The Poll of Polls is predicting a Labour led minority Government with Supply and Confidence from the Māori Party, but that is only one outcome, the others are National/ACT Government and a National minority Government with supply and confidence from NZFirst and ACT.
This blog looks at what a National/ACT Government looks like.
I don’t believe for one second that the vast majority of Kiwis have any true comprehension of just how radical a National/ACT Government would truly be.
If it’s a National/ACT Government, it will be Seymour calling the shots.
The quick yellow fox will jump all over the lazy blue log and David Seymour will get all his crazy policy passed without Luxon caring.
- Māori going to the Waitangi Tribunal over cancellation of 3 waters: The moment the National/ACT Government scrap 3 Waters, Māoridom will go straight back to the Waitangi Tribunal, win the Court Case and force Luxon into his own Helen Clark moment and be forced to pass law to simply confiscate the water. This will cause an enormous eruption of violent protest.
- Mass immigration: National will simply implement John Key’s pump and dump policy of open door immigration to inflate growth rates while causing enormous stress on the groaning underfunded infrastructure and send rents soaring. This will cause enormous social dislocation and a rise in race relation tensions.
- Expansion of Oranga Tamariki Big Data Experiment: National created the Oranga Tamariki Frankenstein and wants more welfare decided by algorithm as a means to de-invest welfare. Luxon has already championed this model.
- Mass Dairy intensification: It’s all National have as an economic policy.
- Mass Property Speculation: They will remove any of the bare tinkering Labour did and help the speculators spin prices higher.
- Mutilation of the State: ACT are serious about wanting to amputate the Ministry for Women, Youth, Māori, Pacific People and Ethnic Communities while slashing the Human Rights Commission. The resulting Public Service strikes will gridlock Wellington. If there’s one thing the Public Service can do well, it is protesting for their own interests.
- War on Crime: Expect the paramilitary police expansion to occur quickly with a whole dump of new civil liberty breaching powers to supposedly keep us safe but will almost immediately be abused as they increasingly get used on the protesting Left.
- Prison riot and explosion in numbers: The war on crime will see far more in prison and National prefers puritan counter productive prisons so expect them to be crammed full and explode in a seething chain reaction of prison riots once National grant Corrections new powers to beat prisoners with. Corrections are very corrupt and once they gain new powers to bash prisoners with, they’ll be some prisoner who gets beaten within an inch of his life which that will trigger prison riots.
- Rise of more Mass Surveillance & Political violence: The protests such a radical agenda creates will demand the State turn its attention back on the Left while National supporters clutch their pearls appalled at the aggression the Left are protesting with and rally around Luxon rather than criticise the policy. They will call on Luxon to spy on the radical lefties.
- Higher Government Debt: Luxon is no free marketeer, he believes he has 7 properties because Jesus loves him, if debt goes up to pay for the extra prisons, extra Police, extra dairy intensification, extra welfare experiments, extra fake growth, then so be it, he doesn’t care. Oh David Seymour will hate it, but he’ll be so fat and full on his amputation of 6 State agencies that he’ll only be able to mount a burp as a protest.
We have lived through a political period of time since MMP that has managed to dilute and temper the idealogical extremes of Left/Right politics in NZ. The need to compromise and pull punches is fundamental to the MMP dynamic HOWEVER that completely gets thrown out the window if there is no political centre left.
The political centre has been hollowed out so much under MMP that Labour and National are almost indistinguishable in their acquiescence to neoliberal mantra.
The far left and far right have enormous pent up political tension that will rupture once Labour or National are dependent on their numbers for a majority.
ACT’s rise is fuelling a toxic polarisation of politics and ultimately poses an existential threat to the National Party.
Line up Labour policy to Green policy and it’s 90% the same.
Labour and National vote together 70% of the time.
National and ACT policy are a billion light years away from each other.
ACT are no longer a snide political protest gesture from those whose rage leaves them impotent any longer they are a bonafide Right Wing Values Party and its double digit polling shows an electorate incandescent with vengeance and ready to lay a terrible reckoning upon us with a policy platform that is to the right of Caligula.
ACT won political ammunition from the woke cancel culture tactics of middle class identity activists who idiotically attempted to strangle free speech.
In doing so to calm the hysteria of the snowflake triggered, the woke signed the Left up to a culture war there was no fucking way we could win because free speech is sacrosanct you millennial clowns and the political backlash your attempts to censor it for identity dogma is as alienating as a cup of cold sick.
Because social media is so ubiquitous in our lives, all our timelines are a never ending algorithmically driven addiction of outrage olympics all holding their wounds up as legitimacy in a cacophony of intersectionist competition for social hierarchy.
ACT have benefited from this and because National stand for nothing more than Corporate Farmers, Bankers, Chinese Business interests, Corporate Farmers, Socially Conservative Christians, property speculators and corporate farmers, the rest of the right wing have walked away from the Grand old Tent that Don Brash and John Key held in place, and are now an existential threat to National in the immediate term, the medium term and the long term.
In fact, if National doesn’t do something very shortly, they will be dead in a decade.
Part of this is a demographic issue, there are more Gen Xers and Millennials than Boomers as a numerical voting block and National voters are getting older and older.
Part of this is a gentrification of Auckland suburbs away from Grumpy Christianity.
Part of it is rural farmers feeling ripped off by the big boys in the industry, part of it is their weird fetish with guns, part of it is the fury many Aucklanders feel at being sacrificed for the good of the country during the last lockdown.
Part of this is the culture wars the woke activists have chained us to.
Part of this is a leader like David Seymour who is magnificent on the campaign trail, so much so, he will eclipse Luxon.
A lot of it is males who voted Labour in 2020, but have been angered by the Green Party war on cis white males and have literally no idea how extreme ACT Party policy actually is.
