Latest internal Talbot Poll is out and it keeps driving the points TDB has been making.
LABOUR: 37 (+4)
NATIONAL: 34 (-2)
ACT: 12 (+2)
GREENS: 8 (-3)
Māori Party: 3.2%
As TDB has been pointing out, deep electoral dynamics are coming into play.
Chippy has become incredibly popular because his delivery over ideology has won over many Kiwis and they trust him in a crisis. The difference between Chippy and Jacinda is Chippy will throw a punch.
National have peaked with Luxon, they will be lucky to hold in the low 30s. Luxon is just bland wallpaper and National’s swing between ankle bracelets on 10 year olds and extra early childcare is too extreme. National can’t win back ACT voters without spooking the middle voter. The numbers are already being run for Nicola Willis, but her role in helping the Muller coup has left a large chunk of the Caucus against her so while there is momentum to dump Luxon, the factions inside National won’t budge.
Once National voters realise Luxon won’t win it for National, they will throw their Party vote to ACT. Expect ACT to hit 15%+.
The woke alienating middle class activism of the Green supporters has driven away voters. This result is barely above their 2020 election despite climate change being the preeminent issue of our time. They should be ashamed and embarrassed at their pitiful lack of progress. Breach a woke micro aggression and they crucify you, ask them to challenge the neoliberal economic hegemony and they can’t work out if they are Arthur or Martha, and even if they did it would take a 3 month hui to decide pronouns.
The Māori Party positivity and staunch economic policies are winning over voters and the more the Right attack co-governance, the more Māori non-vote starts voting.
As TDB has been arguing all year, the 2023 election will be decided by who Kiwis fear most, the far right National/ACT Government or the very left Labour/Green/Māori Party Government?
We are seeing the demographic realities of more Millennial and Gen X voters than Boomer voters at play now.
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Nats bleed to ACT, Greens bleed to Labour, essentially no change to previous Talbot poll that usually overstates the left.
Essentially no change, Hipkins still on honeymoon.
Pretty sure the Curia poll which usually overstates the right, showed Labour rising also.
Or were you just being selective on this poll only?
One things for certain, Luxons honeymoon is well over.
No, all polls are showing only slight shifting, left bloc vs right bloc is within the margin of error.
Try not being a blind partisan parrot some time and you might notice.
Compared to your blind right wing ideology bias I’ll take being a parrot than you being cuckoo.
What is so difficult about just accepting reality like a grownup.. Luxon was always a nothing, and it was always just a matter of time before everyone knew it.. BTW, this is the third poll I’ve seen in the last two weeks that are all within a percentage point of each other.. They can’t all be wrong… Aderns biggest failure from a political point of view is that she lacked the means to show Luxy boy (Keys “pet” name for him) up for what he was from day one.. It was obvious to me even before he got the job he has bow, that if it wasn’t for the fact that Key is still running the show, he wouldn’t have gotten within a bracelets broadcast range of leader..
I flew back to Auckland in February 2020, with Air NZ, and all I can say is the cost cutting methods, and lack of honesty or clarity when dealing with them (& hours on the plane without so much as a drink of water, because I wasn’t told that I had to pay extra for everything I consumed during the flight.. Of course, the fact that I only had my Australian bankcard with me, I couldn’t buy anything.. Ended up pinching a plastic cup, and getting a drink from the sink in the toilet.. What a fantastic job Luxyboy did in turning what was the only airline I would recommend, into a third class cattle transport, unless you’ve got the dosh for business/first class that is.. If National have run of bullshit luck, and het elected, who do you think will really be making the decisions? Joe Biden, through his mouthpiece Key, that’s who.. And we can all look forward to being placed deliberately into the sandwich as the meat, and offered either China, or the USA, as a forward base for the next phase of The lunatic Biden, or the despot Xi Jinping, Depending on who gets here first in numbers… Trying to disseminate over trivialities only convinces more than just me, that we are a sitting duck if NZ is both foolish, bigoted, and stupid enough to put a party that belongs to 19th century colonialism…. Oh well, if kiwis show themselves to be as incurably stupid, self centered, and delusional regarding the utter lack of importance attached to NZ for the last three decades, then I suppose they must want a new “Daddy”, as uncle Charles isn’t really cool hey?
