Why this European heatwave is so scary
For two weeks, computer models teased the possibility of Britain reaching 40C this week, a level unsurpassed since at least 1850 – and probably in more than 6000 years. Meteorologists gazed at these model forecasts in disbelief, sceptical that such predictions would come true.
Six days ago, the UK Met Office put the odds of hitting 40C at only 10%.
But the seemingly unlikely model forecasts proved correct. London Heathrow was among six locations in the United Kingdom to top 40C on Tuesday (Wednesday NZT), shattering Britain’s all-time temperature record.
This is the latest example of how human-caused climate changeis pushing temperatures to levels previously considered unfathomable – faster than many can imagine.
Look.
Sure.
Apocalyptic Heat Wave is melting Europe.
And the data tells us that in barely 3 centuries since the beginning of the Industrial Age, we have set off CO2 levels not seen in 2.6million years and yes because these processes normally take hundreds of thousands of years to build and once triggered the tipping points built into the Earth’s biosphere can cause extreme weather events in the space of decades, s-u-r-e, all of that BUT as long as the Methane in Siberia and on the Ocean floor don’t start dissolving and causes an enormous methane burp that sends temperatures jumping 10 degrees in the space of a decade, as long as that doesn’t happen the Greenland glaciers won’t melt, sending a cascade of fresh water into the Labrador Sea Oceanic pump that transfers heat from the tropics to Europe via the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and accidentally trigger an ice age in the Northern Hemisphere as Europe freezes over.
Oh wait, Siberia…
Climate crisis: Siberian heatwave led to new methane emissions, study says
…Ocean methane plumes…
Bubble plumes off Washington, Oregon suggest warmer ocean may be releasing frozen methane
…Greenland melting…
The amount of Greenland ice that melted last weekend could cover West Virginia in a foot of water
…and Oceanic Conveyer current failing?
Climate crisis: Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream collapse
…oh, all those things are actually in play an in motion and we aren’t going to stop them.
The IPCC report has always infamously been conservative and underplayed or simply ignored the impacts of naturally occurring feedback loops that once crossed represent tipping points from which no technological advance can mitigate.
What is most concerning about our response to the Covid epidemic (which is exacerbated by overpopulation and bio-habitat collapse), the mass flooding we just experienced over the weekend in NZ or even the American forest fires is that these extraordinary events that we are totally ill equipped to cope with are all occurring at a time of relative peace. How would these services cope with a plethora of events erupting at climate crisis speed on numerous fronts?
We can barely cope with the first wave of disruptions, how on earth will we cope when the enormity of events eclipse these small ones?
My contention is that in a future like that voters will throw their weight behind any party promising radical proposals.
That’s why I argue that Fortress Aotearoa is simply a matter of when not if.
The current political spectrum in New Zealand can not radically adapt fast enough to adopt the changes we must make if we are to survive the climate crisis. It will require a radical Political Movement that elects a Party to implement Fortress Aotearoa…
- Move away from intensive farming and look to become domestically self sustainable in terms of food.
- Immediately ban all water exports.
- Empower local communities to make local decisions and set up resilience programs.
- 5 year Parliamentary term so Governments can actually plan for change.
- Upper and Lower House (Upper House 50-50 split between Māori & Pakeha that can hold up legislation if unhappy about Treaty issues)
- Massive investment into R&D from Government with the understanding research is to benefit NZ first before sold offshore.
- Large scale increase in Navy, Army & Airforce.
- Mass limiting of tourism numbers with huge increased tourist taxes.
- Only citizens can vote.
- Sustainable immigration and an end to exploitative migrant workers.
- Resettlement Programms for all pacific island neighbours.
- Increase refugee in take to 10 000 per year
- Fully funded public services focused on real welfare of people.
- Mass Green housing rebuild.
- 100% renewable energy for entire country.
- Massive tree planting across previous farming land.
- Wholesale re-write of state services act to end commercial values.
- Investment into basic pharmaceutical production.
- Financial transaction tax
- Wealth tax
- Multinational tax
- Inheritance tax
- Capitalist monopolies in energy, transport and finance have to be brought into public ownership and control. They should be subject to democratic plans drawn up by the whole community. Workers should have much stronger decision making powers within them.
