Although, Putin’s escalation last week was unsettling it was certainly predictable and the world needs to be prepared for more threatening activity. Putin is a gambler, constantly willing to take risks, confident that his luck will hold. Further, for many years his aggressive behaviour has been incentivised because the world community has ‘looked the other way’ allowing him to use military power to achieve political goals. It will take time for him to realise that the rules of the game have changed and that the world community is committed to stopping him. Until he understands the reality of his situation, we are likely to see continued aggression, threats and even a period of nuclear brinkmanship.
At this stage it seems that Putin is desperate, but still has options available. The mobilisation plan being his ‘least worst’ option, it is better than either accepting defeat or taking the risk of using tactical nuclear weapons. Accepting defeat is too politically risky and using tactical nuclear weapons could lead to very significant and unpredictable consequences; NATO imposing a ‘no fly zone’, actively targeting Russian tactical nuclear weapons in theatre, destroying Russian logistics facilities or sinking the Black Sea Fleet are all options suggested by credible commentators. Any of these actions would demonstrate NATO resolve and cripple Russia’s war effort because this is not an equal struggle, if unleashed NATO’s military power is vastly superior to Russia. So Putin is treading a careful line, using nuclear threats to create uncertainty abroad and shore up support at home. However, he is also likely to understand that if he pushes NATO too far; and the ‘gloves come off’ Russia will be easily defeated.
Analysis suggests that mobilisation’s impact will be limited. Commentators are almost unanimous about both Russia’s lack of military training resources and terrible logistics system that make the call up hard to administer. Even the Russian military blogger community is skeptical about whether Russia can mobilise effectively. And, these concerns don’t take into account the recent flight of men from Russia and the protests against mobilisation that suggest at least some people are not keen to be drafted.
Unfortunately for Putin, he is an autocrat surrounded by ‘Yes men’ who tell him what he wants to hear rather than what he needs too, so he is unlikely to be getting quality advice. In my opinion, at this stage he is looking for non-nuclear options to escalate and stabilise the situation until his gas embargo strategy can take effect. If you are not a military professional and are not being provided with quality advice, it is unlikely that you would understand the intricacies of mobilising hundreds of thousands of soldiers so mobilisation could seem like a good option; especially when the alternative is either defeat or using nuclear weapons. It is likely that Putin’s plan is:
- Speed up the annexation of the areas of Ukraine that are ‘not negotiable’ objectives of the operation. It is an obvious sham but provides justification within Russia for future escalations.
- Call for a partial mobilisation. This will pacify the hawks, military bloggers and ultra-nationalist conservatives that are currently lamenting Russia’s failure to subdue Ukraine. Further, calling it a ‘partial mobilisation’ may limit the political damage within the wider population that were either ambivalent or opposed to the war.
- Secretly mobilise far more soldiers and flood Ukraine with them, cannon fodder to slow the Ukrainian offensives down and stabilise the situation until winter comes and European voters feel the sting of the gas embargo.
- Throw nuclear threats around to deter NATO support for Ukraine and more importantly so that the hawks, military bloggers and ultra-nationalist conservatives that support a strong Russia are reassured and remain loyal.
- Over time, rebuild the military power required to continue military operations but start to open channels for negotiation with NATO. Use the annexations as a claim to legitimise retention of a land corridor to Ukraine when negotiation starts.
Looking at this plan we can predict that in the next few days we will see completion of the annexation referendums that started last week. The outcome of the referendums is not in doubt, they will show overwhelming support for annexation by Russia and Putin will recognise Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts (regions) as a part of Russia. Completion of the referendums and annexation will not materially influence the battle in Ukraine. It is not going to stop the Ukrainians or limit external support for the war. However, it is highly likely that we will see an increase in Putin’s threatening rhetoric, including nuclear threats after annexation and the world needs to be prepared for this activity. It is vital that policy makers are not shocked or panicked but instead review his statements in a cool, calm manner.
