New TU Poll: NZF out, ACT/National Government knife-edge

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
63
3266

National: 35

Labour: 26.5

ACT: 14.3

Green: 12.7

NZ First: 3.9%

- Sponsor Promotion -

Māori Party: 2.9 

The Right wing Media tell you a National/ACT victory is a formality, National’s Tax policy which is stealing from 2 year olds, public transport and climate budgets for rich landlords certainly tells you National aren’t even pretending to hide who they are because they are convinced voters hating Labour is enough.

Truth is the entire election is on a knife edge.

NZF aren’t doing what they should be doing suggesting Winston’s lurch to the anti vaxx is deeply off putting.

There Greens have found a secret strategy of being slightly less ball less than Labour and because Labour are so spineless, it’s working for them!

Maori Party are set to generate an overhang.

Labour needs to do better in the campaign.

Whoever wins, Labour/Greens/MP vs ACT/National – it will be by one MP.

That’s how close the election actually is.

It ain’t over until the fat bigger sings!

Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.

If you can’t contribute but want to help, please always feel free to share our blogs on social media

63 COMMENTS

  2. A National and ACT government will give us a world without public services, pay rises, unions, rest breaks, evolution in schools and civil rightd.

    • As opposed to the bullshit Maori ‘science’ spruiked in schools now thanks to the ginga minga PM during his term as education minister?

      • That is fake news. Anyway, NACT want Evangalical Protestant Pentecostal Lutherians to run our schools, which will teach kids that the etheral father of some dead carpenter in Palestine (some drunk Roman soldier probably) created all of life on earth 6000 years ago, and that holding hands makes girls pregnant,.

        Also from the looks of, they want to give state housing to the likes of Destiny Church, so you get kicked out if you are gay and stuff.

      • Dont worry, when National have ripped the guts out of welfare, social housing and working conditions, we will indeed be eating locusts (though I guess with the dropping of the GE ban, at least they wont be eating our crops).

    • As usual millsy the opposition followers typically dismiss what they already know National will do, with sarcasm. Yet there will be many thousands who will suffer.

      • Many thousands are suffering now. And no, I’m not saying National or Act have the answers but what’s happening now is not working. That’s for sure. We have a sorry list of choices and I don’t see much light at the end of the tunnel with any of them. Just that Millsy’s idea that we are in some kind of nirvana with Labour and will all get to the Promised Land with them and it will all go to hell without them is tribal naivety. We’re already on the road to hell.

  4. These are the trends:
    – Labour dropping; Greens are increasing but not at the same level as the drop
    – Act/National have hit a ceiling of 48/49 but not 51/52
    – NZF there or thereabouts

    National/Act with NZF on a confidence and supply agreement with a foreign minister outside of cabinet with a side of fried duck.

  5. Its not a single seat, its more. But its getting weird.

    Those numbers add up to 95% of the vote. Remove NZF as wasted vote and its 91.5%. Do the maths and its a 65/55 right/left split.

    Overhang is the biggest problem for the Right now. TPM will probably create an overhang, but the real oddity is that Labour might create one too, if their party voter keeps tanking but they hold electorate seats.

      • Winston will be 7-8% for sure, NZF is the Thinking Man’s Party, so long as Winston and Shane Jones don’t go putting their foot in their mouth’s and start shooting themselves in their feet which they normally do around voting time. NZF have got good policies and good people.

        • Isn’t that a bit problematic? The party’s leaders can’t be trusted when opening their mouths? I think the country would be unanimous in pleading with Shayne Jones not to sing again.

  7. I usually rate Curia poll and looking at this, I think it is spot on in all respects except that NZF will get 5% or more on the day. In which case, expect that increase to come at the cost of Labour. Maori Party at 2.5 – 3.5.

    Now that it seems RAF definitely wont win ILAM, it’ll be interesting to see how much the TOP vote holds up on the day? Will they move to the Greens or splinter between Greens and Nats?

  9. It’s never a sure thing in an MMP election: Too often it produces random results based on tiny vote margins of the minority parties.

  11. 26 % .. bring back Angry Andy. Him and Cunliffe were gone on that number.

    The Labour back bench is so spinless and devoid of talent, that they are instead stuck in the headlights and…lambs to the political slaughter.

    • Andy better than angry Bishop, National so devoid of any talent they still have old age pensioners Brownlee and Collins still sucking on your tax payers title.

