First Delta UMR Poll – Winners & Losers

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Covid 19 Delta outbreak: New poll reveals initial impact of outbreak on political parties’ fortunes

A poll taken in the third week of the Delta outbreak has shown a nudge up in support for the Labour Party and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern – halting a slow but steady fall in support for the governing party.

The UMR poll from August 31 to September 6 has Labour up two points to 45 per cent, and National back down to 26 per cent.

Act was holding steady on 13 per cent, and the Green Party was down 1 on 6 per cent. NZ First was at 4.1 per cent.

As Auckland struggles to get out of Level 4 and everyone wants to publicly hang the Wanaka absconders, the latest client UMR Poll drops to give an indication how the political fortunes of our Political Parties have fared during the Delta lockdown.

As always there are winners and losers.

Winners:

Jacinda: Her personal rankings are up 5 points, her leadership during Delta was tested once again, and once again she has passed with flying colors. Her tenacity and courage saved the country again and voters are thanking her. Despite welfare reforms going nowhere, poverty going backwards and a housing crisis entering the apocalypse state, people love Jacinda so much she could eat a kitten live on TV and tribal Labour would blame the kitten for being delicious! Ask most Labour voters to name one single Labour policy and they will say, ‘Jacinda saved all our lives” – when that’s your base line, she is untouchable.

ACT: As TDB has been pointing out since the 2020 election, ACT are now the right wing values party and because of National’s implosion, they stand a chance of not only catching up with National’s party vote, but actually over taking them. Watch them go full blown racist to own the reactionary red neck vote. Seymour is playing to kill National, not win the 2023 election. They will soar once the Hate Speech madness begins.

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NZ First: Based on previous years data, If Winston is on 4.1% this far out of the election, he is over 5% come 2023. Right wing voters disillusioned with National and frightened of ACT will want a hand break on Labour’s social engineering and a means to choke off the Greens. Only death can stop Winston.

Oranga Tamariki: They must be so thankful for Delta distracting the attention of the media and electorate from their insanely racist Critical Race Theory uplifts of Maori children from white step-families. Having the CEO attempt to influence a Judge in the middle of an ongoing case is Donald Trump level molestation of due process.

Public Health: NZ has put the people before money and that shock wave has resonated around the world with pundits attacking Jacinda for not having the ‘courage’ to allow Delta to kill her people. Remember that.

 

Losers:

National & Judith: Every passing week feels more like the bunker scene with Hitler. Judith screaming in paranoia and re-writing her enemies list while her Generals grimace. The attack on Dr Wiles and using Slater again is akin to Trump smoking meth in terms of toxicity. Actual radioactive waste is less damaging than Slater. Judith is trying to wrestle points off ACT but no matter how hard she blows her dog whistle, the reactionary right have already left National for good. National are in a death spiral which neither Luxon or Bridges can pull them out of.

Labour: Yes, great result for Jacinda, but pushing Labour up 2 points in lockdown compared to the 55% they enjoyed last lockdown shows their ceiling and the minute lockdown is over, the housing crisis, poverty crisis and inequality crisis all return alongside the terrible Hate Speech laws. It’s all downhill for Labour.

Greens: Who? Dropping down to 6% is bad but the possibility of NZF coming back will snooker the Greens into irrelevance again.

Travel Bubble: A vast majority think Covid will get worse and want the borders shut. They don’t care about Kiwis stuck overseas and they care less about migrant workers, those voters will swell the ranks of ACT as David promises open borders.

 

Conclusion:

The big take away is the real possibility of NZF returning and ACT eclipsing National. With the only way down for Labour, they will still win 2023 but will need Winston and the Greens to do it. Winston’s price will be a gag on the Greens.

 

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32 COMMENTS

  1. Thanks for that insightful summary. As I see it…Go Winston!!!! If that’s your prediction I will change my vote. We don’t need a fake environment party that plants more twitter posts than actual plants. Advice to James Shaw…lose that Armani suit and that garish shiny tie. You look stupid.

  2. Agreed. National have never looked more terminal.

    Labour, this is a ray of sunlight with big storm clouds coming in. One more MIQ stuff up that locks Auckland down, start looking for jobs!

    • I suspect if he has the chance he’ll get some utu over He Papua and hang Labour out to dry… probably sit on the cross benches and force everyrhing on an issue by issue basis.

  3. Still A LOT can change.

    Once this lockdown is over Grunter and Beetroot can’t cynically impregnate the housing market like they did last time to get a sugar rush economic bump. Coupled with increasing supply chain disruption, general inflation and no prospect of a bubble to give a tourism bump the 6 months post this lockdown will be the most telling as economically there are significant headwinds and not a lot of upside as the backward looking economic experts such as Liam Heir and Liam Dann haven’t worked out you can’t sell increasingly expensive housing stock to people that couldn’t afford them in the first place.