Even after the annexation it seems unlikely that Russia’s nuclear threats will culminate in the use of nuclear weapons in the near future. The reasons why can be summarised as follows:
- If Putin was going to use tactical nuclear weapons their shock value and impact would have been most effective early in the war, perhaps before the withdrawal from Kharkov. Used at this time, by surprise their use would have been a severe test of NATO’s resolve and the response could have been very different, maybe a withdrawal of NATO support or pressuring Ukraine to negotiate. If he uses them now, NATO is prepared and united in its approach and there will be a strong response.
- This week, the United States discussed its use of ‘back channel’ warnings about nuclear escalation with Russia. Information that confirms two key points; first that the United States is taking the language seriously and is making sure Putin understands the risk of escalation. And, secondly that there are still back channels open for these discussions. Confidential ‘discussions without prejudice’ are vital for managing international crisis’s it is likely that these channels are also being used to discuss possible start points for negotiation. The key point is that there is communication which minimises the risk of miscommunication.
- Using nuclear weapons is a very dangerous and unpredictable escalation. If Putin, uses nuclear weapons he is taking a big risk both at home politically and militarily. A risk with impact that are hard for him to estimate.
- Ukraine has already made a number of attacks on Russian territory, including Belgorod and locations in Crimea, an area annexed in 2014. None of these attacks has resulted in significant escalations in the war or nuclear threats, indicating that there is a higher threshold for Russian use of nuclear weapons.
- At this stage Russia has a plan and options other than defeat. Including options for escalating conventional attacks on towns and civil infra-structure. Using nuclear weapons throws those options away, significantly increasing the risk to Russia.
However, we cannot completely rule out Russia using nuclear weapons particularly as the war progresses. In the short-term, the risk is also lower because the war is entering a new more static period, a phase in which the Russians have some breathing space and the opportunity to let their mobilisation strategy ‘play out’.
Recent reports indicate a tactical pause as the Ukrainians in the north-east hit geographic features like the Oskil River that slow their advance. Ukrainian forces in this area are also likely to be starting to feel the effects of their rapid advance. It seems that the Ukrainian plan is to prop on a line north / south, parallel with the Oskil River, while they invest Lyman. This town is a key Russian supply base and lynchpin for operations near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. If the Ukrainians take the town Russia’s aim of capturing all of Donetsk will be severely impacted. So, the Ukrainians in the north-east are concentrating their forces on Lyman. When they take the city, they have two options; advance north into Luhansk using the Oskil River to protect their flank or turn south and recapture Lysyschansk and Severodontesk.
In the south, an information ‘black out’ imposed by the Ukrainian military in Kherson means there is not a huge amount of information available about the situation. However, it is likely that the operation to isolate the defenders of Kherson on the west side of the Dnipro River, contain them and force them to surrender is progressing as planned. The operation was always going to take time and the reports that are slipping out from this area do not indicate any significant changes in the situation.
The general slowing down of Ukrainian advances will mean that the Russians have more time to move forces around and try to rebalance. It is also unlikely that there will be any huge Ukrainian thrusts into Russian controlled areas, which in turn means that the chance of Russia being ‘spooked’ by sudden Ukrainian advances into using nuclear weapons is lower. Although there will be a period of post-annexation nuclear rhetoric the real test of Putin’s nuclear threats will be later as the campaign develops.
The time of highest risk will be when either Lyman in the north or Kherson in the south falls, either of which will be a significant defeat and will provide the anchor-point for a larger Ukrainian offensive into the annexed areas. Another, risk is if Ukraine launches a new offensive pushing south on the east side of the Dnipro River towards the coast and potentially splitting the ‘Crimean land bridge’. When Russian defences fail again; and Ukrainian forces surge into newly annexed areas Putin’s rhetoric will be tested and hopefully, he is bluffing.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
Hahahahahahah, ‘Putin is desperate’.
Ridiculous. As you admit, the referendums in the liberated territories will show overwhelming support for liberation from the Zelensky regime. And now, the deployment of reservists to other Russian borders will allow the regular Russian military to join the liberation fight alongside the LPR and DPR militias and Wagner who have taken the bulk of the fight until now. Just keeps getting worse for NATO shills.
Hello Stalinist.
