Latest Roy Morgan shows massive collapse and threatens to trigger Chippy Coup Countdown

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
94
3024

Jesus wept the latest Roy Morgan Poll has shown a massive collapse in right track/wrong track, the lowest since NZ went into lockdown!

That’s a 17 point month on month plunge driven by women who have freaked out at the extremism of this new hard right racist climate denying beneficiary bashing Government.

Only old men think the country is going in the right direction.

We call these voters, ‘Culture War Boomers’, or ‘Trotters’.

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So only old men think the country is going ion the right direction while the majority of women don’t.

When you get sudden and severe number shocks like this, it is a foreshadowing of looming change.

In these numbers we see the right stepping away from NZ First and ACT back to National but the bigger story is how little Chippy has managed to capitalise on a sudden move like that.

National – 38

ACT – 11.5

NZF – 6.5

Labour – 23

Green – 13.5

MP – 3.5

Labour went up 1.5 but the Greens dropped 2.

Cannibalising the Left vote won’t beat this Government.

There is a deep rumbling inside the Labour Caucus with many very frustrated at the lack of actual left wing economic positions.

Chippy has inherited the exact same incremental caution that doomed Grant and Jacinda from being Transformational, yet it is that caution that Labour need to sell to soft National voters if they want to beat this Government.

Chippy needs to sell a radical tax plan and vision of the NZ State in a way that can appeal to those soft National voters without spooking them WHILE appeasing his own left wing Labour supporters who at this stage feel like depressed Warriors fans who keep telling themselves, ‘this is our year, this is our year, this is our year’ endlessly while screaming ‘Up the wahs’ at every passing car.

Labour should be reaping an enormous political harvest from a 17 point collapse in right track/wrong track but they aren’t.

Currently every time Chippy appears on The Platform, he loses another 1000 female voters.

If Labour can’t capitalise on a 17 point plunge in confidence, they need to go home for a cup of tea and a lie down.

How can they be losing to these venal, spiteful and malicious muppets?

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94 COMMENTS

  1. Luxon, Seymour and Winston have personal vendettas that are better than purposeful speeches about who was secound best at the last election.

    Now what is the opposite of first place well its a sausage roll. You wanna beat these guys you have to repudiate all of it while some how keeping trans rights, Maori rights and free palastine. Apparently thanks to swing voting woman.

    The sour cunt in me reckons all men shouldn’t vote and let these wonderful examples of feminism and power and interlect fuck it all up or we can agree that.

    1) Transvestites do not believe that they posses the bodys of the opposite sex rather they believe that they where born in the wrong body.

    2) Maori and the Crown agreed to a partnership

    3) All murder is wrong.

    I didn’t want to upset everyone by talking about all the debt New Zealand is in while Luxon, Seymour, Winston and Chippie creep around all the cheap hotels. Yknow I guess Jane Kelsey was right. These trade deals ain’t worth shit.

    Some poor sand muncher in the red sea is just collateral I suppose. Now we have to plan for the greatest democratic exercise New Zealand has ever embarked on – apply make up to gang members.

    • Trans rights are no greater than anyone else’s. They do not include the right to invade women’s spaces, cheat at sports, or construe failure to kowtow as some kind of new heresy. Until Labour understands this, they abandon a substantial chunk of votes – which they ought to understand at least – since moral argument goes right over their echoingly empty heads.

      • It’s not a moral argument like I’m not saying that tranny therapy is good or bad and neither am I or anyone else going to enforce a ban on tranny therapy. Trans is a thing fucking deal with it so we can construct a coherent set of rights and responsibilities.

        We are not going to kill people because they are trans.

        We are not going to convince them to change there ways.

        We are going to provide leadership. Safety and confidence or whatever.

  2. How can they be losing to these venal, spiteful and malicious muppets?

    Chris Hipkins, is New Zealand’s version of Keir Starmer.

    The only difference is the UK Tories are so terrible Starmer can’t lose.

    Unfortunately for us we may have to go through one more electoral cycle before our Tories reach those depths,
    The only ray of light from this scenario, is by that time Hipkins should be well gone.

    • I just can’t see a giant in among the Labour Party. Internal promotions and leadership spills won’t do it they need a Giant.

    • Even the Left has given up on Labour and concedes we’ll have at least two terms of National & ACT. Not exactly optimistic.

    • Sir Kier Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner are the real deal and have had lives outside of politics.

      Chippy was a student politician and that’s about it.