- All economic sectors to be made take steps needed to decarbonise the economy as much as is needed to reach zero net emissions by 2030.
- Free and frequent public transport on electric buses and/or trains in all main cities.
- Health care and education for life should be free and universally accessible.
- Welfare, pensions, child allowances, should be universal wherever possible.
- Public housing at fixed and affordable rents should be a right of all not just the desperately poor.
- All workers should have a right to a job and the workweek reduced with no loss of pay to make that possible.
- Local communes should be supported for control and delivery of as many functions of the centralised state as possible – including housing, education, health care.
- Local communes to support cooperative forms of production of food, solar and wind energy, electric transport, and media.
On a rapidly warming planet, NZ will increasingly be the life boat for Earth and the tyranny of our distance will become our blessing.
Pretending that we can ‘stop’ the climate crisis cascade is sophistry, we require radical reform and adaptation now.
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice going into this pandemic and 2020 election – please donate here.
If you can’t contribute but want to help, please always feel free to share our blogs on social media.
Bomber mate you know it none of that list is ever going happen!
Okay, the two horsemen of the media apocalypse, Covid (and any other bacteria/virus known to science lately) and climate change. We are kidding ourselves if we think we can control either. Remember, the WHOLE world must cooperate and when did last happen … ever? And even then with such a fantasy it’s extremely marginal anything would be achieved.
Number One, Covid.
A coup d’etat for the glass half empty brigade and virologists who before this all began were ignored even by their caged lab rats because they were so dull. But in any case endless stories of this being new Black Death and needing to wear masks in bed when living alone is getting beyond repetitive and irritating and it has been cancelled by the majority of the general public in the best of woke tradition but not for woke reasons. Few care and if you dont believe that, ask Jacinda why she ditched the stupid mask thing!
Number Two, Climate change.
Turn off oil, welcome back to the stone age. Where do our syringes come from to treat covid? Oil!. Does humanity really want to go there? Really? Who will make all the E bikes for Simon Wilson’s Grey Lynn cycylist paradise? Or their lycra? You really think E cars will surpass traditional cars, think greed, think Elon Musk, think billionaires and know that it will never happen. You think electricity for our morally superior E things is going to be generated from magic beans and Oompa loompa’s in a power plant and not some sort of fossil fuel topping up the grid? Or nuclear power? Think again.
Look at the positives because we are not supposed to do that. Just for a few days the UK wasn’t a cold wet miserable shithole!
Auckland climate is fantastic, better than I can ever remember!
Aucklands dams are almost full, 6% off in fact and 10% above average. No drought, no water restrictions, no news outlet reporting that!
Australians actually have something to whinge about, too much sun, too much rain, too many mice, too much…, it’s like listening to farmers in NZ. Send your 501’s here, get karma back, in spades!
No point getting depressed, because that is exactly what our media want. Mankind is adaptable, we always have been. Don’t click the Covid Climate stories. Click Megan Markell instead. Control what we can, stop looking at newsfeeds because all they really want us your money, and get on with life rather than moping about waiting for the sky to fall in!
typical conservative nonsense saying things can’t change and then referencing adaptability – lol – what a cuck.
I agree that we ought to move away from intensive farming and ought to have done so already. Look at the pollution in our rivers …
Maybe a little optimistic. There is increasing evidence that climatic shifts from ice-age to interglacial phases occurred much faster than previously thought. Add onto that human impacts and we could see catastrophic change measured in decades not thousands of years.
We currently reside in the “Aranui” interglacial period which has so far been around 14000 years. The shortest interglacial has been 20000 years in NZ so under normal circumstances we would be able to look forward to at least another 5000 of a climate suitable for human habitation. Most climate scientists, as you have indicated, agree that global warming will lead fairly quickly to another ice age due to the loss oceanic conveyor belt heat redistribution processes.
What will this likely mean for NZ? Over one third of the South Island will be glaciated and uninhabitable. Much of the rest will suffer from a periglacial climate unsuitable for growing anything apart from very limited coastal areas. Large central parts of the North Island will also not be suitable for any form of arable farming. It is wishful thinking to believe that NZ will be some sort of global life boat particularly since we will lose our hydropower generation and lack other energy sources to meet anything but the needs of a basic stone-age economy.