    Watch this space. People that live in delusion getting their bubble suddenly popped usually get very angry……

  4. If we want what is good for NZ I suggest we avoid Winston like the plague. He is totally inappropriate in these changing times. He is long past his use by date and has nothing to contribute. Tracey Martin was the only good NZF member in the last Government.

  5. “Ask most Labour voters to name one single Labour policy and they will say”, ‘Jacinda saved all our lives”

    How truly pathetic is that. Let’s hope Labour win a third term in 2023, so they can literally achieve the opposite of what they promise. Well done us!

  6. Labour looked literally the same in 2014. Cunliffe, remember that guy? Remember Little – the great Union man who did not have the guts to be PM, or at least was honest enough to know his limitations?
    Honestly, these polls are fun, but not indicative of anything that will happen in 2023. Fwiw, i would not yet prognosticate.
    In saying that, times are changing, and i would assume it is natural for some parties to simply dissolve and get absorbed by other parties….i think the gangs call that ‘patching over’. 🙂
    So what is gonna happen to Labour if dear Jacinda is not gonna run in 2023 cause, enough is enough? Will she actually run? Who would replace her? Lol, yeah, not talking about that, right?
    As for the ‘greens’, may they get lost in a wilderness full of plant based ‘meat’ and tofu.

    • Yes its a long time before the next election.

      Always been a labour voter, but my vote is now up for grabs.

      I hope the Greens go out. Their policies around gender self id , hate speech, the pedophile list etc etc are
      well I am going to say too woke, because if I use any other descriptions, it could be offensive

  7. As I suspected more people are happy with Jacinda’s approach with Covid and ‘Fortress Aotearoa’ than against it.

    Not sure if the mall terror attack is in the time frame.

    Greens are galloping into obscurity, which is based on growing annoyance for their pet projects, removing landlord private housing/cancel culture style and identity politics legislation that people are seeing ginormous holes in.

    ACT is gaining on the Natz due to their anti hate speech laws.

    If Labour ram hate speech through, along with what others considered woke or privatisation by stealth laws (3 waters) then Labeen is likely to lose the election, in spite of Jacinda’s personal popularity. Meanwhile more corporate handouts for developers doing white elephant developments for private gain.

  8. I’m voting NZ First 2023. Voted Labour last time but absolutely hating the racial separatism they are pushing constantly.

    I don’t trust Act.

    • The problem for National now is Collins is at the forefront of the party on everything. The fear she drives within her party means her ministers are fearful to say anything and when they do they offer nothing. Think Simeon Browns defence of the Wanaka couple by saying the police did nothing in breaking up a tangi of 50 or more. So he race baits, he uses gangs as an argument on anything. Within a week Brown becomes irrelevant. The cream of Nationals crop left after the 2017 election defeat, the dregs and hangers on were left over. Some even lost their electorate but had the audacity to not read the writing on the wall. Neither National nor ACT have offered any alternatives to the issues they have with the Labour government . Poverty, housing, cost of living, covid response, hate speech is well and truly open for parties to have innovative policy.
      What we get is a lot of barking and after a while, the message gets lost.
      Whether Labour, Greens or the Maori parties are performing good or bad is irrelevant when the truth is the National party are horrendously appalling. The worst part about it all is they had their chance to clean out the rot but they reelected Goodfellow, he gave a vote of confidence to the clearly unliked Collins and she immediately got Slater on the payroll.It”s like back to the future.
      If any one of those thinking Labour aren’t a shoe in at the next election unless National makes dramatic personal changes your still living on planet Key.

          • Nope, never voted for national never will, but i have voted for the green and labour in the past but am happy to state that i have never voted for dear Jacinda either.
            You might be surprised but this is MMP and not the two party system of yesteryears and thus there are alternatives. 🙂

        • Even the most ardent on the right want Collins gone Sabine, have you not even the slightest intellect to agree with Hooten, The Taxpayers Union, Chris Findlayson, Collins ex press secretary, etc etc etc?

          What are your thoughts on National Sabine??

            • To fear Judith Collins, or to love her are two sides of the same coin. The one known as “money for the feeble minded.. She is a nothing, who is unfit morally, intellectually, and philosophically, to be either a leader of a political party with pretensions to being capable of governing.. What is there to fear? The possibility that NZers have what could only be a shocking case of brain flatulance, and install her rabble of carpet baggers and corporate flunkeys into government.. That will presage a very long period of hardship, and hateful division.. That should scare people who care whether their communities thrive or die.. And it’s the half arsed “intellectuals” that aren’t smart enough to understand the real threat these tories, and their handmaidens on the extreme right pose to NZs safety, well being, and independence, that find it necessary to use childish personal innuendo to denigrate rather than present factual reasons to show why people shouldn’t be disgusted by the behavior of Collins, and her clutch of “pollies for sale”… Don’t be just another half arse… say something that is worth hearing, for once..