      I’m sure he has all the right intentions and entered politics to make a difference but if he’s the answer we’re asking the wrong questions

      • Starmer was a lawyer, rising to director of public prosecutions before he entered parliament. He wasnt some cloth capped coal miner in Nottinghamshire.

        Rayner used to be a care worker before entering parliament, and is unafraid to call out the Tories. But she has certain views that are problematic.

        Keir’s Labour is going to be Tory-lite, though will possibly be (a little bit) more to the left than Tony Blair.

        Having said that, it will be fun watching the Tories getting routed this year.

        • “But she has certain views that are problematic.”
          In other words, she has real left-wing views – unlike Starmer, who is just another Blairite.

      • Yeah Kief Stalin is the real deal if you want another decade of tory rule even after the actual tories have destroyed themselves…

      • A real traitor who knowing used fake antisemitism claims to oust a principle leader.

        Starmer is one of Trump’s kind – a self-serving liar.

  3. I think this government is so awful that most people are actually shell shocked. We have three leaders in the headlines separately on a daily basis with another anti something somewhere. The left better be organized behind closed doors ( only Chloe Swabrick in the in girl these days ). When this government breaks it will be massive. They are all on a tightrope we never see the three of them together so the animosity is there. I think the saying “give them enough rope” is very apt. Luxon sees us as a business unfortunately his business model is flawed and the most vulnerable will be collateral damage.

    • You are right, we are shell-shocked, we’re over-whelmed at the nastiness and cruelty of it. If it felt like they were competent and going to improve things we’d have patience, but it doesn’t feel like that.

      Can we be sure Luxon ran his last company well? Who says? And as many try to say, we are not a business and having lots of collateral damage is not running a country successfully and well.

      Why is a minor player like Seymour getting so much say. Where’s the education minister? He’s not a well-known child and educational expert. Where is someone with actual experience in the education sector and parenting who knows the realities? Having been to school yourself, does not make you an expert.

      As someone noted all 3 so-called leaders have axes to grind and scores to settle. That’s no way to run a country.

  4. I disagree. There is no need for a sudden lurch to the left. It would make Labour look desperate. Hipkins is a canny politician. He will work inside the Labour movement to turn the ship. The very last thing Labour needs is another series of internal power struggles.

  5. The Trotters and baby Trotters are all getting there news from the Platform now that news hub is finished. That’s why Chippy is flirting with t platform.

  6. It is because the people who voted the incumbents in are “venal, spiteful and malicious muppets”

  9. Unfortunately current government appear competent vs the previous government which appeared incompetent in the news narrative. And then at the end of their term they hadn’t bedded in the changes they did make. Even right voters looked at their mandate and were like if you can’t do something beneficial with that your actually incompetent.

    How is that perception and fact going to be changed. Incumbents lose elections and after the next three years of recession and service slashing their could be change but only if there is a viable alternative. How can that happen if Chip believes its all just tidal.

    • Yeah could not believe he said that. How bloody hopeless and clueless he is. Doesn’t he believe in anything?? Why oh why was he chosen as leader.

  11. “Lies dammed lies and statistics”; extremely viewed these figures show that only 17% would vote for a party that have said they will tax the wealthy to pay for services and replace dilapidated infrastructure.
    We get what we vote for – retaining the neoliberal status quo!

    • He just doesn’t like being defied. Those school children learnt far more yesterday than they would have at school.
      Seymour doesn’t want a well-educated, well-informed population. He wants people who are too scared to think for themselves. That suits his purpose much better.

  13. I think the real question is how long the current cobbled together coalition can last. Seymour and Peters are overly enamoured of anglo-australian conservative populism, but after Boris Johnson made a dog’s breakfast of the Covid-19 pandemic and reignited the latent factional chaos within the Tories as a consequence, the UK Labour Opposition is leading their Tories by about twenty points. YouGov and SkyNews UK (!!!) estimate that the consequent electoral wipeout facing the Sunak regime will be worse than under John Major in 1997. I know, I know, I have grave reservations about Keir Starmer too, but anything’s better than the current retinue of time serving neoliberal apparatchiks in Downing Street.

    They need to face facts. Indulging authoritarian populist culture war drivel at a time of cost of living crisis is asking for electoral trouble. I mean, take the ACT call for a Treaty Principles Bill referendum for instance. What, nine million dollars for a vanity referendum at a time when this coalition is attacking public health, education and welfare spending? Good luck with that. And I’m afraid that if they delay a referendum on four year terms, it’ll get linked with the desire to punish the current regime.

