“THE COALITION OF CHAOS”, that’s how Matthew Hooton and the right-wing commentariat are describing the putative Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori parliamentary alliance. Which is a contradiction, of sorts, since the notion of New Zealanders voting in favour of chaos is, on its face, nonsensical. Then again, Hooton is more than shrewd enough to grasp that the mood of the electorate may be sufficiently volatile to generate precisely this result. As he has pointed out in recent commentaries, the combined vote of the two main parties, at 70 percent, is historically low. Nearly a third of electorate is “grumpy”. That’s a lot of pissed-off people. Chaos is an option.
But, Hooton’s chaos will only eventuate if Te Pāti Māori and, to a lesser extent, the Greens, are able to attract the support of a great many more young and/or disillusioned voters than usually make it to the polling-booth. Since neither party has the political organisation to mobilise a mass vote on their own, a higher than usual turn-out on 14 October will be a sociological – not a psephological – phenomenon. For some as-yet-unrecognised reason, tens-of-thousands of young and/or marginalised citizens will have arrived at the same conclusion: this time, casting a vote will make a difference.
What could lead them to such a conclusion? Paradoxically, it could be the Right’s crazy-screaming-horror campaign against the “Coalition of Chaos”.
Between them, National and Act already have approximately $7 million to spend – most of it over the next four months. More than enough to spread crazy-screaming-horror far and wide. Undoubtedly “Middle New Zealand” will run wild-eyed into the arms of the Right, terrified that a bloodthirsty mob of socialists, anarchists and revanchist Māori are coming for the family trust. The question is: will such a scare campaign only make those voters who were already walking towards National and Act break into a panic-stricken sprint? Who will it get them that they haven’t already got?
Advertisers – including political advertisers – generally create their product with a specific demographic in mind. The message they craft is for that particular demographic, and if they get the message, then the ad is counted a success. But, most ads contain multiple messages which, in the demographics not specifically targeted, may excite responses which were not in any way anticipated by their makers.
An ad for a motor vehicle retailing for $80,000, for example, will not be framed for a person living on the dole. And yet, such a person may well see the ad. He or she may notice that the people driving the luxury vehicle are all beautiful, thin, and moving through a physical and social landscape light-years from their own. The fast-moving sequence of images may, therefore, arouse intense feelings of exclusion and deprivation: angry fantasies of conquest and vengeance. Not at all what the ad’s makers intended.
In much the same way, a party political message contrived to inspire crazy-screaming-horror in middle-class Pakeha women who usually vote National, but who gave a vote-of-thanks to “Jacinda” in 2020, may convey a very different message to angry young Māori determined to escape from the impoverished environment in which they feel imprisoned. If the prospect of Te Pāti Māori becoming part of a governing coalition strikes such abject fear into the hearts of the Pakeha, then casting a vote for TPM might begin to look like a very good idea.
If the Left is smart, it will take a leaf out of the playbook of those who campaigned in favour of adopting MMP. Arguably the most effective pro-MMP poster stated simply: “If you’re looking for a good reason to vote in favour of MMP, just take a look at the people who want you to vote against it.” By the same logic, if National, Act, and the whole right-wing establishment are trying to scare New Zealanders into voting against a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori government, then maybe that’s the best possible reason to vote for their “Coalition of Chaos”.
Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori might also decide to simply turn the tables on National and Act by spelling out for the electorate the chaotic consequences of a right-wing victory predicated on thinly-disguised racism, climate-change denial, and the upper-classes’ mortal fear of being required to pay their fair share of tax.
Te Pāti Māori, in particular, could politely enquire of National and Act how they propose to squeeze a million aspirational Māori back into the colonial box from which they have only just begun to emerge?
The Greens could demand to know how a National-Act Government was planning to explain to the rest of the world why Aotearoa-New Zealand isn’t pulling its weight on climate change?
And Labour could invite the voters to decide which combination of parties had the best chance of dealing effectively and fairly with the urgent and inescapable challenges of delivering ethnic, social and ecological equity to Aotearoa-New Zealand: National-Act, or Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori?
That the two ideological blocs remain so close in terms of their overall voter support (see the latest Taxpayers Union-Curia poll) suggests that very close to half of the electorate knows that Aotearoa-New Zealand must change. Business-as-usual sounds wonderful, as does the return of racial harmony, and the weather getting back to normal. But, deep-down, half the population understands that a “return to normalcy” is not a realistic proposition. Maybe the other half, the half telling the pollsters that they intend to vote for National and Act, also know that things cannot go on as they are, but they’re resentful that so many difficult changes have fallen to their generation, and frightened that they may not be equal to the task.
Raising the spectre of a “Coalition of Chaos” offers this apprehensive half of the electorate an acceptable excuse for running away from the changes every New Zealander should be steeling themselves to embrace on 14 October. The changes necessitated by the Treaty. The changes necessitated by Climate Change. The changes necessitated by the extreme disparities of wealth in Aotearoa-New Zealand.
