If the next 6 months are economically harsher, beyond a Tax cut agenda he can’t articulate, will Chris Luxon shine as brightly as Guyon Espiner’s weirdly flirty column in RNZ suggests?
I’m loving the rapture of Christopher Luxon, it’s crypto eyes full of orange fire stuff right now as he breathlessly tells everyone who will listen that he won’t cut benefits and won’t sell assets!
Here’s why Christopher’s promises are so empty.
He can hand on heart tell God that he meant every promise, but in order to be the Government he has to cut a deal with ACT and David Seymour is in this to win this.
People don’t appreciate nor understand how romper stomper ACTs position is comparative to National and people forget Seymour TURNED DOWN a Ministerial position to ensure the Euthanasia Bill got through.
Politicians NEVER turn down power.
He did.
Dave’s not for turning folks.
So Christopher can make as many promises as he likes to you, the one thing Guyon’s glistening review revealed is that Luxon is strategic enough as a boofhead to ensure management of talent while understanding the market. He knows he can safely promise the world and that all changes the second he needs ACT agreement.
He understands the process enough to know he can make these promises and they can all change in the blink of an eye.
He’s slick, and talented at ordering subordinates in a way that is corporate woke minus the class ideology.
The boil down is that the latest ROY MORGAN Poll points out what we’ve been saying for some time, an ACT-National Government would be very hard right no matter what Christopher is saying right now.
Add in the real possibility of Winston hitting the 5% threshold and the enormity of how far Right the country would need to lurch to appease David Seymour’s philosophical obligation to mutilate the State will spook voters towards Winston and draw back Labour Left from Greens.
A Parliament post 2023 with ACT, National, NZF, Labour, Greens and Māori Party will reflect the splintering of the political spectrum. Expect a lot of wasted sub 5% threshold vote this election as the extremism of the increasing fringes builds political resentment.
This doesn’t end well.
The centre Christopher is promising won’t exist by the end of next year when people are voting.
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.
If you can’t contribute but want to help, please always feel free to share our blogs on social media
Funny how Luxon is saying he wont drop benefits when he is also saying it is too early for policy we have to wait and see what the NZ public want. He can’t have it all his way he is going to have to make some major trade offs and these may consists of cuts to something. The loss of tax revenue if he cuts taxes has to be found somewhere. And for him to say Poto Williams is out of her depth the same could be said about him as he often backtracks.
Funny how Luxon is saying he wont drop benefits when he is also saying it is too early for policy we have to wait and see what the NZ public want. He can’t have it all his way he is going to have to make some major trade offs and these may consists of cuts to something. The loss of tax revenue if he cuts taxes has to be found somewhere. And for him to say Poto Williams is out of her depth the same could be said about him as he often backtracks.
Te Reo is a woke corporate so A LOT of his policies will be center left on the social side. Economically he appears firmly right again aligning with Woke corporate values. There appears none of the political common sense or ‘everyday man’ that John ‘rugby’ Key has therefore in 2023 the leaning curve will be steep. Will he adapt – only his god would know.
On the left there seems to be hope that Winston will ride in on his white horse. A couple of things that make that unlikely:
1). Post covid the government has moved hard left on social policy – indeed praying from the temple of woke on everything from hate speech, law and order and health. NZ First socially is more conservative than both National and Act.
2). Mallard and Jackson have personally insulted him on the dumb lives matter protest and He Puapua respectively. Ask National – Peters is the most vindictive parliamentarian since Muldoon. Te Reo and his woketard gang weren’t the same National party that went to war with him.
If Labour is relying on Peters then you know they are fucking toast.
How many more ‘trips’ will our Glorious Leader make before Grunter asks her to leave stage door left?
Sorry Frank but Jacinda is still the best thing Labour have going for them .Who is there to take over there is not another minister waiting in the wing. Kerry Alan is the only one that stand out but she is too grounded for many.
