Boom!
The latest Roy Morgan Poll is out and the Māori Party are kingmakers again.
LABOUR – 30%
NATIONAL – 32%
GREENS – 12%
ACT – 12.5%
Māori Party – 4.5%
NZF – 4.5%
TOP – 2%
These numbers suggest National offering Shane an Epsom cup of tea in Northland is worth the consideration.
The Greens peculiar brand of hating white cis males and strangling Free Speech is a winner on the Roy Morgan numbers (a number I just don’t believe btw), but it’s the Māori Party who have constantly polled well in the Roy Morgan that is interesting.
With the cost of living crisis so intense and with Labour doing very little, the Māori Party promise to remove GST from food and tax the rich has electoral appeal.
The polling from the Taxpayers’ Union, TVNZ and Newshub are all due out next week, if these trends follow, this election will be decided by the fringes, not the middle.
There’s no way the Greens are on 12%.
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Maybe Martyn, people think differently about strangling free speech”. Assuming you are referring to Albert Park they might think “trannys” getting agro is unacceptable but it is adults behaving badly of their own accord not because some party told them to. As for Davidsons comment I think if you were actually a supporter of hers before Albert Park you are kind of ok with stupid anyway.
I am shocked there are 12 percent in support of zGreens i would have thought it would be hard to find 12 people in support of the Greens
Yes a good snapshot for the Greens.
What % refused to answer?
What % are just f#$#king with the pollsters?
What % change their mind every poll?
What % know the policies that the party they are backing are taking into the election?
What makes up the other 9%
More questions than answers aye.
Good comment.
Re: “What % are just f#$#king with the pollsters?”
In my continuing efforts to blow up the woke and it’s racist discriminatory philosophy. I am an “unemployed 18year old Trans Maori” whenever it comes to responding to polls, questionnaires, feedback etc….
In reality I am a…..well I’ll leave you to guess at that!
The rule is; Polls are great when they support your particular views and suck when the reverse applies. Polls are generally run by for profit companies and should always be treated with caution.
But I’ll say it again…the Green brand is strong enough to have a number of MPs remain in Parliament this year, regardless of professional pundits and infantile online loud mouths and trolls.
I wish you were wrong but I think you’re right.
There are enough people who will tick the “green” box without really thinking it through. I don’t think the recent stupidities have stained the green brand sufficiently to break through to the wider demos.
Comes down to Winston. Labour are in a pickle. Drop 3 waters and co-governance and court Peters but lose their Maori caucus. Or hold their line and watch Peters deliver his post-ardern Utu.
Fried Irish Duck would appear a must in any post-election discourse.
The herd of elephants in the room is Christopher Luxon. He is the reason National are misfiring and they know it. So what do they do, this close to race day too? I see Hooton speaking up last week, off the back of Prebble. The oompa loompa’s are getting restless!
But Winston, eh? On the home straight, surging forward. That tells me there is defecting from both the Nats and Labour and Labour more so because the more they have to dance with the Greens and TPM, the more he’ll thrive!
Weirdly if they put Winston in charge of National, Natz would probably get a huge surge in the polls.
Many people are working hard in NZ, having mortgage debt and looking at neighbours that have not contributed a cent to NZ society who then make out they are the victims! The first political party who captures those people with real policy and not just marketing spin, (Winston tends to do well at that but is nobbled by Shane Jones), will get enough edge to wipe out the so called kingmakers.
In addition most polls now are completely wrong, Brexit, OZ, US elections etc.
Why Polls Were Mostly Wrong
Princeton’s Sam Wang had to eat his words (and a cricket) in 2016. He talks about the impacts of the pandemic and QAnon on public-opinion tallies in 2020
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-polls-were-mostly-wrong/
(In another weird twist, the pollsters than get it completely wrong, are then asked their opinions again by media – it’s like lets get our opinions off those proven to be wrong!).
Will Australia’s opinion polls be more accurate in 2022 than at the last election?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/16/will-australias-opinion-polls-be-more-accurate-in-2022-than-at-the-last-election
So you want welfare chopped then? No work no eat. If you get sick, hard luck.
They need to dump Luxon. Then it will all look very different.
Every single worker in this country deserves a payrise. Every year. Like 40 years ago. National and ACT will make sure that no one get a payrise every again.
They will also privatise healthcare, cut benefits and sell off state housing. All we will get is a dog eat dog society in which only the strong survive.
Note that in the 1990’s when we had low inflation, hardly anyone had a payrises.
5 percent pay rise 7 percent inflation spells decline ..and a Labour government
3 percent pay rise 2 percent inflation spells happy campers and a National government
Millsy, it’s already a very bad poddle eat poodle society. The Nurses and Teachers will get paid more under Nat’s anyway.
Really? I think the nursing education loan relief will be seen as an alternative
We can tell its election time the NZ media always seems to put the boot into the Greens at this time as do the right-wing commentators. As for Meka switching parties this does not surprise me she is merely aligning herself with a party that shares similar views and ideology. I am on the Māori roll and in the Ikaroa Rawhiti area and I will give Meka my vote again this election, but I will be giving Chippy my Party vote at this stage primarily as I don’t want Act and National in power again. I can see our country going backwards under the Nacts. Both the National and Act parties have shown they care mainly about the rich and we all know the trickle down does not trickle down it trickles up. In fact, many millionaires globally became billionaires, and this tends to occur when there is a war or epidemic event. We only have to look at what has happened in Russia. Why some dumb NZers like Trevor above continue to call the Māori party racist when our entire political, judicial, social and economic systems are founded and based on racism and discriminative practices justifies the need for a Māori political party.
The voters in this country are like children playing with fireworks.
They have absolutely no clue as to the level of damage done by the current government and what a catastrophe a left/brown/green government would be.
Expect the best & brightest to abandon ship is this eventuates.
As a voter, you are childlike, correct. The best and brightest left during the Key years, thus NZ needing to import all genre of workers.
A right yellow/blue government would be cataclysmic for the country.
Thats good my comments appear to have upset you Andrew now you are saying our so-called bests and brightest may abandon ship if they don’t get there way perhaps, they will look for a tax haven.
I assume that the Greens have been strengthened by Labour’s move to the right. Not sure that the Posie Parker / trans stuff is what most people vote on, tho’ it’s great for interminable ranting on social media.
Yup i think you are right, cup of tea in Northland otherwise National will lose the election.
I think there’s a “shy right” effect with these polls – i.e. the Lab/Green/TPM vote is being overestimated.
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