That what makes the expression so despicable. Electing a National-Act coalition government won’t protect New Zealanders from chaos, indeed, the probability is that swinging hard to the right it will only make their lives more chaotic. Change may be delayed for a while, but it cannot be denied indefinitely. Those who try to stop it are almost always overwhelmed by it.
In chaos there is fertility. Out of chaos new worlds quicken and grow.
Thanks Chris, there’s obviously some truth in what you say, the problem is the maths. There simple aren’t enough people sufficiently concerned about the issues that obsess the TMP and Greens. According to the September ISPOS survey the top five issues currently concerning New Zealanders are: inflation / cost of living, followed by housing / price of housing, healthcare, crime and the economy.
TMP and Green, their delusional hard core supporters excepted, have serious credibility issues and most “disillusionment” with the status quo will be directed at the party that has held the reins of power for six years or so. Their incompetence will be their undoing. Debbie voting against her own bill in parliament says it all, the coalition of chaos pretty much sums it up.
“ACT and National, their delusional hard core supporters excepted, have serious credibility issues”
There, that’s better.
Sometimes you need to destroy the village in order to save it.
To say TPM represents all Maori is like Shaneel Lal represents all Trans. Most people in both groups want to get on with their lives and don’t like the drama of the activists.
The other side are looking at their kids and grandkids being legally second class citizens ( see Mcnulty). Most people will fight as hard as it takes to protect family .
They see this election as their last chance to stop the revolution
Going to get very nasty
It’s pretty tired now Chris casting any criticism of proposals to disenfranchise a swathe of the NZ electorate as ‘thinly disguised racism’. Taking most of my vote away is racist in the extreme. In their revanchism and their ingratiation TPM and Labour have proven clearly who the real offenders are.
So ‘coalition of chaos’ originated from Matthew Hooton?
Didn’t think Luxon had the inventiveness of such a phrase when he uttered it.
Sounds very Hootonish to me and no way Luxon coined it.
Yes – if the disenfranchised can be convinced not to vote then the right wing parties usually succeed at election time. Conversely, if they can be motivated to vote, then the centre-left coalition have a chance.
Thank you Chris for another well presented analysis. Your reward seems scant judging by the comments but hopefully many people read and then think on the issues you raise.
As the current Ford ad on TV says; If you do what you’ve always done, you’ll get what you’ve always got”, so it is with our so-called democracy. It’s a sham, a game of smoke and mirrors in which a choice of diverse political parties, touted as epitomizing democracy’s highest ideals, actually mitigates against them ever being realized. Polarizing people into vested interest groups, that’s not democracy – that’s anarchy. And that’s just how our system likes it – divide and rule. And as this and other worthy writers worry away at their word processors, the system laughs in their face. That this website needs to exist is itself an example of how the system controls and corrals the narrative. To paraphrase whoever said it; “It’s the system stupid!”
To be fair the Labour party and connection with the greens is chaos. How will this improve with a third party if they cannot do it now as two parties?
Compared to the two corrupt parties of ACT and National chaos will win everytime.
All parties are corrupt. Rest is conjecture.
Back up the bus. What has Labour achieved in the past 5 and a half years on the big items, housing, health, education, transport, inequity, homelessness, water quality, law and order? On these items it campaigned in 2017, broadly, we’ve gone backwards!
In 2020, they didn’t really stand for much more than finishing the job free of the NZ First hand brake. Well they got an absolute majority and still what did they achieve? Not much of anything but eye watering government debt from spend ups that appear to have achieved little.
I voted for them, both times and am truly disappointed and would say probably they are the most inept government in history. I have seen no indication under Hipkins that anything is different.
As for the things not campaigned on, co-governance, meaning 3 Waters as some obscure extreme bureaucratic solution apparently to water quality, these have seen race relations plummet.
So the petty identity politics male hating woke navel gazing Greens or the race party TPM aside, how is voting for the “left” going to benefit this country again?
All National and ACT have to do is point out the bloody, multi-dimensional mess the country is now in, then compare it to the stability and national progress we had under Key.
“the stability and national progress we had under Key.”
We have a nice new white suit waiting for you Andrew, it buttons up at the back.
I bet Key had a good stable grip of that waitress.
I love how Key progressed home ownership to include living in cars and health infrastructure that included water running down Hospital walls,
Geez Andrew, you are a very, very warped soul.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1110/S00207/john-key-admits-to-lying.htm
https://e2nz.org/2014/08/21/the-big-list-of-john-keys-lies/
I’m not sure what you are up to Free Peach – seem too laid-back cynical and sardonic. We are talking about us peeps here, not an Oscar Wilde play. Some humour and irony yes.
Not flitting around taking pot shots at silly old human systems that have obvious holes in them that peeps deliberately ignore; no way to run an election discussion.
