Looking back on the last week in Ukraine, it seems that a ‘tipping point’ is developing. Although the week provided plenty of drama, with discussions about if Russia would blow up the Zaporizhia Nuclear Powerplant, reports that Russia is massing tens of thousands of soldiers in the north-east near Kremina and if Putin’s regime would collapse after Prigozhin’s coup; or whether the plotters would come to a sticky end. However, in my opinion, the most important action was the announcement that the United States will supply cluster bombs to Ukraine; and in this column I will explain why. But first, let us work through the other activity reported this week and see how it contributes to the developing picture of what is happening in Ukraine.
Starting with Ukrainian reports on 4 July that Russia plans to destroy the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, spreading a cloud of radioactive fallout across Europe. Ukraine has signalled this possibility for a long-time; and Russia has a history of willingness to conduct acts that Ukraine’s allies do not consider either lawful or moral in war. So it was with some relief that during last week tensions decreased and destruction of the plant became less likely, probably because of firm opposition from China and the United States, both countries making their opposition to any attack on the plant well-understood to Putin. Destruction of the plant is a loss either way for Putin. If NATO enters the war Russia will lose quickly, even imposition of a NATO ‘no-fly’ zone over Ukraine would critically harm his campaign. And; without China’s support Russia’s economy would suffer catastrophically.
Meanwhile, on the battlefield Ukrainian soldiers are slowly pressing forwards making incremental progress and probing for the holes in Russia’s defences. The campaign is developing and at this stage, we can summarise the situation as follows:
- In the south-west Ukrainian forces are threatening Tokmak, a key rail junction about 40km north of Melitopol. If the town is captured Ukraine can disrupt Russia’s ability to supply its forces in Kherson, Crimea and Zaporizhia. Tokmak is also a first step towards capturing Melitopol on the coast. Initially, two Ukrainian thrusts threatened Tokmak; one orginating near Orihikiv and another starting about 35-40km further east, near Huliapole. In recent weeks the Orihikiv axis has been more successful Ukraine advancing about 2km into very strong Russian defences.
- In the south east, Ukraine is slowly eliminating the Velyka Novosilka salient, a bulge that pushed north into Ukrainian lines about 40km east of Huliapole. This operation is progressing well with the salient being slowly flattened, Ukrainian forces pressing the Russians back about 5-6km along a roughly 30 km frontage.
- Ukraine appears to be trying to encircle Bakhmut and in recent weeks Ukrainian forces have advanced about five to six kilometres both north and south of the city. Ukrainian troops capturing high ground overlooking the city and this week in the south, they made significant progress closing in on the town Klishchiivka. However, Ukrainian forces need to advance approximately another six-to-eight kilometres both in the north and in south before they can encircle the city.
And; Russia is throwing everything it has at the campaign, fighting hard in defence, reinforcing Bakhmut and where ever it has spare soldiers attacking. Last week, the media reported a large build-up of Russian soldiers roughly 50km north of Bakhmut, near Kremina. This development caused a great deal of discussion because the concentration is large and troops based here can be used for offensive operations pushing west towards Kharkiv, to reinforce the Kremina-Svatove line against a surprise Ukrainian attack in the north east or to reinforce the area around Bakhmut. Although the Kremina build-up is large; and supported by Russian artillery and missile attacks on nearby Lyman, most military observers are quick to point out that the soldiers moving to this area are recently mobilised reserves unlikely to be able to mount a successful offensive. Further, Kremina’s location makes it useful for a defensively focussed troop concentration; either supporting Bakhmut or the Kremina – Svatove line. Together these factors indicate a sudden Russian counter-attack in the north-east is unlikely at this stage, this force being more use as a threat and defensive reserve rather than an l assault force.
Generally, the overall state of Russian forces seems to be deteriorating to the point that a counter-attack anywhere is unlikely. Two weeks ago, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence reported that Russia’s reserves in the south were depleted; and this week Russian mil-bloggers are making similar statements, particularly about the Kherson area. Early last week, a Russian mil-blogger claimed that Russia’s forces in Kherson, east of the Dnipro River lack reserves. That frontline forces are fully engaged and their reserve; the 20th Division recently moved to reinforce Bakhmut leaving only one brigade, the 36th behind in reserve. United States ‘think tank’ the Institute for the Study of War reported similar activity from the Russian mil-blogger space stating that “The milblogger’s description of acute rotation issues supports ISW’s previous assessment that Russian forces likely lack combat-ready reserves.”
