As surely as day follows night, the election of a Democrat President in USA, and the possibility of war becomes a probably.
Add the massive accumulation of world debt and war becomes a safe bet.
DEMOCRATS as the catalyst.
In the 20th century, it was the Democratic party that was the more aggressive pursuer of foreign wars. Make whatever claim you like about historical contingency or necessity, no one should claim that the Democrats, as a party, are opposed to war. They are a party of warmongers. (1)
All of the major U.S. wars in the 20th century—World War I, II, Korea and Vietnam—were entered by Democratic administrations. Harry Truman, a Democrat, is still the only world leader to use a nuclear bomb on a population.
With the exception of World War II, where almost all anti-war sentiment collapsed after Pearl Harbour, these wars were entered over the objections of the left wing of the Democratic Party. But this ‘left wing’ has not yet stopped a Democratic administration from going to war.
One exception was Jimmy Carter – a Democratic president who pardoned Vietnam draft dodgers in his second day in Office and later, approved the return of the Panama Canal Zone to Panama. These “pacifist policies” (among others), have him rated by polls of historians and political scientists, as a below-average president. (2) The penalty perhaps, for principles?
It was Republican President Nixon who extracted America from the Vietnam war, which had been fostered by Democrat President Kennedy and exponentially elevated by President Johnson – another democrat.
And, whereas it was Republican President Bush who invented” Weapons of Mass Destruction” to justify the (now deemed by UN as unlawful) Iraq invasion, it was Democratic President Obama who failed in his promise to extract America from the cauldron of Middle East chaos.
DEBT as a contributor to chaos.
The Treaty of Versailles didn’t just blame Germany for the war—it demanded financial restitution for the whole thing, to the tune of 132 billion gold marks, or about $269 billion today. Combined with the arrival of the Great Depression, German rebellion manifest in in the form of WW2.
WAR as a remedy for Debt
When world war finally broke out in both Europe and Asia, the United States. … Mobilizing the economy for world war finally cured the depression. Millions of men and women joined the armed forces, and even larger numbers went to work in well-paying defence jobs. (3)
DEBT as a contemporary weapon.
In contemporary times; by his publication: “Confessions of an Economic Hitman”, American merchant banker/author John Perkins produces a precise chronology of beneficial economic outcomes to America, following CIA “dark interventions”, in poor and developing countries coercing them to accept huge loans to repair damaged infrastructure, so that they are forever in debt to US organisations. (4)
IS WAR GOOD FOR ECONOMIES?
America’s greatest contribution to the Allies winning WW2 was not in military heroes killed in battle. Military losses (not civilian) were: Russia (USSR) 9 million, Germany 5 million, China 4 million, Japan 2 million, and UK, Yugoslavia and USA half a million each.
America’s major contribution to WW2 was Lend Lease (take now pay later mate) military equipment manufactured in USA i.e. jobs to help USA out of the Great Depression, and supplied to Allies troops in Europe i.e. Lend Lease pay later = revenue.
What grew out of the economic benefits of war to America, such as jobs back home and arms sales, has mushroomed beyond Truman’s wildest expectations. As Republican President Eisenhower included in his last speech:
“This conjunction of an immense military establishment and large arms industry – the total influence – economic- political and even spiritual – is felt (across the country); we must not fail to comprehend its grave implication”. (5)
PREDICTION.
With America facing massive debt; the Military Industrial Complex demanding a war to generate jobs back home in the munitions sector and cash in the kitty, and now with a Democrat President; what are the chances of WAR?
South China Seas? China too powerful. Move on.
Belarus? Without Russia buying its production, Belarus would be another basket case like Ukraine – which once upon a time foolishly believed America (via Biden’s son) would save them.
Crimea is the evidence that the World understands: Don’t cross this line.
Which brings me to Ukraine. Will America help Ukraine try to recover its eastern provinces of Maidan, which have already effectively seceded? Will America risk an all-out rumble with Russia?
Again, the Crimea outcome (I suggest), provides the answer here.
Iran could have a problem. Jewish connections between the Biden camp and Israel at the same time that China is too focused on its regional power base to help, and that Russia has made it clear in the case of Iran: “We are not a fire response truck”?
