Short answer – because of MMP, maybe?
Long answer – I think ACT were unfairly stung by Luxon, he hoovered up all the sub 5% Christian vote and the math shrunk ACTs gains. If you look at the urban vote, ACT have enormous dominance in the 18-59 male demo market and I just can’t see Christian Lex Luthor appealing to them.
The naked truth is Seymour is actually cool in comparison to National, when the media breathlessly reported that Clarke Gayford had given speaker phone advice on testing, National wagged its finger and Bishop intoned that deeply inappropriate where as Seymour cheered Clarke on for promoting RATs!
Likewise when Seymour handed Luxon his Christmas Card last month, it had Simon Bridges name crossed out on the front.
ACT are just cooler than National.
ACT will gain two huge culture war set pieces in the form of the Hate Speech legislation and the Royal Society kangaroo court for Woke heresy which ACT will be able to weaponize.
Luxon will also have trouble bringing back the Labour female voters that supported Helen Clark that Key seduced but Jacinda won back in 2020!
This 200000 block of 45+ year old women see in Jacinda an empowerment of female leadership that won’t feel at all tempted by a rich evangelical CEO Handmaid’s Tale level anti-abortionist.
That’s not to say Luxon will fail, there is a deep polarization of NZ society but he’s unlikely to get National above 35% on Election Day.
So while I’m 90% confident that Labour + Green will win in 2023, the unique attributes of MMP may come into play in Auckland that sneaks a victory to ACT & National.
I think it’s entirely plausible that National wins more electorate seats than Party vote in 2023 because I think a lot of reactionary male vote in Auckland may well vote National as the electorate vote but will party vote ACT.
I can see National winning back Auckland electorate seats while losing party vote which will cause a huge overhang in our MMP election which will increase the size of the Parliament and make getting 51% far more difficult for Labour and the Greens.
MMP Overhang could be the deciding factor in a razor close 2023 election.
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So labour will return as the lesser of evils.
That will be great comfort to homeless people and hungry children.
The fact is that we have now had years of a party with socialist roots and a massive majority that gives it a mandate for meaningful change and it has basically sat on its hands and done sweet fuck all for the people who need it most.
Core Labour supporters may not change their vote but they may well just give up voting altogether.
Swing voters will choose the most photogenic candidates no matter which party they belong to or which philosophy they have.
The choices for voters are tweedledum, tweedledee, tweedleprivatise and tweedlegreen.
Answer to the headline question: “Yes.” How, why? Because they are in the race and people are not to be underestimated or overestimated.
Maybe the Key/Banks cup of tea will finally bear real fruit.
One sad reality is that regardless of what scenario eventuates Paul Goldsmith won’t be far enough down the National list and so miss out completely even if things go totally bad for National.
Sadly I think you’re mostly correct Martyn. A Labour/ Green win is the most likely outcome based on what he see before us. Sad because this outcome will continue to impoverish and splinter our society.
So far Luxon hasn’t impressed me – he’s made a few minor moves that indicate he’s as big a drip as his fellow churchgoer, Bill English.
Things that have yet to unfold.
> Can Luxon win in Parliament? Can he weaponize the inherent racism hidden in so much of Labour’s legislative program and create a push back? Can he sell to the voters just how much of a mess the nation’s finances are in? Inflation? Housing prices? Crime spiraling out of control? He has the ammo but can he use it?
> How will Labour handle manage the introduction of the virus into NZ? Delaying the end of MIQ will piss off those middle class wimmin voters who you correctly point out are the backbone of their support. We now know Omicron is very mild and should be actively encouraged into the country – can Ardern make that leap of faith and carry her support with her? Or would that be seen as betrayal in the menopausal minds of her backers?
> How will the spat within the Greens translate into votes? Their previously rock solid 8-10% support by the more bewildered fringe of society is in many ways more important than Labour holding on to their polling. The MMP system turns on a dime – the outcome is determined by random tiny fractions such as this. Now we find the EU has classes Nuclear power and natural gas as “green energy” will this awkward detail filter down here and embarrass the Greens?
A massive IF, but IF Labour can really go against all its thus far poor judgement and political dishonesty and turn around the housing crisis, at least realistically start making decent inroads like mass government house building rent to buy affordable type of thing, then they will win. That is exactly the opposite of what they’ve done in the past 4 years which is maintaining Nationals failed housing policy.
Forget everything else like light rail, child poverty, mental health or public safety and crime.
But if they continue to fail in housing, all of the above failures will sink them. Deservedly.
