As TDB has been pointing out since the beginning of this pissing match, Putin is invading the Ukraine.
The Dow suddenly woke up to this and that sparked the mass sell off late in the session on Friday.
You know war is coming when the bankers start running.
I think Putin’s solitary presentation at the Piskaryovskoye Memorial Cemetery in January to honour the defenders of the Siege of Leningrad spoke volumes. This is a man looking at legacy, looking at the history books and wanting to carve his reputation into the annals of time.
He wants a fight. A calculated battle that restores Russian prestige while destabilising America just enough to avoid open conflict.
Here’s my thoughts on what happens next.
Russia launches an invasion after the Winter Olympics while China simultaneously cracks down symbolically in Hong Kong or on Taiwan. While I don’t think China would invade Taiwan, there are small islands off the coast they would certainly consider taking.
Putin will consider his annexing of the Eastern Ukraine and Black Sea coastal assets as acceptable in the face of Western aggression.
Biden responds with enormous economic sanctions that includes banking which will hurt Russia.
Russia responds by giving Iran the last pieces they need for nuclear capability WHILE cutting Russian Gas and Oil which will cause enormous economic pain in the West.
Israel responds to Iran gaining nuclear technology with a massive never before seen military strike on all Iranian nuclear assets which causes oil prices to explode and supply chains to freeze to a stand still.
Inflation jumps beyond 10% in NZ.
If this plays out, expect China’s diaspora in NZ to create enormous tensions and America’s Steve Bannon network to attempt to pollute the political debate.
Shit is about to get real and will put the protest on Parliament’s lawns into perspective as the rest of the planet burns with conflict.
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Putin has a problem annexing the Donbas region for, as I have pointed out previously, the region will need huge amount of rubles to bring back up to prosperity. In some ways the Ukraine is better to let the Russians take the Donbass mess for the Ukraine certainly cant pay for the regions reconstruction. Putin will also not get to invade as far as taking Kiev. He knows full well that would result in a bitter years long confrontation he cannot afford.
Strategically it is interesting that the British/American forces and equipment are based in Poland. Poland being a NATO country. If Putin attacks the bases there he will be up against not only very formidable Polish forces but a potential counter attack from the Nato forces. It will drag ALL Nato countries kicking and screaming into the war.
Attacking Poland and the Nato bases there, is a risk.
Why would Russia want to invade Ukraine? More mischief is being created by nursing some serious hardware while sitting over the border listening to the daily pronouncements of impending attacks that never materialise. Even NATO can’t ensure a united voice and the Ukrainians don’t appear to have any idea as to which way is up. How is it going to look in a few months time?
Simultaneously, Putin is watching idiots like Johnson and Truss pretending Britain is still a mighty empire and could even be watching NZ, that claims to have an independent foreign policy, being sucked into the crumbling morass of bluster from a President who is losing his credibility faster than he can pull his pants down for a bodily function. How many countries are sitting on the sidelines, amused by the Chinese who are overtly constructing closer links to Russia?
This drama has a long way to go before an endgame is in sight.
If it actually comes to conflict it will be most interesting to see how well America does in this one. Since WW2 they have had a pretty mediocre score sheet for fighting wars against mostly third world level countries and corrupt despots.
Biden is already one of America’s most unpopular presidents in decades. A marked portion of his people don’t even believe he is in fact the legitimate president. Honestly does he do anything to inspire as a potential wartime president? He can baring hold a press conference without arguing with the teleprompter and abusing Fox reporters.
Plus getting dragged into a war with Russia in the winter?
Anyone want Trump back? Didn’t happen under his watch. The old coot is being led down the garden path by those in America that want a war and an enemy that is not China. Politically this is the dems last chance before the mid terms.
The funny part will be when Europe pulls the fingers to the old coot and sides with Russia due to energy concerns.
Well here’s my impression Martyn. It’s a bit different.
Putin cares about Russia far more than he cares about himself. His legacy will be because of this orientation.
The reason there are Russian forces on the boundary with the Donbass region of Ukraine is that the population of the Donbass is largely ethnic Russian, has repudiated the Ukraine government imposed in a coup blatantly and publicly orchestrated by the US under Obama and Biden with Victoria Newland handing out cookies to the insurrectionists .