Climate change is happening and it wont be stopped because it is not all manmade but also has to do with space weather which we have no control over. The IPCC is finally beginning to see this as well but they are very slow to change and incredibly conservative over assigning values to their models to compensate. Also in fairness, it is complex science (hitherto not being seen as related to weather) that is only beginning to researched bit by bit over the last 5+ years.
I believe things will happen faster and sooner and that rather than spend $ on zero carbon we should be looking at ‘mitigation’ ie: It’s coming, we are not going to stop it so what do we need to do to survive it? Which to some extent is what Bomber and Racky are saying.
A recent study showed that certain types of space weather can have immediate effects on earth’s weather (usually at the Poles) whereas other patterns can have multi decadal effects) so combine this with Co2 effects and we must as individuals and as individual countries prepare ourselves. At least we are lucky enough to live in NZ where food and water are plentiful. I’m picking La Nina type patterns (maybe on steroids) from here on out, certainly more precipitation and storms.
Carry on Martyn – trying to reason with the human mind is like trying to climb up a rope but in your case you might think how to manage it. But King Canute had to actually take his nobles to the sea to illustrate his impotence in certain situations. The post is good reading I am going to spread it around where I can.
The Press today on the front page of mine was split between London’s Burning at around 40 degress Centigrade. And an announcement of a win in the Court of Appeal against an appeal about an Environment Canterbury decision that would allow 88.8 billions of water each year to be extracted from Canterbury and bottled.. This was against consents made to Cloud Ocean Water and Rapaki Natural Resources and ECan (a device of business interests, wealthy farmers, National Party, and other political parties to grab the nation’s water resource in Canterbury) has to pay some of AWA’s appeal costs. Aotearoa Water Action have been stalwarts and deserve donations as they have persevered for years, a real green battle, and will have had big costs and made sacrifices of all sorts to win against the rapacious predators feeding off this country.
Gone by 2050.
Pray for the Brits, they get scared when they get a summer
In the time I have been reading and contributing to blogs it seems that nothing has got through to politicians who feel energised to do something, make a start on stages over three years even. What is being done, of those that are being tackled, is insufficient to deal with the current problems and many do need quick fixes. We can’t go on with this masquerade.
(Got a song for this see below. I think in songs apparently when my mind machine starts cog-itating. It’s only a sense of humour with bits of fun that keep me going, as I don’t do drugs and limit alcohol.)
It appears to me that it is time for a coup in Labour. Do you remember they tried one in Muldoon’s time which didn’t gel, I remember Brian Tallboys but I think there were about three. In Labour now there may be a few at the leading edge that could map out a plan for the task but more than that work out what they think that NZ should aspire to, and have shrewd judgments about the barriers and problems that would arise. And ensure that the heavies don’t know and where to put pressure in a sensitive spot.
David Cunliffe came to mind in my thinking. Just the name for a start and then I realised there are a number of Davids in the Beehive area. Not all suitable though. David Shearer sees poor people as part of his gravy train and could manage WINZ in the manner to which it has become accustomed, perhaps. But people who think like the David in the song It Ain’t Necessarily So, could feel they want to step up and korero.
I like the Gershwins’ approach here. And they make a good point, you don’t have to be perfect to get into
political heaven.
Li’l David was small, but oh my!
Li’l David was small, but oh my!
He fought Big Goliath
Who lay down an’ dieth!
Li’l David was small, but oh my!…
To get into Hebben
Don’ snap for a sebben!
Live clean! Don’ have no fault!
Oh, I takes dat gospel
Whenever it’s pos’ble,
But wid a grain of salt.
Aretha belts it out – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1eSiso7VZs
Factoids – *’Assuming “sebben” means seven, rhymes with Heaven’… mudcat.org
*In Nazi-occupied Denmark, the Danish underground interrupted the 1943 Nazi victory radio announcements with a recording of the [Ain’t Necessarily So] song, Also it is seen to have a number of allusions to a Jewish blessing and prayer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It_Ain%27t_Necessarily_So
The words for masquerade say it all in the inimitable voice of Karen Carpenter RIP.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLW9h76QZ50
Are we really happy with this lonely game we play
Looking for the right words to say
Searching but not finding understanding anyway
We’re lost in this masquerade
Thoughts of leaving disappear each time I see your eyes
And no matter how hard I try
To understand the reason why we carry on this way
We’re lost in this masquerade
More humans equals more pollution yet the greens are happy for more humans… errr… ok?
