The last two polls paint a hung Parliament.
The intensity and polarisation currently inside our political landscape will erupt when the full force of the global economic meltdown kicks in.
I think 15% Food inflation by June is a real possibility.
The true impact of the fragility of the Global Economy isn’t understood or appreciated.
The ingredients for stagflation are here waiting to ignite.
This is going to cause voters to demand more in terms of solutions than the agreed neoliberal straightjacket Labour and National are locked into.
The fringes are where this election will be won.
Northland Epsom deal for Shane?:
Nothing says National are considering an Epsom deal in Northland to ensure NZ First win an electorate and bring in coat tail MPs quite like dear old Shane Jones attacking the meth bros in a violent crime before all the facts are known. Shane understands how powerful the tough on crime song and dance routine from a Māori can be. A deal where National has a cup of tea with Shane to ensure an Epsom arrangement happens would ward off an over excited ACT from demanding too much if National can hide behind Winston.
Māori Party brashly stalk South Auckland General Electorate Seats:
The confidence inside the Māori Party is phenomenally high and you can see that with a tactic to run someone as powerful as Louisa Wall in Manurewa and Dave Letele in Māngere. This election the Māori Party intend to target Labour South Auckland general electorate fortresses and they have a realistic chance of taking them!
Expect the Māori Party rot surprise on election night.
Ilam cuppa:
Raf Manji is a very likeable, very smart, uber cosmopolitan voice of reason and genuine commitment to see some real fundamental change. He is Cabinet Level entry ready and has remarkable intellectual muscle.
You want this guy at the top table.
TOPs pragmatism is going to be and is being, incredibly attractive to many voters who are burnt by National and Labour.
With Brownlee standing down, Raf has a real chance of taking Ilam and by doing so, bring in a coat tail of maybe as many as 3 or 4 MPs.
That would give TOP an enormous amount of political leverage.
So much so, it would be stupid for Chippy to rule out a cup of tea with Raf in Ilam in the lead up to the election to ensure his win and MPs to give Labour room to negotiate amongst the Māori Party and Greens.
If Chippy is serious about rebuilding and future proofing NZ from climate change while boosting public services, he is going too require a Broadchurch of Parties.
Labour might gain 51% with Greens and Māori Party, but that gives those Parties enormous leverage post election. If TOP were added to that 51%, not only does Labour manage to temper the zeal from the Left, he brings middle NZ via TOP with Labour.
Labour strategists need to step up and start using MMP strategically.
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National will NEVER give any other political party ANYTHING in Northland. Born to rule etc etc etc.
A NZ First handbrake on National might be a good idea.
Northland Epsom deal for Shane? The chances of that happening are as great as my mum being chosen as All Black halfback for the World Cup. She died years ago.
Desperation knows few boundaries.
Desperation often gets one first place.
Why not?
That is how democracy NZ style works.
Jackson, Mahuta and McAnulty even Tamihere have been telling us that democracy NZ must be indigenised/localised. Trotter also explained this in another opinion piece on TDB today.
Like a modern “good” journalist he relied on previous posts to explain the risks associated with this new style democracy to NZ society.
Levelling the playing field is a real thing. One needs to consider the risks associated with your strategy as there are consequences other than those that you may think will favour your side.
Johan I’m appalled we have people in politics on the left suggesting we abandon democracy.
McAnulty the latest advocate.
That feeling comes from a good place.
The surprising thing is that McAnulty’s feeling may very well also emanate from a good place.
However, IMO he is reflecting what the labour caucus wants him to argue. And I will argue that is not a good place to develop our collective social consciousness.
Democracy ended with a John Key, John Banks cup of tea, handshake.
Key abandoned democracy that day.
Ah, you can’t let a day go by without a bit of Martyn’s neo-liberalism rant.
I’m not sure what you’re smoking but it must be a goodie.
You might have your finger on the pulse but the patient is dead.
Come October labour 29%, greens barely 5%, National 40% and ACT 12%. NZ First is a dark horse but looks likely to hit the 5% but Shane will not win on Northland and Raf in Ilam is as likely as a lotto win without a ticket.
You been smoking the same stuff bro , National 40 ACT 12? National may get 35% at a stretch.
NZ First 3 % max.
Just hope Tracey Martin releases a tell all bio before the election and NZ First would likely only get 1%
Pigs will start flying b4 NZF wins Northland, unfortunately NZF has lost it’s way and does not know where it is going and where it’s voter base is located.
Turn the election into a gambling ring and get everybody to put in small bids, then you will get a rise in interest. People don’t want to look at it at present there are too many outcomes that have been forecast and avoided for years, perhaps now the sky will fall – keep away no-one wants to be a CTV sandwich. Perhaps the prize would be a dinner with your favourite PM, a sort of raffle ticket that can go under the rules and regs set up for the small people.
Have rounds of them and publicise the favourite each time. Then all can have another go.
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