I want to believe the great KGB Chess master has blundered.
I do.
I want to believe hubris and Russian pride has led Putin to believe a quick victory was in reach and that this cluster fuck top has all been an implosion of his sophistry and ego.
I hope all the experts who were previously predicting he wouldn’t invade the Ukraine, yet who are all so suddenly sure of a tactical blunder are right.
I really hope he’s fucked up and miscalculated.
Yet, something else is here in all this that still makes me terribly nervous.
What if this stalemate is by design?
What if this is Putin’s aim?
What if this is Putin’s plan?
January 27th, 2022, just after the coup in Kazakstan (which the Russian’s blamed on the West), Putin cut a grim figure placing the Wreath at the Commemorations at the Battle for Leningrad.
Putin seemed to have the weight of history upon him, you could feel the 1000 years of orthodox Christianity which he slavishly adheres to holding him to a torturous equation.
What if Putin wants an escalation?
What if a radioactive wasteland between him and NATO is a boundary no Western Army could cross.
What if Putin pushed an awkward and under prepared Army into a stalemate where use of battlefield Nukes becomes the outcome?
What if Putin has pushed all this way because he wants Chaos globally, because he can open up fronts in the Middle East from skyrocketing bread prices, can open up fronts in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iran. Can damage European gas supplies.
What if for Putin this stalemate is exactly what he wanted in order to escalate?
I want to write Putin’s Ukrainian invasion off as a mad gamble whose arrogance has caused a conflict he will lose, but I have feared Putin ever since the rumour that he bombed the Moscow apartments in 1999 to escalate the war in Chechnya.
He is not to be underestimated!
In Judo, you have submission holds. Moves where you place the other in intense pain until they tap out.
I fear that is what Putin is doing to the West.
It is clear now that Putin’s real danger is not in the pain he is about to inflict, but the pain he can endure.
I called him invading the Ukraine after the Kazakstan coup attempt which the Russian’s concluded was another Western attempt at hybrid war.
Putin is clearly looking to legacy and has planned for a conflict for at least 7 years.
Putin’s mentor Alexander Dugin has argued for the invasion of Ukraine…
Russian intellectual Alexander Dugin is the main architect of the neo-Russian imperialism called Eurasianism. In a series of lectures, articles, and books, Dugin has sought to “rehabilitate fascism in Russia.” He has borrowed from obscure 19th and 20th century political theories, adopted a sympathetic interpretation of Nazism that attempts to separate it from the Holocaust, and sought to thwart what he and many Russians believe is a conspiracy led by the United States to contain Russia. Dugin has called for a “Russian spring” and the domination of Europe through Ukraine.
…those who surround Putin all believe this grand destiny narrative…
Emboldened by perceptions of the West’s terminal decline, no one in this group loses much sleep about the prospect of an open-ended confrontation with America and Europe. In fact, the core members of this group would all be among the main beneficiaries of a deeper schism.
Consider Putin’s war cabinet, which is the locus of most decision-making. It consists of Nikolai Patrushev, the head of the Security Council; Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the FSB (the main successor agency of the KGB intelligence service); Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russian Foreign Intelligence Service; and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Their average age is 68 years old and they have a lot in common. The collapse of the Soviet Union, which Putin famously described as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, was the defining episode of their adult lives. Four out of five have a KGB background, with three, including the president himself, coming from the ranks of counterintelligence. It is these hardened men, not polished diplomats like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who run the country’s foreign policy.
In recent years, members of this group have become very vocal. Patrushev and Naryshkin frequently give lengthy interviews articulating their views on global developments and Russia’s international role. According to them, the American-led order is in deep crisis thanks to the failure of Western democracy and internal conflicts spurred by the promotion of tolerance, multiculturalism and respect for the rights of minorities.
…I think the cabal see themselves as part of 1000 year Christian tradition and that this war is for the soul of Russia.
We don’t appreciate the power and importance and motivator Russian Orthodox Christianity plays out in all of this.
In 988AD, Vladimir the Great, whom Putin takes his name from, mass baptised 1000 Russians at the River Nipro in what has become the founding spiritual moment in Orthodox Russian Christianity as the moment Russia became Christian and led to a cultural narrative structure that Moscow is the third Rome and was a homeland for Christianity.
