Over the past few months, I’ve heard multiple people pushing Israel as a model for where they want New Zealand to go – big vaccination campaign, followed by prominent rollback for lockdown and other restrictions, getting back toward Old Normal relatively swiftly.
There’s no denying that Israel was pretty impressive in its efforts to get vaccines, and get vaccines into its citizenry – that’s partially how it secured the access it did, by agreeing to be a ‘human trial’ of sorts.
However, with nearly 70% of their population vaccinated … this is what their situation looks like at present. Daily new infections are significantly *up*. Now, you’ll be told “oh yeah, that’s now what we expect .. so stop focusing on the daily new infections – hospitalizations and deaths will tell a different story!”
So handily … daily deaths are on the right. They’re down, sure. But still *well* into the double-digits (55 yesterday, for instance). And both infections and deaths have taken a slight dip in response to Israel *rolling back out* various restrictions.
Personally, I’m looking forward to the end of Lockdown here – however, that’s something made possible by an Elimination strategy which has proven its effectiveness time and time again.
It isn’t something guaranteed by vaccination – although vaccination is still very useful and to be encouraged as an additional firebreak for if and when something goes awry at the border.
If we HAD adopted “the Israeli model”, and were as well vaccinated as they are – we’d not be living as freely as we have been for most of the past year, nor as freely as we’re going to be in a few weeks’ time.
And the same columnists currently demanding that we imitate New South Wales or wherever, would be baying for the blood of our Government, claiming that they’d personally been responsible for the deaths of several dozen people plus yesterday alone.
Permanent sealing off of New Zealand from the rest of the world isn’t what I’m advocating for here – although honestly, the more one sees of how dire things are out there, the less unappealing an option it would appear to be, relatively speaking.
But while we wait for science to come up with better and more enduring solutions than those presently available to us … I think that Fortress New Zealand must continue to stand.
It is, seemingly, an approach which continues to be vindicated on a day-in day-out basis.
Regardless of what certain talking-heads overseas desperate for us to descend down to their level of failure may so happen to shriek in our general direction.
Yep Pfizer jabs babies. Yet in Europe where Astra Zeneca is prevalent there have been proportionally less deaths. Did we actually get sold a lemon?
In other news the pink lady has been sprung. All animals are equal, just some are more equal than others……
Honestly I have been thinking that a bit lately. They seemed to have the best marketing campaign. I am afraid it is going to play out like this….
– slowly jab everyone
– elderly first
– vax wears off
– vax passports
– open borders
– bad stuff happens
– political blame
– lots of working groups
…
Not a relevant comparison – the UK dosed up to 12 weeks apart with a mix of Astra Zeneca and Pfizer (using one of each is as good as two of either). Israel more quickly 3 weeks apart. Thus as immunity declines over time – the Israelis faced the declining immunity before the UK. The UK has to watch this as their immunity declines with the coming of winter.
The preference for Pfizer is based on its lower risk profile (apart from scares about RNA vaccines), as AZ has a small risk of clotting problems, and an initial higher immunity for the RNA vaccines (but the Pfizer immunity then fades faster 4-6 months than AZ so the advantage closes).
Panic not! Then think hard about the virus ‘cases’ statistics .
The definition of a ‘case’ is someone who presents themselves at a medical facility (dead or alive) or testing station and tests positive for the virus. The dead are those who died WITH the virus but not necessarily OF the virus. (Coroners do a PCR test on the bodies and tick the relevant box, but the cause of the fatality could have been a car crash, a shooting or whatever.)
Now consider that the virus has been on the march for more than 18 months now, so a significant proportion of the global population will have already been infected and suffered minor or zero symptoms. In addition I think those who have been vaccinated will return a positive PCR test because it checks for the presence of antibodies. In the UK for example tests on the general population show a very high (over 70%) positive test: It’s gone through the population and most people have already had it and are now just fine.
