As TDB has been predicting, it’s a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government and latest Roy Morgan drives that home:
Labour 35.0%
National 35.5%
Greens 9.0%
ACT 10.5%
Maori 5.0%
NZ First 1.5%
TOP 1.0%
New Conservatives 0.5%
No one believed TDB when we argued the current political dynamics were causing a renaissance amongst Māori voters.
There has traditionally for many reasons been a large group of Māori who refuse to vote, but the visceral hatred towards Māori, the jaw dropping racist shit people will say openly now about Māori and the existential crisis a National/ACT Government represent towards Māori has suddenly awoken that Māori vote.
Part of this is the incredible work Māori health providers went to get the vaccination program running.
They reached out to the Māori community using their own unique connections and as they were vaccinating they were also enrolling people for the elections.
If ACT and National win power, they are going to destroy the Ministry of Māori Affairs and the disgraceful racism over 3 Waters and co-governance has spurred many Māori who traditionally didn’t vote to ensure they do vote.
The Māori Party have never reached 5% in any Poll before and the push back against the very racist diatribes against Māori has generated a unique problem for the Right, because the growing Māori vote (spurned on by a far younger demographic) is growing the voter pie rather than splitting it.
Labour have been overtly cautious and has refused to make transformative change because the Wellington Bureaucratic Elite refuse point blank to allow that, well with a Labour/Green/Māori Party, there are no internal checks to stop a genuinely populist Left wing agenda akin to Corbyn or Sanders from taking shape.
The Greens and the Māori Party should be meeting at the end of the year to decide a shared platform going into the 2023 election that they can force Labour to adopt.
This could be the greatest outcome for progressive politics since Savage.
Turns out there are political ramifications for being horrid and racist.
Good. Choke on that chocolate bar.
The danger now is that the extremists will see these results and start panicking that their racism isn’t enough to win the election and that political violence is next.
It will drive the polarisation and that in turn will provoke a stronger counter reaction.
As TDB has been pointing out for sometime, 2023 will be fought on who NZ frightened more by, an ACT/National Government or a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.
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Roy Morgan can be unreliable, however despite all the BS thrown at the government, they are in a pretty handle position at this stage of the election cycle.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9064-nz-national-voting-intention-august-2022-202209050524
Here is another trend everyone is ignoring, Wrong direction now at 53% and growing…
Why is it racist to say you don’t agree with cogovernance.?
It wouldn’t matter who the group was getting the extra weight to their vote, I still wouldn’t agree with it
Because the ‘magic bullet’ for Maori is to label anyone who disagrees with them as a racist . . works wonders and results in (ironically) a whole lot of racist policies etc favouring Maori.
Expect that I will now be labelled a racist but f**k it – it’s only a word after all . .
Do you realised you have just put a label on Maori yourself James+ Brown?
Where are “they “ getting “extra weight” to their vote Anker?
Agree but in this country, some Maori and the far left have equated – Commitment to democracy with Racism.
Unfortunately, this is the the sort of thought that comes from a distrusting mind. If someone has a chip on their shoulder (whether their life experience makes this likely or whether it is in in their nature) then they frame everything they see as an ‘ism’. We have all been in places where someone is useless at their job and eventually gets pressured into leaving or is sacked. Its not great but sometimes necessary. Often the employee that gets let go refuses to see that they were inadequate or contributed to the situation and the refrain is usually something like – You only sacked me because I am a woman, trans, indian, have a disability etc
The anti co governance theme has activated many Maori to think it is an anti Maori plot. It is not but the people calling everyone else racist sew division and they exacerbate the problem until it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Case in point, we have been in the top 5 to 20%(declining) of earners in NZ for decades, dropping now because of our choices and because we are approaching retirement. I have never ripped anyone off, not invested in housing, avoid tax or do things that we think are harmful to others. All our good quality second hand stuff is given away usually to young Maori. In local elections we vote for Maori and Pacifica candidates and those who promise low income housing or focus. We donate substantially to Foodbanks.
This year, as a family we are voting for any candidate who stands against 3 Waters, Super city and local government reform. Why? Because I believe in both equal suffrage and local representation. I will not be voting for low income or ethnic candidates as the stakes are too high. I have had to choose between championing the underdog and championing our democracy. The decision was made easier because I am now called a racist because I dont support what this Govt frames as ‘CO Governance’
I have re-evaluated the way we live and gift. Its pretty awful when you realise the people you have tried to care about (at expense to yourself and family) dont even respect you, perhaps even writing off your efforts as paternalistic white guilt.
Firstly I don’t think it makes you racist to say you don’t agree with co governance. How are Māori getting extra weight for their vote? Because there is Māori representation on a boards that sets the direction of entities that looks after water infrastructure?