What isn’t widely known is that Putin himself is a very staunch Russian Orthodox Christianand that he has used the Russian Orthodox Church as an enormous control mechanism over the Russian people.
Putin has spent billions rebuilding the Churches smashed down by Communism and uses his relationship with the Church for political advantage. It was the Orthodox Church who first praised Putin for annexing Crimea, a region with much religious importance for the Church.
Recently the Ukrainian branch of the Orthodox Church severed ties with the Russian branchbecause they felt Putin was having too much influence over it.
If Moscow is the third Rome, Kyiv is the second Jerusalem.
Putin sees himself as part of a long line of Christian Defenders of the true faith.
A new angry white Christianity is erupting here with intense violence, and misreading the drivers of Putin means we will fail at stopping him.
If Putin is doing this for God and the soul of Mother Russia, the dead are evidence of faith, not failure!
In 2017 he saw Dr Strangelove for the first time ever with Director Oliver Stone.
Last year he completed his Doomsday Bunker.
How Putin ‘wins’ is by expanding the conflict front in Serbia, and could give Iran the final nuclear technology that would trigger an Israeli attack on nuclear facilities in Iran.
I fear Putin wants to use an extreme event of violence to terrify NATO into freezing. I think that event will either be a battlefield Nuke, chemical weapons attack or bio-weapon.
After that event he will get the Ukraine to agree to anything and I think intends to isolate Russia from the West via cultural and Economic sanctions while he spreads chaos around the world as a major destabiliser.
I think Putin sees himself as a champion of the true Christian faith and the Lord of Chaos. Russia wins when global order collapses.
The real economic pain of the sanctions against Russia haven’t hit us yet, but they are coming.
$5 a litre petrol prices and $10 a loaf bread will cause massive damage here in NZ, imagine how it will impact the rest of the world?
The last time wheat prices were this high they caused a bread price destabilisation throughout the Middle East that sparked the Spring Uprising. Indeed the Collectivisation of the Ukrainian wheat harvests in the early 1930s had a knock on effect to the economic down turn that resulted in World War 2.
Putin is willing to take enormous economic pain right now to ultimately derail the global economy by the end of the year.
We want to keep telling ourselves Putin blundered, but if he is sick, if he sees this as part of a greater narrative, then him bullying his military into starting a war he knew would cost them mass loss of life to enable the conditions to start a much larger destabilisation campaign is an open question.
Fear the masochist who can switch into sadism.
This has every possibility of escalation.
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No need for complex conspiracy theories.
We can try and build theories for Russia’s ill fated expansion into Ukraine based Putin’s personal reasons and public excuses.
But complex conspiracy theories do not explain why China and the US are also at each others throats.
Putting it simply the bacteria have reached the edge of the Petrie dish. War is not a choice for growth economies when they can’t expand anymore, it is an imperative.
When growth economies can’t expand anymore the result is ecological collapse and war.
We have reached the limits of growth and are shitting in our own nest.
https://www.wwf.org.uk/myfootprint/challenges/will-there-be-more-plastic-fish-sea#:~:text=The%20amount%20of%20plastic%20in,rubbish%20even%20in%20the%20Arctic.
https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/7/graphic-carbon-dioxide-hits-new-high/
https://www.rand.org/paf/projects/us-china-competition.html
For a lot of young Americans joining the U.S. military is the completion of a life long dream. The U.S. military has it all, massive capital ships, legions of well provisioned troops which can not be challenged through out the entire planet.
There is a sense of satisfaction knowing that you are on the stronger and more powerful side.
Especially when there is a lot of state funded propoganda convincing you that trans people are the good guys.
And boy are these kids in for a huge surprise when they are eventually deployed.
Instead they will be thrown into conflicts where the biggest threats will be bordom and local wildlife.
Instead the very western observers that help Ukrainian soilders will eventually become there oppressors so how is the Ukraine campaign going?
Is America using its unmatched and superior capital ships and F-22 raptors, combined arm tactics and manouver warfare to create gaps that can be exploited by massive reserve forces of Ukrainian troops? No they’re not. Russia looks like the Somè with huge trenches stretching for miles. Mobile heavy weapons and precision guided munitions is supposed to turn a foxhole into a grave. How did that happen and well for one niether side has air superiority.
