BEN MORGAN: Ukraine’s tactical-level plan for Kursk, more bad news for Russia

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Ukraine’s tactical plan in Kursk is becoming clearer, and it is not good news for Russia.  Ukraine continues to incrementally advance the frontline of the salient, in all directions. Ukraine claims to have captured 93 settlements and about 1,200 square kilometres of Russian territory.  Ukrainian leaders, President Zelenskyy and General Syrskyi are both discussing the idea of developing a ‘buffer zone’ in Kursk to prevent attacks on Sumy.  Both statements indicating Ukraine’s leaders want to present their Russian counterparts with the threat of a long-term occupation of parts of Kursk. A politically embarrassing situation for Putin’s regime.

A strategy reinforced by Ukraine destroying three large bridges crossing the Syem River, at Karyzh, Zvanaoye and Glushkovo.  The immediate ‘effects’ of destroying these bridges are that:

  • Any Russian forces south of the Syem River are now isolated and are at risk of being trapped.
  • A Ukrainian advance, either west from the existing pocket, or east near Tyotinko, now has a protected northern flank.
  • If Ukraine wants to hold Russian territory, the Syem River can be turned into a formidable defensive barrier.

Tactically, this means trouble for Russia because Ukraine now has the potential to inflict a defeat as any Russian soldiers trapped between the river, and Ukrainian forces are easily captured or killed. Russia is furiously building pontoon bridges, trying to get supplies in, or soldiers out. Russia is burning up resources while effective Ukrainian long-range missile fire destroys both the bridges and the units building them.  The map below, shows Russia’s precarious position. Any Russian forces in the cross hatched area are now in danger, unable to be easily re-supplied or withdrawn.

Ukraine has created a potential kesselschlacht, or ‘cauldron battle’ by surrounding a group of Russian troops that can be slowly reduced.  Russian soldiers trapped in the pocket will suffer air, drone and artillery bombardment until they either surrender or are weakened enough to be easily attacked by Ukrainian manoeuvre units.

Operational-level success? 

Tactically, Ukraine’s use of aggressive manoeuvre, combined with ground to trap Russian forces has been successful, and it creates the potential for a significant victory.  Additionally, it also threatens that Ukraine will hold ground, creating a long-term political embarrassment and forcing Russia to commit a large force to their removal.  However, at this point Ukraine still faces the immediate problem of Russia’s advance on Pokrovsk.

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It is important to monitor Pokrovsk when we discuss the success of Ukraine’s attack Kursk at operational-level because at this level success is based upon the following test  Does the attack effect Russia’s ability to achieve its goals in Donetsk?

Currently in Donetsk, Russia has not advanced past Ukraine’s defensive line, demarcated by Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, and Selydove. And in the last 48 hours is extending the base of its advance south, rather than west towards Pokrovsk, probably trying to turn the Ukrainian flank. Additionally, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 20 August that Russia is working hard, trying to find soldiers across its whole frontline that can be moved to Kursk, and there are indications that the need for resources is great enough that some may be coming from important areas like the battle for Chasiv Yar.

At this stage, there is little evidence of Russian reserves being diverted from Donetsk to Kursk.  I agree with ISW’s assessment that: “…the Russian military command is likely extremely averse to pulling Russian military units engaged in combat from higher priority sectors in Donetsk Oblast due to concerns about further slowing the tempo of Russian operations in these directions.” However, Ukraine’s operation is clearly developing into something more significant than a raid or a brief occupation to damage infrastructure.

Instead, it is becoming a large and potentially long-term lodgement that will require lots of Russian combat power to remove. Russia’s dilemma is that the longer Ukraine’s troops are in location, the harder this task will become. So, Russian commanders must now decide whether it is better to concentrate on Pokrovsk, or to redeploy experienced soldiers from Donetsk and attack the Kursk salient before Ukrainian forces can ‘dig in.’