We will know if ACT really are flexing in Tamaki where Brooke has every chance of beating local God Botherer and National Party stooge whatshisface. Internals suggest they are neck and neck in the electorate which should wake National out of their complacency.
This all adds up to an existential threat to National.
Losing the white working poor farming vote and the suburban soccer dad is an incredible double blow for National.
Internal polling suggests 1 in 5 rural voters are considering voting ACT and one in 3 Auckland voters are considering voting ACT.
Those are numbers that rob National of authority and leaves it a hollowed out movement.
If voters on the Right sense Luxon can’t do it, there will be a late protest surge to ACT that will swell them beyond 15%, cannibalising enough National vote to rob them of a possible majority.
If National fail, Luxon will be removed and the internal fight over what National is will begin again, while ACT will start operating as the de facto opposition, (which they pretty much do already).
While National staggers to define itself in any post election loss, ACT will ruthlessly exploit their weakness and look to actually over take the National vote in 2026, which will strip National out of the main cities and leave them a South Island Party pretending to be from Masterton.
By 2029 National would be relegated to the highlands of the South Island where the cream rises and become a weaponised Grey Power without the teeth.
The Chinese Business Interests that backed National will be disappointed with their return on investment while the Billionaire class will pile into ACT’s class war agenda with the gleeful abandon of billionaires in submarines.
Even if National and ACT win a majority and form a Government, Seymour is so much smarter than Luxon, he will get all of ACTs agenda through, and then some!
In power ACT would take even more energy off National.
National’s only counter strike that will preserve the status quo and at least buy some time to consider their next move is to give Shane Jones an Epsom cup of tea in Northland.
Dilute ACT by including a shot of Winston.
ACT are calling National out and are clear they intend to negotiate hard with Luxon because they are believers.
Fanatics to be more precise.
Luxon flips and flops on a good day. The pressure of a campaign is a unique moment and while there are a thousand reasons to hate Labour, they are still competitive and that’s astounding.
Because a National/ACT Government is so extreme, the middle have decided to vote Labour regardless of how many times Michael Wood didn’t do what he should have done!
Sure, Michael got 13 strikes, but let’s not pretend ACT and National won’t inadvertently start a race war with a referendum that will enforce a new Treaty on Māori eh?
Yes, Michael silly and frustrating, but a hard Right Government forcing a new Treaty on Māori while cutting the Ministry’s of Youth, Ethnic Affairs, Māori, Women, Pacifica AND the Human Rights Commission???
So.
If National and ACT get in, ACT dominate Luxon and take votes off National and over take them in 2026.
If National and ACT don’t get in, ACT attack National openly and over take them in 2026.
Shane Jones might need a cuppa soon.
Nice to see someone woke up the Unions…
ACT’s contractor plan finds favour with BusinessNZ, but unions say it will worsen inequality
…yes ACT are going to be terrible. Thanks for joining us.
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“War on Crime”. I think you are wrong there Martyn. There’s a very good chance they will do f’ all. They might tinker but National always say they will do something and then quietly don’t. Please funding under their last turn being a great example. In fact they are ripping into a number things they actually started. It’s ok though all the “ grey hair yeah yeah” set will sleep soundly lapping up the Bs.
Police funding
If Labour had used their vast majority to do anything for the average person they would not be in a position to lose their power . I am sure 3 Waters is not the most important think in most Maori’s thought .Putting food on the table and a roof over their head is their main aim just as it is with most people and that is getting harder and harder under Labour
Trevor the co governance piece is not about what “most Māori’s” think its about rectifying previous f’ ups. Just like the other co governance models, UN Charter etc. All carried out by the party you think can and will do no wrong. That party attempted to address these issues but now their new management acts like they had nothing to do with it.
However much harder it gets under Labour for Maori, multiply it by 10 under Nact.
Was there a mass movement in the streets that forced the government to start shifting around water ownership, away from full public ownership to the benefit of tribal corporations? Why would one suddenly appear if the status quo was restored?
National and ACT will almost certanly lead to reductions in pay and conditions for New Zealand workers, not to mention the slashing of welfare and health spending, privatisation of education, and toll roads that the poor cannot afford to drive on, Also less state housing, and higher rents. It will even cost more to go to the doctor. There will also be dirtier rivers, as National will relax clean water legislation, and people will find it harder to get jobs as imigration is relaxed.
The average peep is equally scared or apprehensive about another Labour government with it’s support partners also and that’s Labour’s problem.
They look at Seymour and see a smart guy who has done the hard yards at Parliament and is not there for himself and think with a Centre/Left National support partner they will be good
What mickey mouse policy will Luxon release next, maybe a pothole policy he did say we have 5400 potholes maybe he’s been out counting them when riding on his scooter.
2 white men in 2 white shirts!
My understanding of it is that if Labour are elected to a fourth term in power, it will be only the second time in New Zealand’s history. Does that make it a slim possibility? No, it doesn’t. Polls have consistently favoured Labour over National and Chris Hipkins is arguably more popular as a potential leader in New Zealand’s next government than Christopher Luxon. Additionally, as the current Prime Minister and in his first term in that role, Chris Hipkins has the advantage over Chris Luxon.
Sorry to point out the problem with your arguement Labour have been in charge for nearly 6 years or two terms it only seems to be 3 terms because it is hard to believe they could do so much harm in such a short time
When you say “harm” to what fisical injuries do you refer to?
A National/ACT government is needed to bring some sanity back to this country. We’ve had enough of the woketards running the show.
Thank you Tucker Carlson for your input.
Engel, what, he i argue violence, cheep abuse profit, he, violence the end of capitalism its profit, exploit,this thing, what shall we name it.
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