Ukraine has precision artillery and a lot of creativity but Russia is still saturating the battlefield with dumb bombs. The point is niether side can dislodge each other instead relying on good old fashion ground assaults and shows just how evenly matched Russia and Ukraine really are.
But that’s not what’s going on in Washington something is Clearly wrong with there command structure and doctrine which then reminds me of course it’s Putin that has created all this nonsense. While rooted in ligitimate greivance this conflict is what’s called “controlled opposition.” At every step of the way Putin knows what Washingtons larger strategy is going to be because Putin is creating it.
It actually doesn’t matter if the Ukraine army is functional or not Biden is just sitting back in the comfort of his lazy boy going pew pew pew.
We will never know if The United States army is functional or not. It’s a really well designed army but we will never know if it isn’t actually tested because Ukraine will always do exactly what Washington needs them to do. In stead the war in Ukraine is all about appearances and how the battles look instead of function and this is really a KGB colonels speciality.
There is no doubt that Putin and Washington are political masterminds but these skills really do not translate into how to create a functional military force.
So how are we relying on the skills of politicians to create military force?
Now politicians rely on bean counters, accountants, business case studies and yes men to create a military that has form over function as the best way to get people to obey as in let’s forget about nation building or troops for peacekeeping missions and forget about outreach building up local defence forces.
No Putin and Washington are just to lazy and unimaginative no instead they make examples out of Ukrain, chechnya, Afghanistan and Iraq by carrying out massive resource raids on them that people will suddenly listen because they fear explosions.
Politicians are exceptionally niave in there approach to how to deal with there fellow human beings. Instead of preventing the war in Ukraine from growing they’ve become recruiters.
So how could such naive and incompotent individuals rise so high up the pyramid of power and well it’s the same reason as why you would call “pregnant woman, “birthing people,” and it’s for the same reason why America spends a huge portion of Global GDP on the military. It’s a lack of checks and balances. It’s a lack of truth. It’s a lack of voices to counter the stupid ideas of religion and cults.
I know you guys hear me say woke a lot. But Putin, Xi, Kim, Biden, they are real things. Authoritarian regimes are always going to be less efficient and less compotent than a population that shares power, like a liberal democratic society. It’s not that liberal democracy is morally superior it just tends to be but that’s not the point. From a more rational view liberal democracy is just far more flexible than an authoritarian regime.
On a civic tech tree authoritarianism would be the base technology in which to form a government created by cavemen back in the day. It’s basically one man creating everything and deciding for everyone because there is one person in charge that those individuals just spends time maintaining his power instead of just governing.
Naturally these individuals target there critics first. By getting rid of critics your own people no longer have a voice. Parents can’t talk about perverts brainwashing there children into cutting flesh away from there forearms in order to make penises that don’t work amongst other things. Bomber can’t talk to the media about the terrible vice grips put on poor people and Damien All Tax is Theft Grant isn’t listened to about Kiwis being used as accounting tricks.
Public descent would have forced Chippie to change his tactics or maybe withdraw New Zealand away from China and America into a complete Neutrality Pact. And so a War in Ukraine that should have revolutionised military battle tactics and is a successful staging ground for building nations has turned into another battle of Verdun for completely no reason.
The best way to understand Putin’s motives/plan/actions is to understand ours. What are our goals? Our history is a solid guide to this. We…want to claim Russia’s resources, Russia being thee most resource rich country in the world after all, and subjugate its people anyway we see fit. That’s our history, that is our plan, with the USA and the UK the chief architects of this plan. A bit of political meddling, that has led to a manufactured war that pits Ukrainian rather than Western forces against Russia is a nice way to achieve our ends. Other non-western forces most likely will be thrown into the fire before we ever contemplate using our forces to achieve our goals. There, this is what Putin/Russia is planning for…how to stop all of the above. Simple.
Russian military expansion into Ukraine is old style colonial land grab by a ‘have not’ imperialist power.
