Climate change: We’re 60 years too late to stop global warming, sea level rises – study
We’re perhaps between 50 and 60 years too late to prevent catastrophic climate change simply by ceasing emissions, scientists say.
Temperatures will continue to rise for a long time after we reach carbon-zero, new research has found, and the only way to avoid the worst will be to start actively taking carbon out of the atmosphere.
But the research has been criticised by Kiwi climate scientists, saying the findings are unrealistic and based on low-complex modelling, rather than state-of-the-art systems.
This criticism sparked a howl of experts promising that we can do something and that this research doesn’t use the complex methods their models use blah blah blah.
The system has to tell people that we can ‘fix’ climate change because if the terrifying reality was clear to us, none of the worker ants would go to work.
The truth is that unless we develop a technology that can remove CO2 rom the air, there is no ‘fixing’ climate change, there is only rapid adaptation.
You want stats?
Let’s have some stats.
Normally it takes hundreds of thousands of years for C02 to build up in Earths atmosphere to the levels we have now, and when it builds up to those levels we get enormous global temperature changes over the space of decades that make it impossible for species to adapt fast enough.
The truth is that we have increased C02 in a couple of centuries when it normally requires hundreds of thousands of years. We have no real idea what magnitude of damage and speed of climate events that will create and cause.
Th Earth continues to heat, methane releases from the Ocean and thawing permafrost creates an enormous spike in temperatures, all the fresh water of Greenland melts, the fresh water pouring into the Labrador seas shuts down the global oceanic current, that in turns freezes the Northern Hemisphere solid.
We go from incredibly hot from a decade of methane and then we go into a new ice age, most species can’t adapt to that type of change.
The reality is most people don’t ‘get’ how big the climate crisis really is, how enormous the impact of endlessly pumping pollution into our biosphere causes and how much of an existential threat that poses us all as a species.
The IPCC report has always infamously been conservative and underplayed or simply ignored the impacts of naturally occurring feedback loops that once crossed represent tipping points from which no technological advance can mitigate.
The methane release from melting permafrost threatens to trigger a warming event that we can’t escape and will bring with it catastrophic change for which only radical adaptation can possibly cope with.
What is most concerning about our response to the Covid epidemic (which is exacerbated by overpopulation and bio-habitat collapse), the mass flooding we just experienced over the weekend in NZ or even the American forest fires is that these extraordinary events that we are totally ill equipped to cope with are all occurring at a time of relative peace. How would these services cope with a plethora of events erupting at climate crisis speed on numerous fronts?
We can barely cope with the first wave of disruptions, how on earth will we cope when the enormity of events eclipse these small ones?
My contention is that in a future like that voters will throw their weight behind any party promising radical proposals.
That’s why I argue that Fortress Aotearoa is simply a matter of when not if.
The current political spectrum in New Zealand can not radically adapt fast enough to adopt the changes we must make if we are to survive the climate crisis. It will require a radical Political Movement that elects a Party to implement Fortress Aotearoa…
- Move away from intensive farming and look to become domestically self sustainable in terms of food.
- Immediately ban all water exports.
- Empower local communities to make local decisions and set up resilience programs.
- 5 year Parliamentary term so Governments can actually plan for change.
- Upper and Lower House (Upper House 50-50 split between Māori & Pakeha that can hold up legislation if unhappy about Treaty issues)
- Massive investment into R&D from Government with the understanding research is to benefit NZ first before sold offshore.
- Large scale increase in Navy, Army & Airforce.
- Mass limiting of tourism numbers with huge increased tourist taxes.
- Only citizens can vote.
- Sustainable immigration and an end to exploitative migrant workers.
- Resettlement Programms for all pacific island neighbours.
- Increase refugee in take to 10 000 per year
- Fully funded public services focused on real welfare of people.
- Mass Green housing rebuild.
- 100% renewable energy for entire country.
- Massive tree planting across previous farming land.
- Wholesale re-write of state services act to end commercial values.
- Investment into basic pharmaceutical production.
- Financial transaction tax
- Wealth tax
- Multinational tax
- Inheritance tax
- Capitalist monopolies in energy, transport and finance have to be brought into public ownership and control. They should be subject to democratic plans drawn up by the whole community. Workers should have much stronger decision making powers within them.
- All economic sectors to be made take steps needed to decarbonise the economy as much as is needed to reach zero net emissions by 2030.
- Free and frequent public transport on electric buses and/or trains in all main cities.
- Health care and education for life should be free and universally accessible.