Later in the week on 7 July, the Institute’s assessment included more detailed observations from Ukrainian observer, Konstantin Mashovets, the Institute reporting that “Mashovets’ report suggests that the only reserve that the Russian military maintains in southern Ukraine consists of elements of the 29th Combined Arms Army – the Eastern Military District’s smallest combined arms army that has only one maneuver brigade: the 36thMotorized Rifle Brigade. Elements of the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade participated in the Battle of Kyiv in early 2022 and fought near Vuhledar in early 2023 and are thus likely degraded.” Essentially, that Russia’s reserve brigade in the south-west is a tired and depleted unit.
The Institute for the Study of War also stated that it believes that almost all of Russia’s Eastern Group of Forces has deployed to support the war effort. That Russia is so desperate for soldiers that troops normally based in the far east of Siberia are now in Ukraine. Again, this observation is consistent with the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence reporting that Russia has removed garrisons from Central Asia and the Far East to support the war. Essentially, both the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence and the Institute for the Study of War are saying the same thing; that Russia’s reserves have been stretched thin and that although the forward lines of defence are strong, Russia’s position is brittle because any break through by Ukraine is impossible for Russia to contain because they do not have reserves.
However, Ukraine still needs to achieve a breakthrough before they can exploit Russia’s weakness. Ukraine’s strategy is working drawing Russian forces towards Bakhmut or forcing reserves to come forwards to shore up defence lines. And; it should be noted that to-date we have not seen a multi-brigade Ukrainian attack on a narrow frontage employing massed combined arms effect like; depth precision strikes, massed artillery, massed armour or large concentrations of engineer support. Instead, we are seeing lots of company-sized operations and smaller activities that in previous wars would have been called raids or patrols but now form part of daily internet news reporting giving an impression of a larger commitment. Clearly, the Ukrainians are holding their main effort back waiting to strike while testing Russian defences and learning.
And; I think the United States authorised ‘cluster bomb’ shipments because after a month of testing Russia’s defences Ukraine and the United States know that breaking through without huge Ukrainian losses, requires additional firepower. The term cluster bomb, refers to ammunition carrying small grenade sized ‘clusters’ of ‘bomblets’ onto a target, each bomblet normally smaller than your fist. Some bomblets are anti-personnel, full of high explosive and are essentially the equivalent of tipping a load of hand grenades onto a position. Other bomblets contain ‘shaped charges’ designed to bore through the rooves of tanks or infantry bunkers. ‘Cluster munitions’ come in a variety shapes; artillery shells, rockets and aircraft bombs each delivering a payload of bomblets that ranges from dozens in an artillery shell to hundreds in a rocket or bomb. The term cluster munition can also include shells, bombs and rockets that spread land mines on a target. Part of Russia’s defence system involves using artillery, rockets and bombs to seed minefields designed to stop or cut-off Ukrainian forces attacking their positions.
Cluster munitions are banned by most nations because bomblets do not always detonate leaving lethal bomblets across wide areas. The Red Cross estimates that bomblets have a 10-40% failure rate. Likewise, mines spread using this system are impossible to track and record. Cluster munitions spread their bomblets or mines over large and hard to define areas; meaning they are difficult to remove at the end of a conflict so may be responsible for maiming or killing people years after fighting stops.
Supplying cluster munitions is big news, and at this stage it does not appear the United States is providing bombs or missiles but rather stocks of old 155mm artillery shells. This is obviously a measure to control and limit the long-term legacy of these weapons but still provide the Ukrainians with the firepower they need to break through Russia’s defence lines. Well-built trenches can absorb incredible amounts of conventional artillery fire. Cluster munitions are different; individual high-explosive bomblets landing in trenches and shaped charge bomblets drilling through overhead protection. When Ukraine receives cluster munitions for their artillery it will be much more lethal against Russia’s dug-in defences.
In summary, the real story this week is not that may be Russia planning to destroy the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant or is concentrating forces near Kremina but that after a month of operations, the first part of Ukraine’s strategy appears to be working and is forcing Russia to move reserves around both within Ukraine; and to deplete important garrisons across the whole of the Russian Federation.