Summary

The pressure on Russia is increasing and even by threatening to capture and hold the area south of the Syem River Ukraine embarrasses Putin’s regime.  So far, Russia’s response has been piecemeal and uncoordinated and my assessment is that Russia is trading ground for time, neglecting this battle to concentrate on the main effort, Pokrovsk.

However, as Ukraine increases the pressure by demonstrating both an intent to occupy and more importantly, the capability to do so, Russia is being forced to re-consider.  Putin would need to be supremely politically secure to allow Ukraine to build a fortified camp in Kursk.  And if large numbers of quality soldiers are not directed to the region soon, that is what Putin faces, making this battle an important inflection point.

From a military perspective, Russia would be best to stay focussed on the main effort and keep its resources at Pokrovsk because winning there opens a credible path to capturing Donetsk. Ukraine’s operation in Kursk is not an immediate threat, it can be contained and could then be defeated on Russia’s terms. Ukraine probably does not have sufficient manpower or logistics to advance far enough to threaten militarily significant targets. However, wars are always fought for political reasons and it will be interesting to see if the political embarrassment outweighs military logic and drives the redeployment of resources from Donetsk to Kursk.

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack

19 COMMENTS

  1. Many, many more dead Ukrainians (and others), served up on a platter by callous Ukrainian and NATO leadership. Sickening, how valueless life is to the (unelected) political class. Lets hope they wake up to this betrayal, sooner rather than later.

  2. Politically speaking Ukraine soldiers dressing up like Nazis and abusing old Russian is not a good look,,, or anything to support https://www.bitchute.com/video/4Z38uB2HczUg

    And kidnapping Russian civilians 19 second mark of this vid —Ukrainian troops kidnap Russian civilians https://www.bitchute.com/video/xvdYrl7FVGSW ,, 2mins 10secs it shows them (civilians ) getting beaten as well as kidnapped,, in a Ukrainian Israel style war crime….

    But then NATO does have a long history of partnership with fascists… “The USA concluded bilateral security agreements with the fascist dictator of Spain, Francisco Franco, and the fascist dictatorship of Portugal is a founding member of NATO. While the secret police of the dictator António de Oliveira Salazar tortured opposition members to death and set up concentration camps in the Portuguese colonies, the USA included Portugal in the community of democrats.”

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    The Kursk incursion has galvanized and solidified Russian support and determination against NATO and it’s junior partner pawns ,,, Russia keeps destroying Ukraines irreplaceable air-defense systems at a high rate ,,, In the near future this hail-Mary little bulge of a battle will see NATOs best equipped, trained and committed elite fighters/pawns ( the fascist ones) get what all fascists should have coming to them ,,, and these modern ones are just a fart in the wind compared to the WWII Kursk effort.

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    The committed elite (fascist) fighters are a thinning segment of Ukraine …. Ukraine is full of men ( and their families) who do not want to fight and be sacrificed in this war that they never wanted or supported ,, but they are being Kidnapped to force them to fight and die.

    This Is What Cultural Genocide Looks Like When All The Men Are Taken From The “Village” Ukraine https://www.bitchute.com/video/29MKM5q8tIx3

    This is What Forced Conscription Looks Like In Ukraine – Family Tries To Protect Their 18 Yr Old Son https://www.bitchute.com/video/TF5ihBpEB8dN

    Ukrainian men kidnapped in broad daylight by conscription officers https://www.bitchute.com/video/ZOyBWxbBBbEj

    Men trying to escape conscription in Ukraine caught at the border https://www.bitchute.com/video/6cv8aaYj3AVI

    More Ukrainian Families Fighting Back Against Forced Conscription https://www.bitchute.com/video/1gNUkoxbsNI6

    The Tisza River in Ukraine is blocked with wire to stop those escaping conscription https://www.bitchute.com/video/chd4RaBNesxV etc etc etc
    etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc ……

    On the other hand Western countries, and threads like this , are full of people who are very pro the Ukraine war,,, a war that they would never dream of personally fighting in……

    …. So I’d like to know what all the smug pro-Ukraine war posters who will never ever fight in the war they are so keen on ,,, I’d like to know what they would say to the Ukraine men (and their families) who DO NOT want to fight and who are being kidnapped in order to force them to do so.