So now nearly ALL subsequent deaths or hospitalizations will be recorded as ‘cases’ thus making the statistics meaningless. The only way to examine the real effect of the China Virus is to look at the ‘excess deaths’ statistics and that can only be done retrospectively.
Below is a link showing the excess deaths stats for last year. Note the spike that doubled deaths for a short period then it dropped off to next to nothing; and that was before the vaccine was available.
Those dying were mostly near the natural end of life anyway so I expect the next few years will have negative excess deaths because of the elderly taken out in 2020.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?country=SWE~USA~ITA~GBR~ISR&fbclid=IwAR0M2tE4YfS30HIU6_0VgDdp8Q9ar_zoro03pQ8wlgmTuwI8wR69DYmVlK8
Oh god. A rational thought based post. That will get you sent off to the re-education gulag under construction in the Chatham Islands
So because of lock-downs, investment in vaccination (and ignoring those with long COVID), there will be no impact on the population level – because those who died not so old are balanced out by those who did not die in accidents because of a decline in human activity …
PCR testing is where you would have a nasal pharyngeal swab or a pharyngeal swab taken – and then they look for the genetic material of the virus itself.
The second type of testing is when they try to identify one of the outer proteins of the viral shell or envelope, if you will. And that’s called antigen testing. So, they try to detect the outer protein of the virus.
And the third type is to detect within the human body, whether they’ve developed antibodies.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/science-in-5/episode-14—covid-19—tests?gclid=CjwKCAjwhOyJBhA4EiwAEcJdcWgrSf9GudUOzIcQl5bc6HYC84hzgNK5oLrSxbFHHQjtVdWB3lUi8BoC4w8QAvD_BwE
“But while we wait for science to come up with better and more enduring solutions than those presently available to us …”
Just finishing a fascinating book, Peter Gluckman & Mark Hanson’s discussion of the unintended impacts of ingenuity and ultimately the limits of human innovation. Might just be that the problems were are increasingly facing, a good many of them a result of our ingenuity as a species, are beginning to outstrip our technological solutions. Hopefully not. But its a worry.
Most nations need the vaccines to improve chances of surviving infection – and surviving infection is one what develops herd immunity. Improvement in treatment will also become more of a factor.
I distinguish that from our nation because we have elimination as an continuing option.
For example after reaching 80% vaccination we might open up late summer early autumn (exiled Kiwis/migrant workers/family members of residents) to vaccinated inflow (if they home isolate) – we might have to have a brief lockdown late autumn if anything goes wrong – and then close borders through the winter (the Novavax booster dose we’ll take in the autumn seems to include flu vaccine).
Then its 2023, we’ll then be up to speed with mass testing – quick detection (mass saliva testing/at schools/workplaces/home testing kits) and treatment of the north proven in the north in 2022.
There is no way in hell we could keep the virus out by “opening up” to a badly infected world. The tourism industry needs to face facts, their industry won’t go back to any kind of normality any time soon. Employers needing cheap immigrant workers same deal. Pressure on the Govt may cause a premature open border and start an uncontrollable outbreak so they can get back to BAU. This is self serving and arrogant with no regard for those who do not want to be infected. And anti vaxxers are welcome to a dose of Delta, you might just change your mind after that.
The government and NZ media are looking like a joke such is their constant whining about help and subsidies for tourism and low wage industries., Covid happened, they either have a business, or close it down and do something else. It’s not their right to have Jacinda (with taxpayers money) personally get patrons for their business, personally get them a cheaper worker and recruit for them at 2018 wage levels, pay all their bills and open the borders in the vain hope that some foreign person might patron their business or work for them, because they have not heard of e-commerce. Food businesses in Auckland are setting up takeaway options and dishing them out in Dairies. Adapt or die. Up skill. There is a radical thought.
The risk of doing business in a Covid ravaged world, should tax payers be subsidizing businesses especially if the owners of these businesses have substantial assets and net wealth ?
What’s the saying? Privatize profits and socialize losses. That’s the world we live in!
“….with nearly 70% of their population vaccinated … this is what their situation looks like at present. Daily new infections are significantly *up*.”