You are too much like a butterfly, not even a monarch good to look at, but more like a large cabbage white one that I yearn to take a tennis racket to but it’s too quickly past. I think your approach is unhelpful free peach and I want weightier thoughts that don’t float off in the air like bad smells.
You didn’t mention New Zealand First. lol
This morning at 7:26 am Stuff Author Steve Kilallon lists Te Pāti Maori coalition demands
“No GST on food, no monarchy, tax the rich: Te Pāti Māori’s demands for coalition” Steve Kilgallon 07:26, May 12 2023
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/132012971/no-gst-on-food-no-monarchy-tax-the-rich-te-pti-moris-demands-for-coalition
Just over an hour later, at 8:05 am, instead of evaluating Te Pāti Māori substantive position on GST and taxing the rich, leading Labour Party activist Greg Presland, (AKA MICKYSAVAGE) gives his automatic Labour Party kneejerk response.
Greg Presland deliberately leaves out Te Pāti Māori flagship policies above, instead listing 12 Te Pāti Māori policies not mentioned anywhere in the Stuff report by Steve Kilgallon.
Lying by omission.
Deliberately not addressing the main social justice demands of Te Pāti Māori, The Standard author Mickysavage is taking a page straight out of the National Party racist scare playbook.
“What Do The Maori Party Want Anyway?” By: MICKYSAVAGE – Date published: 8:05 am, May 12th, 2023
https://thestandard.org.nz/what-do-the-maori-party-want-anyway/#comment-1949509
The options for Left leaning and Centre voters is clear, vote Labour or National for Business as Usual.
Vote Te Pati Maori for social justice.
Yesterday Greg Presland didn’t want to talk about the Te Pāti Māori social justice reforms, today Cristopher Luxon doesn’t want to talk about Te Pāti Māori social justice reforms.
Neither National or Labour want to form a coalition government with Te Pāti Māori if it means having to address social injustice and inequality.
Evidentially both Labour and National don’t even want to talk about the social justice reforms raised by Te Pāti Māori.
At a media conference called by Christopher Luxon, at which the National Party leader accused Te Pāti Māori of grandstanding and ruled them out as coalition partners, Luxon, too, wanted the focus shifted.
Anna Whyte, Stuff.co.nz 05:00, May 13 2023
So Greg Presland and Labour are not the only one that want to shift the focus away from Te Pāti Māori social justice reforms for forming a coalition government.
Greg Presland’s attempt to shift the focus away from Te Pāti Māori social justice demands for forming a government, have been joined by National’s Christopher Luxon.
Luxon angrily demanded the media shift their focus away from the possibility of him being forced into the uncomfortable position (for National), of having to negotiate with Te Pāti Māori over social justice reforms if they want to form a government.
“What New Zealanders need right now is none of this stuff, none of this stuff that’s been happening over the last week.’’
When a reporter later asked if it would make his job harder to pull the numbers to form a government, Luxon bafflingly replied, “I know you guys want to talk about that stuff.
Anna Whyte, Stuff.co.nz 05:00, May 13 2023
Labour and National don’t want to talk about “that stuff”. But we do.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/132023807/parliament-full-of-fingerpointing-grandstanding-as-the-reality-of-climate-change-bites
“There has been a disturbance in the force.”
Both Labour and National’s neoliberal certainty has been challenged.
Labour Party Leader Chris Hipkins tries to scare the electorate away from voting Te Pati Moari by saying he will not agree with Te Pati Maori coalition terms, to remove GST from food, or tax the rich or form a truely independent foreign policy free from the British Crown and US military nuclear and spying pacts like AUKUS and 5 Eyes.
“Smaller parties, I think, need to be careful with whatever they issue in terms of ‘bottom lines’ or they could find themselves simply not able to be part of any governing arrangement at all,” Chris Hipkins
With this above statement Chris Hipkins is threatening the electorate that he will let National and Act form a coalition government before he would form a coalition government that had to agree to help New Zealanders with the cost of living by removing GST off food.
With this above statement Chris Hipkins is threatening the electorate that he will let National and Act form a coalition government before he would form a coalition government that had to agree to increase taxes on the rich to pay their fair share.
With this above statement Chris Hipkins is threatening the electorate that he will let National and Act form a coalition government before he would form a coalition government that had to agree to New Zealand having a truly independent foreign policy, free of nuclear and spying pacts.
Chris Hipkins tells Māori Party to be ‘careful’ with policy demands Glenn McConnell, Stuff.co.nz 16:01, May 12 2023
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/132027968/chris-hipkins-tells-mori-party-to-be-careful-with-policy-demands
Te Pāti Māori has issued its list of coalition demands, but Prime Minister Chris Hipkins looks to be calling their bluff…..
Calling their bluff can only be by threatening to let National ACT govern. Pretty disgusting stuff from the Labour Party Leader.
If we want Hipkins and the Labour Party to take seriously the Left wing demands raised by Te Pati Maori, contrary to what Hipkins wants, the biggest left vote possible that can’t ignore must be delivered to Te Pati Maori.
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