Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update:

Discussing geo-political and military activity in the Pacific.

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US Space Force deploys to Thailand for Exercise Cobra Gold 2025 

An emerging aspect of multi-domain war is managing space assets, and in recent weeks the US Space Force exercised these capabilities in Thailand.  Exercise Cobra Gold is the largest annual US-Thai training activity, and has been run for the last 44 years. 

The US Space Force’s aims were to test and demonstrate its capabilities, specifically its ability to deploy outside the US.  But what do these capabilities look like?  At the frontline, the key tactical capabilities can be summarised as follows:

  • Managing the flow of information from orbital satellites to combat forces, on land, in the air or at sea.
  • Intercepting or jamming the enemy’s ability to communicate with space.

Essentially, space is a key domain in modern war especially in the vast expanses of the Pacific.  Satellites providing a range of intelligence, from photographs to monitoring electro-magnetic transmissions.  For example, satellites can see when missiles or aircraft launch thousands of kilometres away and can alert friendly force air defences. 

Likewise, all ground or sea force movements can be monitored from space, and today rely heavily on GPS.  Aircraft, drones, ships and even infantry navigate using GPS and long-range missiles use the same technology to locate their targets.  Any disruption of the GPS network has significant tactical implications. 

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During Exercise Cobra Gold, two key technologies were on display; Honey Badger and Kraken. The former is used to secure critical signals by monitoring the electro-magnetic spectrum for jamming or interreference. By alerting friendly forces about electronic attack early, defensive measures can be taken. The second system, Kraken, is designed to search for satellite signals to and from drones.  

Deploying these assets to Thailand allows the US to test both the doctrine for their use and the logistics required to support them in the field.  We take the ability to send an email, or scroll through social media as a given in the civilian world, and militaries use similar systems to share information instantly across the battlefield.  

Any break in this communication net would reduce combat effectiveness. Likewise, satellites provide an all-seeing eye in the sky that provides excellent information to combat forces allowing them to plan effectively.   Dominating space, and the electromagnetic spectrum linking satellites to the surface is essential to any modern military’s success in war.  

Additionally, the ability for small Pacific nations including Australia and New Zealand to engage with US satellite networks is a key inter-operability challenge. Battlefield communications is no longer just about radio frequencies and protocols, it involves a much more complex digital spectrum, and the ability to engage with the US satellite network will differentiate between ‘first and second tier’ partners.  Any country wanting to safeguard its diplomatic position at the US table will need to invest in this technology and in working with the US to ensure inter-operability. 

Indian Chief of Defence Force visits Australia 

General Anil Chauhan, India’s Chief of Defence Staff visited Canberra on 5 March 2025. He was hosted by his counterpart Admiral David Johnston. 

The visit is noteworthy because it is the first time an Indian Chief of Defence Force has visited Australia.  The visit indicates the increasing security importance of India in the Pacific region, and that both nations are keen to build collective security relationships.  Australia and India are already part of the Quadrilateral Dialogue, a security discussion group that includes the US and Japan.  The Australian Defence Force’s media release called India a ‘top-tier’ security partner, demonstrating the importance Australia places on developing this relationship.

Meetings like this transfer strategic defence discussions into practical operational and tactical-level relationships. Admiral Johnston stating “We are committed to working closely with our Indian partners to enhance our interoperability, strengthen people-to-people links, and further cooperation with key partners to promote regional stability and security.” 

When the Admiral discusses interoperability, he means that ability for Australian and Indian land, naval and air forces to work together in future conflicts.  India is working towards similar objectives, aiming to become more interoperable with other sophisticated militaries. For example, India last year hosted NATO aircraft during Exercise Pacific Skies 2024, and although this phase of the activity involved limited joint training it certainly involved relationship building and familiarisation.

Additional indications of India’s interest in the region include the announcement that it is building a new embassy in Timor Leste, and last year’s Indian Navy visit to the Pacific.  Clear indications that India is keen to play a larger role in the Pacific. By working closely together both nations maximise their ‘weight’ in Pacific security discussions, and it is likely that we will see more Indian ships, aeroplanes and soldiers exercising with Australia in the future.  

South Korea shows new sea drone concepts 

South Korea is fast becoming a leader in the defence industry, designing, building and exporting a wide range of equipment.  The nation produces tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery, warships and is now pushing into producing sea drones, or Unmanned Surface Vessels (USV).

