New Taxpayer’s Union Curia Poll is out and it is similar to the internal UMR Poll we discussed on The Working Group.
UMR internal:
National 38%
Labour 35%
Green 8%
ACT 9%
Māori 3%
It’s a close run thing but it will be Labour/Greens/Maori Party as the Government, in the latest TUC Poll, National and ACT muscle into the lead.
National 37%
Labour 33%
ACT 12%
Greens 10%
Maori Party 1.5%
The real slide has been Labour and the Maori Party in this poll, which feels clumsy. The Māori Party are torching the Roy Morgan Poll at 5% and the Roy Morgan Poll got the 2020 election closer than any other Poll.
What is of concern is that National AND ACT are building when ACT are doing such a better job than Luxon at getting their message across.
The most interesting development is that Chloe has 3.2% support as preferred Prime Minister compared to 1.2% by Marama and 1% by James, that means Chloe is twice as popular as Marama and James COMBINED!
We have just left a harsh winter and Labour received the most negative media coverage it ever has, with the lifting of Covid restrictions and Summer, National has to do more than harvest people’s grumpiness and frustrations if they want to remain ahead.
National’s economic and social policy is bullshit.
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I can’t understand why kiwis hold so much animosity towards Jacinda after everything she’s done for them.
Probably something to do with a failed health system, crime spiralling out of control, cost of living issues, falling house prices, a bloated bureaucracy and otherwise plain incompetence.
Otherwise most people have woken up that Jacinda didn’t save us but did take away 3 years in meaningless controls and restrictions.
In general Elections are lost not won.
Ah vintage Frank. Says the health system has failed and then says we had three years of meaningless restrictions (based on what I am not so sure). So are you suggesting we should have just let all COVID variants run amok in a country with a failed health system? Good on ya.
Thanks wheely – I gave myself 7 out of ten. Solid but not spectacular.
So much for the bottom out of Labour @ 35%……
Sammy doesn’t actually live in NZ.
Frank pretty much nailed it. This election is National/ACTs to lose at this point. Wouldn’t surprise me if they find a way to bungle it though.
Yes Sam, a little gratitude would be expected. Look at all Jacinda and Co have achieved – the crime, homelessness, democracy “re-imagined”, education and health care failing, race based bullshit and soaring living costs; ungrateful peasants!
Your alive, sadly.
That doesn’t make sense bert, it’s “you’re”.
“That doesn’t make sense Bert”
Well that makes two of us.
@Sam Credit where it is due, Ardern and Labour are fantastic in a crisis and at public relations but piss poor at running a country. As mentioned by others, numerous social and economic factors and institutional transparency have all declined sharply under this government and you cannot blame all of it on COVID, look at what Mike King achieved. Voted for her twice, will likely sit the next one out.
Sam. Why? One major reason is this government’s unfathomable decision to abolish the well performing and much needed Commissioner for Children and replace them with a faceless committee of back room boys. That alone will stop me from voting for them.
Good one Sam! , I laughed and laughed and laughed, fuck it was funny.
“National’s economic and social policy is bullshit” x 1000 – as is sadly their leader. But the same is true of the party calling itself Labour.
Agree with your last sentence Fantail.
I have no idea why people hate Jacinda so much. She is the best of un inspiring bunch.
However Labeen’s cheerleading of poverty and crime and low wages is becoming a big NZ problem and spending loads of cash on this, instead of some prevention by not allowing so many people in poverty to come to NZ to ek out a living, and the amount of criminal behaviour that has become the norm.
If Labeen admitted there was some sort of problem and had more sympathy for the victims not the offenders, but you get the impression that Labeen are brushing crime off or pretending it doesn’t exist https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/body-in-burnt-out-car-for-two-days-police-told-passerby-it-was-a-sheep/AICHYIXYOJDGCOQYHEQVYPK4TQ/, as something that is either not happening or if they pay xyz private third parties even more money, somehow it will stop.
Why is NZ attracting very high needs, violent and depressed individuals? Other countries like Finland don’t have these headlines daily/weekly.
Val Heaney murder: Man who battered landlord with hockey stick jailed for life, previous violence revealed
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/val-heaney-murder-man-who-battered-landlord-with-hockey-stick-jailed-for-life-previous-violence-revealed/Y5BLY4CYHVOAVKHIQN24L7FGT4/
This Murderer only got 10 years in jail who killed his wife last week.
Auckland murder: Husband killed wife as ‘punishment’ for not being able to conceive
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/crime/papatoetoe-murder-family-say-husband-killed-wife-as-punishment-for-not-being-able-to-have-children/
NZ didn’t notice the kids disappear for years, but now the bodies are discovered within a short period are extraditing her back to NZ from Korea (not sure but sounds like they didn’t even notice she had left).
