The last two polls paint a hung Parliament.
The intensity and polarisation currently inside our political landscape will erupt when the full force of the global economic meltdown kicks in.
I think 15% Food inflation by June is a real possibility.
The true impact of the fragility of the Global Economy isn’t understood or appreciated.
The ingredients for stagflation are here waiting to ignite.
This is going to cause voters to demand more in terms of solutions than the agreed neoliberal straightjacket Labour and National are locked into.
The fringes are where this election will be won.
Northland Epsom deal for Shane?:
Nothing says National are considering an Epsom deal in Northland to ensure NZ First win an electorate and bring in coat tail MPs quite like dear old Shane Jones attacking the meth bros in a violent crime before all the facts are known. Shane understands how powerful the tough on crime song and dance routine from a Māori can be. A deal where National has a cup of tea with Shane to ensure an Epsom arrangement happens would ward off an over excited ACT from demanding too much if National can hide behind Winston.
Māori Party brashly stalk South Auckland General Electorate Seats:
The confidence inside the Māori Party is phenomenally high and you can see that with a tactic to run someone as powerful as Louisa Wall in Manurewa and Dave Letele in Māngere. This election the Māori Party intend to target Labour South Auckland general electorate fortresses and they have a realistic chance of taking them!
Expect the Māori Party rot surprise on election night.
Raf Manji is a very likeable, very smart, uber cosmopolitan voice of reason and genuine commitment to see some real fundamental change. He is Cabinet Level entry ready and has remarkable intellectual muscle.
You want this guy at the top table.
TOPs pragmatism is going to be and is being, incredibly attractive to many voters who are burnt by National and Labour.
With Brownlee standing down, Raf has a real chance of taking Ilam and by doing so, bring in a coat tail of maybe as many as 3 or 4 MPs.
That would give TOP an enormous amount of political leverage.
So much so, it would be stupid for Chippy to rule out a cup of tea with Raf in Ilam in the lead up to the election to ensure his win and MPs to give Labour room to negotiate amongst the Māori Party and Greens.
If Chippy is serious about rebuilding and future proofing NZ from climate change while boosting public services, he is going too require a Broadchurch of Parties.
Labour might gain 51% with Greens and Māori Party, but that gives those Parties enormous leverage post election. If TOP were added to that 51%, not only does Labour manage to temper the zeal from the Left, he brings middle NZ via TOP with Labour.
Labour strategists need to step up and start using MMP strategically.
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