It is obvious that a vaccination rate of 70% will not be enough.
To achieve herd immunity, where any infection that enters the country fizzles out, vaccination rates need to be at 95%.
Forget the naysayers.
95% needs to be our target.
We are able to achieve 95% vaccination for measles.
So we know that 95% is doable.
Everyone has a role to play.
If you have been vaccinated, let all your friends and contacts know, and reassure them, there is nothing to be frightened of.
61% is not “nearly 70%”
I’m more frightened by the woke and the neoliberals than the virus.
They are a lot more prevalent.
We already have our Delta super spreader of neoliberalism for a decade in the woke version.
Fortress NZ is helping us against all of these, so I think that’s why it’s so popular with voters.
I concur, where has been their ” trickle down”?
You may not like neo-liberals or the woke, but conflating them as one and the same is simply wrong.
I think the woke and neolbierals approaches are pretty similar. They want open borders, business to do everything for them as people are less important, they are interested in the short term not the long term, they are ideological, their ideas do not work and actually makes things worse for most people, but they keep peddling a harsher version of it, they hate facts and statistics and seek to minimise or change ability to correctly measure outcomes, while suppressing and abusing other voices so that they can drown out alternative views and ways of doing things.
Israel’s high vaccination rate isn’t high enough.
The country jumped out ahead of all other countries on vaccines, and 78% of eligible Israelis over 12 years old are vaccinated…..
….”We have a very large fraction of our population who are paying the price for a small fraction of the population who did not go to get the vaccine,” said Eran Segal of the Weizmann Institute of Science, who advises the Israeli government on COVID-19.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628471/highly-vaccinated-israel-is-seeing-a-dramatic-surge-in-new-covid-cases-heres-why
Israel’s racist apartheid policies toward Palestinians don’t help. The more people get vaccinated, the better the vaccine works, at protecting more people. Imagine a pile of tinder, if it is dry it will burn ferocioously. If you wet it, it won’t, if you partially wet it, it will still burn, but less ferociously.
The trouble with the Israelis is that they have a large pool of unvaccinated human beings living under military occupation, that they don’t recognise as having human rights equal to theirs, who they refuse to vaccinate, living and working in their midst. Apart from the immorality of apartheid, it is the stupidity of it.
Israel Still Refuses to Vaccinate Palestinian Workers, but Lets Them Return to West Bank Homes
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/israel-still-won-t-vaccinate-palestinian-workers-but-lets-them-return-to-west-bank-1.9550858
The only positive vaccination brings is that you have somewhat less chance of contracting (and thus spreading) the virus – something that might soon be cancelled by the My Variant:
https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/09/1098942
Even now, if you are infected while vaccinated you have an identical viral load and thus spreading capabilities as someone who was unvaccinated:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm?s_cid=mm7031e2_w
Some anecdotal evidence even disputes the notion that the vaccines “slow the spread”:
https://www.thecollegefix.com/despite-95-vaccination-rate-cornell-today-has-five-times-more-covid-cases-than-it-did-this-time-last-year/
The vaccines are a tool, not an answer to this pandemic. Those who are vulnerable (and likely to die) from COVID should get vaccinated. but there really isn’t any evidence to suggest that even at a 100% vaccination rate that it will result in an end to this pandemic.
Some troubling news published in a top journal suggests that the vaccine might potentially help other Coronavirus infect you too (obviously very preliminary, but food for thought):
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiab421/6355378?login=true
A new pandemic that occurs only among the vaccinated would be an utter disaster.
I’m still hoping that a genuinely effective fully sterilising and long-lasting vaccine is developed. Fingers crossed.
Is there a media “blackout” on reporting anything (including peer-reviewed scientific articles, CDC reports and hard data) that contradicts the government “message”? If so, don’t publish this post and I won’t bother posting anything COVID related from now on.
Hi Curwen
No offence meant. I am just wondering whether your graphs are correct or your interpretation is maybe not quite right.