However, Ukraine’s operations demonstrate that the campaign is reaching a ‘tipping point,’ that to transition to the next phase of its offensive Ukraine needs to break through Russia’s strong defensive line. And; it is probably possible that Ukraine can do this but without additional firepower the transition will be costly. Cluster munitions provide additional punch more quickly than supplying aircraft like F16s. Essentially, the United States supplying cluster munitions to Ukraine indicates that both countries are concerned about Ukraine’s ability to breech Russia’s defensive lines without taking unacceptable casualties. Ukraine’s transition from probing attacks to application of its main effort, the reserve of NATO equipped brigades, is a ‘tipping point’ that is fast approaching and progress towards it will be influenced by how quickly cluster munitions get to Ukraine.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger
More proof as if any were needed, that this is a proxy war. Even 5 Eyes partners bar the US of course, have signed up to the international Convention on Cluster Munitions. Note to the politically illiterate; this includes New Zealand, UK, Canada and Australia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munitions
Having said that, the war has to end and quickly via the intervention of as many international efforts as possible for a ceasefire, and then negotiations.
And it would have been far better to avoid the war in the first place by putting serious effort into peaceful resolutions of a situation that was warned about since the fall of the Berlin wall and East Germany becoming part of NATO in the 90’s
Russia was pushing for a peaceful solution to their security concerns for decades
All of which was flat out rejected because Russia was seen to be weak and who gave a fuck about them
Hipkin’s talk of seeking peace is outright hypocrisy.
NZ never put its hand up for mediation once before the war.Now we’re pathetically trying to claim we’re all about peace .Bullshit!
it’s clear the only acceptable peace for the warmongers around here is if the US maintains its global stranglehold
Hey Ivan the Russians are using cluster munitions, and we never got a peep out of you. There will be no negotiation with the filth russians until they leave Ukraine.
Ukraine will win this war.
proof ted and cite a source please
Ben – You are a sucker for punishment…even NATO is sending peace feelers to Russia
Given that most NATO countries have banned cluster munitions as being inhumane and an unacceptable harm to innocent civilians for the endless future, Ukraine’s use of them will certainly raise eyebrows at Vilnius.
It’s hard to reconcile Ukraine’s wish to regain territory with its rendering that territory uninhabitable for decades to come (witness the continuing mutilation sustained by Vietnamese children stepping on unexploded bomblets decades later)
Is this a sign of increased desperation on the part of the US and Ukraine .Some part of the US backtracking on Ukraine becoming part of NATO?
A weeping sore for generations to come.
Hey Ivana the Russian used cluster ammo you never said a thing.
The introduction of cluster bombs shows this war has become a cluster fuck. A hundred and ten years after WW1 France and the tribes of Europe are back fighting trench warfare again. The Amerikan policy of gradual escalation is designed to drain Russian military and economic power without provoking a nuclear response. Perhaps Russia should adopt the USA tactic toward Japan from WW2 and drop the smallest cleanest nuclear bomb they have smack in the middle of Kiev. Let’s show the universe that as a species we haven’t learnt anything and that intelligence is an evolutionary dead end
Russians know that even a “little” nuclear weapon used in Ukraine will have an immediate retaliatory effect on the cities of St Peterberg and Moscow.
Those subs (25 in total (US, UK and French currently in the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas) will fire over 200 missiles Russia bound.
USA will do this as it is bound by the 1994 Budapest Memorandum when the then third largest nuclear arsenal (Ukraine’s) was returned to Russia to be decommissioned and with the US pledge to defend Ukraine if those weapons were used against Ukraine.
Very few people seem to consider the Budapest Memorandum and the implications there off.
Worth a read:
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-is-the-budapest-memorandum-and-why-has-russias-invasion-torn-it-up-178184
“Putin’s decision to invade is in direct violation of the Budapest Memorandum, a key instrument assuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The memorandum was struck in 1994, following lengthy and complicated negotiations involving the then Russian president Boris Yeltsin, Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma, US president Bill Clinton and the then British prime minister John Major.
Under the terms of the memorandum, Ukraine agreed to relinquish its nuclear arsenal – the world’s third-largest, inherited from the collapsed Soviet Union – and transfer all nuclear warheads to Russia for decommissioning. This enabled Ukraine to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear state. “
Then Russia will have to retaliate before nato knocks out their weapons, they’d need to go all out and hit the US as well as european targets then it’s MAD time. Armchair warriors scare me almost as much as the real ones sometimes.