  12. Sorry to burst your bubble, but National’s flagship policies are full of holes. Inflationary tax bracket changes that will give a pitance to those on minimum wage, but much more to those who have much more, with the main source of funding for their promises and their new roading plan, being overseas foreign money magic fountain slight of hand. If it wasn’t serious, it would sound like a scam that should be reported.
    National plan to spend quarter of a billion on more plug in electric vehicle chargers, when some of the main car makers are now developing wireless charging systems, including BMW, means that the chargers National roll out may quickly become obsolete white elephants, like backing beta when everyone moves to VHS. But hey, it’s ONLY quarter of a billion, from the party that claims to be financially responsible.
    Being finacially reponsible, would be for the govt to put money into the superfund to fund retirees, yet that got curtailed last time National was in govt. What will happen this time?
    National are making spending promises like white collar drunken sailors with no thought for tommorow, epitomised by National’s disdain to do anything meaningful to address climate change. It would certainly be ironic if another cyclone bears down on NZ on election day, but then again, god moves in mysterious ways, and what connection is there between cyclones and climate change anyway. Just because the last decade has been the hotest recorded in human history, may just be a conspiracy by the suntan industry.
    The main type of finance National knows about, is how to swindle and buy votes by promising lower tax. But even my rudimentary maths knows that less tax, but promising new spending, just doesn’t add up, without cutbacks. If it’s so easy to buy voters, by promising to tax foreign speculators, to then fund tax cuts, then off course Labour could make exactly the same promise. But would it be responsible? Would it be commonsense? Would it be financially prudent at this time? Of course everyone thinks low taxes are great. Post war USA actually had a 70% top tax rate all the way until the eighties when Reagan reduced it to 28%, and now there are whole city blocks in America, where thousands of people live in cars and tents with minimal public health care, in the richest country in the world. I’d rather live in a pre Reagan housing project than out on the street. BTW when the USA tax rate was 70%, there weren’t droves of rich Americans trying to emmigrate to lower tax countries.
    Slash and Burn Chainsaw Luxon, needs to explain what he’s cutting. It certainly won’t be the new mega prisons. And it certainly won’t be the number of prisoners. And it certainly won’t be the $110k cost of keeping a prisoner in prison anually. On that I’ll admit, National has always been generous splashing the cash, or can they ask foreigners to cover that bill also? Why not send prisoners to some cheaper prison in China that might only cost a couple of thousand anually, maybe Nicola’s wet dream, not that I want to know what goes on in her head, apart from waiting for her chance to stab her boss in the back.
    When govt departments cut back office staff, they can’t do everything they used to do properly. Easily seen with Police, who are mainly there to maintain order rather than solve the most complex offences, for which they would need far more back office technical people, accountants,scientists,computer experts, than they have.
    The main benefactors from National that I can see will be landlords, by welcoming back foreign buyers, and making the very lucrative business of owning rentals more lucrative, with the bright line and tax deducibilty changes, and importing cheap labour who will need accomodation. It’s simple supply and demand, that translates to higher rent and lower wages, to get more growth. They have mentioned nothing on state houses, so if they get in, then presumably it will be business as usual, with the selling off of state houses beginning again in earnest, and of course, making the state house waiting look better by kicking people off it, is their usual way of improving the books. Personally I’d prefer more practical things, like help with paying for the dentist, and cheaper fruit and vege, and not being a serfe to the whims of my landlord.
    Like all encumbant govts under current economic pressures, unfortunately Labour have it all uphill, because the inflation rate is not set to come down substantially until next year, meaning that cost of living and interest rates are relatively high for those having to refix mortgages, and I can’t see petrol prices coming down either, when you have conflict in Europe and opec cutting production. Not good factors for Labour, but completely out of their hands, though their clean car discount which National plans to ditch, is addressing it a little.
    The polling closer to the election will be telling, when more of the undecideds become decided, after viewing the TV debates. Also telling will be how many voters will remember how Labour guided NZ, through the pandemic with health outcomes and economically better than virtually all comparable countries. If my memory serves me, National wanted to open the borders up, before NZ had even achieved a high vaccination rate…talk about commonsense.
    I’m still waiting for either of the main parties to make some noises on canabis law reform, and I’d like to see National be more sensible, and strongly rule out the ACT parties policy of letting military weapons back into the hands of sporting shooters, since there is good reason why those weapons are called military.
    Also like to see Labour pull it’s candidate from Ilam to give Oportiunities Party a boost. Labour won’t win Ilam anyway. As for NZfirst, if they get back in, this time they may go on the cross benches because NZfirst when part of govt, are always voted out at the following election, so the cross benches could be beneficial for them no matter what the govt is.
    On the bright side, if Luxon doesn’t make it, then there will always be an opening for him on the comedy circuit, after hearing National complain about Labours attack adds. National wrote the book on attack politics, although technically it was Mr Hager. As well as trying to make NZ a tax haven for dirty money, they were feeding information to bloggers, playing games with OIA requests, attacking top public servants, and even getting the NZ secret service who of all the govt departments, need to be seen to be absolutely the most politically neutral, to help with attacking Phil Goff, was a new lowpoint. In any transparent democracy there would have been an inquiry into it all. They were Kremlin Stasi tactics in plain sight, yet National are now whinging about Labour, is a bit rich. Do they think Jason Eade has moved back into the Beehive, and is orchestrating Labours adverts? And because anything cam happen in politics, is there a rumour that Woodhouse has begun transitioning, to achieve a higher list ranking? Time will tell.

    • Yeah well fuck labour allowing black rock in the door. “ it is estimated that by 2030 black rock will own 60% of rental properties in the US”

      • Blackrock is planning to invest in the environmental and green energy sector, not in residential housing. NZ is not the US. It’s speculators from China who want to invest in our houses.

Comments are closed.