Awww, did I hurt your fee fees, nazi? Still mad that Putin stopped foreigners looting Russia?
Glory to Israel!
Glory to Israel!
“You admit the referendums…..” Of course the results are completely legitimate….not
Lol, actually, back in the real world, we human beings have ‘international observers’ observing our elections. Elections can be valid without american-lovers like you around, you know.
Don’t be ridiculous! These ‘ballots’ are held at gunpoint. Nothing free or fair about them.
Who said anything about the US? That’s half your problem, you are so hung up on hating the US that you ignore Russian bs. It’s quite possible to point out that turning up door to door with soldiers to get voters for referendums is coercive, without that being an endorsement of the Americans.
To be honest Mohammed the more comments of yours that I read the more you comedic you seem to become . . at times I wonder if you are taking the piss and at others I wonder if you are just straight out mental.
Hey Mohammed, don’t forget the Chechnians
“Akhmad sila! Allahu Akbar!”
Chechens
Ben Morgan should be on the next plane to Moscow–they clearly need a higher standard of advice over there!
The only offensive that stands a chance of success is the US economic offensive on the EU. That is going very well according to Der Speigel, The first German companies have begun throwing in the towel and consumption is collapsing in response to the fallout from exploding energy prices. The economy is sliding almost uncontrolled into a crisis that could permanently weaken the country.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/energy-crisis-fallout-how-bad-will-the-german-recession-be-a-9e1f479e-5fef-4e62-b5ca-2f9e87b9bbca
As for continued Ukrainian offensives, it would appear that the “soft don’t touch the infrastructure” approach by Russia has ended. If Germany is cold and economically crippled what show Ukraine?
I don’t see the conspiracy Nick. Not at all.
Why do we need a “conspiracy”? Its out in the open and a natural consequence of the sanctions. Europe politically is too stupid to see the damage, so why wouldn’t private US energy interests take advantage? Why wouldn’t German capitalists think about moving their plants to the US where they can expect better energy security? The money will go and seek the safest refuge regardless of the politicians and state actors.
Cantabrian can’t resort to debate, uses childish name calling, grow up and be a man bro
Valid debate is lost on the Stalinists. I have put up a myriad of factual information which is always ignored by them because they would not know the truth if they fell over it!
And denby you are just resorting to name calling yourself! Get out of the sand pit!
Murdered yesterday by the Zelensky regime- a man born without full functioning in one arm and one leg, who before the coup against the last democratic Ukrainian government served as a deputy in the Ukrainian parliament. He was forced to flee to Russia after the Poroshenko coup regime threatened to kill him.
He returned to the Russian-liberated areas this year, but was murdered in an artillery strike on a civilian area far from the frontlines yesterday.
https://klymenko-time.com/en/novosti/bili-po-rosgvardii-a-popali-po-invalidu-v-hersone-ot-raketnogo-udara-pogib-eks-deputat-ukrainy/
As always Ben – thanks for the commentary.
In the medium/long term, both Putin and Russia are screwed, and one can only feel sorry for Russian citizens who are caught up in this.
Despite the short-term problem created by Putin, the world is actually awash with LNG and production is slowly being ramped up, at which point the Europeans will import gas from somewhere else and Russia loses one of its key revenue earners. German gas reservoirs are already higher than 90% full so they will get through the winter just fine: All thanks to the US oil and gas companies who have shipped across vast amounts of LNG in what could be described as a modern-day Berlin Airlift. The UK has revoked its fracking ban so in due course they will become a gas exported too.
For Russians, the future looks really bleak:
1. Loss of gas revenue because it has proven to be an unreliable vendor
2. Loss of arms sales because the Ukraine war has demonstrated that they’re second rate
3. Loss of maybe a million young men feeing conscription in a country that was already facing demographic collapse due to low fertility rates
4. Embargoes will cripple their entire economy
5. Putin’s worst fear of NATO on his border has been realized by his own stupid actions: Finland and Sweden have joined up a reaction to the war.
One hopes that wise heads in the West are looking at long term options to revitalize and democratize Russia once all this is over, because nobody wants it to become a vast failed state.