    As for blaming Chris Hipkins for everything, oh come on!!! The nonparliamentary Left needs to properly organise, strategise and build a mass movement for a Capital Gains Tax before we can expect Labour to make that policy objective concrete. So far, it has failed to do so. Perhaps Labour does need a new leader. Or perhaps as a whole, the Left needs to wake up, strategise and plan properly for 2026.

  14. Look, I’m getting fairly tired of people blaming Labour for not introducing a Capital Gains Tax when it was and is the nonparliamentary Left that needed to do its homework, properly strategise, set up a mass movement for change and move the tax policy debate leftwards instead of leaving that policy debate to the Taxpayers Union, New Zealand Initiative, ACT ad nauseum. Mass movements and evidence-based arguments fuel social and economic change. Public opinion may be on our side on that issue, but focus and strategy need to happen first, people!

    As for the Labour is no better argument, MMP means that there’s always the Greens and Te Pati Maori to consider. If ACT and New Zealand First can inflict authoritarian populist culture wars on us now, watch out when the pendulum swings back. We need to think about how to make it do so.

  15. Labours problem is not just an incompent leader and a legacy of talk and not do, it is who now is their constituency?
    Is it the traditional worker who gets out of bed at 6am to be at work at 7 works 5 days recieves 3.5 days pay, with the other 1.5 days going in tax. Tax which is given to his beneficiary neighbour who for what ever reason does not get out of bed to go to work.
    Each of these people have different expectations of Labour, expectations which are incompatible. Lower tax or more benefit
    The worker increasingly see Seymore, rightly or wrongly as their champion, while the beneficiary sees Swarbrick as the answer.
    So just who now are Labours people?
    Only the woke, rainbow and those people employed by the Government?

    • “The worker increasingly see Seymore, rightly or wrongly as their champion, ”

      You can’t make this shit up!

      • Not made up Squeaky.
        Go to a working mans pub on a friday night and LISTEN to what is being said.
        I suggest you will be astounded!
        The working man has left Labour.

        • What a stupid comment, at a working mans pub they are saying what a crazy government we have, previously they said we need a change of government, now they’re ssying they got it wrong.

          Perhaps the hotel you visit in Epsom see it differently.

    • And weighing in from the neo-nazi corner. Cliffordj

      Arbeit macht frei

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbeit_macht_frei

      Just like the German Nazis, who plastered the words Arbeit macht frei over their concentration camp gates, Just like the German Nazis blamed unemployment in Germany on the unemployed, indolent Jews and Gypsies and communists to lazy to work. Cliffordj blames the unemployed for unemployment.

      “….the traditional worker who gets out of bed at 6am to be at work at 7 works 5 days recieves 3.5 days pay, with the other 1.5 days going in tax. Tax which is given to his beneficiary neighbour who for what ever reason does not get out of bed to go to work.
      Each of these people have different expectations of Labour, expectations which are incompatible. Lower tax or more benefit”       cliffordj

      What this nasty little ACT supporter Cliffordj doesn’t mention, is that the Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr touted increased unemployment as an alleged cure for inflation. And implemented policies to make it happen.

      Adrian Orr: Beating inflation will mean higher unemployment
      By Liam Dann
      NZ Herald 26 Oct, 2022 09:35 PM, 5 mins to read

      https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/adrian-orr-beating-inflation-will-mean-higher-unemployment/WO3WLQQUGWEC5NVK3AQTR2BN5A/

      • And you.Pat totaly miss my point.
        The working man has left Labour, you and your like need to come to grips with why.
        Beating up on those that state reality is not solving Labours problem, just ensuring they stay in the wilderness for longer.

      • Careful Pat Oh dear – too much passing talk of german events is a waste of real ammunition – we might get close to them and then want to quote them – but not yet.

    • Most tax is spent on health, education, superannuation & benefits are well down the list so your working man is obviously uneducated as well which I guess is how you like people to be so that they believe your lies.

  16. Hipkins is electable even though he achieved little as minister of everything. Swarbrick is a threat to Labour but the Greens are only interested in the environment in the six weeks before an election. Parker is the man with brains but he probably doesn’t want to be in power with the Greens.

  17. Personally, I would wait for more polls in the coming few months before commenting on Labour’s post 2023 election performance.

  18. There is plenty wrong with Labour – I don’t think I’ll ever vote for them again.

    But running attack articles against them on the basis of polling, when they’re not within a year of regaining power isn’t helping. It’s the kind of thing Rupert Murdoch would do.

Comments are closed.