- Welfare, pensions, child allowances, should be universal wherever possible.
- Public housing at fixed and affordable rents should be a right of all not just the desperately poor.
- All workers should have a right to a job and the workweek reduced with no loss of pay to make that possible.
- Local communes should be supported for control and delivery of as many functions of the centralised state as possible – including housing, education, health care.
- Local communes to support cooperative forms of production of food, solar and wind energy, electric transport, and media.
On a rapidly warming planet, NZ will increasingly be the life boat for Earth and the tyranny of our distance will become our blessing.
Pretending that we can ‘stop’ the climate crisis cascade is sophistry, we require radical reform and adaptation now.
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There’s no question about it: the Earth is undergoing the fastest meltdown in geological history.
Prior to humans desequestering carbon and hydrocarbons under the soil and using the ‘ancient sunlight’ to run their machines everything was in balance, and it took a massive disruption -like the huge ‘rock’ impacting 65 million years ago or huge outpourings of lava, as per the Siberian Traps 252 million years ago- to substantially alter the climate system.
Most of the science of the atmosphere has been known for over 100 years, and for the past 30 years the game the economists and politicians and ‘captains of industry’ have been playing is one of denial of reality, coupled with deliberate campaigns to confuse and reassure the public via misinformation -just as the tobacco industry denied any link between tobacco-smoking and poor health for decades, and poured millions (billions?) into misinformation campaigns.
Yes, it is too late, especially when one considers nothing whatsoever has been done to address the fundamental causes of the predicament -overconsumption of fossil fuels, industrialisation of agriculture, overpopulaton and consumerism etc. Indeed, all we hear from our bought-and-paid-for and worse-than-useless political leaders is ‘growth’. Yes, we must include ‘beloved’ Jacinda in the worse-than-useless category, since she was blathering on about growth just 6 weeks ago during the election campaign. Growth, and jobs and re-establishing air travel…blah, blah, blah.
The only growths we need are growth of knowledge throughout the population and growth or wisdom; and we are not going to witness either of those under the neoliberal regime imposed on us from above.
I suppose I should add that we need growth of Permaculture and growth of Powerdown (the only strategies certain to ameliorate the effects of the diabolically bad policies imposed on us by our so-called leaders, but I know I am talking to deaf ears, so I just get on with it for the immediate benefit of myself and those close to me, so we can live out the last years of the industrial empire in some kind of peace and harmony with the Earth.
Of course those of us involved in the peak-oil and prevent-climate-catastrophe movement in the early 2000s (when it would have made a difference -Transition Towns and all that) were either laughed or were ignored. Okay, a slight exaggeration: 0.1% of the populace heeded the message and took appropriate action.
As for the other 99.9%, they remained trapped in ‘The Matrix’, believing in the system that was keeping them misinformed and keeping them as wage-slaves and debt slaves whilst it continued ruining the Earth.
The ‘idiots’ who don’t believe the facts or believe there is still time to save the system, are going to pay the price for their blind faith in the system (or stupidity) very soon, probably commencing around February [2021] judging by the level of incompetence and stupidity displayed by most world leaders, and judging by what’s been happening on the financial fronts.
Of course, as discussed many times here and elsewhere, it all comes back to the banksters, and their elaborate Ponzi scheme of charging interest on money created out of thin air, and progressively rendering the planet uninhabitable in order to keep their Ponzi scheme going just a little bit longer.
As Mike Ruppert (environmentalist and truth activist who couldn’t stand it any longer and took his own life) said: “Until you change the way money works, you change nothing.”
By the way, I don’t think there is much chance of the Arctic lasting much longer as the Arctic. 2021 could well be the first year to witness no sea ice in September. The already extraordinarily low ice cover is being ‘hammered’ by extraordinarily high temperatures.
‘Above Zero Celsius at North Pole November 2020
The image below shows how a hot Arctic Ocean distorts the Jet Stream and hot air moves all the way up to the North Pole.
Above image shows the Northern Hemisphere at November 12, 2020, with a temperature forecast of 2.0°C or 35.5°F at the North Pole at 1000 hPa at 15:00Z. On the right, jet stream crosses the Arctic Ocean (at 250 hPa). At surface level, a temperature was forecast to be 0.6°C or 33.2°F.
As it turned out, the highest temperature at the North Pole was 1.1°C or 34.1°F on November 12, 2020, at 1000 hPa at 18:00Z, as above image shows. At 15:00Z that day, a temperature of 1.9°C or 35.3°F was recorded at 1000 hPa just south of the North Pole, at 89.50° N, 1.50° E.