          • Tell you what Bertie. If National dump Collins for Bridges or Bishop the next poll will have them both below Act and less than 20%.

            • I’ve got a grand to tell you otherwise. The initial bump will take either of them to 30. The reason, she’s just horrid both as a politician and a human being, hell even I like Bishop and that’s say’n a lot Frwankie. Most intelligent people can read people, I’d like to think even you could see she just hasn’t got the ability to connect? Come on Fwankie, even those closest to National are smashing her to smithereens.

  9. A big question for the day: How high would National have to have had for Kiwiblog to feature the poll result? If they’d got to 31% would Farrar have thrown a party and had the minions singing that they were back?

    Or the strategy is to attack Collins by simply releasing the results and letting the disgruntled and those resigned to the truth wreak whatever it is they have left on her by going to Act?

    You know, the classic “Fomenting happy mischief.”

  10. You may not like the growth of Act and may see it as a threat, I take a different view. I’ll use a police example. When a gang uses identifications such as ‘patches’, it makes them easier to isolate and focus on. Same goes for military uniforms, in fact the police wear uniforms for easy identification.

    Now, if National diminishes, and Act grows because of that, ( where are the free marketers to go ?),…it makes it easier and easier to recognize and contain them. The rest is up to how well the left or center left handle them. If the ‘left’ continue on with neo liberal identity politics they will sink, – and sink fast as most of the electorate don’t really care about land rights for gay whales.

    They care about future prosperity for them and their children, a preservation of our lands and our waters, and leaving the place in a better place than we found it.

    Post covid, – and there will be a time as we look at the natural parabolic curve in past pandemics as the virus takes on other viral particulates and becomes less virulent and less lethal,…that there is still the chronic housing crisis, our still appallingly low wages compared to the costs of living, the stagnation of the rural sectors, the 40 year old deliberate underfunding of both health and education and our Armed Services, to name a few.

    The truth is, a huge amount of work is to be done to dismantle the whole fake and failed free market neo liberal edifice which created these conditions in the first place.

    Sadly, aided and abetted by the woke identarian pseudo left crowd with all their ‘ism’s’, the underhanded methods used as in the dirty politics people, those who would rather see beggars in our streets rather than ever see their income tax raised, … there will be much opposition.

    And to date, this govt seems very reluctant to make those changes. The question is WHY?!!?

  11. Housing, Homelessness, Poverty, Child Poverty Terrorism, Health & Education.
    Poll the fuck out of those 2017 campaign promises by labour!

  12. GREENS: “Their policies around gender self-id, hate speech, the paedophile list etc”, Anker. That’s called brand extension which is a strategy for failure. Stick to the knitting. Who knows their policies for land, forests, water, seas, air and pests. Total communication failure.

    NZFirst: As the more socially conservative of the Labour baby boomers age they are going to find Winston more attractive. Special hate speech rights for people who don’t know if they are male or female from hour to hour, yeah nah.

    LABOUR: To be re-elected all Labour has to do is have a plan to solve the Housing Crisis and show they are taking meaningful steps and hitting a few milestones. They are doing some stuff on housing but you hardly hear about it because it’s not at a scale to solve the crisis. New state apartments, houses and hostels for the homeless, how hard can it be. Print the money or borrow the money. Design them for a 100-year lifespan. They become an asset on the government books and the cost is paid by the tenant over time.

  13. None of those political parties included in that graph i would support with my vote. None of them have or ever will tackle the economic system as it is now or see it as the the cause of the problems they are promising to fix.

    I appreciate the governments covid response and that was the right thing to do to tackle a serious pandemic.

    But don’t bullshit with ” grow back better ” when you have no intention of tackling and changing the neo liberal approach that has caused the very problems you say you are going to address.

    It is a sign of desperation when possibly 5% of the population want Winston/ Jones first back in parliament after they way they behaved last time. They were voted out for a reason.

    The Greens are totally irrelevant which is a missed opportunity to have promoted some very good policies and that policy platform i voted for the the last three elections but this is not the Green party of Turei and Norman and that is a tragedy for the environment , social and animal justice.

    The ACT-Nasty Natz vote still shows that many people support the continuation and even harsher neo liberal medicine to dispense to the many oppressed and destitute that are already economic refugees of this cruel mercenary free market and continue to safeguard their own appalling greed and position.

    I will vote i always do but i no longer support any of the usual suspects. It is just the same merry go round and bullshit every three years.

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