BOOM – TDB told you, this hard right racist climate denying beneficiary bashing Government has spooked the fuck out of the electorate!
A new Government 5 months into power is gone!
National – 36
Labour – 30
Greens – 14
ACT – 7
NZ First – 4
Māori Party – 4
The internal polling from Labour this weekend has
National – 34
Labour – 33
Greens – 12
ACT – 7
NZF – 6
Māori Party – 4
Why?
Exactly the dynamics that TDB argued would happen are happening.
Most National voters voted National in the hope their house price would go up 10%, what they have in fact got is the most right wing Government ever passing culture war revenge fantasies as social policy!
The danger for this hard right racist climate denying beneficiary bashing Government is that they haven’t even implemented their own agenda yet and it is FAR worse than anything that has been announced!
THIS was the reason National suddenly sacked Melissa Lee and Penny Simmonds last week because the internals warned National this had happened.
NZ First apologist platform The Democracy Project and all the other right wing media Trolls claimed Luxon was tough, when really it was a knee-jerk move of panic!
What’s the lesson?
Stick with TDB, not The Democracy Project.
The real meltdown in this Government will happen the moment the realities of the austerity budget kicks in.
Watch as NZ First and ACT panic. They appeal to the polarised fringes, and the polarised fringes scare the shit out of the middle!
Kiwis are not as cruel or malicious as the Right’s Culture War Trolls or their Political representatives think they are.
We are a better people than this Government is.
Losing so much support in such a short time is unique and it speaks to the limitations of corrosive revenge policy to a voting culture who are very centrist and fair.
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I think it’s pretty sad. You would have hoped that the likes of Shane Jones, Costello and Hoggard (in fact most of ACT) would have had NZF and ACT tumbling. The same could be said about Luxon, Brown, and Bishop. I guess that speaks to how unappealing the opposition parties are.
Polls don’t matter 2 and half years from the next election. Anything could happen between now and then.
Yes…true….like there is every likely hood that they will be gone before the three years is up.
Looking at the sheer stupidity of what they have coming down the pipeline for everyday New Zealanders i’m picking an early election at the 20 month mark…if not before!
The left is tracking up, and the right tracking down. This is a good jumping off point for Labour heading into the next 2.5 years. A lot better than the Key years when National would constiently poll at ~50%
It is only one poll. But … it is a pretty big turn around in only 6 months. You also assume this government will last a full term (with Winston & Seymour nipping at each other and Luxon it is plausible that an early election may be called – especially when Winston’s time as DPM comes to an end) … which is unlikely if the current trend continues (that is, the right haemorrhaging support)
Good job. Biggest challenge is to keep up the momentum. Labour needs to go harder.
Clusterfuxon and the ‘Coalition of Chaos’ don’t have a fucking clue and it’s laughable when Luxon keeps trotting out his tired old lines about how he won’t be lectured to by Chris Hipkins on how to run a country like he and Seymour and Peters are oh soooo superior.
Their ‘stop everything’ approach is turning into a financial disaster of epic proportions.
A $ 200million dollar penalty for pulling the plug on the essential inter sland ferry contract just for starters.
Hundreds of civil contractors around the country sitting around twiddling their thumbs.
Tax cuts for millionaire property owners while essential services are being cut.
Oh yeah…Clusterfuxon reeeaaallly knows what he’s doing c’os he’s just sooooo experienced!!!!
200. Million lose is better than a 3billion debt. Just one of the hard calls this government has had to make and these are unpopular with some
You forgot that you would actually have boats that work Trevor. You are so National it’s easy to see how we are in such a mess as a country
Idiot Trevor. The word is loss. The loss is to the tourism industry alongside the freighting industry and connection to the South Island. Anyone with any fiscal nous knows this will be well over a 3 billion loss, all told.
Wait till a ferry sinks or all 3 breakdown at the same time you knob.
You forgot a few matters, Grant….. like: a health system crumbling exponentially now that CigaReti is in charge; a police force that’s emigrating to Oz daily because Mumbling Mark Mitchell won’t even give them a teachers’ wage (and police put their lives on the line daily); road-makers in their hundreds ready to go to work but no shovel-ready projects so they’re emigrating too; with ultimate, crucial decisions in the hands of Bishop, Brown and Dr Porn Pork it spells disaster fore democracy; a deputy PM that is giving Joe Biden a run to see who’s first to get to the retirement village care centre; and a PM who constantly and repetitively trots out inane one-liners (the election was so last year – did you forget?); to say nothing of the forthcoming race-war that 7aa is in dire danger of starting; and so it goes on and on and on And all the while the planet is slowly but surely burning and the current clods are only encouraging it!