+100 Andrew!
Andrew, a little research might tell you an opposite picture.
1. Loss of gas revenue. No, not happening in a world where there is an under supply. Read this from Reuters https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-gas-producers-struggle-meet-demand-kemp-2022-09-16/ The Europeans can only get gas at the price and quantity required to make their industry competitive from Russia.
2. Loss of arms sales? Seems that everybody in the non US centric world wants Russian high tech weapons that the West just cant produce, in particular hypersonic missiles. By contrast western wonder weapons have proven anything but.
3. I’m certain that if a million Russian draft avoiders hit the streets in the West we will soon hear about it. I’m holding my breath in anticipation.
4.Embargoes are having little effect to he Russian economy, they are merely strengthening SCO and BRICS who are opting out of the US$ (that’s the real war). Note the ruble was supposed to collapse, it has gone from strength to stronger. Check the forex sites, also check the Russian trade balances with India and China since embargoes. its all on the web.
5. Finally correct, Sweden and Finland. You might have noticed the fall of the Swedish government, a change to the Italian government, and Hungary’s obstinacy. Europe is screaming out for gas, and only Russia can supply enough.
I think that the idea of Europe revitalizing Russian democracy and economy is going to take second place to rebuilding and reforming itself.
From your link:
“U.S. shale drillers are struggling to meet strong demand for gas from domestic generators as well as customers in Europe and Asia scrambling for replacement supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
That’s true enough in the short term, mainly because of Biden’s actions in the last two years, but the reserves are there in the ground ready to be tapped. It just takes a while to set up the infrastructure. Such as expending LNG terminal capacity:
https://www.rigzone.com/news/europe_rushing_to_install_new_lng_import_facilities-29-aug-2022-170138-article/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CAs%20a%20result%2C%20the%20country,and%20Lubmin%2C%20from%20May%202023.
True Andrew, time and price is Europe’s enemy. They will be broke before new supplies arrive at unaffordable prices.
You really have some interesting delusions Nick J. The US has hypersonic weapons that are far more sophisticated than Putin’s. And their aircraft are far more advanced than than Putin’s. Putin has no proper stealth fighter let alone a B2 bomber.
Sorry Andrew, but the West isn’t the only game (market) in town. Moreover, its the West who are suffering, will continue to suffer as they turn their backs on cheap Russian energy.
The world community. There is no such thing as the world community. Most of the world are not against Russia as evidenced by the fact that they maintain business/diplomatic relations with Russia. Only the West has a problem with Russia, and that’s almost entirely the USA at that, cajoling and co-opting the rest of the West to work against their own interests in order to prop up the failing empire that is the USA.
Excellent series of reports, much thanks for your work.
I have reservations about this comment, though:-
“ Used at this time, by surprise their use would have been a severe test of NATO’s resolve and the response could have been very different, maybe a withdrawal of NATO support or pressuring Ukraine to negotiate.”
I’d have been more than astonished if other powers had been cowed by early use of nuclear weapons by Russia. Such a response would have been catastrophic geopolitically in future in relation to other potentially rogue nuclear weapon countries. A firm response would have been seen to be essential for this reason alone.
Mobilised Russians call Ukraine hotline to ask how to surrender:
https://news.yahoo.com/mobilised-russians-call-hotline-ask-185500131.html
LOL
Another possible scenario is that Putin drops a nuclear bomb or tactical nuclear in an unpopulated or lowly populated area of Ukraine (e.g. a nature reserve) as an “I’m not bluffing” warning? How might NATO respond?
Putin drops a nuclear bomb or tactical nuclear in an unpopulated or lowly populated area of Ukraine….
….. How might NATO respond?
Rush in Beer
A better question is how might the Russian people respond.
I would say the Russian people would respond the same way that the Russian people have responded to the ‘partial mobilisation’ by ten to the power of ten
For god’s sake! Russia is not going to drop any kind of nuke on their neighbour. If it comes about that they are fighting for their survival as a nation they will deploy their nukes against the power or powers that threaten their existence, and that is not Ukraine.