Apocalypse Now
said the news
Everywhere around
everything to lose
Head for the hills
many now think
Our global business model
is starting to stink
Dismantle the human battery farms!
said Santa Klaus
We will keep the system
but remove the lowerlings
and for a billion that stay on
that will be grouse
Destroying the Earth is wrong. Now, I suspect, nay, believe “climate change” is both seen and used as a means to push other ideologies and global agendas. Might I add, pushed by those whom have concentrated power in the hands of a few.
Though humanity has studied the laboratories of nature, their is too much hubris from all corners for people to not hold healthy skepticism.
It many ways this article is calling for better governance. The extensive bullet-pointed-list which ranges from; “sounds good” to “let me think about that” in many ways is already government-policy/law – we might just need a higher quality of.. management? freedom?..
..a bad idea implemented poorly is probably a blessing in disguise though. Circling backing to ‘climate change’, what I am sure of is; the corruption in institutions and in peoples hearts is soon reflected in nature and the quality of life here on Earth.
Society would do well to prize virtues in people rather than collagen injections in the ass and beat ups with at-least-questionable climate cudgels.
Agree Zack Brando. But some will always want to to concentrate on collagen injections, so those who are really concerned need to think and do three times as much as the ordinary joe because there is such an important task on their shoulders that others won’t or can’t step up to.
People here have to discuss and form an opinion on the world that they will work to sustain, and keep to supporting idealistic but practical others who stay on task. I think here has to be idealism, but have to watch it doesn’t get OTT, and have a good heart not allowing maliciousness and sneering at others, but respect for all for the good that is in them which they try to keep to the fore, all at their different levels. But mean- minded people get pleasure in spoiling or destroying and have to be watched out for – if they are thoroughly psychopathic they will let the side down eventually.
Climate change deniers are on the same level as QAnon freaks.
And there are many on this site Richard.
ouch, it would be easy to agree to that, but, i’m gonna have to say that QAnon loons really have gone down a couple of rabbit warrens worth of holes more than your usual climate “sceptic”. they are both however just as equally damaging to the world.
lets get past the binary thinking of either third world living conditions if we do address climate change. there has to be a middle ground where we work out how to live with less energy use. all sorts of possibilities if we take power away from private profit making incentives.
and past the binary of totalatarianism vs local decisions.
we need both centralisation in some areas and local control in others. we need both. and regional control in between. with different roles. e.g. part of central government role would be to maintain good relationships between regions.
all sorts of possibilities for different “spheres of influence” at different levels.
all sorts of possibilities for adapting to a hostile environment.
ones that martin has indicated. and more we havent thought of yet.
following chile’s process for writing a new constitution would work. elected people onto a commission to draft policy taking into account public submissions….
this article has a common sense approach to scare mongering…..
https://sustainabile.substack.com/p/tilting-at-wind-turbines?r=6q9vp&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
cheers
Cheers to you cp – it’s refreshing to read some thoughtful and practical ideas. We need to have a sneer sometimes, a laugh sometimes, a complaint, but all the time be thinking about how the people can come up from under the weight of the money-mad and delirious-style, mad social climbers. Be thinking, discussing, learning, listening, debating and planning and then doing; how we should manage, could manage, and must try things from an alternative university of Practical Social Democracy, as our alma mater. (Perhaps make Terry Pratchett our dead hero? and join the Unseen University as an imaginative exercise for the more prosaic amongst us. Trying to proceed as individuals we will be pissing into the wind. Uugh!
I think that The Day of the Triffids by John Wyndham is good reading for now. How to cope with a situation that must be fled from but keep thinking and managing to stay on top of the situation, and trying to keep one’s humanity and do good where possible but with wisdom. How best to cope and have a goal and seek people who haven’t abandoned their desire to the follow the golden rule, the idea of sharing and respect for others and the world.
John W kept his belief in love and commitment in front of him in his writings mostly I think. And hope is there in the stories, but also certainty might grow that there is none, and risk or self-sacrifice may be needed as in the end of The Midwich Cuckoos.
https://davidbuckingham.net/growing-up-modern/an-awkward-age/the-midwich-cuckoos/
Comments are closed.