The image below shows temperature anomalies for November 12, 2020, with forecasts approaching 30°C.’
(See website for images).
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
The only growths we need are growth of knowledge throughout the population and growth OF wisdom;
The much needed growth is the growth of change toward small communities based on food production for their own needs using the best available principles from permaculture and plant based diet.
Environmental restoration is an imperative but the debt created by the last few decades of destruction will keep us poor for generations if a degree of survival is possible.
Building houses without cement, metal or synthetics is nothing new and has no barriers except the organisation needed to gear up to the methods needed.
The lead article list so many seemingly desirable directions that will only be possible with a collapse of the capitalist regime replaced by a sovereign social based set of priorities. But still all of those things will be somewhat resource intensive hence a degree of mutual exclusivity.
Excellent article.
‘We’re looking at Billions of People not being able to Survive’ | Peter Carter, Expert IPCC Reviewer
” Every month now records and disasters are happening and we don’t have the time to sit around and pretend it’s all going to go away – because it’s not and Peter’s mission now is to spread the full terrible truth about the extreme risks and magnitude of the global climate and ocean disruption emergency. ” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VSE5ubpKhg&fbclid=IwAR1HPbzdEQ7r3zYYiC0uwDSrSrP–KsrJUOoIHkTWtaxYbcqkfXruNgZOWw
Egalitarian Vegan
1 day ago
Yes it is bad. But it is completely dishonest to say we have not reached 2 degrees C. http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/03/2c-crossed.html Second point is that going to Zero would cause us to loose global dimming which will also heat the planet. Talks like this need to be honest with the public, or else the public looses faith in their message. As long as capitalism, and growth economics, exist there is no chance that humanity will find a way to solve this paradox.
visionontv
1 day ago
Having lived though the last 40 years of the neo-liberal deathcult are we seeing a way out now?
Isca S
3 days ago (edited)
I don’t agree…when Dr. Carter said what our species has done is a crime against humanity….I believe it’s much more like a crime against nature and all life on this planet. We are only a part of what lives on this planet. It is really shameful what our greed & abuse has done to us and the planet. It can only get worse, because very few people are taking climate change seriously.
Thanks for a tremendously enlightening talk.
While I personally agree with ALL your bullet points, Martyn, we both know the neolibs will never allow such a positive, transformation of this country.
No will they until we break out the pitchforks!
Is nice and warm in ChCh today, hopefully climate change heats up our winters a bit more. Great for the Avocado growers.
I also think climate change is related to our sun’s solar activity. So us humans can’t take all the credit.
Hopefully it doesn’t get to 32 C, Zack Brando.
https://gregalder.com/yardposts/protecting-avocado-trees-from-heat/
Zack
You must be kidding or you have missed the relevance of the information and graphs above.
The current rise in the CO2 ppm in the atmosphere has no identifiable natural cause and is linked to the rising temperature.
The CO2 and other Green House Gases emitted through human activity have increased and accumulated in the atmosphere and oceans. Arctic permafrost is thawing in the sea floor releasing methane which is streaming to the surface and so is very visible causing extreme concern as this release is rapidly increasing is intensity. The Tundra is also releasing methane at an increasing rate.
Human activity causing warming is quite separate and distinct from natural cycles of warming and cooling. The rapid rise in CO2 and GHGs is not a natural process but has taken place since approximately 1800.
Natural patterns of warming and cooling take thousands of years.
If we take solace in avocados growing in Christchurch then either denial or basic misunderstanding may appear to be involved.
There are many people who just don’t want to know so they become a part of the problem in mobilising effective discussion and action in stopping the damage being perpetrated.
Hopefully it doesn’t get to 32 C, Zack Brando.
https://gregalder.com/yardposts/protecting-avocado-trees-from-heat/
Matike Mai, degrowth, climate justice, decolonisation, post-capitalist futures, reclaiming the commons, food sovereignty, permaculture, community
I think you will find if you spoke to most people their biggest worry is if the Warehouse will have their Xmas stock on time !
The World post Covid is similar to how it would be in the eyes of Greta Thunderg which is perhaps why we have not heard much from that quarter. The masses do not like the outcome
“5 year Parliamentary term so Governments can actually plan for change.”
^ Why don’t we just forget this whole democracy thing while we’re at it? That’ll help the powerless. Yeah, right.
When physical laws and processes invalidate political philosophies then the physical laws must be wrong.
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