These latest polls are far too generous to this so-called ‘government’.
The Police shouldn’t compare their wages with degree qualified Teachers & Nurses, and instead use a comparison with the Army. Both Police & Miltary have similar levels of training & involve personal risk, but a Police officer is generally better paid than a soldier.
Not a surprise at all.
Lol
I know KCCO, National are a laughing stock!
Good on you Trevor, keep flying the flag. Will you be happy when Benson And Hedges Bishop and his other 2 mates want to build a road through your section. It won’t be a hospital or a school. These guys have no social conscience. Just looking after their mates is the priority. Don’t imagine you are on the list.
I went to donate some food to our local food bank today and the lady in charge told me they have no money since covid donations and government help has dried up. She said more working people are coming in for help and many are embarrassed and have found it hard to ask for help. I was saddened to hear this. And I have a mortgage and I am not rich but I told her I will try and donate as much as I can. I already donate to three other charities but given this food bank is in my local community I feel I need to help. Growing up in the 60s we got help with subsidised mutton, milk, fruit in schools, 2 cent hot chocolate in winter. We has school dental clinics, plunket, a family doctor but now it’s everyman for himself what is becoming of our country. I don’t like seeing people without a decent roof over their head and no food,we were brought up to share food. Now winter is coming sad
Somewhere there is an unused pile of psych meds.
Calm down chaps, most people are disengaged with politics this stage of the cycle, it’s a tad early to predict the second coming of Hipkins.
While it is good to see the current coc dropping in support the idea of Labour sleepwalking to victory is not something to get excited about. We all need to make hard decisions that involve putting self aside however most people find it easier to be critical of others while ignoring their own faults.
I see that we need a better & bigger government which obviously needs a reliable level of support & income but there does not seem to be the voter support or suitable politicians available to actually achieve that ambition.
David Seymour was never elected by the majority yet there he is making majority decisions. Mark my words the backbenchers will soon be in revolt with these so called co leaders get the popcorn watch this space.
Hilarious watching mainstream press attributing these results as down to “incumbency” and continued inflation etc etc as opposed to shock at manic destruction of govt. services and democracy.
C’mon Chippy, off to the GG and tell her you can form a new govt. Or don’t you know what a man is either.
Well it’s certain not Luxon Ann E.
And you would know what a man is because you are one?
Amusing that the left deliberately misgender as an insult, but do it to them and it’s a hate crime or even genocide.
Complex alright.
Not yet. That will come when transhumanism is more advanced. Shouldn’t take too many more years – transgenderism is but the first step and that’s so en vogue now. Hadn’t you realised?
It seems like this is the obverse side of the culture war paradigm- when dealing with material needs, put meeting them before some eccentric populist nostrum of interest only to social or cultural conservatives. If I were Luxon, I’d ask myself ‘Eep! Can I really afford to pander to ACT and have the Opposition relentlessly raise the spectre of a nine million dollar (+) vanity populist referendum because of their animus against biculturalism?’ …and… “So what do I to do even things out with New Zealand First, in that case?” But he won’t, of course. That would mean standing up to his coalition partners.
All I can say is, thank goodness we have a three year term.
If only we had a one year term we could be rid of these gob shites now.
I see quite a few commenters have pooh-hood the poll as a “rogue poll” and a one off. Were these the same commenters who ignored the polls leading up to the last election? That says it all about how much notice we should take from them!
The fact remains that less than six months in, and the wheels have fallen off this government. No other government in the last 40 years has had such a disastrous start. That must mean something to any same observer; you can bet your bottom dollar that it does to Luxon. He’s staring down the inevitability of a one term government without the possibility of return while he leads. That simple fact will affect how he deals with Peters and Seymour. Behind the scenes, they are going to get told bluntly – pull your fucking horns in or we go to a snap election – and you both know what that means for your parties – political oblivion.
That said, watch the next budget which will be heavily influenced by this poll and the next one.
Best you don’t google up the latest Roy Morgan poll which for some reason didn’t get any press.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/nz-national-voting-intention-april-2024?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MRU%2030th%20April%202024&utm_content=MRU%2030th%20April%202024+CID_9d969be87ac2fe6ae2f1b7fad8306afd&utm_source=Market%20Research%20Update&utm_term=Read%20Full%20Article
You are quite right. What is interesting is that the most support comes from pale, stale, old males. The evidence shows that older men like the 80s and 90s style of government and aren’t particularly worried about the environment or our future.
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