The truth of the polls at the moment, is that despite enormous self inflicted injuries, National are not soaring ahead.
It’s like National and Labour are playing Rugby and Labour are all on crutches with one arm tied behind their back while National are only 2 points ahead at half time.
3 Waters, co-governance, free speech, all needless fuck ups while the real mahi isn’t getting done. The Labour wonks and geeks seem to think rearranging the bureaucratic structure of services is how we win continued electoral support, rather than focusing on the end user experience for those services!
When you go to the Emergency Department, you don’t care that the back room has been centralised, all you care is that you will be seen in a short amount of time and your care is safe and will heal you.
Labour have spent far too much energy doing Sim city rebuilds of bureaucratic reform and and not nearly enough on dealing with people’s material well being.
‘Well Being’ for Labour seems to be a Māori sign language advert produced in Wellington with a diverse cast of actors.
We have ended up cheerleading esoteric issues like land rights for gay whales.
People are struggling and things are getting worse, not better. Structural problems that won’t be solved by rearranging the bureaucratic deckchairs on the Titanic!
DESPITE Labour being shit at getting things done, National can’t crack 40.
There are three reasons for that.
The first is that while many are angry at Labour’s failure to be transformative, we are still grateful that Labour stepped up and saved us from a Covid pandemic that could have been far more damaging to us. Yes, many of the things we had to do in the spur of the moment have had costs, but so would tens of thousands dead so playing the hindsight game and claiming these current problems somehow eclipse the public health emergency response.
The first responsibility of the State in a Democracy – protect the people.
Jacinda did that, she has earned another term and if that means eating some dead rats, so fucking be it!
The second reason National haven’t cracked 40 is the naked reality that all they are coasting on is the animosity towards Jacinda that Covid has provoked. National have no plans what so fucking ever to get us out of the crisis we are in.
All they have are putting ankle bracelets on children, punitive welfare reform, mass immigration to pump up houses and ripping up everything Labour have achieved that will deal to the structural problems we face.
To wilfully destroy 6 years of Government with no real solutions to the problems that they were built to solve.
National have no vision, just ‘we hate Jacinda too’. That just isn’t good enough to justify winning power.
Our problems are too big for bullshit political theatre!
National have no solutions, only condemnations, that’s never going to get over 40%.
The third reason they can’t crack 40% is because of the intense polarisation of politics. ACT went from .7% in 2018 to 12% in 2022.
That level of political dislocation represents a radicalisation and polarisation of political debate in NZ. ACTs vision is hard right with a vastly reduced capacity of State.
And that is what this entire debate is really about.
What we saw during Covid was the desperate need for the State to have capacity to honestly deal with the problems we have.
The neoliberal experiment in NZ stripped the State down to its bare bones and the political Right have continued to strangle off revenue so people can’t expect the State to provide the basic services a liberal progressive democracy demands.
We need more capacity at our schools, our hospitals, our police force, our welfare infrastructure, our social housing even our armed forces!
We need MORE capacity, not less, and we need this extra capacity to be funded by a tax system that targets Banks, Corporates and speculators, which hilariously are always the biggest donors to the political right.
Capacity of the State to do the things we need it to do is the true political argument next year and the left keep fucking it up because they are too busy playing bureaucratic semantics rather than making the argument to tax the mega rich to fund urgently needed expansions of the State!
Why is the political debate in this country just so stunted and tiny?
The current debate is beneath the challenge in front of us.
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Some will always vote Labour or National so it is the swing voters the parties are after .If they stay at 39 National will win power and that will please many like me .Personally I rather see National and Act in power with a small majority than a landslide as we can see from the last 2 years how slack this can make the ruling party .
Surprised to see Claire Trevett picking him as politician of the year. He’s a dud and he is THE reason National can’t hit 40%. But next year they will as 2023 is a nightmare year for Labour because of…
A Reserve Bank driven recession
Cost of living
Fuel costs up because the government cannot help itself wanting more tax
Crime
Mortgage hemorrhages and first home owners losing everything
Crime
Housing
Health
A government who thinks it can continue to fool voters with appearance management policy.
Crime
Picking ACT above 10
National in the low 40’s
Greens between 5 and 10 if only because of Wellington
Labour mid to low 20’s and lots of their MP’s looking for jobs and the odd Commissioner.
Winston scraping back in, maybe. If he does it will be off the back of disaffected Labour voters.
Depending on things like worsening crime and mortgagee sales which may lift turnout I suspect it will be lower because National are so uninspiring and Labour aren’t worth the effort.
Fun times!
Fuck you are so deluded Xray, right wing batshit crazy in fact.
I can’t see National winning the 2023 general election
Your Sim City and Gay Whale comments are absolute gold Martyn! (It’s the humour that keeps me coming back)
As for National’s polling:
1. Luxon knows that polls aren’t worth winning, but elections are. National MPs are busy with policy details and are keeping their powder dry. They will announce policy in their election campaign, leaving Labour too little room to react.
2. While Labour is in self-destruction mode it is smart of Luxon to stand aside, appearing calm and presidential.
3. It takes time to turn a ship around as well as people’s perceptions. There’s no need for this dog to chase every passing car as long as the movement in the polls is going his way.
The Oppposition doesnt win an election, a Government loses it. And Labour are going great guns at that.
Well all I can say at the present moment, to the tune of ‘All I want for Christmas is my Two Front Teeth’, is please will Tooth Fairy Jacinda please come back and start visiting the little children with real toothy gifts under their pillows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-iFsxSNN2c
Luxon/Willis WTF are they, opinion poll policy chasers, reactionary dipshits. NZ is a fast developing country, needs visionary policy. Wait a minute ! that sounds a bit like Grant Robertson.
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