The enormity of the collapse in Labour vote and the power of ACT are now apparent with the latest Roy Morgan Poll.
NATIONAL – 40%
ACT – 10%
LABOUR – 31.5%
GREEN – 11.5%
NZF – 3%
People do not understand how far right ACT are and while Luxon is promising not to sell assets and while he is promising not not reduce benefits, David Seymour VERY much wants to take a rusty chainsaw to the State and amputate 5 Ministry’s plus the Human Rights Tribunal while cutting billions from welfare.
The idea that Luxon is going to be able to stop Seymour getting all he wants is ludicrous.
The quick yellow fox will jump over the lazy blue dog.
The only fly in the ointment of a far right National/ACT Government will be the possibility NZ First cross the 5% threshold and on a solid 3% here (he was 4% in the internal Labour Poll last month), there is a good chance Winston will be back and that will force Labour to include them if they can promise the Greens are on a leash.
Which will enrage the Greens.
Political pressures post the covid economic tsunami fuelled by geopolitical shockwaves has hit the domestic scene with the grimness of a Depp/Heard defamation trial.
Between January and March this year a record 363,888 food grants were handed out on top of a 500% spike in food bank demand.
Between 2020 and 2021,
– $608 million in housing equity was made by landlords
– 9.6% increase in rent for tenants
-18.4% of children live in households earning less than half the median income after housing costs
– $5.5 billion in profit made by ANZ, BNZ, ASB and Westpac
– and the Top 1% own 25% of wealth while the Bottom 50% owns 2% of wealth
If you think the worst inflation in 30 years is bad now, wait until the impact of the Ukrainian war and broken supply chains in China hit.
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I feel that people do understand how far right ACT are and I feel that NZ First will not cross the five percent threshold.
I don’t feel that labour will go too much lower in the polls as Jacinda Ardern’s popularity in this country is still extraordinary, at times.
I feel that we have to keep in mind that both Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis are pretty new to politics.
I disagree. Ardern isn’t particularly popular with everyday people. Impression-management hype is nice when things are okay, or are at least looking like they will be. If not it quickly reaches a critical mass.
The problem is that manipulating appearances only works in the service of progressing some kind of substance. We’ve now reached the situation where we need to find hacks to insert some substance into the endless propagation of empty appearance.
And would the nation punish by means of taking a slightly nastier a dose of the same poison at the ballot box?
Just watch.
After the utter contempt shown by Labour towards NZF (and the NZ people) by hiding their racial separatist agenda (He Puapua) at the last election, and subsequent initiatives utterly contrary to NZF policy, the chances of them supporting Labour are zero. Perhaps an apology for putting them (Labour) in in the first place is overdue but Winston is planning his revenge. Putting them back in is definitely not part of it.
Exactly, its nothing to do with “Political pressures post the covid economic tsunami fuelled by geopolitical shockwaves…”, all about Labour + their Maori cohort, academics & the MSM facilitating their secret separatist agenda to undermine NZ democracy.
Voters are going to spank them for wilful misbehaviour, I expect they will be out of power for at least 12 years after next year’s election.
Yes David and Tresspassing Peters will do nought.
This Govt have treated NZders with contempt. Not coming clean about HePuapua (I read it the other day and it talks of transformational constitutional change. The Rotorua Bill, that Tamati Coffey tried to sneak through.
And the gender self ID bill. The labour Women MPs treated women submitting against that with absolute contempt. I will never forget that. And the Ministry of anyone who identifies as a woman is not even keeping data re the impact of this bill. I will happily see the Ministry for anyone who identifies as a women go down the gurglar…..thanks David Seymour
Anker. All good points, and yes it rankles when dimwit politicians, of all people, treat others with contempt. A bottom line here has to be this government’s determination to clamp down on freedom of speech, and possibly putting seeming extremists in charge of monitoring the clamp – craftily deflecting responsibility elsewhere as usual.
It would surprise me if most NZ’ers are as keen as the PM and her cohorts are to put an end to free speech in 21stC New Zealand, it really would.
Amazing how people like you see freeze peach more important than the right to be able to live your life as you see fit (ie be LGBT or have an abortion) or be able to get high wages, join a union, or access social benefits.
You are stuck on the same wage for years, no breaks, forced to read the bible, $7000 bill if you break your arm, but as long as you can call someone a ‘sodomite’ on the Web, who cares?
