NZ Politics Daily: 13 September 2023

PREFU
Matthew Hooton: Tax cuts now completely insane
Thomas Coughlan (Herald): Labour and National share points over Treasury’s Prefu forecasts with austere times ahead (paywalled)
Max Rashbrooke (Spinoff): Do we really want a government that spends only enough to ‘keep the lights on’?
Luke Malpass (Post): Prefu, the election and New Zealand’s troubled waters ahead (paywalled)
Jenée Tibshraeny (Herald): Prefu reveals state of the books: The next government faces tough economic trade-offs (paywalled)
Pattrick Smellie (BusinessDesk): Prefu: Looking behind the curtain can be unsettling (paywalled)
Jem Traylen (BusinessDesk): Business of Government: Prefu past and present, Hughes next? and more … (paywalled)
Richard Harman (Politik): To cut or not to cut (paywalled)
Brad Olsen (Post): The lights stay on, but there will be no home improvements (paywalled)
Tom Pullar-Strecker (Post): Treasury’s forecast ‘about as bad as expected’ and that’s if all goes to plan (paywalled)
Marc Daalder (Newsroom): State of the economy in the eye of the beholder
Luke Malpass (Post): PREFU: It’s now a question of credibility for everyone (paywalled)
Felix Desmarais (1News): The Prefu fallout: ‘Better than expected’ or a ‘destructive legacy’
Craig Renney (Post): Data shows need for better conversation about spending (paywalled)
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): Prefu, Befu and what it means for your interest rates
Michael Reddell: Pretend fiscal policy and immaculate disinflation
Robert Robert MacCulloch: NZ’s Big News Story should be “Treasury Pre-Election Update shows plummeting consumption per capita”
Liam Hehir (the Blue Review): In the Land of the Long Dark Cloud
John Weekes (Herald): Former PM recalls wild and wobbly times spawning Prefu, an ‘important part of our democracy’ (paywalled)
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Dan Brunskill (Interest): Treasury’s pre-election update shows little room for new spending, as National finalises its fiscal plan
Felix Desmarais (1News): Prefu: Economy ‘holding its own’ – Grant Robertson
RNZ: Country paying high price for Labour ‘mismanagement’ of economy – David Seymour
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): New Government financial update prompts anger from Opposition, Greens call for wealth tax
Amelia Wade (Newshub): New financial update leads to war of words between Government, Opposition
Brent Edwards (NBR): Opposition parties slam Labour’s fiscal and economic management (paywalled)
Thomas Manch (Post): Government books deteriorate further but migration a silver lining for businesses (paywalled)
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Pattrick Smellie (BusinessDesk): Immigration to the rescue – again (paywalled)
Giles Dexter (RNZ): Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update release, government books in better shape than expected
Dan Brunskill (Interest): PREFU: Future governments will have a very tight budget
Felix Desmarais (1News): Prefu: Government books opened ahead of election
Marc Daalder (Newsroom): Recession to end but Govt surplus delayed a year
Bridie Witton (Stuff): Economy slowing with Treasury also forecasting inflation to stay higher for longer
Paul McBeth (BusinessDesk): Deficit blows out this year; surplus delayed for a year (paywalled)

IMMIGRATION
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): Immigration ‘could hit 100,000 new arrivals in a year’: Here’s what that means
Rob Stock (Stuff): Migration boom hits new high, but record number of New Zealand citizens leave country
RNZ: Record migration gains as more people take up work visas

ELECTION, POLLiNG
Guardian: Guardian Essential New Zealand poll: Winston Peters in position to become election kingmaker
Richard Prebble (Herald): Christopher Luxon, Chris Hipkins leaders debate will be campaign’s pivotal moment (paywalled)
Gordon Campbell: On Seymour acting up, and Labour’s lost cause
Jenna Lynch (Newshub): Newshub-Reid Research poll: Labour’s big pledge of free dental isn’t moving the dial for voters
Chris Knox and Thomas Coughlan (Herald): Poll of polls shows Labour’s chances evaporating, National’s soaring (paywalled)
Glenn McConnell (Stuff): Stuff’s Rolling Poll: A few thousand voters could have a dramatic impact
Lloyd Burr (Newshub): Can Chris Hipkins and Labour recover from devastating Newshub-Reid Research poll?
Audrey Young (Herald): Even an economic miracle can’t save Labour now (paywalled)
Greg Presland (The Standard): The silver lining of last night’s poll
Liu Chen (RNZ): Beyond tokenism: Tackling the Chinese community’s poor representation in NZ politics
John Minto (Daily Blog): “Pills, Powder and Smoke” – drug policy for Election 2023
RNZ: Photos from the campaign trail, Tuesday 12 September

NATIONAL
Richard Shaw (The Conversation): After the election, Christopher Luxon’s real test could come from his right – not the left
Karl du Fresne: Matthew Hooton on Christopher Luxon
William Hewett (Newshub): Christopher Luxon warns Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment could see 30pct cut under National
RNZ: Kāinga Ora: Unruly tenants don’t deserve privilege of state house – Chris Bishop
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): So National’s social housing plan is to kick tenants out making them homeless while ACT builds the prisons?

