TV3’s Political Poll is very biased towards the Right.
In the last election, TV3 underpolled Labour by 5 points and overpolled National by 4 points so last nights TV3 Poll showing Labour at 52.7% and National at 27% means Labour must be doing even better than these incredible results suggest!
In our latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll, we asked voters: Do you think Labour is being separatist, and do you think National is being divisive?
A majority – 43.6 percent – said no, Labour is not being separatist.
And again, a majority of 44.5 percent said yes, National is being divisive. That includes 23.5 percent of National voters – one in five think the party is being divisive.
Despite National going on and on and on and on about segregation and separatism the majority have shrugged.
The simple truth is that National’s race baiting isn’t working.
As TDB has been pointing out since National embarked upon this attempt to resurrect the ghost of Don Brash, NZ has simply grown up and matured on race relations.
For most NZers under 50, the Māori culture isn’t a scary bogey monster. We know our history better, we know the injustices of the past. We don’t see radical separatism when we hear co-governance, no one is imagining Tame Iti and Hone Harawira in balaclavas shooting AK47s into the air when we envisage the Māori Health Authority – people see a solution.
Now sure, there is a sub clump of mostly older white male boomers who get very angry whenever the word Māori is even mentioned and these men think calling the Prime Minister ‘Cindy’ is the most clever satire ever. Unfortunately National already has all that vote, so National are fishing in an ever decreasing puddle of voters with this Maaaaari get too much crap.
National have squandered what little political capital they had left by actively attempting to rehash racial grievances based on fear rather than genuine criticism. Trying to paint a report as innocuous as He Paupau into a secret agenda to take over NZ Democracy is Qanon lunatic level misinformation and the people of NZ, forged into a unique solidarity by the universal experience of the pandemic, want unity, not division.
Personally, I think this race-baiting hypocrisy by National was a doomed strategy.
In 2023, for the first time ever, Millennials + Gen Xers will be a larger voting block than Boomers. Part of National’s terrible 2020 election result was due to this changing demographics. Being angry at Māori is a bit like denying climate change, it only effects old people and increasingly they don’t have dominance at the ballot box.
The Right don’t have any hope to sell and are left with yesterdays ghosts to try and elicit a response, turns out however that bashing Māori isn’t the vote winner it once was.
Good.
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Covid, Covid, Covid.
It still dominates thinking especially women when it come to politics. Some of the stats out of this poll have been pushed to the side such as a reasonable amount of Labour supporters indicating Labour is being segregationist. What polls don’t show is whether support is ‘dyed’ on or indeed the balance of choice…..just.
Until covid is out of the way you can forget about anyone but the Blairite. The same thing happened in the UK (with a better than average vaccine rollout) and with our neighbors across the ditch.
The polls are meaningless according to the Hosk and Judeath however Judeath did agree with the polls that Nationals party vote has gone up. So she agrees to disagree with polls but is selective when it suits. She’s toast.
As a nation, we are only as strong as our weakest and most vulnerable. Maori have been oppressed too long. It’s a no brainer to lift Maoridom every way we can. The best people to do that well are Maori. I’m white Gen X and I’m all for empowering my fellow kiwi brothers and sisters
Tell me how Maori are being oppressed.
Judith Collins screwed up again. That’s how 🙂
Could closet racism be a factor in this poll? Remember when nobody was going to vote for Trump. Racism runs deep mate.
Indeed it does.
Just check out Matt McCarten’s blog on forestry bullying.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2021/05/16/german-worker-bullied-called-adolf-hitler-and-a-nazi-boss-you-dont-like-it-leave/
Agree Monkra – for some reason Boomers and old people are a lot more racist than younger folk. Yet old folk are generally more patient and tolerant of other things?? I hear this racism daily from most of the oldies at work but not from the young ones. The oldies will never change, the young ones don’t need too they are understanding that we are all this life together and seem to get on seamlessly. I guess with more time this old school racism will fizzle away.
Not sure Collins using terms like separatism or radical policies will win her any votes if her personal popularity is anything to go by.
In National world, all landlords are good, healthy homes is socialist nonsense, public services are for selling to mates, schools are indoctrination centres, beneficiaries are scum, Maori should know their place and NZ covid response is a ‘shambles’. Is it any wonder they can’t break 30% support? Next up, ACT abandon their mantra of ‘be like Taiwan’ or more complaining about school lunches? Back to 1.6% by years end?