Venezuela? President Trump’s interference, was not enough to tumble the incumbent president and recent consolidation of Venezuela with Bolivia may be sufficient to save them from physical invasion by US military?
Wow! Maybe I was wrong in my thesis above?
Maybe this time, in spite of having a Democrat President and heaps of debt, America will not start a war, but will turn inwards and seek to heal the enormous divisions President Trump created back home?
As President elect Biden said on Thanksgiving Day:
“It’s divided us, angered us, set us against one another. I know the country’s grown weary of the fight, but we need to remember – we’re at war with the virus, not one another. (6)
Ross Meurant, graduate in politics both at university and as Member of Parliament; formerly police inspector in charge of Auckland police spies; currently Honorary consul for an African state; Trustee and CEO of Russian owned commercial assets in NZ and has international business interests.
(1) https://thebaffler.com/latest/democrats-are-the-real-party-of-war
(2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Carter
(3) Wikipedia
(4) Perkins, John. Confessions of an Economic Hitman, Eubury Press, 2016.
(6) https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-55078066
“All of the major U.S. wars in the 20th century—World War I, II, Korea and Vietnam—were entered by Democratic administrations.”
Ah well, it’s 21st century now and so far its been all republicans.
Richard Christie: “….so far its been all republicans.”
Except for Trump. A US commentator recently observed that Trump is the first US president in around 40 years not to have started another shooting war. True enough.
He came to power with ambitions to end the “endless wars”, but in that enterprise, he was hornswoggled by the Washington Establishment, no doubt for the reasons adduced by Ross Meurant.
A couple of things I think about this Ross. The reason that war brings about a financial recovery from depression is not war itself. It is the imperative that allows the state to take control of the money supply and make it work for the war effort. This could and should be how money is controlled all the time and then there would never be depressions and there would never be public debt. Money created would be directed where society needs it all the time instead of where the bankers find it most profitable. The separation of banking and government is predicated on the assumption that government cannot be trusted to manage the supply responsibly, and in cases in history that has proved correct. But manifestly bankers can be completely relied upon to manage it in their own interests , and societies interests a distant secondary consideration.
The other is that “The enormous devisions” created were not created by Trump but by those who have sought to remove him by any means possible. The hatred is of Trump not by Trump.
D J S
David Stone: “The other is that “The enormous devisions” created were not created by Trump but by those who have sought to remove him by any means possible. The hatred is of Trump not by Trump.”
Exactly. Nobody who’s paid any attention at all to what’s been going on in the US since Trump’s election could have any doubts about the veracity of your statement.
“Crimea is the evidence that the World understands: Don’t cross this line.”
It’s important to remember that, following the US-backed putsch in Kiev, the citizens of Crimea – having made two previous attempts since Ukraine independence to decamp from that country – succeeded in their ambition to return to Russia. A majority of citizens voted in favour: the return was managed with scarcely a shot being fired.
Without doubt, the US expected to acquire Crimea, but it miscalculated badly. And the citizens had other ideas.
“Will America help Ukraine try to recover its eastern provinces of Maidan…”
The Donbass. I doubt it. But the US isn’t known for sophistication – or just plain intelligence – in foreign policy matters, so never say never, I guess.
D’Esterre
Right on – 93% in fact – voted in favour of return to Russia
Double standards emerged of course when ‘west’ rejected the popular vote as a legal justification – yet the US had already set that precedent with the KOSOVO doctrine.
As always in politics: Be careful for what you wish.
Ross: “….yet the US had already set that precedent with the KOSOVO doctrine.”
Yes indeed. I believe that it’s called being hoist with one’s own petard.
I agree with most of what you have written but there are a few points I think you need to consider:
‘the Vietnam war, which had been fostered by Democrat President Kennedy’
As I understand it, Kennedy wanted to phase out American military involvement in Vietnam. That, along with his proposal for an investigation into the activities of the Federal Reserve and the potential reform of the Fed were good enough reasons for the powers that be to have him assassinated…the phony story of the ‘lone gunman’ put into the public domain as a cover, and all that followed.