The thing that makes me laugh about people like XXX is that they scream racist like co governance rights are being given (for some specific resources) to a race that have had it all their own way. It’s very convenient to forget why settlements and the like have come about.
Well what a lot of sad sac comments, what’s a matter its only one poll your masks have dropped he he he. This country was founded on racism and patriarchy. PIs and Asians standing for local councils are having their billboards defaced with their heads chopped of and their eyes gouged out and racist shit written all over them. These groups need to stick together to crush some of the white back lash arising in our country. One dominant group has had there way for far too long and it hasn’t been good for everyone. And if they ever let the 16 years of age group vote they will be another group who won’t stand for all the racist divisive rubbish happening in this country.
Agree 100% the younger age group is definitely a lot more assimilated and sure not putting up with the bullshit push-back over co governance. Most of them have friends of multiple race so the white pride crowd are in for a shock.
Stop talking kaka xstraight who has had the power and whose systems do we have in place in our country and who has mostly benefitted from this Eurocentric monopoly. Many standing for local councils are representative of the communities they live in and they deserve a fair chance not to have their billboards destroyed by small minded racist who have their heads down a rabbit hole. Pakeha NZers need to stand up and speak out against the rising tide of racism, discrimination and patriarchal bullshit in our country and say this is not acceptable not in this day and age.
Happy to say it defacing asian billboards is unacceptable. Dont have problem with some kinds of cogovernance but losing one man one vote is unacceptable. If you dont have one man one vote you may aswell have one king one vote.
Ineffective government is nothing to be desired.
Interesting result – before or after the good doctor meltdown?
Remember folks approximately 12 months out till election therefore not massively relevant.
Interestingly over 30% of women 18-49% are voting for either the Greens or Labour. THAT IS A LARGE NUMBER of this demographic moving away from establishment parties. Something to watch over the next few months to see if a trend.
If you look at the greens 2020 policy you will understand why.
https://www.greens.org.nz/policy_complete_party
Should have said Greens or Maori Party – 31%!
Joseph home owners can have many votes for the different councils if they own homes in different areas is that fair?
If you dont allow that in local body elections then you are in a situation of taxation without representation. Maori who own land and property under different councils get many votes same as any landowner. I’m not sure multiple votes in this situatiin is entirely fair but its not racial discrimination.
Unfortunately Covid, the next best approach which was introduced in the Uk on the grounds of fairness, was/is the poll tax. Everyone living in the area pays per head. Look how well that turned out. Lots of poor people got a lot poorer and there were riots.
But if you can come up with something that is both democratic and economically reasonable then I’m sure the world would listen.
Covid is pa. If property owners have to pay council rates in different locations, then it is fair that they are entitled to vote in the local council elections for those areas.
Yes I do but that solution is not abandoning one man one vote. Here are some one man one vote abandoment scenarios. Obviously I dont support any of them but there are people who do. One born&bred one vote. One migrant no vote. ~ One land owner one vote. One renter no vote. ~ One ratepayer one vote. One nonratepayer no vote. ~ One banker one vote. One citizen no vote. ~ One citizen one vote. One prisoner no vote. ~ One settler one vote. One native no vote. ~ One man one vote. One woman no vote. ~ One maori one vote. One tau iwi no vote.
One man one vote is the solution to the above problems. The problem of its abandonment is greater than finding some other cogovernance mechanism.
Yes, yes, yes Joseph.
You forgot one pension no vote
What has been progressive about the last 5 years .The country is going backwards in my opinion but there are obviously just as many who are happy with the status quo. I suspect many of those are not so much happy with Labour but do not want National back who they see as worse at tackling the problems of the Nation . I fail to see what MARY and Greens would add to the pot to make NZ a happier and less divided country
It is sinking in at last for some of the codger gen. at least, that their days in terms of political influence are coming to an end, and definitely by the 2026 General Election. A class showdown is nearing one way or another for some very obvious reasons.
In terms of Parliamentary politics, people have learned exactly where the NZ Labour Caucus stands–so a GLM Govt. is the only option for 2023 if the filthy natzos are to be sidelined. BUT… will Jacinda “Rule out” Te Pāti Māori…I certainly would not rule that out!
Can’t stand how Jacinda has enriched the rich but how can anyone vote for a turd who will cancel taxes on his 7 rental properties? Sick conflict of interest should be illegal. Labour for me whilst holding my nose.
Sadly I agree Dilema.
This poll appears a reflection of where NZ is at. ACT have tanked at 10.5 as have National 35.5. These two parties policies align but with no other parties of similar ilk, NZ is extremely fortunate that this coalition will never be able to form.
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