Covid is impacting on everything including peoples way of thinking. NZers have seen the death toll rise in countries where there is a deep divide both socially and economically. NZers have seen what happen when you don’t have a decent public health system, despite our core public health services being run down. In crucial times like epidemics and environmental disasters having good state services can be extremely beneficial and reassuring for ones people. NZers have seen wealthy countries like the UK and America succumb to thousand of preventable covid deaths. Yet these are countries we often look to for guidance, support and leadership but these two countries have huge inequalities.
Racism running deep? Sure in a certain segment of population no doubt but increasingly has it less of a foothold amongst young whites. With increasing diversity where people are alongside each other at work, school, sports, social life it becomes harder and harder for white supremacy to maintain any grip. to be fair though majority/white racism isn’t the only racism in NZ though to think from all the media that that’s the case. There are plenty of racists/supremacists who are Asian, Indian, Pasifika, Maori too. Racism towards whites does exist & racism within minorities towards other minorities/smaller minorities exists too.
Complete misread of the electorate by National, and anyone listening to Collins on Hosking this morning can see she has not learned anything. When Hosking asked her how her internal polling is holding up, she referred to anecdotal evidence of people stopping her in the Koru Lounge!! How out of touch can you be?
National spent so much political oxygen campaigning for a trans-Tasman bubble, accusing the Government of sabotaging businesses by refusing to allow travel to Australia. Scored massive headlines, a huge amount of favourable commentary. But the bubble has only been operating for a matter of weeks and already airlines are cutting prices because no one wants to travel!
Personally I don’t think Luxon would do any better than Muller, I don’t think he has any appeal to centrist voters, and until National can connect with the centre they are doomed.
The Hosking interview was not in the same style he interviews Ardern, very fluffy though every text he read were pro him and Collins, more propaganda.
Judith Collins is the least prepared leader of New Zealand when she talks about the scourge of maori against her precious little privatised and deregulated utopia, at a time when maori unemployment is falling at its fastest pace in history. Collins believes that she has a degree in Law well if she can’t understand a couple of basic facts like calling falling unemployment as racist then she must have got her degree and advanced theories in economics from a lucky dip machine.
“Remember when nobody was going to vote for Trump”.. Maybe nobody you know, but there were millions of them in the states that were pretty open about who was their man in 2016… The DNA deep bigotry you are alluding to, while still in existence, is not as prevalent as it was as late as my parents generation, and they were slightly more open than their parents, etc.. Religious extremism and woke “book burners” will have supplanted the old fashioned racists by then..
And to think the Maori Party gave these losers a confidence and supply agreement
National have and are in a major problem. No-one likes their current leader. She has an aura of vindictiveness, arrogance and an inability to be honest aka telling the truth. She is just not doing IT for National. Every time she opens her mouth she comes across as spiteful. No-one can take her seriously.
She probably now has the lowest rating of preferred prime minister in the entire history of the NZ National Party. Sure Simon Bridges probably is as of today(17.5.21)lower than her but I think whilst he was leader of National he didn’t go into single digits as preferred prime minister.
Judith Collins has proved how poor National are in choice of leader and credibility.
Still and like true to form with the NZ National Party Collins will naturally blame everyone else but herself for her poor ratings.
I get the impression that when National run out of others to blame for their lowly ratings, mistakes etc they will have to finally look in the mirror and admit they have failed in so many aspects. But then will them admitting they make mistakes etc be when Hell freezes Over and then knowing National they will find someone to blame for that event???!!!!
Lets face it with National when they are not Maori Bashing, Beneficiary Bashing and Low Income Worker Bashing they just don’t have the guts to admit they are only human. And so like their leader they suffer from a ‘superiority complex’ that isn’t really all that endearing to NZ voters.
Brilliant summation Justme. I’d add one more thing, if National don’t cull Collins now, the vile that is Judeath will run deep for years to come. Her methodology is so past being outdated even the dinosaur came after her.
I highly doubt the authenticity of this recent poll, all other recent polls showed a gradual drop in Labour, now this poll places them at 53%, >12% then all recent polls in NZ. The preferred PM seems off too, this is the only poll this year that has showed a value similar to that, in reality it would be around 12% – 15%. Of all polls this month, Labour receives a consistent 41.5% (+/- 5%), with the lowest being 38.5%.
Typical technical analysis. If National is on 50%say thus. If Labour is on 50% say this.
If National is on 20% say this, but if Labour is on 20% we can hide all of Nationals shame, the donold brash, the sex scandals, Jenny shippleys fruad. All is forgiven and forgotten.
This poll has always leant right, so it’s probably even worse for National than you think so you may be right, the poll can’t be right.
When people realize the significance of the Fair Payment thingy, support will strengthen for Labour, but not from the employers round/square table and the national party of course.
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