Now the people of Donbass are facing a military deployment trained and probably commanded by US and UK Military “advisors” of somewhere between 140 and 250 thousand Ukraine military poised to invade the breakaway region at any time.
The obvious reason that the US can apparently predict the day that Russia will invade Ukraine is that this is the day they intend to invade the Donbass region, and Russia is bound to defend their Russian originating population the vast majority of whom badly want to return the Russian jurisdiction as in Crimea.
The aggressor here is neither Ukraine nor Russia, but America.
D J S
Astute perspective David. Respect.
David Stone,
Best comment yet. Thanks.
https://www.mintpressnews.com/279612-2/279612/
,,,, “Yet this is far from the first media panic over a supposedly imminent Russian invasion. In fact, warning of a hot war in Europe is a near yearly occurrence at this point. In 2015, outlets such as Reuters and The New York Times claimed that Russia was massing troops and heavy firepower, including tanks, artillery and rocket launchers right on the border, while normally sleepy frontier towns were abuzz with activity. ,,,
,,,In 2016 there was an even bigger meltdown, with media across the board predicting that war was around the corner. Indeed, The Guardian reported that Russia would soon have 330,000 soldiers on the border. Yet nothing came to pass and the story was quietly dropped.
With the next spring came renewed warnings of conflict. The Wall Street Journal claimed that “tens of thousands” of soldiers were being deployed to the border. The New York Times upped that figure to “as many as 100,000.” A few months later, U.S. News said that thousands of tanks were joining them
In late 2018, The New York Times and other media outlets were again up in arms over a fresh Russian buildup, this time of 80,000 military units. And in the spring of last year, it was widely reported (for instance, by Reuters and The New York Times) that Russia had amassed armies totaling well over 100,000 units on Ukraine’s border, signaling that war was imminent.
,,,,, Thus, many readers will be forgiven for thinking it is Groundhog Day again. Yet there is something different about this time: coverage over the conflict has been enormous and has come to dominate the news cycle for weeks now, in a way it simply did not previously.” ,,,
https://www.bitchute.com/video/MXeJfXKNTwNm/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/H44EYHitZM4q/
On Earthwise, Christchurch Community Radio , I recently interviewed Bruce Gagnon founder and co-director of Global Network Against Weapons and Nuclear Energy in Space..a very experienced and knowledgeable advocate for peace with justice. His analysis is opposite to yours, Martyn.
He discusses the background to today’s situation including the CIA orchestrated very bloody coup in 2014.
The podcast is at plainsfm.org.nz enter Earthwise then click Episodes
ps the public library system has the book Flashpoint in Ukraine with contributions from several writers including Bruce Gagnon.
Not one mention of Minsk Accord 2?
Which Ukraine has signed up to but failed to implement
Endorsed by the UNSC
“The Minsk Agreements appear to be a very sensible way forward in Ukraine; in fact the principles embodied in the Minsk agreements appear to be essential to a settlement. They are really very simple, covering Ukraine gaining control of its borders, devolution and a high degree of autonomy for the Russian speaking areas in the East, disarmament and the withdrawal of all foreign forces and mercenaries from Ukraine, release of prisoners and an amnesty.
The western media ignores or dismisses the Minsk agreements. But these were negotiated by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, of which both the UK and the USA are members, together with Russia and Ukraine. They were lodged with the United Nations as a binding international agreement.”
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/
Less war, more jaw
francesca, thanks, but remember the fact that the US never has kept a promise, agreement, treaty, pact, accord, or any other promise. Never. As Gorbachev said, “Your can’t trust the Americans.”
So why is it these noble Russians keep trying to loot my credit card?
This is a different direction than what I have been reading about.
Melbourne Quad meeting discusses security, pandemic recovery as India diverges on Ukraine invasion threat
8:29 am on 12 February 2022
India’s External Affairs Minister has split from his Quad counterparts over the threat of a Russian invasion in Ukraine, declaring that he wants the group to focus on cooperation and collaboration rather than confrontation.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/461367/melbourne-quad-meeting-discusses-security-pandemic-recovery-as-india-diverges-on-ukraine-invasion-threat
I’m not so sure on conflict being a formality.