ACT
Adam Pearse (Herald): Minigolf with Act’s David Seymour – he’s found love and a new base (paywalled)
Miriam Bell (Post): Here’s the problem with ACT’s plan to scrap consents for building insurance (paywalled)
Spinoff: Young Act has all the answers

LABOUR
Mihingarangi Forbes (RNZ): Mata: Episode 18: An interview with Labour Leader Chris Hipkins
Toby Manhire (Spinoff): Chris Hipkins enters the last chance saloon
David Williams (Newsroom): Labour bares teeth on campaign trail
John MacDonald (Newstalk ZB): The springtime chill in the air for Labour
1News: No action taken over Labour MP’s flyer – ASA
Tova O’Brien (Stuff): Advertising watchdog dismisses complaint against Labour Northcote MP

NZ FIRST
RNZ: Winston Peters unconcerned he might stir up anti-Māori feeling
Martyn Bradbury (Waatea News): Winston’s indigenous folly

ELECTORATES, REGIONS
RNZ: Northland electorate poll predicts clear defeat for Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime
Marc Daalder (Newsroom): Willis looks to end 39-year blue drought in Ōhāriu
Giles Dexter (RNZ): Auckland Central clash: Chlöe Swarbrick’s bid for history and the two candidates trying to unseat her
The Hui (Newshub): The Hui panel dissects Waiariki debate between Labour’s Toni Boynton and Te Pāti Māori’s Rawiri Waititi
RNZ: A visit to the birthplace of the Labour party, as it tanks in the polls
Leonard Powell (RNZ): Access to dental services, more teachers: Ruatoria on the election
Shanti Mathias (Spinoff): The fight for the farming heartland of Rangitata

LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Hamish McNeilly (Stuff): New Dunedin deputy mayor announced after shock resignation
RNZ: Dunedin mayor Jules Radich undermined council with off-the-cuff comments, councillor says
RNZ: Gore District Council scraps review into dysfunction
1News: Gore District Council drops independent inquiry over leadership stoush
Laura Smith (Local Democracy Reporting): Rotorua Lakes Council chief executive Geoff Williams retires with mayor’s backing
No Right Turn: Unlawful secrecy in Rotorua II
Maia Hart (Local Democracy Reporting): Councillor refuses to declare conflict of interest due to research centre role

HOUSING
Paul Hunt: Chief Human Rights Commissioner: Communities have responsibilities for state housing (paywalled)
RNZ: The Detail: Landlords versus tenants
Geraden Cann (Stuff): Mega Landlords: 10% rise in properties owned by trusts in less than two years
Cameron Smith (Herald): Auckland’s rental squeeze: Desperate prospective tenants resort to bribes (paywalled)
Geraden Cann (Stuff): Mega Landlords: The property king and queen of Ōpōtiki

HEALTH
Ruth Hill (RNZ): ‘Covid is not done with us’: Coronavirus and the ongoing impact on immunity
Hannah Martin (Stuff): Doctors’ strike: ‘Woeful’ understaffing has ‘life and death consequences’ – ED doc
Phil Pennington (RNZ): Fears, frustrations and critical risks highlighted in report on Hawke’s Bay hospital
James Perry (Whakaata Māori): Rheumatic fever rates on the rise, Māori and Pasifika affected most
Eda Tang (Stuff): Government pulls plug on funding for Auckland-based rangatahi mental health programme

CLIMATE CHANGE
Olivia Wannan (Stuff): Climate policy detail: Managed retreat to avoid climate risks
Olivia Wannan (Stuff): Climate policy detail: Agricultural emissions
Olivia Wannan (Stuff): Climate policy detail: Public transport
Olivia Wannan (Stuff): Climate policy detail: Oil and gas exploration
Olivia Wannan (Stuff): Climate policy detail: Lake Onslow power station and alternative
Olivia Wannan (Stuff): Climate policy detail: Unlimited tree planting
Olivia Wannan (Stuff): Climate policy detail: The Clean Car Standard
Olivia Wannan (Stuff): Climate policy detail: EV discounts (aka the ‘ute tax’ or feebate)
Olivia Wannan (Stuff): Climate policy detail: E-bikes and e-scooters
Olivia Wannan (Stuff): Climate policy detail: Home insulation and heating
Olivia Wannan (Stuff): Climate policy detail: The ‘GIDI’ fund (or boiler-swapping subsidies)
Baz Macdonald (Re:News): Are we acting like we’re in a climate emergency?
Amanda Bulman (Newsroom): How to solve a problem like Napier
Stuff: Restore Passenger Rail protester Rosemary Penwarden granted bail
James Cockle (Plain Sight): Rail protesters on side of rule of law

TRANSPORT
Oliver Lewis (BusinessDesk): Transport funding risks abound (paywalled)
Brianna Mcilraith (Stuff): Air New Zealand expects significant schedule changes amid engine issues
Matthew Scott (Newsroom): Waiheke residents ‘marooned’ by ferry route exemption
Todd Niall (Stuff): Auckland’s new electric buses to go up a level – double deckers

EDUCATION
Gianina Schwanecke (Post): Election Watch: The future of tertiary education (paywalled)
Melania Watson (Newshub): Students in Wellington call for debt-free living costs outside Grant Robertson’s office
Alice Wilson (Herald): No child should be left out in the cold on literacy (paywalled)

CRIME
Marty Sharpe (Stuff): Defendants on serious charges among those to get $75 Prezzy Cards to attend meetings
Zane Small (Newshub): Gang members breaching home detention with no further penalty on the rise
The Facts: 4:1 Kiwis want the ‘Three Strikes Law’ brought back (except Green voters)
Newshub: Labour’s Ginny Andersen says National pretending to be ‘tough on crime’

OTHER
Charlotte Graham-McLay (Guardian): Wellington divided as Peter Jackson land purchase halts housing plan
Rebecca Stevenson (Interest): Hush money? NZ banks offer financial settlements to scammed customers if they agree not to talk about it
David Hargreaves (Interest): Higher fuel prices help drive Kiwis’ card spending
Eric Crampton (BusinessDesk): Reserve Bank credibility in question over ‘blackballing’ of experts (paywalled)
Madison Reidy (Herald): ‘Doesn’t make sense’ – Super Fund CEO’s departing wish
Liam Hehir (The Blue Review): Mahuta raises eyebrows with 9/11 tweet