We cant see what the 50 on the right hand graph pertains to is it 50 in a thousand, 10,000 or 100,000? Or 50 out of how many? Usually these types of graphs show deaths out of 100K. So as I am looking at it, this is showing a clear correlation between infections and deaths but at 40 out of 10K which is implied looking at the 2 graphs together this gives a death rate of 0.004 which is I think about double that of a bad flu year in the US for example (But that’s from memory). I am not saying its the same as flu.
The point is without vaccines and other measures Delta is R6 and will carry off about 3? people per thousand at a guess (a high number relatively) so a figure of 0.004 (if I have compared the data appropriately) would suggest that what they are doing is working.
Vaccinated people will always die because of their age and illness cohort. The risks for the ill and elderly are quite high regardless of vaccination. I read an explainer that put it this way.
A 75 year old has an X greater risk of death from Covid, than a 25 year old. Lets call it 30%. They have one of the big health risk factors. So add that on at say 20% (Numbers for illustration only). They receive full vaccinations affording them supposedly 90% decrease in risk. Then you take your 90% and minus your risk factors and you are looking at their personal risk factor decreasing to whatever it is, maths isnt my strong point. Effectively the somewhat infirm 75 year old is still going to have a risk factor 45% higher than the healthy vaxxed 25 year old.
So no matter how many vaccinations we get, if Covid is circulating at all, we will have deaths and to my mind, this is what you are seeing in Israel. And what is not shown here is a comparison between overall death rate pre vax with what they are seeing now. Also there are a number of things Israel can do to increase their vax numbers as discussed above. It will help but it wont stop it.
The graph on the right is measuring daily deaths. It is not a proportional measurement, so fifty would mean fifty deaths for the given day. As for the death rate comparison between now and pre-vax, Israel were vaccinating through the second peak. A quick glance would suggest that the current daily cases are at the highest it has been during the pandemic, but deaths are yet to reach the same peak. Whether the current wave is to get worse or take longer to decline remains to be seen.
One question would be whether the deaths are among the unvaccinated or not, another would be whether a seasonal (winter/summer) trend can be determined.
Just hopped over to the Israeli site, unfortunately it is in Hebrew but effectively.
1. Cases in Sept 2021, highest of any peak to date but peaking in the region of 10828 on 6/9/21 so far
2. Deaths highest on 26/1/2021 at 76 per day
3. Highest death in 1 month period 7/9/21, 36 with most days in August below 30.
If deaths follow 2+ weeks later, more to come possibly.
4. But assuming 40 cases peak, case fatality rate for 6/9/21 = 0.37
5. 19/1/21 8625 cases 26/1 Peak deaths OIR 66 = 0.765 morbidity rate
6. Vaccination and death, 7/9/21 Peak Unvaxxed IRO 19 deaths, Vaxxed IRO 16? and Vaxxed + Booster 0. Perhaps anomalous as the monthly graph shows so many different combinations that it would be difficult to say anything definitively.
Ergo, in terms of death, better to be vaxxed than not and definitely better to get the third booster than not. Potentially, death rates reduced by nearly 50%.
7. Covid not seasonal
Thanks for the update.
The 70 percent came from where.It is toted by Australia but the people I like to hear from like Wiles and Baker are saying 85 to 90 is the mark we should be aiming at . Glad to see Biden has stepped up the game in USA with no jab no job campaign. When are we going to get real here in God’s own and make the same call.
I never thought I would agree with Winston but his call for an enquiry into the slow roll out of the spit test and the fact they did not go for the NZ company.
Not sure but the NZ company directors seem to be short on health care qualifications….. and the NZ company only going for 1 year…
Post Script: The virus has gotten away on us. There are new cases every day whose origin is unknown. So the track & trace has failed with Delta.
The ‘fortress New Zealand’ analogy is now inappropriate and instead we could envisage the next phase as a running battle in a jungle with the enemy picking us off from the shadows as we hasten toward reinforcements in the form of vaccination.
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