D J S
How do you know? The answer is you don’t have a bloody clue!
Perhaps time will tell
NATO would target whoever dropped the bomb with conventional weapons. In all likelihood they would sink the Black Sea fleet and turn Ukraine into a no-fly zone targeting any SAMs with HARM missiles.
Have the Russian trolls never met an adjective, indefinite article or qualifier? Must they write in Comedy-Russian?
Indeed James!
This comments page is enough to make me think twice about the Security Services dramatic statement that the Russians are behind all the disinformation and unrest in this country.,,
I would advise everybody to read Mark Galeotti’s article on salon.com. Here is a real expert who knows what is going on in Russia.
Thanks Canty will give it a read.
Tautology Canterbrain. One is an expert or one is not. The word ‘real’ is unnecessary.
Maybe.
On the other hand real as opposed to a fake expert is necessary and there are a lot of fake experts on the site. Your definitions are too myopic Archon Blatter.
Seven months ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine. By all accounts, he expected victory to be rapid and relatively easy.
“By all accounts” – I don’t think he expected anything like that at all.
Great whodunnit for all the Mrs Marple fans. Who put two holes in Nordstream 2?
Candidates.
Russia to give plausible deniability to withholding gas to Germany.
Poland because they can’t clip the ticket on gas transit.
USA to ensure Germany doesn’t buy Russian gas, but gets their high price LPG.
EU to ensure their member states toe the anti Russian line.
Let’s see what unfolds, cold showers and revolution perhaps.
I guess that gas will be going East now. Oh dear, too bad, what a shame…
Interesting comment. The Chinese and Arab buyers of US bonds have not turned up to the latest sale, the US can’t sell Treasuries. Europe can’t either, they are broke.
Why? The rest of the world watched the US confiscate Afghan, Venezuelan, Russia offshore reserves and gold. Trust was broken and it isn’t coming back.
Russia seems to be the culprit.
Yeah, cause this is the best way to weaponise energy , destroy the actual infrastructure that ensures you have leverage during a cold winter.
Duh!!
You’ve proved beyond doubt your stupidity.
No you proving your stupidity. Take a look at what the Nordic countries are saying. Don’t you read the news Francesca da Rimini? If you don’t know who that is read Dante’s Inferno!
It is becoming more certain that Russia is the saboteur which proves your own crass stupidity Francesca dá Rimini who is burning in hell as we speak.
STOP PRESS:
After crossing the Oskil, the Ukrainians kept right on pushing. Today, they hold at least five bridgeheads on the east side of the river.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/25/lyman-a-supply-hub-in-eastern-ukraine-is-the-last-place-a-russian-soldier-wants-to-be-right-now/?sh=895d95a17136&utm_source=ForbesMainFacebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainFB&fbclid=IwAR2PL7rCs3fvYxUYDqz72s3X8vgh7qQFjCymmCL0TgRPcdprwvoz31Hpzhg
Thank you Ben Morgan. I think you provide the best analysis of anything I’ve seen lately on the state of the war in Ukraine. So thank you Ben, and thank you The Daily Blog for hosting his commentary.
tl;dr – putins war lust is fading on a jaded population. everyone just wants to drink vodka and go out with friends on a Saturday. don’t they?
I have since the start of the invasion voiced by support for Ukraine however I again I find myself pitying many of the Russian soldiers forced into a war not of their choosing and particularly now when we have a new wave of conscripts arriving on the front lines with very little training or support – I just hope that those that wish to surrender can do safely and that they will be humanely looked after.
Agreed JB.
Agreed JB.
Having a opinion differing from the usual Bandaristas apparently makes you a Putin supporter or a Stalinist. Again clear evidence of lack of critical thought or objectivity.
And your ‘critical thought and objectivity’ was gleaned from BitChute I see.
So this Bitchute site is responsible for the brainwashing of all these gullible Putinists. An alt-Right site. Would our pro-Putinists go to jail for their beliefs? Or is it all hot air and they would recant from their savage rhetoric?
QED James!
I think Cantabrian is a KGB plant. We better watch we don’t get arrested for dissent.