So what’s it to be? Pretence or accomplishment? Opposition wilderness or government?
Agree totally Countryboy.
ACT are raw capitalism. Each man is a god. Women are honorary goddesses.
Like gods they can joke about the underlings and seem cool to other gods.
They are the Nietzschean supermen sucking what is left of life from a dying world.
They have to be cast out of this world before they destroy it.
http://mileswmathis.com/vamp.pdf
Keep it up countryboy. Your comments are gems. Hopefully more and more people will start listening to you.
Cindy n grant should loose and lab should win.
Let some one who can stop investors from buying residential property should come to lead.
Not Nat not act , both are to support residential property investors
Look at what they own, their ideas will never align with the ideas which help the average nz class.
Chief of nat own 7 properties, will he ever bring a rule against investors?
Yes….but will they? No.
Luxon represents traits that have had their time leading NZ. He will get traction with those that will vote blue even if the leader was a garden gnome but the rest of NZ will always see straight through him and recoil. We all appreciate he will have a massive well funded campaign to be PM but a polished turd is still …….a polished turd.
Seymour is 4 foot high man wearing the underpants of a 9 foot high man. He gains popularity with the disenchanted. He makes the occasional reasonable noise but it must be remembered who his support base is. Disillusioned blue supporters that desperately wanted to support Chucky but couldn’t. The anti Ardern brigade and firearm users that despised the efforts made to limit certain firearms in NZ. The more you look into the policies of Seymour, the more you realize he’s not much more than just a tidied up version of the McGillicuddy Serious Party. It should also be pointed out the king of those with small man syndrome Leo Molloy is his good mate.
There are many out there including myself that are becoming increasingly disillusioned and cynical @ Ardern but a near pointless and fluffy Ardern is still worth a lot more than Seymour and Luxon.
The Greens however have superbly proven themselves to be the quintessential chocolate teapot. They are perhaps Labour’s Achilles heel in 2023. Labour will never be in a position to again govern alone in my lifetime so will need the Greens to get them over the line. The key to the 2023 election outcome is likely to be what numbers the Greens get.
Whenever we are talking about elections it would be remiss to leave Winston Peters out of all calculations. There are big numbers of the disillusioned blue rinse brigade that will still buy the Brooklyn bridge he’s selling and unfortunately he has a good record of knowing where the finish line is and how to best time his run.
I doubt Winston will be healthy enough to stand again.
Hopefully the CCCFA is the mortein we so badly need for the parasites.
Well certainly Seymour won’t, the facts are in plain sight, history tells us this. I’m sure the most bias right wing supporters will take your view though.
There is a saying be cruel to be kind that would be his philosophy. He is certainly scoring a few hits but I cannot support many of his parties view on a variety of matters
18 months is an eternity in politics. We still have (prior to that):
-Rising inflation and supply issues that will get worse rather than better for at least 12 months
-Increasing interest rates that will cripple highly leveraged households
-The end of covid and how the government will manage this given they have scared 35% of the population into a real-life belief of the ‘shire’
-The great resignation impact on core services such as health, law and order and everyday business
-Increasing gang and crime waves.
-Vengeful people stuck overseas being finally allowed back into the country as some stage in mid-to-late 2022
-More woke dogma introduced into every facet of life.
The only thing that saves the PM and the government is a continuation of covid. With the son-of-megatron strain being a game changer in regards to to fatalities (relative) unless another strain comes through we are on the downhill slide to the finish. When/if females realize that there is NOTHING left over from the 100B and ALL the issues little Aotearoa had prior to covid remain and have worsened then it will be a hard road to convince them to ‘go around’ for another 3 years.
My thoughts only.
Child poverty?…. do children go to work and pay taxes? I thought adults did that. Mind you, wages have gotten so low over 36 years of filth neo liberalism even the kids have to go out to work I guess…
All the grumpy old men are dying out and are forgetting that the younger voters who are not polled, read the newspapers or listen to talkback will likely vote for the Greens – not the greedy Natz or Act. I note the right-wingers refer to property investors not property SPECULATORS. The Aussie banks in cahoots with the speculators have made a killing ignoring funding NZ businesses and first home buyers and shagging up our economy. For all the uneducated comments coming from the right, Jacinda and the Labour Party with advice from the scientists have saved thousands of our lives in Aotearoa – I thought the role of a government was to protect and save the lives of its population. Just look at the failure of every leader, government and country around the world to look after their people. We have been lucky – that Natz and Act weren’t in Government.
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