‘America’s major contribution to WW2 was Lend Lease (take now pay later mate) military equipment manufactured in USA i.e. jobs to help USA out of the Great Depression, and supplied to Allies troops in Europe i.e. Lend Lease pay later = revenue.’
Whilst it is true that American-made equipment kept the Allies war machine functioning on the western front and assisted the USSR in halting and then defeating the Nazis, and American corporations made a fortune out of supplying equipment (often of inferior quality but produced in humungous numbers e.g. ‘Ronson’ tanks that blew up when hit by one shell from a Panzer), America’s greatest contribution was CHEAP OIL.
At the time the US was THE major supplier of oil to the world. And without oil, nothing happens, as both the Germans and Japanese were well aware of. Hence the Japanese push to control the oilfields of the then Dutch East Indies and the German push to reach British-held Middle East oilfields and those controlled by the USSR. The Americans devoted substantial resources to knocking out the oil supply from Romania once they had bases to fly from in North Africa. And paid a particularly heavy price because the Germans had devoted huge resources to ensuring the oil supply wasn’t knocked out.
https://www.warhistoryonline.com/instant-articles/black-sunday-ploesti-raid.html
Having squandered its once-in-history ‘gift’ of readily accessible oil in an orgy of over-consumption, the US is now down to the dregs (fracking) and in an impossible position of having humungous debts, a wrecked environment, and a declining energy supply. All of America’s woes are products of stupidity and greed and hubris.
As for the future, well the US is in rapid terminal decline, not because of Covid-19 but because of the high level of corruption and incompetence and squandering of resources that have characterised American politics for decades. It can send it ancient aircraft carriers around the world and do plenty of posturing about Russian planes flying ‘dangerously close’ and Chinese ships sailing ‘dangerously close’ but America dare not engage in any actual fighting because it knows its rivals have far better equipment than America has…and for one tenth the cost.
But it’s never been about the quality. The Russians had the fighting best tanks in the world in the 1940s, and the Germans had the best planes and guns. But the Americans had more of everything.
For the past century or so it has been about the QUANTITY, not the quality as far as America is concerned. And using up supplies quickly so more can be made and sold.
It’s such a pity that China has opted to emulate every stupid idea the Americans came up with. They too are now paying the price.
I think Biden will be a lame duck president the moment he moves into the White House. And judging from the way the US dollar is collapsing (The Kiwi now over 70c US) we won’t have long to wait for desperation measures to be attempted.
Afewknowthetruth:”As I understand it, Kennedy wanted to phase out American military involvement in Vietnam.”
That’s as I remember things from those times. It was LBJ who turned up in NZ about the mid-60s (when I was a student in Wgtn) and strong-armed then-PM Holyoake into committing troops to his bloody war. LBJ used NZ’s meat and wool trade with the US as a bargaining chip: send troops or I cut off trade. That’s how it went.
Holyoake was – correctly – sceptical. His compromise: only defence force personnel could go, and then only volunteers. No conscription.
Some years ago, I was talking about this with an Australian about my age. That person – a civilian – had been conscripted; he was astonished to hear that there’d been no conscription here.
“…. good enough reasons for the powers that be to have him assassinated…the phony story of the ‘lone gunman’ put into the public domain as a cover, and all that followed.”
Yup. And like the fools that we were, we swallowed that stuff hook, line and sinker. It was, even then, wildly implausible. Why didn’t more of us question it?
“The Russians had the fighting best tanks in the world in the 1940s….”
The T34s. An extended family member at the time worked in one of the factories where they were built.
“I think Biden will be a lame duck president the moment he moves into the White House.”
I do hope that you’re proved right. The innocents of the world deserve to be left alone by Uncle Sam.
After the WWII papers have shown that the US had prior knowledge of Japan’s plans to raid Pearl Harbour. No action was taken to stop the Jap raid and many US and Hawaiian lives were lost, but the raid served a purpose to launch the US into the war.
The US had all it needed to stop the Jap raid but feigned ignorance sacrificing US lives to turn the public towards war.
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