KGB doesn’t exist any more. Get it right! Treason would be the charge if you support Putin.
I think a KGB plant (though an anachronism) would or wold have exhibited a significantly higher intellect than the comments offered by the subject of your observation Nikorima.
You are an idiot David Stone. Get back to under your stone!
I apologise for the above comment Cantab; It was on an impulse that I should have resisted.
D J S
A major reason for Putin attacking the Donbas appears to be the massive amount of rare earth materials present in the region. This also explains why the Wagner Group is involved in Central African Republic and DRC. Check out Misha Glennie on BBC Radio 4.
Another site which is better than Generall SVR is Meduza.io. Which also is in Russian.
If you’d kept your PhD wits about you Cantab you would have noted its not just rare earth’s. It’s 75% of the podsol the grain grows on, ITS 75% of the industry, its the entire gas reserves, its the transit for Caspian pipelines, its the coal and most of the nuclear power stations.
Without this Ukraine is just an impoverished ethnic state owing the West megabucks, exporting only neo Nazi gangsters to Europe.
If you want parallels in states created as a result of the 1919 Versailles agreement look no further than how Yugoslavia has fractured, ditto Czechoslovakia. Perhaps Lenin adding the ethnically Russian Novorussia and Donbass to Ukraine has just been put to bed in the same manner, Kruschevs gift of the Crimea has long since. I now expect the Poles to recover Lvov and Hungary part of Galicia that Stalin commandered. Might as well put it all right in one go.
You grossly exaggerate Nick J. It you took the trouble to access Misha Glenny’s podcast on BBC Radio 4, you would hear what I mean. Dr Samuel Ramani, Oxford University is writing a book on rare earth resources in Ukraine. The Donbas has 117 out of 120 essential minerals.
I don’t think your revised boundaries have any credibility whatsoever. Poland has no designs on Western Ukraine ditto Hungary.Putin will be defeated.
Cantabrian – regarding your comments above regarding the Nordstream sabotage, how do you like this example of Biden opening his mouth too far back in February?
“ABC News @ABC – 9:59pm · 7 Feb 2022
Pres. Biden: “If Russia invades…then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”
Reporter: “But how will you do that, exactly, since…the project is in Germany’s control?”
Biden: “I promise you, we will be able to do that.”
abcn.ws/3B5SScx
End of quote. Personally, I cannot remember Putin threatening specifically any action like this…
And please do not childishly call me a Stalinist. One of the first decent books I read was Norman Conquest’s ‘The Great Terror’ back in the late 1970s. I am not a Stalinist.
But I also am cynical about all the USA’s misdeeds being ‘in the past’ as you have previously claimed.
Correction – Norman Conquest should read Robert Conquest. Different things..
Well you have your theories and I have mine. I am going on German and Scandinavian reactions to the sabotage not dubiously concocted conspiracy theories by alt-right or whoever. I regard Fox News as alt-right.
Ok I won’t call you a Stalinist. I personally don’t like American culture, I am very much a Russophile. But like it or not we have to stand up to tyranny and we are forced to ally ourselves with the US. In Russia and China there are no freedoms and people can’t express themselves freely. The whole irony about QAnon and the alt-right movement is that they are using their freedom of expression to spread fascism. Under fascism there is no free expression. Be careful what you wish for alt-right Putinistas/Putinverstehe.
Ben’s analysis continues to be close to the mark. BTW Lyman has now fallen and occupied Ukrainian territory continues to be retaken. Despite the heavy news censorship in Russia the domestic audience are gradually getting to see that “Putin wears no clothes”. The Russian army continues to perform poorly and people are voting with their feet. Whether Putin will use a tactical nuclear weapon in an attempt to stem ejection from the occupied territories remains to be seen and is a worry. Sounder Russian minds surely see that NATO-USA technology would make first strike use of nukes by Russia self defeating.
The worry is the Putinists on TDB would applaud if Putin dropped a nuke. Their minds are so far gone that they would have cheered on Hitler. The Ukrainians are not the Nazis, the Putinists are.
Comments are closed.