At this year’s Drone Show Korea a concept models of new armed USVs, Batch I and Batch II, were on display. The vessels are like small crewed ships about the size of a patrol boat.  The Batch I would weigh about 100 tonnes and be armed with a 20mm cannon and a 130mm guided rocket. The Batch II is approximately twice as large and carries a larger range of weapons a 20mm cannon, a 2.75-inch Poniard guided rocket, a 130mm guided rocket, a C-Star anti-ship missile, and a suicide drone swarm launch system. The vessels are equipped with an extensive sensor suite including long-range radar.

The capabilities and armament of these proposed vessels show they are intended to function as combatants.  South Korea plans to automate navigation and targeting, a human command being required for any attack.  But once the ‘green light’ is given the vessel’s AI will run the engagement.

South Korea’s concept sea drones are a window into the future of naval war, imagine a task group of these vessels operating alongside crewed submarines, or surface vessels.  The drones ranging far and wide surveiling large areas of ocean, able to locate enemy targets and either provide terminal guidance for long-range missiles fired from a crewed warship or the drones could engage targets themselves. Perhaps working together to swarm an enemy vessel. The possibilities are considerable and will change the way navies secure areas and fight. 

South China Sea update, Philippines resolve remains firm

Philippines is approaching its mid-term elections this May, and recent election polling indicates that a majority of Philippines voters want leaders that are willing to oppose China’s current aggressive foreign policy in the South China Sea. 

Radio Free Asia affiliate, Benar News reports that surveys of Filipino voters show overwhelming support for candidates that support opposition to Chinese encroachments in the South China Sea. For example, they cite research by company Pollster Social Weather Stations that found 78% of respondent support for candidates willing to confront China. 

This information indicates that the Philippines is a likely to continue its current policy of deterrence, raising questions about how the US will respond. Current US foreign policy is chaotic and the nation’s willingness to undermine historic defence relationships raises alarm bells in the Pacific.  

Nations across the region started strengthening collective security last year, possibly ‘Trump -proofing’ relationships. Philippines signing agreements with Japan and the US, and actively participating in defence activities with other nations like Australia or France. The latter sending an aircraft carrier to Exercise Pacific Steller 2025 in February, where it trained with Philippines, Japan and US forces. 

However, effective deterrence in the South China Sea or preventing an invasion of Taiwan relies on the US, and as retired Philippines Rear Adm. Rommel Jude Ong pointed out during a recent security forum in the Philippines the Trump administration has not stated its regional strategy, “What is the US Indo-Pacific strategy? That’s the question mark.”

And, tension in the South and East China Seas appears to remain high. In February, China conducted short-notice live firing exercises in both areas prompting Taiwan and Philippines to formally complain.  Another example of increasing tensions in this important region that require the US to establish a clear policy for managing.

US responds to Chinese warships in Australasia

Recently a small Chinese naval task group circumnavigated Australia conducting several unusual activities including flying drones over Papua New Guinea, and conducting short-notice live-firing exercises in the Tasman Sea.  

Commentators like retired Australian general, Mick Ryan assessed that the visit is both a threat and a way to test Australia’s relationship with the US.  

An American response was relatively slow coming, but last week the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported receiving confirmation from the Whitehouse that the situation was being monitored.  The spokesperson reiterated earlier statements by Secretary of Defence, Peter Hegseth that the US is ‘prioritises deterring conflict with China.’  

My assessment is that the real work is being done ‘behind the scenes.’ Last month US Indo-Pacific Commander, Admiral Samuel Paparo visited Australia. It is likely, that this meeting probably included plenty of discussion about the Chinese task group, about Australian security and about how Australia would work with other nations if a conflict develops in the South China Sea or around Taiwan. 

Melanesian update 

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia. 

Noumea rocked by violence

New Caledonia’s capital Noumea was struck by a series of violent incidents last weekend.  The incidents included large public brawls, and in a sperate incident the arson of a sandal wood factory. 

The incidents do not appear to be politically motivated, and were immediately condemned by pro-independence politicians. However, this sudden flare of violence may indicate a range of social tensions in New Caledonia, including a relatively young population, roughly 30% of people are under 20 and this group of people faces significant economic and employment issues.

Additionally, New Caledonia has a colonial history that has yet to be effectively reconciled. A process that suffered a setback last year, when the French government sought to change election rules to expand the franchise in New Caledonia. Changes that would have reduced the voting power of indigenous Kanaks, and initiated a series of violent riots. 

Although, last week’s violence may not have been politically motivated, it may demonstrate deeper social issues that need to be monitored and addressed to maintain peace and stability. 

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack

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