So you want people to take you seriously but at the same time tell us you cannot read the conditions of sale for an airline ticket .I find it hard to believe that you could not get water on your flight wothout payment but will take your word for it .How were they dishonest . Perhaps I am just lucky but I have never found Air NZ less than professional in their dealing with me .Like most I dislike their high prices but the planes are full so price has not effected their patronage.
Glad to know the party I am involved in fills you in on the dealings at head office and how much John Key drives the engine.
The more I hear from the Maori Party the more racist they appear and NZ will become more divided if they gain power in any way .
No wonder Labour and Hipkins are doing well as due to the cyclone they have daily exposure plus they have just increased superconducting benefits by a large amount .They’ve trying to sell this as something they as a party have done but really the amount is dictated by law .If they had not caused rampant inflation then the amount would have been less . As more light shines on this party the public will turn away from them Just in the last 2 days we have seen the racism from OT the appointing of a very junior Minister to Police the ill,advised appointment of an exlobbist to lead Hipkins team teachers striking the list goes on plus the fact fewer and fewer people want the Greens anywhere near power especially under their current leadership.
The
@Trevor: Inflation is happening all around the world (for reasons we’re all aware of) but Labour is the cause of ‘rampant’ inflation in NZ? Are you really saying that?
I don’t understand why people make such lame arguments on a site like this where people are better informed than the average punter. I don’t mind right wingers who want to have an honest debate but this is just a repetition of National Party talking points
Aaron I know some inflation was imported but inflation has also been caused by Labour’s poor control of the money market which caused homes to rise by ridiculous amounts giving people a glow of being wealthy and this allowed prices to climb along with wages . One reason for this was that they extended Orr s control of the countries finances to make him responsible for both high employment and low inflation. It has proved to be a false dream as now the breaks are on Orr has stated he needs to see 70 thousand more unemployed to drive down wages and inflation. Both public and business confidence is now low and it is going to be a bumpy ride for awhile with an election thrown in just to add to the drama.
Luxon is naive. He’s fallen down the Simon Bridges National party leadership style of blah blah blah Labour this, blah blah blah Labour that. Constant whining when he could have pushed alternative policy through. We see that here with many contributors to this site, the worst being Bob the first. There could be multiple reason for Luxon’s demise, poor advice, bland personality or simply National have no alternative policy. I’d suggest all three.
Greens too interested in identity politics to do basic things in the environment. And Labour are just as bad as National now, when it comes to environment and climate change.
Black, ‘stinking’ wastewater dumped near Waikato wetland – and it’s totally legal
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/131549034/black-stinking-wastewater-dumped-near-waikato-wetland–and-its-totally-legal
It’s slim picking of any stand out or even relevant party to the problems of 2023 and I’m not sure the most important things going forward in NZ is related to Posy Parker and apartheid of service/funding in NZ.
I think the recent floods and cyclones who kill all nationals equally and both rich and poor show what should be relevant to NZ.
“Chippy has become incredibly popular because his delivery over ideology has won over many Kiwis and they trust him in a crisis.”
What has he delivered exactly? He was in charge of education for five years and the sector is a debacle. I think he’s popular because he’s not Ardern. That tells us a lot!
He’s delivered plenty. Your laziness knows no bounds.
Luxons unpopularity is because he’s not Key. That tells us a lot!
OK so name something he’s delivered….
https://www.labour.org.nz/policy
There, not to hard for you, unless yo are simple Andrew.
“What has he delivered exactly?”
Lot’s actually. In his various capacities:
1. Lots of false claims. (Looting, tax take as a % of GDP, Charlotte bellis, the women who visited Northland).
2. Lots of wasted money on the Unitec merger.
3. Record levels of crime.
4. Plummeting educational standards.
That’s just off the top of my head.