….the “taproot of imperialism” is not in nationalist pride, but in Capitalism. As a form of economic organization, imperialism is unnecessary and immoral, the result of the mis-distribution of wealth in a capitalist society. That created an irresistible desire to extend the national markets into foreign lands, in search of profits greater than those available in the Mother Country.
The brutal tactics and methods of imperialism, subjugation and conquest, are the same for all imperialists. The Russian imperialists are no different.
Should we ignore all the atrocities inflicted on the Ukrainian people by the Russian invaders?
Should we believe all the Russian war propaganda demonising the Ukrainian people as Nazis and fascists used to justify these atrocities?
Should we deny the Ukraine people’s right to self determination and resistance to a brutal foreign invasion?
According to AO we should, because the West is just as bad.
Unarmed Ukrainian civilians confront invading Russian imperialist troops.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgmKygmkqSA&ab_channel=RadioFreeEurope%2FRadioLiberty
From the video feed.
“Go home Russian soldier, go back home!”
“Savages! Savages!”
“You’re armed we are not. Come on, shoot at us.”
“Yes it is easy to attack those who are unarmed”
“Get the fuck out of here.”
“Why did you come here? How are you not ashamed?”
“It’s you that’s fascist, not us.
“Go Home! Go Home!
“Get out of here. Get out. Back to your Russia!
Don’t be a shoddy apologist for imperialism like AO
You’re the apologist my friend, forever believing imperialist media. Again, this is simple, just look at history, or take a gander at one of the USA’s many, well publicized plans for Russia et all.
Strangely enough, your first comment was partially right. There are limits to growth, but in this instance, the USA is using their war economy to do something about this (their failing economy). There are riches to be had from Russia and there’s a mighty big country (China) who’s growth is impeding the growth of the world’s sole superpower. They realize that something needs to be done, so something is being done, and there are plans all over the show that documents these actions.
The world’s only superpower is failing and it does not care who it drags down in order to preserve their highly privileged position atop of the world.
On the 24th of February 2022 the Russian imperialists invaded Ukraine.
AO tries to make us believe a counterfactual narrative that the US imperialists invaded Russia.
“….the USA is using their war economy to do something about this (their failing economy). There are riches to be had from Russia and there’s a mighty big country (China) who’s growth is impeding the growth of the world’s sole superpower. They realize that something needs to be done, so something is being done, and there are plans all over the show that documents these actions. AO
Like the other pro-imperialist war trolls that infest this site. AO never provides any links to the plans and documents he claims expose US “actions which he claims are all over the show. Not one link is provided, Not one title or author or source are cited for his mythical alternative history.
If these documents exposing US “actions” actually exist and are “all over the show” why can’t AO provide us with even just one.
Instead this anonymous troll expects us to just accept on his word that these documents and plans exist of these US actions.
On his word alone AO wants us to suspend our disbelief and accept his alternative narrative that the US is the aggressor in this war.
Alternative histories are a popular genre of fiction that ask for a suspension of disbelief from the reader. Alternative histories are always written some decades after the real events, and never while people are still being bombed and killed by the actual invader. And alternative histories written as a speculative ‘What if’ and not as a cynical cover for the killers.
Don’t make this about me, my friend, make it about what I say…I provide more than enough material/opinion for people to easily take this to task, if they so choose. The fact that the man has being played here and not the ball – speaks for itself.
Thank you.
Ridiculous all these Orientalist or Cold War numbhead excuses we have to suffer from “the Civilised West”.
Every opinion or thought about Russia or any country the West doesn’t like is solely justified on the empty corrupt lie: “because we are the good guys.” That’s all the logic anyone who calls an interlocutor an “assadist” or “Putinist” needs to turn their back on the obvious perverse – so inverted I’d say satanic – hypocrisy of the West.
Gee Martyn That is a very scary scenario.
Pussy.
Whatever rationalisations and weird medieval narrative Vladimir Putin spins. This individual, is the chosen political opportunist, representative of the mafia type oligarchy that typifies Russian capitalism. As such Putin the servant of the material needs of Russian capitalism, to expand, to gain new resources, secure export markets, trade domination, all in competition with Russian capitalism’s foreign economic and military rivals.
…..you could feel the 1000 years of orthodox Christianity which he slavishly adheres to holding him to a torturous equation.
