involved in them. The same sad dynamic is playing out here.

  3. Thanks Ben!

    There are several moving parts to this conflict:

    > Trumps primary aim is to get the US out of this war and stop spending money on it. He views it as a European problem that the Europeans need to fix. In this he has been 100% successful.

    > In order to make a real peace settlement I think Putin has to be *forced* to negotiate and that can only be done by upping the ante for a while, such that he has to capitulate rather than face a rout. Can the Europeans deliver that? I doubt it because to date the Europeans have given Russia more in oil revenue than they have donated to Ukraine. This whole mess was caused by Europe’s luxury beliefs about energy.

    > Despite their claims, China is only nominally the friend of Russia. They are egging Russia on so as to deplete its capacity to defend itself in the far east. Putin, just like his predecessors has preferentially conscripted men from ethnic minorities in Siberia such as the Buryats, Khakas, Yakuts & Evenks. This has had two effects: Firstly, it has further antagonized those tribes against Moscow and secondly it is depopulating that region. The ultimate consequence is that China will take control of the vast untapped resources of that territory. Most recently the Chinese have quietly taken over a strategic position inside Russia on the confluence of two far eastern rivers.

  4. The US administration is hell bent on instituting a nationalist theocracy at home. They want the EU and Canada distracted on the global stage so they won’t meddle on behalf of democracy in the US. The tariffs and ceasefire plays are all just diversions from the civil war going on for control of the US Federation. The South is still bitter and want their autocracy back. Trump just wants to be like the big boy gangsters, Putin and Xi.

      • It’s more fun for him to vent his warped views in a country where he doesn’t have to be concerned about those religious police that he worships.

  5. The Capitalist Ceasefire

    …..the White House saying “energy and infrastructure” would be covered, the Kremlin saying the agreement referred more narrowly to “energy infrastructure” Ben Morgan

    In the Russia/US carve up of Ukraine, the Whitehouse ‘wish list’ includes US ownership of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

    https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/white-house-adds-ukrainian-power-plants-growing-wish-list-rcna197303

    The Neutron Bomb, known as the ‘Capitalist Bomb’ permitted the killing of human beings while protecting valuable infrastructure.

    The ‘Capitalist Ceasefire’ permits the killing of human beings while protecting valuable infrastructure.

  6. Glory to Ukraine – they have valiantly fought alone for their own survival for years now with only minimal support from Nato (and for which the US is belittling them now for).
    Putin is the Hitler of our times / literally a common criminal and shame on those on here who defend and laud him.

  7. There has been a changing of the guard in the US at a number of levels. Biden aligned with the cold war / grind your enemies down mindset, Trump aligns with the war is bad for business mindset and that seems to be his primary motivation
    There is no mention in the msm that Russia has been on the receiving end of the cold warrior’s crusades in the past and has no intention of going back to the 1990s. For the sake of future stability I wish Trump good luck.

  8. Zelensky won’t be around very long’, says Trump

    The Times
    https://www.thetimes.com › World › Russia-Ukraine war

    President Trump warned President Zelensky that the Ukrainian leader ‘won’t be around very long’ if progress was not made on a peace deal.

    “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy but to be America’s friend is fatal” arch US imperialist and war criminal Henry Kissinger

    Something that president Zelensky of Ukraine is finding out the hard way.

    Why Trump is selling out Ukraine for peace with Russia
    CaspianReport

    538,263 views Mar 23, 2025

    Behind closed doors, #Trump has allegedly offered #Putin concessions on #Ukraine. Through this appeasement policy, Trump looks to flip Russia to contain #China.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUHao-vA98g

    Imperialists do, what imperialists do, the US gets the minerals and power plants, Russia gets the grain. In exchange Russia agrees to stay out of an alliance with China.
    Europe promises to give Ukraine the assurances against further Russian aggression that the US refuses to give.
    NZ doesn’t know what to do, go with Europe? go with the Yanks?

    1News
    https://www.1news.co.nz › 2025/03/11 › nz-defence-att…
    11 Mar 2025

    New Zealand, will take part in Paris talks on the creation of an international security force for Ukraine, a French military official said.

    …..Such an international force would aim to dissuade Russia from launching another offensive after any ceasefire in Ukraine comes into effect…..
    …..The New Zealand Defence Force told 1News a defence attaché in London will attend the Paris meeting, which Defence Minister Judith Collins said would be Brigadier Lisa Ferris.
    The international makeup of the meeting offers an indication of how broadly France and Britain — which are working together on plans for the force — are casting their net as they aim to build what the French official described as a coalition of nations “able and willing” to be part of an effort to safeguard Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.
    The French military official spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss the blueprint for the force that is shrouded in secrecy and the Paris talks that will consider it.

    Q. Who is Brigadier Lisa Ferris? google search
    A. Aotearoa NZ Defence Advisor / Head of NZ Defence Staff
    London, England, United Kingdom
    Experienced legal leader with over 20 years of experience in international, operational, and military law

    Q. What is a brigadier? google search
    A. A brigadier commands a brigade in the field, or holds a senior staff appointment. – the lowest general officer rank

  9. Now, the ‘ball is back in Trump’s court,’ and he needs to choose between Russia, or isolation from traditional US allies. In a worst case, Trump may put his money on Putin, a gamble that most people would not take, and that is unlikely to be supported by even the most MAGA of US voters.

    Forget about US MAGA voters, what about our military and political leaders Will they put their/our money on Trump and Putin?

    In the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine, New Zealand has so far opted out of any role as peacekeepers. Our military and intelligence agencies, so quick to send New Zealanders off to die and fight in US led wars, are so embedded with the US intelligence and military network that I doubt they would be bold enough to offend the US, by actually peace keeping.

    From Wikipedia:
    …The coalition of the willing, as it is known, is a coalition of 31 countries[1][2][3] which have pledged strengthened support for Ukraine against Russian aggression….
    ….The stated aim of the initiative is to facilitate the peace negotiation attempts launched and mediated by the United States between Ukraine and Russia in February 2025, by helping to build up strong enough security guarantees for Ukraine to ensure a potential reached ceasefire or peace deal would be lasting.[6]

    …..The group consists largely of European and Commonwealth countries.[26] The 16 countries that joined the 2025 London Summit on Ukraine on 2 March 2025, and expressed commitment to providing continued aid for Ukraine were:[12][13]

    Canada
    Czechia
    Denmark
    Estonia
    Finland
    France
    Germany
    Italy
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Poland
    Romania
    Spain
    Sweden
    Turkey
    United Kingdom
    Representatives for the following were also present at the London summit:[12][13]

    Leaders of the following countries have stated that they are also open to considering sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine:

    Australia[27]
    Belgium[28]
    Japan
    New Zealand[29]

    (So much for the NZDF being interested in ‘peace keeping’)

    • Yeah let colonialism march us to another world War. This mentality of warmonger towards others is uniquely white and British who stole over 1 trillion from that colony called India, let the fucking politicians send their own children better yet let’s bring back the Greek version of democracy where politicians finances are investigating before elections where they were limited to 4 years and any unexplainable money and they were arrested.

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