Panic should be setting in for National

By
Martyn Bradbury
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159
2788

The last two polls should worry National.

Roy Morgan had tham at 35.5 while Taxpayer’s Union Curia Poll had them at 34%.

These are both down from the highs Luxon’s Honeymoon had projected the into of 40% and 39%.

It follows after Luxon’s Te Puke via Hawaii blunder and his constant u-turn blunders where he gets caught out on detail that underpins his justifications for change.

His desire to punish teenage beneficiaries misread the middle and his flakiness under the big ball always underwhelms.

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I think Jacinda will smash him during the campaign. Despite some of the worst media and press they’ve received since coming to power alongside extreme economic problems looming, Labour are still solid mid 30s, that’s extraordinary.

I think National’s ceiling is 35%, their challenge is to stop ACT being in double figures while trying to win the middle, something they are finding very difficult to achieve.

Worst case scenario for National is an ACT at 15%, that leaves National in the very low 30s.

I think David Seymour will be dazzling on the campaign trail despite his race war inducing conflict politics.

The rapid polarisation of NZ politics means there isn’t much middle left for National to hollow out with empty words and false promises, a truth Labour are finding our right now.

National and ACT won’t be able to get to 51% on their own, they will need NZ First getting over 5% or the TOP leader winning Ilam and bringing in a few MPs off the coat tailing.

Remember, Luxon was elected not because he was the best candidate, but because Judith Collins hate club pack voted against Simon Bridges.

That is becoming clearly apparent now.

Luxon will be removed as leader if National doesn’t win the next election.

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159 COMMENTS

  1. Should it?
    I’m not voting for the Nats but Labour is a tragedy.
    If the government doesn’t change on the appalling track record of the current shitshow then there will be many people leaving these shores and no, NZ or even Aotearoa will not be better off.

  2. One of Labour’s biggest problems is that they continue to underwhelm, if not atually disappoint, almost everywhere you look. I wish it were different, but it’s not. it is a long time (in politics ) until the election, plenty of time for more wheels to fall off and for some opposition party to be gifted a stick with which they can inflict damaging beatings which might be what causes more voters to abandon Labour. Also, still time for them to pull off something truly progressive though, eh? How likely is that, given the record of the last five years?

    • Just a question on delivery or lack of.
      Who promised to build a new hospital in Dunedin and didn’t and who promised to build it and is?

    • Agree Blazer.
      National tried with Luxon, and they have given him “a good go”, but Luxon’s gaffs are making Todd Muller look like a better choice of National leader.
      Willis would be excellent as National leader.
      Then it would be an election around a competent woman leader on a competent woman leader for PM in 2023.
      If it’s going to happen, it needs to be sooner than later. Nicola needs a chance to lift National’s fortunes in the polls again, after the huge dips because of Luxon’s ineptitude thinking that the plebs don’t know the difference between Te Puke or Hawaii.
      Plus, Luxon misread the need to have an ultra-right-winger like Brian Tamaki and his 5%ers as a coalition partner and took a week to re-neg on his possible lay-down-mazir coalition

    • Lol Willis comes across as vile, crusher 2.0. She’s been hiding lately though since Luxon became leader, but make no mistake, she is a vile snake and will have a collection of knives sharpened and at the ready. But you might like that sort…

      • Agreed sinic, to make matters worse she’s a screecher. If she had anything to say no one can hear it. The amount of ” withdraw and apologise” she has had to say under the softer speaker of the house speaks volumes.

  4. National we’re an absolute disaster for New Zealand during their 9 years when last in power and the country was never ad divided as it was back then. How anyone could vote for them and take our country back decades is beyond me. Of course there are a few loyalists who don’t care and it is utterly false to believe a right wing government help the poor and socially compromised. The evidence is overwhelming.

    • Humens are strange people . We both lived and worked through Nationals 9 years and Labours 5 . Where as you saw disaster I saw mainly success now I see disaster and you see success.
      I am sure that both of us have been let down by some of the the actions of our respective teams and for a time I found my team hard to support due to their leader but I am backing them again.
      Interesting times but we can share our distain for Hoskings and anti vaxxers

    • National were a disaster yet all key metrics such as inequality, debt, inflation, emissions, housing affordability, gang numbers, hospital waiting times, elective surgery numbers, emergency response times and the social housing waiting list are considerably worse under this governments reign.

      Jeez you’re a clever guy eh Bertie. Well done you!

  5. We are effectively 12 months out from the election A LOT can happen during this time. Te Reo won’t win an election however elections are very rarely won. The covid election was an outlier.

    Labour’s problem is a lack of delivery and the covid truth leaking out slowly.

    After the Northland debacle they better hope another truth bomb doesn’t hit regarding Delta getting into the country.

  6. There is plenty of time to go before the elections and these are unsettled times .Every day we we see the abject failure of Labour on so many fronts it is hard to believe they are so bad at running this great country. The homeless in Rotorua abused but Minister Woods dismiss their plight lawlessness as we have never seen so bad with gangs and young children lost to society.The possible lose of local power over water and buildings .
    The normal voting public feel so let down by Jacinda and crew that they doubt themselves to choose another party in the fear they will not do a better job. It will be interesting to see how the right fair in the local elections which will give people a heads up of where the country is heading

  7. I think 2023 will be the election of the rise of minor parties. ACT, TPM, and NZF will all do ok, and perhaps TOP. Don’t think a Christian/ antivaxx party will go far, the “optics” of how flakey they are, and coupled with a lack of economic policies, will have any sane voter not seriously considering them.

  8. I think a lot of you want some sort of Kamikaze David Lange government to reverse the last 30 years. Sorry it just doesn’t exist.

    • @ds
      Then National and ACT, who have had a close alliance since 1990, need to pull back from it.

      But they won’t because they are all about being mouthpieces for Rogernomics and have been joined at the hip, and neoliberal lip ever since 1990, till now. They’ll go on into the future. BJ King above gave a good history of the parasitic/symbiotic relationship between Banks, Brash Douglas and cups of tea between the two right wing scourge of NZ/AO.

  9. Funny the polls at least the last two don’t agree with all the Jacinda bashing on this site. All do we dis the polls or do we only dis them when National is not doing so good.

  10. Funny the polls at least the last two don’t agree with all the Jacinda bashing on this site. Or do we dis the polls or do we only dis them when National is not doing so good.

  11. Nearly 40 years ago ;if not more, those that wished to enact the most right wing economic policies recognised that the most likely political vehicles for getting the policies they wanted put in place were the traditional left wing political parties. Labour in the UK and here and in Aus , and the democrats in the US. Since the era of rogernomics these parties have consistently outrighted the traditional conservative parties without most of their faithful left/socialist / unionised labour supporters ever recognising or being prepared to admit how they have been had. They are still being taken for a ride. Muldoon’s national was ever so much more socialist, left than any subsequent labour administration has been or will ever be.
    D J S

  12. BJ King, is he though? A kiwi? He comes across as an uneducated pommy toff import bot to me. He seems to know sfa about kiwi history and swa about anything actually. Jmo

Comments are closed.