The Dow Jones etc is frightened of its own shadow. They are all about anticipating which way things will unfold and then reacting to any statement or fart by anyone more senior than a janitor. They shit themselves on Friday US time because Sleepy Joe recklessly told the world war between Russia and Ukraine was imminent. ….but is it? I have zero confidence in Biden. I’ve studied every US President since Washington and Biden is by light years the worst they’ve ever had. He’s a fumbling bumbling man well past his best by date who needs instruction from all those around him just to perform even basic tasks and answer fundamental questions. He’s a fucking embarrassment. Leader of the free world my arse. Biden is what happens when anyone but Trump is the establishment goal. He and his eggplant administration turned what should have been an orderly withdrawal from Afghanistan into a complete debacle that cost many innocent lives and is still doing so. He couldn’t even get the bullshit scapegoat executions right when he claimed a US drone had killed the terrorists responsible for the bombing in Kabul. Everyone knew it was total bullshit. How did the US intelligence locate the bombers many miles from the bombsite when they haven’t got enough intelligence to write their own name? As expected, it turned out the people killed by the drone was an innocent family including multiple children. What a surprise!
Biden is desperate to gain credibility so telling the world war is imminent, and then brokering a peace deal will tick all the boxes for him. No wonder Putin wasn’t having a bar of it.
We know that the usual way to get your target to comply is a lot of threats and posturing. Moving military hardware around is invariably an important part of that dynamic.
Putin described the ramblings of Biden as “hysteria”. I’m not a supporter of Putin but he is a smart cookie and a very good communicator. If he attacks Ukraine now he will look like a complete arsehole on the world stage who is also a bare faced liar. He will also help make Biden look like a very astute man. Putin will not want either of those options. The fact Putin was prepared to negotiate also points to a peace deal being a possibility. Biden however is not the man to get that job done.
Putin says he won’t invade.
The U.K sent Truss over for talks.
Apparently she doesn’t know the difference between the Baltic and the Black Sea!-hopeless!
And now China has said the Falklands/Malvinas belongs to Argentina….Truss jumping into that as well.
America can rely on the U.K and Australia these days and not too many others.
If there was a global Nuclear war at what point would Adrian Orr stop trying to pump NZ house prices?
I think Russia is too smart for the stupid Yanks and is not playing the warmongering Dems game. The whole situation seems to revolve around America throwing its toys out of the cot because of Nordstream and Europe wanting to do business with Russia. Watch this space. Russia does not want war, the Americans do.
Good tune – eve of destruction.
Whether this latest US attempt to stuff over Russia and USA’s allies for the financial benefit of US corporations, works, we will soon see.
Of course, I hope it doesn’t work otherwise the USA will try the same trick with China, thus they’ll make us cut trading ties with China also because the USA tends to get what it wants, their allies be damned.
Conflict with Russia, conflict with China, serves one country only.
NATO and US military expansion to the eastern border countries of Russia is provocative.
The intent for decades on the part of the US has been to prod Russia into a reactionary response.
Of course Putin is aware that taking on a NATO/US military force would be suicidal but the continued antagonism has caused a reminder to the protagonists that Russia needs to be respected.
Also the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is not acceptable to US business interests but at the end of the day Europe needs a reliable and secure energy source which the Russians do offer and that is why there is understandable hesitancy from the major Euro powers from continuing this Empirical charade.
Could the Russians build military bases on either the US/Canadian or US/Mexican borders?
We all know the answer to that.
This has everything to do with the “world order” according to Washington and a cretin like Joe Biden is just the blunt tool needed by the puppet masters for manipulation.
Hopefully wiser heads will prevail, deals will be done, treatise signed and a handshake moment will disarm this potential catastrophe.
Until next time.
At the ignorant war mongering again Martyn. Read this from someone much better informed than you will ever be.
https://braveneweurope.com/craig-murray-cry-havoc-and-let-slip-the-dogs-of-war
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