Bodies in suitcases: Woman arrested in South Korea was found ‘hiding in apartment’ in Ulsan, faces NZ extradition
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/bodies-in-suitcases-woman-arrested-in-south-korea-was-found-hiding-in-apartment-in-ulsan-faces-nz-extradition/3325UX2TILF3AILZCBKTZ7GKYI/
Other countries with better human rights, don’t have high murder and poverty rates, take action against individuals that don’t follow their laws.
Finland deported unusually many foreigners last year, writes YLE
https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/17335-finland-deported-unusually-many-foreigners-last-year-writes-yle.html
NZ woke and media have somehow got into the scenario of being more interested in criminal’s rights than the victims and has more sympathy for the offender. Meanwhile human rights suffer, as police are photographing the innocent.
Maori party barely registering in this one.
I think there must be a lot of variation in the minor parties from such a small size it’s probably hard to know their true polling.
Real hope for a change of government on this poll, both main parties of the right up.
Also Luxon popularity well up and Jacinda down, “wrong direction” tops 50%.
People are waking up.
Pai mutunga!
If Luxon is increasing in popularity people are certainly not waking up.
You do realise that you wont get a payrise ever again under National, and that your sick leave, paid holidays, etc will all be chopped. You may not even get a smoko break anymore. Imagine, working a 12 hour day right through.
Imagine working for a living millsy.
I know I do.
So you do want wages and conditions reduced to where they are in India and China?
millsy, that’s exactly what keepcalm and whatthefuckever wants. A return to the bad ole days. Are people waking up to Labour, no, they’re listening to the shrill of N.Z s right wing paid and bought for media and its propaganda.
But don’t worry, a lot of votes sway on debates, so plenty of votes coming back Labours way.
Don’t worry the slaves and cash workers will do it. They are already advertising 10 hour days for minimum wages starting at 6am in the meat industry in Auckland.
Neokindness is so wonderful you can make the slaves pay for their own trip now to the people traffickers @ 30k before finding out it was all a lie, and then make the other workers in NZ pay for that error too by paying all the top ups needed to live here.
12 hour shifts are a killer. I work 12 hour shifts (utilities dispatch), and it kills me, even if I am working from home. Fortunately the company I work for has taken on a new worker, and these are being cut back to more civilised hours.
+1 millsy
Interesting story millsy.
But I remember another thread you posted recently on , complaining that bosses and employees had never had it so good and we shouldn’t have sympathy for them only beneficiaries.
I think you are lying and full of shit.
Brenda and Labour are now in the low 30s.
What is the kill switch number for Poor Man’s Gordon Brown and will he install himself or plump for Peewee Wood?
The Maori party got 5% in one Roy Morgan poll and the left took it as if that meant something.
Roy Morgan is dog shit lol. People always act like them getting close to the 2020 actual result means something when it’s the outlier, they are routinely so wildly off it’s like they throw shit at the wall, they were gonna get one right eventually, a broken clock is right twice a day.
Maori party is the biggest wild card because they could cause an overhang in seats and it’s really hard to poll. I doubt they’ll get above 3% though.
Those numbers should terrify the left.
National got 60 seats twice at 47%. A nat act govt could make Thatcher squirmish.
I do think act in government will be as useless as every other political party in a coalition and get fed crumbs.
Labour should have been at panic mode when they hit mid 30s but it’s been months and months and they’ve just continued in management mode.
I don’t think labour wants a third term. Otherwise they’d be taking note of polling and research groups, instead they are refusing to change course on an extremely unpopular technocratic management agenda.
I think labour wants to get as many bureaucratic top down reforms in place and doesn’t give a f*** about being reelected.
Otherwise they’d have done something, anything in the last few months to excite people. Anything. Like I’m the first term they’d just make random declarations and policy announcements.
Labour WANTS to lose the next election so national can come in and do all the things labour’s moderates desperately want done but couldn’t do themselves.
Otherwise they’d have done a major govt reset months and months ago and be panicking like mofos as soon as they hit late 30s. Now we’re in early 30s territory and … Crickets. Hmmm
Not sure a right wing offshoot of a political party that runs polls is worth the toilet paper I wipe my arse on Corey, just saying.
Agree with your Maori party analysis, I can see them being the king maker and given Rimmers hatred of Maori then there definitely won’t be a right wing government, add in National betrayed Maori the last time in power.
No one doubts that David Farrar runs proper scientific polls. Certainly not Martyn.
As I see it, for the whole year the Left and right have been closely shadowing each other. Sometimes one side is in the lead, sometimes the other.
At this stage the balance feels like 2005, rather than 2008. If that is the case, then either side can win in 2023.
Hmm, poll funded by the Taxpayers Union (not a union) using David Farrar’s Curia polling organisation suggests right wing government could be formed and the Maori party is irrelevant – can’t say I’m surprised, maybe the timing of the poll taking advantage of the avalanche of hit jobs by the media helping their mates out.
100 % Correct.
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