    What do the pro-NATO crowd have to say to their UNWILLING sacrificial pawns ?.

    Perhaps they would be to ashamed to say anything ,,, Gerrit ? ,, Xeenophon?? ,,, James Brown ???

    What would they say ???

    What could they say ……..

    • What I say is that I 100% agree with you in regards the civil rights violation during conscription in Ukraine. Remember war is shit and shit happens. Not a conflict known to mankind where that has not occurred (civil rights violations) for those who thought appeasement and shirking behind others to combat imperialism threats, will work.

      Having grown up in a NATO country with Soviet Union tanks and troops (and nuclear weapons) stationed in East Germany along a border (iron curtain) stretching through Hungary and Czechoslovakia, I fully understand the concept and need for NATO. People in New Zealand simply cannot comprehend the concern (fear even) in those times with to potential of further Soviet Union encroachment westwards.

      Calling European NATO members “fascists” is erroneous but if it burns your wick, suits your narrative and believe system; go ahead. We simply don’t care knowing what is truthful and opposite to your thinking.

      WW2 Kursk effort required the Soviet Union to use troops from the Baltic countries, Belarus and the Ukraine. Russia does not have those troops so a Kursk reenactment is highly unlikely unless you believe that what happened 80 years ago is relevant today. The Soviet Union send 20 million of her people to the grave during the patriotic war. I don’t see many Russians lining up to be one of the 20 million today.

      I have nothing to say to what you call UNWILLING sacrificial pawns accept that your country is at war and that war will come and visit your cosy little corner enclave unless someone mans the ramparts.

      As I said; war is shit and unless one stands up and fight, your little world will crumble and be demolished under the conquering tank track and jack booted troops.

      NATO is not even in this fight yet, wait till they do if needed to defend further Russian westward attempts.

      Said enough?

      Oh; NATO members are reevaluating the threat (or lack thereof) of Russia and will be scaling back their military investment once Putin is gone and Russia back to mending the fences.

      Win Win all around.

  3. Many, many more dead Russians (and others), served up on a platter by callous Russian dictatorship and Elite. Sickening, how valueless life is to the (unelected) political class. Lets hope they wake up to this betrayal, sooner rather than later.

    PS Putin is “unelected”, for whilst elections are held , no opposition politicians lives to tell the tale.

    • The Commie party will beg to differ with you regarding Russian elections and yes, Ukraine would welcome elections if only Zelenskyy – and his US-led backers – would allow them, hence the unelected and others point. Still, the bigger point is this – the loss of life – and it doesn’t matter which effin side of this unnecessary war we are on, the loss of life here is tragic and we should never overlook this fact!

  4. Hilarious how Ben cheers on the deaths of Ukranians conscripted by the zionist Zelensky regime. Here’s hoping they frag their officers- and the dictator- soon.

  5. Mid week again? Geez, Ben is working double time to make the most of Ukraine’s “charge of the light brigade”.
    It’s a desperate bloody photo-op, hoping to provoke a nuke or provide cover for a “desperate evil Russia” narrative for a false flag atrocity.
    News flash to the pasty-arsed Western war plotters: Russia lost 30 million people to the last bout of Western-sponsored war. They’re not going to do anything rash when they’re so close to stamping out the current version on their own terms.

  6. Jeez, it’s so hilarious reading some of the pro-Russian comments. Their bitter twisted adherence to anti-democracy dictatorship and their pathetic attempts to justify Putin’s aggression makes for fun reading. The question has to be asked, why don’t these stupid people emigrate to their country of choice? Because at heart they are cowards.
    That said, Ben’s analysis of the latest defeat for Putin is spot on. Putin’s end is death by a thousand cuts, just like that of his favourite spy’s – Trump. Maybe they’ll both happen at the same time, or maybe not. But it will happen.

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