National – 35.4
Labour – 29.4
ACT – 9.7
NZF – 5.6
Greens – 12.7
Te Pāti Māori – 4
Opposition makes gains in new political poll
A new political poll shows the opposition making gains on the government, but not enough to take power if there was an election tomorrow.
The latest Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll put National down 1.9 points on last month to 35.4 percent, while its coalition parties ACT and New Zealand First remained mostly steady on 9.7 percent and 5.6 percent respectively.
Labour slipped 0.6 points to land at 29.4 percent, but the Greens bounced up 2.5 points to 12.7 percent. Te Pāti Māori was up 0.9 points to 4.0 percent.
On those numbers, the three coalition parties would have a majority with 63 seats between them, down three from last month, while the opposition would have 58, up two.
I don’t think David Farrar is good at polling women, or he’s being very selective about where he’s polling because all the internals are showing Labour in the low 30s and I think TUs Poll is a slow follower rather than providing foresight or capturing the moment.
It does however speak to the trends we are seeing in other polling now.
The danger for National is that the extremism of ACT and NZF will scare the bejesus out of middle voters.
While the hate algorithms on Social Media are polarising the fringes, the middle are recoiling at the level of abuse and openly toxic social policy.
Most voted National in the hope their house price would go up 10%, they sure as Christ weren’t buying into culture war grievances implemented as actual policy!
The naked reality of the budget was that despite bitterly criticising Labour for borrowing, this Government have borrowed MORE!
The difference is that when Labour borrowed it, it was to protect us from a once in a century pandemic, when National borrowed it, it was for tax cuts to their rich mates!
Once the electorate saw that, they couldn’t un-see it!
What was outrageous for most Kiwis was National promising cancer patients life saving drugs and then not doing it.
Wow.
Just.
Wow.
They had the $2.9billion for landlords, but they didn’t have $280million for cancer patients they had promised to save.
That. Is. So. Fucking. Ugly.
And it really burned Luxon…
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon took a knock to his personal rating with his net favourability score dropping 13 points to -5 percent.
That was below Labour leader Chris Hipkins whose net favourability jumped 4 points to hit 3 percent.
The scientific poll surveyed 1000 people over three days last week and has a maximum margin-of-error of +/- 3.1 percent.
It captures the response to the coalition’s first Budget where National delivered its promised tax cuts but broke its commitment to fund 13 cancer treatments from this year.
…we forget that in our post Covid bitterness against Jacinda for having the temerity to save 20 000 lives, we elected a 3 headed beast without actually understanding what that would amount to.
People are watching this cavalcade of spite and malice passing as social policy in shock and horror at what we’ve elected.
For the right wing fanatics at the fringes, the extremism is exciting and righteous.
To everyone else it’s demented and cruel.
We haven’t had a seriously ideological Government since Ruth Richardson!
John Key wasn’t ideological, he was an uber pragmatist and ended up being more Socialist than Helen Clarke and despite Jacinda’s promise of transformation, the truth was she was a cautious centrist!
We often mocked Jacinda’s kindness mantra, but nothing scared the Christ out of a Government Agency more than their policy or service being branded as ‘unkind’.
An entire Generation of Kiwis have lived under a State they believed was there to help them.
That is no longer the case.
We have a hard right racist climate denying beneficiary bashing Government that pretends to be moderate when it’s far fucking from it!
We grew accustomed to a State that used carrots, we now have a Government of sticks which will be used to beat the snot out of you.
The extremism of this Government is driven by unique forces that are uncontrollable.
Luxon was a CEO, NONE of his skill set works in the current position he is in.
NOTHING in his CEO experience would give him the skills to work Winston and Seymour.
Say what you want about Seymour and Winston, but they are masters of the game at the heights of their power and they are chewing up and spitting out Luxon every single month.
This narrative of weakness keeps pushing Luxon to out butch Winston and Seymour which only makes him look weaker.
The electorate are regretting the last election and are looking for alternatives.
Labour, the Greens and the Māori Party have to be that alternative.
Sadly, the governing parties being useless does nothing to enhance the opposition’s abilities and capabilities.
True. Luxon is extraordinarily bad. Unfortunately that does make soggy chip any better.
The last election was a complete mess in terms of which bunch of incompetents to give your vote to.
If you are a non-tribal voter it was the most depressing line-up in as long as I’ve been voting. Uninspiring, divisive and just depressing especially when it became obvious that Winston was going to play a major part, and the leaders of the two major parties were as talented as navel lint.
I expect these polls are going to be all over the place for the foreseeable future until the inevitable implosion happens on the left or the right.
I think Winston and David are very happy with Luxon as leader.
Imagine how much better Labour could do if they didn’t have Chris H as Leader.
Why Luxon didn’t rule Winston out is beyond me, and Hipkins clutching onto the reins of power just shows that he’s just another career politician. At least Andrew Little seemed to want to do the right thing and not just look at his self interest.
I agree Winston and Jones are a millstone around his neck .Their racism and backward environmental message is against the lead set in Key’s era
Labour is lucky to have Chip. His colleagues are not people with skills.
Jacinda kindness. culture had the police soft on gangs and young offenders and KO soft on bad tenants (thousands of complaints only 13 evictions)
Another turn off was the underhanded way their government attempted to bring in cogovernment through 3 Waters . And other moves.This move backfired and alienated both phakha and Maori.
When this was exposed and rejected by the people Jacinda jumped ship before she was pushed
what a crock ,hows ya new water deal going are looking foward to the sale of water to overseas pension funds next year ?
Key created all our problems by way of his economic vandalism by way of rampant immigration.
Ardern exposed this and knew there was no miracle cure as much as she tried.
Ardern couldn’t see further than 24 hours. She was a hopeless failure.
Thankfully your opinion is woefully wrong.
Luxon can’t see further than 24 hours. he is a hopeless failure.
There FIFY
“Alienated Maori ”
What a joke Trevor have a look at the carnage this right wing racist government is doing. You never saw Maori protesting in the streets over 3 waters but you did see the red neck farmers supported by National and ACTs rhetoric drive.
As this government becomes increasingly unpopular Winston will have to walk well before the next election to distance himself from weak Luxon. Or would the right to keep the show going make him PM?
Despite this if the taxpayers union were neutral they’d hold the government to account, they’re not, they are an offshoot of right wing politics. The fact they are showing a slump for National that things are much much worse than they look. The government is a separatist government which is why the country is fighting back. We will see a change of government next election such is the extent of their corruption.
Indeed. The Taxpayer’s Union and ACT Party are more interested in abolishing age of consent laws than increasing the efficiency of government spending.
What do you expect Nathan (Greens @ 12.7%) with all the attacks on our environment and Freddy the frog.
Not a bad analysis Martyn except for one piece of fiction ..’The scientific poll surveyed 1000 people over three days last week and has a maximum margin-of-error of +/- 3.1 percent.’ Statistical bullshit from TPU’s Curia nonsense poll.
$46m in foreign aid for the Pacific Region.
Let’s just spend it at home
It’s all just bribes to try and get Pacific Islanders to refuse legitimate business investments from China. Doubly disgusting
Mass exodus of kiwis moving to Australia because of the National governments policies creating recession. The last time it was this high, 2012 another National government. The evidence doesn’t lie unlike this government. People have lost all hope under this government.
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