Have you read the He Pua Pua document? if so is there something you don’t understand. Have you taken the issue to your local National representative? Venting on social platforms is not going to change a thing, except press the like minded to cough up their share of venom. That being their displeasure/hatred that Maori are having a say in the way natural resources are run in their land. Thus far, RC and CC have done an extremely reeking job at managing the waterways – if you were honest would you not admit this is so.
Can you also explain separatism/apartheid, and where it is being practiced in your nz? History tells that it was practiced, are you able to say honestly by whom?
https://www.teaomaori.news/he-puapua-national-still-troubled-separatist-document
Nobody was hiding the fact that NZ First and Labour’s views on race are very very different – it is always talked about vis-a-vis potential coalition partners, but, yes, of course Winston is going to go with the party that has been out of office for two terms so long as they offer a cushy enough deal.
I am not sure where the 608 million for landlord equity comes from but given its up to 2021 you can be assured that unrealised gain is evaporating rapidly. By election time a contingent of wanker NZ will voting to try and push house prices back up. That’s what Luxon will be trying to do with his bright line reduction and interest deductions. As far as he is concerned the young, who National falsely claim to be concerned for, can rent from his ilk and wallow in student debt ( apparently that sort of debt is just dandy).
Iam not voteing for national there going to raise the pension age iam a trades man we simple can’t do it and Luzon won’t give a shit
Exactly. National and ACT want only those who can afford it to retire.
I was intrigued by Bernard Hickey on the Working Group suggesting Labour/Greens may have some buried bodies to unearth on Winston if he gets near 5%.
If the current trends continue tho neither the Maori party nor Winston First are going to be needed anyway and Labour is going to get the electoral smashing they are so richly earning for themselves.
The fact the Greens can still poll like they are seems testament to some observation on bell shaped curves but I’m not sure what that says about Act as well.
Winston ain’t going with Labour after Mallard’s shenanigans nor the co-governance ‘hide-the-sausage’ trick with He Puapua. The enemies he had within National are gone and Te Reo will warmly embrace another balance to Act (if he needs him at all).
The main game is now when Labour’s support starts with a ‘2’ prompting Poor Man’s Gordon Brown to sharpen his knife. With a result like this there will be an electoral wipeout – useful idiots in marginal rural and suburban seats (ala McNaulty, Twyford, Jean-Prime, Allan) will get swept out in the tide. Auckland Central comes well and truely into play as well on this result.
We are in the nadir of the covid cult hangover.
“Between January and March this year a record 363,888 food grants were handed out on top of a 500% spike in food bank demand”.
But but but, Labour are kind and they care…
I don’t know how they are even at 31.5%.
Well the Phillipines have gone back to a Marcos, why would the dark kiwi voters not go back to the dirty filthy tories? It is 2022 not 1951, natzos are not needed in any event.
This blog should be campaigning on a class left basis, not standing on the sidelines catastrophising.
Unless new gen voters get politically organised in numbers for 2023 & 2026, selfish white blokes will be in Govt. again. The social friction and fall out is going to be rough. Head for the hills as Country Boy says.
I voted Labour in all but 2 elections since Kirk. I’m fine with social friction if it means NZ keeps democracy,
I have not voted Labour since 1984. Always the most left option available since, NL, Alliance, Mana and Green, though twice have voted for Labour electorate MPs when they have had a chance.
Correct Tiger.
Although there have been ongoing salary increase negotiations for those of us in health( which are now awaiting ratification), there have been negotiations.
Unlike 9 years of a NACT government when salaries were basically frozen and the health and education areas neglected.
There was certainly social friction that we had to encounter and will have again under NACT and sadly we will return to an undemocratic country once they regain power.
Yep, one can but try Bert.
A lot of people’s brains are fried it seems after almost 40 years of Roger and Ruth’s toxic legacy.
Where is the Maori Party. The fact that Winston is not standing in Tauranga shows NZF know they have lost their mojo. Labour keeped Greens in check and National would only have to give as much as they wanted to to get Acts support. All parties want to be in power or at least be a voice .The leverage of Act would depend on their seats which represents how heir policies mesh with people who have a right to be listened too even if it is a message not liked by others. Act are too radical for me but have good ideas worth putting on the table.
Don’t rule NZF out, all it will take is a blunder from NAT/ACT for them to gain that 2%
Luxon is smart enough to know he needs to win the center and let ACT take the right. Those on the right are more than happy for Seymour to have a large say in a future NACT government, that includes Luxon. Let David push the more divisive policies you actually want, whilst you act more moderate.