Allan will be flat out holding what is essentially a rural seat. Depending on high how she is on the list might still get in. Our “Glorious Leader” is more and more resembling Trump – loved by the base but despised by almost everyone else. Elections are won in the middle and the middle (especially those with penises) are turning away from “Be Kind” as they see the economic and social damage being inflicted on the country.
Next off the rank is Grunter however get feeling is he will be just as despised as our “Glorious Leader” shortly given the economic carnage about to rain down on the country. Following that it is a race being the Tainui Princess and ‘rivers of filth’ Wood – neither will appeal to the sheeple.
If Te Reo loses it from here he truly is a numpty of the highest order
Allan will hold her seat and
improve her vote, Mahuta and Woods are a shoe in.
Last election Wods won with a majority of 13,853, good luck turning that around as Parmjeet Parmer is a wet blanket.
Mahuta won with a majority of 9660.
I know you Frankie, it is wishful thinking on your behalf at best.
The economy issue is worldwide, it won’t disappear with a right wing government and in fact we’ve seen in the past they’ve made things worse.
I know many visitors to this always interesting blog will find the idea of a ACT + National government at the very least problematic if not outright terrifying but isn’t it great that at last there’s a party and a politician that actually have a plan and ideas about what NZ needs to do to be the best place to live on earth.
It’s been so long since we’ve really had a contest of ideas in NZ and like or loathe ACT, I think we will at least have a chance to examine what the others have to offer which at the moment is just more beige boring incrementalism as far as I can see.
Roll on the election!
Sorry ! …I must have missed something …can you please remind me again of National and Act’s transformative ideas ?
It could take a while Grant…?
Cut everything linked to Maori and Women (anathemas to NACT)
Cut anything linked to “alleged climate change” (anathemas to NACT)
Raise taxes for rich and allow wealth to “trickle down”.
Sell schools and hospitals to the private sector and have voucher system.
GST up to 20% and flat tax of 20%
Did I miss any other “transformative” NACT policies bert?
Methinks you can edit Winston First out of your scenario. Once name suppression is lifted (as it should be) I suspect the two defendants NZF electoral fraud case will be outed as close, close confidants of WRP. Follow the money … and in that respect one could ask were any of the ‘donations’ siphoned off by way of a ‘finders fee’ and, if so, how much and to whom and was the pymt declared to RD.
So many questions, so few answers.
The only hope Ardern has is to call an early election. Her polling is only going to get worse, so the longer she waits the poorer Labours election night outcome will be.
If she doesn’t do this within the next six months, Labours only other path to victory is for someone to roll her.
I appreciate that you are on a mission to discredit Luxon, but I think you are ignoring some basic aspects of how coalition politics works, whether it is Right or Left.
Both the minor parties in the likely coalitions have no realistic option but to go with their major partner. Act for National, Greens for Labour. They are not crossover parties. That immediately limits their negotiating power.
So neither National nor Labour will have to utterly cave into their minor partner, to become little more than the minor partner’s cypher. In fact the reverse is likely true. The minor partner will get less than their percentage may indicate, simply because they have no other place to go. Even the cross bench option is not that appealing. A minority government, whether Labour or National, will be able to get some support from the opposing major party. At least in things other than confidence and supply. However, the minor party has to support confidence and supply or else there will be an early election.
Either Labour or National, depending on which is in government, will implement the great bulk of their programme. It will be an imperative to do so if they want to get re-elected, since the great bulk of their programme will be aimed at the middle, not at the left or right fringe on their respective edges.
Obviously the minor party will have to get something worthwhile, but it won’t be at the core of the major parties political positioning. The major party can’t take that risk.
In terms of the major concerns of the minor parties, the Greens will get more on climate change and Act will get more on education. Obviously there will be more than that, but it seems to me that these will be the big two issues for the minor parties.
Ahh the right. I actually enjoyed your libertarian love in last week – rather the libertarians than the wishy washy conservatives – at least you know where you stand with libertarians. Conservatives are only concerned about one thing. I wager some form of eco nationalist movement is coming – one wet bulb event and all hell will break loose.
Comments are closed.