Yeah Right. Good story.
From militant atheist communist KGB officer to slavish orthodox Christian.
https://www.politico.eu/article/putins-holy-war/
…a controversial Russian law that makes it a criminal offense to “insult the feelings of religious believers.” Approved by President Vladimir Putin in June 2013, the law stipulates up to a year in jail for “insulting” acts that occur outside a place of worship. Those that happen inside are punishable by up to three years behind bars….
….The law was greeted with horror by Russian liberals, as well as more progressive Russian Orthodox Christians, who see it as further evidence of the erosion of the separation of church and state enshrined in Russia’s constitution. Although Putin was a KGB officer in an officially atheist Soviet Union, he has forged ties with the Russian Orthodox Church in a bid to create something resembling a national ideology. Last year, he appointed ultra-conservative Orthodox believers to top education ministry and children’s rights posts…..
Putin is opportunistically treading a well worn path.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/german-bishops-said-to-admit-complicity-in-nazi-actions-in-new-report/
Both Hitler and Churchill were atheists, like Putin both leaders where not above mobilising support for their war effort by taking part in religious observances and invoking God’s blessing for their cause, and in Hitler’s case exploiting sectarian religious hatreds.
“From militant atheist communist KGB officer to slavish orthodox Christian.”
Disagree totally, go read the Master and the Margarita. He is a man well hidden, a political beast trained in purist hell, East German. Putin has hidden his religious beliefs all his life, and they have been this extreme all his life. He is a totally a Russian Orthodox Christian. Or as we call them in the Orthodox Community Paranoid Fundamentalists, much in the same ilk as the the US ones, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Southland, and the liberal party in Australia.
Nope Putin is a dye in the wool Christian, and I think his head is far into the book of Revelations, like to many. Has been since youth. Now he can be open about it, and it helps him with his political base.
Will he burn the world to get rid of Greedy people, yeah he just might. I know I want them gone. As a Orthodox myself, burning anything really helps – could be seen as a sign of letting some demon whisper in your ear. Or just plan bloody villainous for you atheists. But then again, being a Christian I have this thing with Greed and how utterly destructive it is. Inflation is a good example, the majority of inflation is driven by Greed. Any Greed which can manifest in many ways. Marx is totally right on this point, Fiscal Greed is wholly the ruin of people. Just look at the under class we have in NZ – distorted wreaks of individuals and indeed whole families. How Greed of the few, sucking resources into their den removes the ability for money to be used just as a means of exchange.
Wandering off topic. Back to Vald. He is, and always been a fundamentalist Orthodox Russian. Nothing much has changed. Once in the clique…
First there was America’s coup in 2014 which installed the comic dwarf in the Ukraine and the expansion of Nato since the USSR disbanded. Imagine what America would do if Russia or China had military bases on their border….oh that’s right the missile’s in Cuba in the 60’s. They really did shit their pants on that one.
Engalnd has sent depleted uranium with their tanks to Ukraine and who will this harm? (Check John Pilger on u tube) Everyone on both sides. As usual the innocents are the victims and the imperialists in the West continue to build their empires. Remember the illegal war in Iraq that left blood on the hands of Bush and Blair plus the deaths of over 1m children. Where next for the axis of evil……. oh thats right China! Time for Biden’s next fall.
Ockham’s Razor would suggest that Putin thought that Ukraine would roll over. The same went for Georgia and the previous invasion and annexation of Crimea.
What has happened is that the Russian military has been exposed as a paper tiger, on a par with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. They have lots of hardware, but it isn’t very good and they are otherwise a poorly organised rabble.
And in the meantime Zelenskyy, having been supplied with billions of dollars worth of military hardware by the evil empire, tours the the world begging, like Oliver Twist, for more.
[This individual, is the chosen political opportunist, representative of the mafia type oligarchy that typifies Russian capitalism.]
When Putin came to power he told the oligarchs they could keep their ill gotten wealth, but they had to keep their noses out of politics (unlike in the evil empire whose government resides in the pockets of the the country’s corporations – and particularly of Wall Street). One of the oligarchs, Mikhail khordokovski, refused to play ball and started financing a political party. He was subsequently defenestrated. So much for the notion that Putin is in cahoots with the oligarchs.