Don’t worry – the US has a great record for never being bound by any memorandum.
Look at how Trump renounced and broke the agreements with Iran.
NATO hasn’t banned cluster munitions. All NATO forces have them because they were a very effective way to stop a Soviet advance into Europe during the cold war. They’re also great for disabling a runway – and were used for just that during the Bosnian conflict.
With a claimed 2.5% failure rate, there won’t be many unexploded US bomblets left. Most of the battle terrain is open fields which can be mechanically demined afterwards. Ukraine is already busy doing this and there are some fun videos online of Ukraine farmers innovating to get their fields back into operation: Using a captured Russian tank chassis, pushed across fields by a tractor with a heavy metal deflector plate between the two.
Signs the Russians are struggling include use of very old artillery shells and T62 tanks. The Ukraine side has destroyed an enormous number of Russian artillery units (the small-scale attacks by Ukraine provoke the Russians to use their artillery, thereby exposing them to counter battery fire) and vast quantities of ammo have been destroyed in strikes in the rear.
Thanks Ben – keep your posts coming.
Sorry Andrew , you’re quite incorrect to claim that NATO hasn’t banned cluster bombs
.Now you can get all wiley and semantic but the fact remains, 75% of NATO countries have banned their use.
Ukraine has run through all of theirs so has been getting more from Turkey and now the US
A “claimed 2.5% failure rate”
I think you’ll find its a hell of a lot more like 40%
Vietnam is still fitting prosthetic limbs to their children from the munitions 50 years on
Dream on warmonger
That was jungle warfare – very hard to find them afterwards
Never heard of Agent Orange?
Sigh….the kids today
Yeah , Andrew sems incurably ignorant. “Only fools lean upon their misunderstandings” Robert Nesta Marley OM.
and they’re very shiney and attractive to children picking them up…just like their ancestors the nazi butterfly bombs….they don’t usually kill so hey what’s a few limbless kids.
Oh dear Ben, the appeasers are out in force again.
A good summation thanks very much and I totally agree with your comments about Russian reserves being moved all over the show. We’re certainly not seeing a blitzkrieg from Ukraine but we are seeing a lot of significant probing and encircling and ongoing losses in personnel and materiel for the Russians. It would be a big mistake to view the counter offensive as a fizzer.
Wait and watch.
yeah have a look/watch JSB,,, https://youtu.be/UAcl0PTqql8?t=56 did you see it ? :0 ,,, watch carefully as it’s very small and you might miss it.
As for Gerrit above ,,,, ignoring the fact you’d think those already engaged in contaminating Ukraine with Radioactive material (depleted Uranium),,, and that they would be the more likely suspects to do this on a far larger scale….
ignoring that,,,, Gerrits threats of Nuclear annihilation towards Russia — “Those subs (25 in total (US, UK and French currently in the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas) will fire over 200 missiles Russia bound.” ,,, he leaves out a large part of the story ,,,, the other THOUSANDS of nuclear missiles destroying everyone everywhere ,,, but especially the US, UK and the frogs ,,, maybe that just slipped Gerrits mind? …. it’s a good thing he is not in charge of anything important.
Another example of Gerrits feeble mindedness is the fact that if he owned/ran a car parking building he seems to believe he would own any car parked in it. … imagine the scenarios,,,,
,,, Gerrit– “I’m not returning your car as it’s mine”
,,, Car Owner–” But it’s not your car Gerrit, I have the keys and I own it”
Gerrit– “Fuck off , it’s on my land so it’s mine”
That’s what Gerrit is doing with his Ukraines/Wilsons Parking nukes.
Cluster munitions are nothing new in Ukraine ,,,, the Kiev coup regime has been using them on civilian areas since they launched this war in 2014 ,,, Ukraine Clusterf*ck https://youtu.be/5Q4tsJQ4GeU?t=791
And of course the Usa Govt tells yet more lies to go with all their others, to sanitise the use of their ‘good guys’ cluster bomblets,,, one example of this is exposed in this 1 minute and 30 second video …. What you need to know about US sending Ukraine cluster munitions https://youtu.be/Z9PeuxDylXQ?list=LL
It’s fitting and ironic, that the Usa announcement on sending cluster weapons to seed the ground for children and future generations in Ukraine, should follow hot on the heels of senile/demented war criminal Joe Biden appointing war criminal Eliot Abrams back into a Usa Government position of power … Biden joins Trump in appointing war criminal involved in genocide: Meet Elliott Abrams, coup expert https://youtu.be/k2MUS0xRCTo?list=TLPQMDkwNzIwMjOtbzmfrG7CYw&t=1240
https://mronline.org/2023/07/06/ukraine-timeline-tells-the-story/
Slava what again ?.