Many boomer funerals assist positive change in the Parliamentary political scene (some boomers endure elder poverty and have been left battlers all their lives, so lets not totally stereotype). 2026 is when new gens influence will be most apparent. The political priority for 2023 is simple–Natzo/ACT must be kept from office by all means necessary to leave space for that generational change to occur organically.
If the filthy tories were to attain office in October they will swing a spiked toxic wrecking ball through the NZ working class and alienated which will be hard to recover from.
Vote Green or Te Pāti Māori.
The filthy Tories won’t be elected October, no chance. The pathetic righties yearn for the almighty dollar, SUV’s and slumdog low wage economy. Actually that is always an election winner for the rabid right.
Are you saying the working class families who have been hit with 7% inflation are still happy with the direction Labour are going which would continued unabated but just a bigger racist content if Greens and Maori Party get voted in and join forces .
You are usually more coherent Trev. I am saying just what I said–which translates to using the MMP system to deliver a Labour led Govt. with an active rather than passive strong from Green & Te Pāti Māori.
You may be surprised I was not broken hearted when Labour /Greens won the 2017 election
as I thought that the environment could be better looked after but after 3 years I was very disappointed on that front plus I was there when Marama Davidson seemed to blame old white men for the Chch massacre. Would they do any better this time as they seem less united less focused and no real sparkle plus I wonder how well they get on with the TPM than they did with NZ First as I have not seen any joint statement to date
Racism is the ACT party and if you think global inflation is of Labours making, I’ve got a Simon Bridges, bridges to sell you.
Excellent.
Blusterpher Luxon makes an announcement about an announcement. Still a foggy from covid? Lol
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/03/am-host-ryan-bridge-grills-christopher-luxon-on-national-s-education-policy.html
“Chippy has become incredibly popular because his delivery over ideology has won over many Kiwis and they trust him in a crisis. The difference between Chippy and Jacinda is Chippy will throw a punch.”
I think he just seems refreshingly normal
What I have always said. ACT 16 % NZ First 5.5% Nat and Labour fighting over the middle block.
When are the Nats going to wake up and realise that Luxon is an anchor around their neck . . just round up a bunch of farmers + urban NZ European and Asians and get them to pick whose face they like the most from a line-up of current Nat MP’s.
They don’t even need to speak necessarily (although that might allow a Simon Bridges 2.0 to slip through)?
The country learnt their lesson from the atrocities Key inflicted on us, they won’t make the same mistake with Luxon.
In fact Bert I don’t think the country learnt jack shit from o’l crocodile smile Key and would re-elect him in a heartbeat.
But, but, but, if you listen to Im right, aka Whale Oil, Key did no wrong.
Yup.
Luxon had better start firing some shots or Willis will do it for him. I think the Greens are toast, Labour will suck up all of their Oxygen. Maybe a cup of tea with Winston to head off the Maori party and you will have a center right government.
Aaron I know some inflation was imported but inflation has also been caused by Labour’s poor control of the money market which caused homes to rise by ridiculous amounts giving people a glow of being wealthy and this allowed prices to climb along with wages . One reason for this was that they extended Orr s control of the countries finances to make him responsible for both high employment and low inflation. It has proved to be a false dream as now the breaks are on Orr has stated he needs to see 70 thousand more unemployed to drive down wages and inflation. Both public and business confidence is now low and it is going to be a bumpy ride for awhile with an election thrown in just to add to the drama.
Do you think throwing people out of work (and into poverty) to keep inflation down is acceptable?
Certainly not with the massive increase in population millsy which was National party policy since 2010.
Now its way harder to control inflation.
I would rather have rampant inflation than no payrises, mass unemployment, and cuts to public services, like the above commentors want.
Under ACT/National, workers will not get payrises. Ever.
Luxon is just Key with less cheese.
And hair
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