New TVNZ Poll – Winners & Losers

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
33
2256

Latest TVNZ Poll is out and despite 3 months in de facto house arrest for our largest city, Labour + Greens STILL hold onto the majority!

They are like an ABBAs greatest hits tour, sure you are sick to fucking death of ‘Dancing Queen’ but fuck me if you don’t get up and dance when it comes on.

There are of course winners and losers.

Winners

Jacinda & Labour: The simple truth is despite all the bitching, all the complaints, all the pain and all the fear of Covid, the majority of New Zealanders stand with the science and stand with the Government DESPITE 3 months of de facto house arrest, this is a remarkable achievement for Labour & Jacinda’s leadership. The past 16 weeks have been the worst in terms of conditions for voters and while moving to level 3 has alleviated that, it will also see a surge in hospitalizations but they will be manageable. If this is the floor of Labour’s support and Jacinda can give the country the Christmas they are begging for, all of the criticisms from the Right and the woke will dissipate and Jacinda will rise in 2022.

Chloe: The Greens are perfect for free the nipple rallies with cycling militant Trans ally mommy bloggers, not so good on the economic neoliberal hegemony. They’ve spent a year harvesting the low hanging fruit of identity politics while doing nothing meaningful on poverty, homelessness or climate change.

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Their only hope is Chloe who appears for the first time in the preferred PM polls

Chloe is a unique talent. She speaks with the energy of the new voting generation in a language that empowers and challenges. She is an incredible communicator and if she had the Leadership, she could dominate political debate.

What could be more radical than the youngest Political Leader in NZ History?

Chloe as Leader is a 15% Party. Imagine Jacinda as Prime Minister with Chloe as Deputy.

To be politically relevant, the Greens need to be needed by Labour. To do that they need to take Labour voters.

Chloe can do that. Marama and James can’t.

Meanwhile the planet burns.

 

Losers

Maori Party: Losing half their entire support in one Poll  should surprise no one. The Maori Party have been terrible during the pandemic, offensively describing Labour’s policy as ‘modern genocide’ on par with the ‘Squid Games’ while getting into a fight over racist shoes!!!??? Their bizarre pettiness mixed with the ego of Rawiri has found a barren electoral response from antiVaxx Maori who see the vaccine as evil cracker magic. They have mutated into a cartoonish joke, someone should really get fired for this terrible strategy.

Green Party: 9% at a time when Labour are so open to inequality arguments is an enormous failure. The pathetic COP26 outcome has highlighted the mediocrity of James Shaw and the foolishness of signing up with Labour in the first place. All the Greens have gained for their hollow Ministerships is collusion with mediocrity plus some identity politics wins. The Greens don’t know if they are Arthur or Martha and if they did they would need a 7month hui to discuss pronoun use.

National Party: They continue to languish sub 30% DESPITE all the problems Labour has. National couldn’t get laid in a monkey brothel while wearing banana costumes. They have no clear political philosophy other than ‘we hate Labour’.

Conclusion

The problem for the Right is that National are not benefiting enough and ACT are cannabilizing that vote.

Those who are angry with Jacinda over Covid on the Left are going to the Greens but the majority of the center is staying.

The danger for ACT & National is that all they’ve had for the past 18months is the hope Covid spreads or that Jacinda  gets stuck in a never ending lockdown, that she is on the verge of breaking through all this means ACT & National’s criticism becomes as vapid as the antiVaxxers.

If Labour’s 90% vaccination rate plan works, the bitterness of being locked down for 4 months will dissipate.

 

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33 COMMENTS

  1. I would have liked to see a poll taken only in Auckland. Results would be interesting. I don’t know if the pollsters take into account the difference in feeling between say Auckland and Christchurch and if their polling response spread was weighted evenly nationwide. If you were polling Wellington favoured respondent I would imaging the polls as they stand are accurate.

  2. Labour should thank Judith Collins, nothing more than that.

    If Labour were otherwise a capable government, able to deliver on their major policies and start genuinely addressing things like housing, they would be safe. But they are anything but.

    Yes, the Covid winter of discontent is taking them down but equally is the fact they were so inexcusably underprepared for Delta. That the lack of preparedness was substituted for the only other option, the 90% vax rate this prevent carnage should not be seen as careful planning, it should be looked at exactly like a reckless Captain going one on one with an iceberg vs his ship. Yes the lifeboats option look like careful planning but really?

    Labour are one decent National Party leader off losing the next election. And that does not fill me with warmth.

  3. Two years out from the election this poll is almost irrelevant especially with all the emotion involved in lockdowns and vaccine mandates. The only numbers that are relevant at this time are those alongside one person. Judith Collins. Most of us are certain Judith won’t be leading the National Party into the next election so it’s just a matter of when will she be dumped and what will be the final catalyst? A poll result like this could well be that catalyst. The fact Judith has not been able to capitalize on Ardern’s failings is very telling. It reminds me of Andrew Little during his stint as Labour leader. He was never able to get any traction in the preferred PM polls and even when John Key resigned as PM with immediate effect, Andrew Little still couldn’t take a trick. It is interesting also that despite Christopher Luxon saying he was not ready to take over as National Party leader, he’s polling just one point behind Collins. Safe to assume his rating would dramatically jump when he inevitably does put his hat in the ring.

  4. “They are like an ABBAs greatest hits tour, sure you are sick to fucking death of ‘Dancing Queen’ but fuck me if you don’t get up and dance when it comes on.” – that’s because it was ABBA’s only truly great song with some emotional content and story as well as a memorable melody. Waterloo comes second because that was their break out single, made a huge impact, and is not too bad of a song. The rest of their hits are basically advertising jingles that you can’t get out of your head even though you want to.

  6. I had to laugh at the way ‘Covid Tova’ spun it around.

    The facts:
    1. Labour is now consistently falling in the polls
    2. National and ACT are consistently rising in the polls

    What she said:
    1. Yippee! Labour could still scrape a majority with the help of the Greens
    2. A beat-up over Collins perceived popularity.

  7. Ardern and Chloe – a dream team??? Only if you want NZ to become the world’s most woke country.

    Pass me the barf bag!

  8. “National leader Judith Collins says her approval rating with voters has dropped because Labour voters don’t like realising they’ve been swindled by the party.”

    And there it is, it’s all Labour supporters fault Collins approval rating has dropped, who’d have thought.

    Now, with that intellect, does anyone seriously think Collins is Prime Minister material?

Comments are closed.