Nathan, you can get RT news. Simple matter of googling.
For how long remains to be seen, in this far-flung outpost of the Free World.
Meanwhile look what was said at the Russian Foreign Briefing by Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Maria Zakharova, Moscow, June 7, 2023
https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1886061/#12
(machine translation)
On the crimes of the British colonialists against the Maori
The cruelty with which the British (who now teach everyone, demand something, ascribe to themselves the right to a moral assessment) pursued their colonial policy is well known to the peoples of the world. At least it was known to those who were interested in it.
The vast colonial empire was literally an inexhaustible source of fabulous enrichment for the ruling classes of Britain. Mainly due to the merciless exploitation of the conquered territories, the successful socio-economic development of the country was ensured. For many of these crimes, London has not yet apologized. What to say about financial compensation.
Historians remind: faced with the resistance of indigenous peoples, the British colonialists in the past were often forced to, if not negotiate with them, then at least seriously revise their line. One such example is the Maori in New Zealand.
Joined in the first quarter of the XIX century. to the active development of the New Zealand islands, the British were interested in local fertile lands. This, as expected, led to disagreements with the Maori, who resolutely stood up to protect the lands of their ancestors. The British colonialists, who were at first in the minority, far from the mother country and bases with weapons, decided not to aggravate the situation and, having veiled their predatory colonial plans, tried to give them the appearance of legality.
In February 1840, in the Maori village of Waitangi, an agreement was signed, according to which, in exchange for recognition of the power of the British crown, the Maori received documents for land and the rights of British subjects in the courts – from a human rights point of view, by the way, a very revolutionary decision for that time, in no way fit into the brutal colonial policy of the British in other parts of the world. However, it was just another “screen”. The same staging, which in July 2022 in an article for the newspaper “Izvestia” was written by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia S.V. Lavrov. London then did not ratify the document, which is indicative of today’s policy of the “collective West”, and the British courts declared it null and void. How convenient it is to deceive the local population, and disavow all this in the metropolis.
Having received a temporary respite, the British colonialists then began to actively appropriate the lands of the indigenous people, which provoked a national uprising. As a result, the so-called. New Zealand land wars 1845-1872 more than 2.1 thousand Maori and almost 800 Britons died. The most dramatic episode was the Titokovar uprising (from June 1868 to March 1869). During its suppression, the British did not limit themselves in their methods, acting with their characteristic cruelty, pitting the Maori tribes against each other. Although, as a result of these wars, London achieved its goals – about 16 thousand km² of fertile land belonging to the Maori were confiscated in favor of the colonial administration, British army units were withdrawn from New Zealand. Subsequently, London was forced to return to the Waitangi agreements and begin the procedure for paying compensation, which has not yet been completed. Great story.
The very people who are now demanding compensation, reparations, came up with the tribunal. You pay off the Maori. They are from the 1840s. are waiting. I am addressing official London – as soon as you settle accounts with the Maori, immediately proceed not to us, to the Iraqis. We must also repent before them, apologize and also start compensatory payments. Then we will discuss the claims in our direction. We will have something to present to London.
In our opinion, something else is important. The warlike spirit, courage and perseverance of the Maori allowed this people not to repeat the fate of many other victims of the British colonialists, in particular, the completely exterminated natives of neighboring Tasmania. Or deported by the Americans to the Indian reservations of North America. Through a determined struggle for their national independence, the Maori have won considerable rights for themselves. Today, in New Zealand, they make up almost 17% of the population (850.5 thousand people out of 5 million of the country’s population). They protect their way of life, preserve their language and culture, and have guaranteed representation in the legislative bodies of the country. Maori representatives hold high positions in the government of New Zealand.
Maori also support anti-colonial initiatives, incl. aimed at obtaining financial compensation for the peoples who suffered from the arbitrariness of the British colonialists. One of the last such petitions demanding an “official apology” and “damages” signed by representatives of 12 countries was addressed to King Charles III of Great Britain in early May of this year.
We are convinced that the time has long come for official London to recognize the mistakes of its colonial past. It’s time to get down to business.
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