* right click and open link in new Tab to stay on TDB page
Slava Ukraini
More bollocks from Ben, the Ukraine hasnt even manged to break into the first lines of defense. It’s time for Ukraine to call for terms, unfortunately neither Washington or Moscow are inclined to stop this.
Who do I believe Ben or a commie sympathiser like you?
Commie??
Ted, are you still living in Ted Heath’s era? Communism in Europe died with the USSR in 1990 or so, you silly fool.
It hasnt died out in Russia Boris.
What a moronic statement, communism gathers less than 10% of the vote and are the main OPPOSITION party.
Oh no they’re not FG! They fully supported the invasion of Ukraine.
FFS are to trying to equate one in 10 voting communist to Russia being “Communist” that must be one of your top 10 moronic misinformation Ovod.
You are the moron with all the disinformation FG.
Zyuganov is just a stooge who supports Putin. Russia has no opposition parties in the Duma. Putin makes sure they are not elected.
You know nothing about Russia!
Give up!
It hasn’t died out in the FSB, In Vino, and that is the main problem!
the yanks have taken over ‘plan ost’ look it up
Ukraine is fucked Ben, the Counteroffensive has been a unmitigated & miserable failure with tons of NATO Tanks burning & dead Ukrainians littering the minefields! The Cluster bombs are being supplied because the West & Ukraine have run out of weapons, they have no more artillery shells to provide! Ukraine tried resorting to Nuclear Terrorism to blow up the ZPP Nuclear Power Station & lame attempts to blow up the Kerch Bridge again! NATO has nothing left, they don’t have the Industrial capacity to defeat Russia, this conflict will be over by the end of the year with Ukraine’s unconditional surrender & the US & defeated in humiliation like in Afghanistan! What’s Ben going to write about then? Taiwan?
Let’s hold you to this Antforce62 – “This conflict will be over by the end of the year with Ukraine’s unconditional surrender” – you may not have noticed but there is a fair way to go if your prediction is to be proved correct.
Sheer delusion Antbrain!
More nonsense from Antforce who sounds like a well known Russian bot. Ukraine are making steady progress and have plenty of men and weapons in reserve. Today’s news re the Bakhmut area is very encouraging with more ground having been retaken and a large concentration of Russians being taken under fire control. Interesting to me is that Turkey is now actively helping Ukraine with weapons and ammunition supply plus has said it will unilaterally use its navy to protect the grain shipment corridor even if Russia disagree with such a move. Interesting times and it does seem things are getting worse for Russia daily now. Things have progressed considerably since the main Russian supporters on here were claiming Odessa would be taken by Christmas 2022. Occupied territory continues to reduce and all the while Russia get weaker and weaker!
Thanks for your comments Trev and yes recent developments re Turkey are interesting . .
The only bit Ant got wrong was suggesting the wars end date. Reality is a bitch and Ants claims can all be substantiated. Ukraine has lost, the West has lost, the only thing up for dispute is how badly and when it will end.
NATO just said no to Ukraine joining during the current conflict. From which you can deduce that the West has declined direct conflict with Russia as currently unwinnable.
The West needs a pause to regroup, rearm. Russia will recognise this so expect no ceasefire.
What breathtaking conclusions NJ! But completely wrong as usual!
If Russia had no nuclear weapons, there would be no problem.
You continue to extol the virtues of a poorly led, corrupt, ill equipped army which uses its conscripts as cannon fodder. It’s commend is in disarray- General Surovikin has been arrested for colluding with Prigozhin and another top ranking general, Ivan Popov, has been dismissed for criticising army tactics. Putin’s war against Ukraine is unwinnable.
You are I denial troll.
I denial? Your spellchecking is appalling plus you are so trollish NJ, that you would perfectly belong in the cast of Ibsen’s Peer Gynt!