When a terror attack occurs and the woke blame the middle class microagressions and set up a task force led by woke idiots to stop terrorism by blaming the victims of terror, is one of the many reasons why Labeen who were strong during the lockdowns but now letting the crazy fringe groups of woke and right wing get their own budgets to change policy to destroy the country.
When the elite woke rewrite the treaty so that it is now self identified Maori against Self identified Pakeha and all migrants are saints even if they commit crimes in NZ against their own. Nobody is now allowed to disagree with anything or are racists.
Too many task forces led by fringe woke and right wingers being allowed loose or who seem to do nothing but write reports that nobody is allowed to see or act on unless it is crazy woke stuff then seems to be allowed to progress to next woke task force.
How is the 3rd Labeen taskforce going on working out why the public health waiting lists keep increasing?
Forgot to enquire how the wrongful conviction justice taskforce is working out – overturned any injustice yet or just another bunch of government lawyers ‘busy’ and needing ‘more resources’ to get the immense job done?
How about the new supermarket taskforce being appointed after yet another commerce commission enquiry?
The 3 waters taskforce to take over the water. How much spent on consultants and marketing so far?
The DHB taskforce to get rid of the DHB’s?
Or another Labeen taskforce and mass privatisation of state house land to make the state house waiting lists and emergency housing waiting lists go down, that actually keep going up with their woke/neoliberal approaches?
It is now costing 1m a DAY in emergency and transitional housing but many metrics are also not being collected. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300287391/emergency-housing-costs-weigh-on-government-books-costing-hundreds-of-millions-a-year
Weirdly under the old system HNZ actually ran a profit. We now work out that woke and neoliberalism seems to increase the amount of money from taxpayers to billionaires and developers overseas and in NZ ‘developing’ up the land for more poor to live in while increasing the cost of rental properties.
While all these expensive restructures enrich the government ‘friends & family, lobbyists & networker’ consultants working it all out on paper over years with everything on hold until then, in addition to the amount of money needing to be spent on more marketing and communications to try and put a good spin on it all, it makes everything worse for the service, customers and workers in the organisations.
Hey, I don’t want Natz back, but can totally see where the massive failure of Labeen is coming from!!!
Yup. No fucks given over defence then no fucks given
Got just the song for you then Sammy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXK03FHVsHk
Even Putin would be better than Jacinda at this point.
Putin cares about his people and has worked to eliminate unpatriotic oligarchs.
Luxon wouldn’t have a chance in Russia.
He care so much he will not take back the thousands of Ryssian soldiers killed for burial on Russian soil. He created the oligarchs so they owe alignment to him not the state.
Putin imposed austerity on his people, pension cuts, etc. All he cares is about the oligarchs, etc.
With their utter mismanagement of both the economy and the pandemic, I’m surprised Labour is still in the 30’s. They’ll be lucky to be in the 20’s by the time of the next election if things keep going south (which by all accounts they will). Republicans in the US are now polling at an 80 year high! They same is coming here, because this sort of rank Government incompetence simply does not go unpunished by the voters. National’s only concern for the next election is if they need to include ACT or not.
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2022/06/06/cnns-enten-polling-shows-gop-will-take-huge-house-majority-best-position-in-over-80-years/
Every day I find this Labour government a disappointment in so many ways BUT the one and only plus was their initial handling of the pandemic. They saved many lives by their actions which were really only common sense moves but so many countries did not make them. As time moved on Labour were slow to move and both the economy and the citi9especially Maori suffered.
I am afraid it is all down hill now for this party that pomised so much and has delivered so little for the enviroment and the average person
If the GOP win Congress, we will see the biggest ever pogrom against the LGBT community in decades. We will also see police brutality decriminalized, abortion banned and Christian theocracy more or less imposed. It will be highly likely that women will be required by law to dress modestly when entering the USA, and men will be legally able to beat their wives according to Biblical law.
How does this add to the arguement for the state of play in NZ .USA is a close partner but gives NZ no path to follow
25% across the board wage cut is on the way. Not to mention US style healthcare and a massive sell off of state housing. ACC will also be done, and over all, it would be profit before need and wellbeing.
Since when should we trust National Party promises?
Since when should we trust National Party promises?
god help us who help ourselves. that Luxon – Espiner interview was fucking gross. I might hold my nose and swing to ACT just to give him a constant thorn in the side. hahaha (maniacal laugh)
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