GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Pacific Intelligence Update

Pacific importance demonstrated by a flurry of diplomatic activity

In the last couple of weeks, we have witnessed a flurry of diplomatic activity that clearly demonstrates the rising importance of the Pacific in world politics. Examples include:

• The United States, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visiting a range of small countries like Papua New Guinea in May, then to Tonga recently to open a new United States embassy. Finishing this most recent trip with a visit to New Zealand, immediately before the launch of that nation’s new defence strategy. 
• The United States, Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin joined the diplomatic offensive visiting Papua New Guinea recently to discuss the nation’s new defence partnership.
• America’s senior diplomat and Secretary of Defence linking up in Australia to meet their counterparts last week.
• France’s President, Emmanuel Macron has also been hard at work. Recently visiting France’s Pacific colonies and this week visiting Papua New Guinea.  The first visit by an incumbent French President to the nation.  
• Meanwhile China’s hospital ship, the ‘Peace Ark’ continued its tour of the Pacific docking in Tonga a few days after Secretary Blinken left.  The hospital ship is a military vessel that performs surgeries and minor procedures around the Pacific building goodwill.
• Finally, the largest ever Exercise Talisman Sabre in Australia that involved approximately 30,000 service personnel included participation from a couple of NATO nations; Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and France.  Military exercises are not just about war-fighting, they also serve to build relationships between defence forces.

This activity demonstrates the level of interest that the United States, Europe and China have in the Pacific region. The United States most senior diplomat and Secretary of Defence taking time to visit small and distant nations whilst still managing the War in Ukraine and tensions on the Korean Peninsula demonstrates the Pacific’s importance.  

Partly, the United States is driven by being ‘caught out’ in the Solomon Islands.  Historically, Australia has led Austro-American diplomacy in Melanesia and China’s recent secret security deals with Solomon Islands represent a failure of that diplomatic approach that the United States is now investing in repairing.  

However, in my opinion the real story here is that Pacific nations are entering a period of considerable influence.  The region has been identified by both the United States and NATO as key to managing China.  Controlling the Pacific allows these parties to geographically isolate China because Chinese oil comes from the Persian Gulf, through the Indian Ocean and then through the South West Pacific. China’s trade and fishing fleets also rely on access to the Pacific Ocean. And; although China is working with Pakistan to develop an alternative route this option is still many years away.  

In turn, this means that all parties are working to build military infrastructure in the Pacific.  Infrastructure like ports, airfields, logistics bases and areas of land on which long-range missiles can be dispersed.  And; this is why Papau New Guinea and the Solomons are important, if a war starts in the South China Sea (either fighting for Taiwan or over the ‘Nine Dash Line’) this route will no longer be available for maritime trade.  Commercial vessels will need to push east and move via the Pacific or through Melanesia. This is why Melanesia, the western Pacific Islands, French Polynesia and Micronesia are now so important in global geo-politics.

This situation is interesting because it potentially puts power in the hands of small Pacific nations, as powerful leaders come to them seeking their support and places to base military forces.  Over the next 6-12 months there is an opportunity for small Pacific nations to work together to define relationships that maintain security and stability, while getting support to address issues like climate change that are important to small Pacific nations. 

Indian Navy visits Papua New Guinea

In another example of major power diplomacy in the Pacific, two Indian Navy ships visited Papua New Guinea last week. The guided missile destroyer INS Kolkata and the frigate INS Sahyadri visited Port Moresby for two days before sailing off to participate in joint exercises with Australian, Japanese and American warships. Exercise Malabar is an annual naval exercise sponsored by the ‘Quadrilateral Dialogue,’ a security group consisting of Australia, Japan, India and the United States. The exercise testing inter-operability and demonstrating these nations resolve to work together in the region.

The Indian warships visit to Papua New Guinea follows a visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in May this year, and is another demonstration of Melanesia’s international significance.  India and the United States and Europe are not close friends.  India has deep historical relationships with the Soviet Union and with Russia. However, India has a long and frequently contested land border with China encouraging it to work more closely with the growing group of nations opposing China.  Hence, India’s involvement in the Quadrilateral Dialogue.

In the Pacific, India like France is a power to watch because it is not a traditional ally of the United States and sets its own course politically.  Further, it is the world’s most populous democracy and a strong voice in the ‘Global South,’ the group of nations in the Southern Hemisphere that have opted out of taking a position on the Ukraine War.  Historically, India is not a nation known for power projection, it has enough problems to manage at home with a developing economy and aggressive neighbours so it tends to be more locally focussed. However, times are changing and Sino-Indian tensions are high so India may see a beneficial strategy supporting the United States and its allies. A strategy designed to force China to try to manage issues focusing east in the Pacific and west toward India at the same time. 

Bougainville independence vote moves forward

Papua New Guinea and Bougainville are closer to deciding about the island’s independence.  Papua New Guinea’s parliament resolving the issue about how the results of Bougainville’s 2019 independence referendum will be reviewed. The parliament recently changed the vote required for independence from a ‘simple majority’ to an ‘absolute majority.’ 

Essentially, that instead of requiring 51% of MPs to agree to independence, a ‘Yes’ would require 75% of MPs to agree.  This was a significant change that was announced by the Minister of Bougainville Affairs, Manasseh Makiba in May.  Fortunately, last week Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister, James Marape announced after discussion with Bougainville’s representatives the situation had changed returning the threshold to a ‘simple majority.’ 

A sensible decision that will help preserve stability in Melanesia.  Bougainville’s independence is a thorny issue, this vote cost 25,000 lives lost in a long running war on the island. However, the island is rich in mineral wealth and Papua New Guinea lost a lot of blood and treasure trying to keep it meaning that both parties are keen to retain it. This is a process to keep watching, hopefully a mutually agreed solution can be agreed that prevents further tension in the area.

French embassy planned in Samoa and a new ‘office’ in Papua New Guinea

Last week, Emmanuel Macron France’s president announced plans for the nation to build a new embassy in Samoa. The new embassy will join France’s existing Pacific diplomatic missions in New Zealand, Australia, Fiji, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea.

Further, France intends to open an ‘office for expertise’ in Papua New Guinea. Another diplomatic initiative designed to strengthen relationships in Melanesia. The office’s focus will be coordinating support for a range of climate change mitigation programmes France is supporting in the country including:

• Aiding cooperation about future energy projects.
• Supporting work to make Rabaul’s port more resilient. 
• Increased support for ‘green’ finance in the region.

Climate change is a key issue for most small Pacific nations and France’s diplomacy is a good example of a diplomatic approach based on listening to Papua New Guinean concerns rather than focussing on military aid.  Probably, there is a military objective too, because Rabaul is a strategically located island with a deep and safe harbour; and having a functional port there would be useful in a future conflict.  The important point is that perhaps American diplomats can learn from France’s example; or that perhaps small Pacific nations can learn from this initiative and demand climate change support in exchange for providing bases to larger powers.  

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger