As the economic pain and frustration of lockdown bites this time around, people are desperate to see what moving back to the normalcy we cherish looks like.
In our rush to set some certainty over our future, however, I fear we will miss the terrible hidden cost.
At even a 70% vaccination level, the speed and sickness Delta causes to even those with a vaccination means an enormous number of hospitalisations.
We know Māori, Pacifica, the sick, the old and the poor will suffer the full brunt of these hospitalisations and deaths. Whether we like it or not, lockdowns to contain immediate flare-ups is the only ethical thing to do rather than just allow the virus to run amok in our communities!
We must aim for full vaccinations with the necessary infrastructure for annual boosters before we consider putting lockdowns aside.
To make the vulnerable pay the highest price so businesses can go back to making money is not a solution!
First published on Waatea News.
Couple of things:
1) If you continue with this approach at some stage (little) Aotearoa’s standard of living drops – hell have no fury as a middle class housewife scorned
2) Lets be honest. Half the reason we have a predicament is our health system and hospitals are on par with 1980s Bulgaria. The fact we make it work is due to some truely brilliant people however facilities wise we would be at the bottom of the OECD.
Watch this space Covid was always a marathon as opposed to a sprint. No point leading at 10kms if you finish 83rd in the end
Covid was always a marathon as opposed to a sprint.
Very true.
What if we don’t get to “full vaccinations”? Maori and Pasifika vaccination rates are well off the pace as compared to the rest of the population. At what point do they need to take responsibility for this? The infrastructure is there, the funding is there and more to the point everyone else seems able to get it done. What’s stopping these two groups?
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#ethnicity
Knowledge about the problems with these new vaccines is hopefully what’s stopping them and any informed person.
Remind readers Kevin what those problems are, and where that information can be found. Hopefully, not from the clips ending up on your smart phone. And are you are referring to the Pfizer vaccine used in NZ or all Covid-19 vaccines?
As for tangata whenua. Well, I can’t speak for Maori collectively or individually but I suspect its part cultural and part a legacy of colonial mistrust.
What makes lockdowns work is buy in from the public, end of story.
Auckland is now enduring its 4th lockdown combined with no vaccination plan and its a long way from level 1. So just remind our vacant government ministers, using Auckland as Covids welcoming mat is wearing very very thin. Time has come to beef up disease control at the border AND share the pain and the risk! Other centres MUST step up.
I mean surely even Grant Robertson can see the hit to the economy by doing this to Auckland so regularly is bad? Surely?
If we continue to see Labour failing to use their brains and plan ahead properly, not just react when this hits them in the face, then future lockdowns are going to fail and that main defence is history. And that will be because Jacinda and her lightweight ministers failed, yet again, to think ahead and in doing so squandered their Peoples goodwill! And their well being.
The 70% figure is entirely arbitrary. A number that, as I predicted, would be carried over from our big brothers on the other side of the Tasman Sea.
In fact the government has a duty to provide the vaccine to everyone that wants one, but once that’s been done then lockdowns have to end, because we cannot have an anti-vaccine minority holding the rest of us hostage.
Why are Maori – the most vulnerable- so slow to get their vaccinations?
Because many are a bit thick
GOOD NEWS / BAD NEWS
GOOD NEWS : Those who Vax .
1.The encouraging news is that for vaccinated citizens the vaccine should protect around 95% of us from not having to be hospitalised or worse .
2. If we can get the current Delta outbreak eliminated, with an accelerated vaccine rollout to Christmas , all people who want a vaccine should be able to get one (.I predict around 85 % NZ.)
BAD NEWS : Those who don’t Vax
1.As in in the UK and America those who have not been vaccinated are still getting sick and dying in significant numbers ; 95% of those in uk/us hospitals have not had the vaccine .How would that translate to NZ ?
( Current world cases of Covid 216 million -mortality 4.5 million .Mortality ratio on average 2.1 %. NZ pop 5.5 m x % of pop x 2%mortality rate.)
NZ 70% Vax leaves 1,650,000 unvaccinated mortality 2% = 33,000 deaths
80% Vax leaves 1,100,000 =22,000 deaths
85% Vax 825,000 =16,500 deaths
90% Vax 500,000 cases = 10,000 deaths
That’s after every one who wants a vaccine has had one .
Delta could potentially double this according to Dr Micheal Baker .
a.Even at 90% vaccination , the 500,000 people who refuse to get the vaccine will place an enormous strain on the health system and create a public backlash as non vax Covid patients strain the system which prevents elective surgery and undermines normal treatment services and waiting times .
b. Getting a vaccine “if things get bad ” won’t offer much protection in a full delta out break as it will take up to 3 months to get the best immunity response.
c. The flu has an average mortality rate of .1 and covid 2.0 . While saying and believing “its no worse than the flu ” is a current mantra, this appears to be incorrect when most epidemiologists agree on this ratio covid is around 20x more deadly than the flu and delta higher again .So nodding along at a mask burning party with your echo chamber rightwing anti vax mates may not be as safe as first thought.
d. It is also my hunch that we can only afford so many full lockdowns at$ 6 billion per 4 weeks and the account is already running low.
If the vaccine program means everyone who wants a vaccine gets one by Christmas, I would not at all be surprised if the Govt begins to open the borders and we adapt to “living with the virus ” early to mid next year as the cost of indefinite elimination has become ” Fiscally Unsustainable “.
e. Herd immunity won’t protect the” Deliberatley Unvacinnated “as people who are vaccinated can still catch and pass on the virus on to the unprotected group .
f. That then means the remaining 10-15 % of the population ,( the ” deliberatley unvacinated ” ) become very vulnerable indeed .Ideological protection does not always give physiological protection and I have a deep concern and growing sadness for people I like who refuse to see the value of medical protection .Its tough.
f. While the anti vax community currently appears smug in its own sense of immortality ,this may not end well , especially with a public health service which has the 2nd lowest number of intensive care beds in the developed world .
Its a big question , to Vax or not to Vax .
Ladies and gentlemen place your bets , choose wisely and research well , because depending on your choice ,some of us will not be leaving the casino .
Deserves a one-liner BL 🙂
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