Latest UMR poll: Labour 52%, National 28%, Act 5.9%, Greens 5.4%, NZ First 5.1% –

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Latest internal UMR poll has been leaked providing fascinating insight

Labour 52% – This is the 7th poll in a row that has Labour above 50%

National 28% – National are going backwards, Judith might excite the base but she scares the middle.

Act 5.9% – They are on a break out run. The momentum the woke gave ACT last year with the free speech fiasco has created a run away event for the Far right.

Greens 5.4% – Holding on by their fingernails

NZ First 5.1% – Noooooooooooooooo!

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28 COMMENTS

  1. “Another rogue poll I tell you!”–J. Collins

    We have been poorly served by polls for several elections now, there were around 6-7 regular polls and the Poll of Polls. But, whatev, there is a trend now, and it shows Labour consistently well ahead. Hopefully it can survive this new round of Covid–because the dirty filthy Nats are going to go for broke on this–as if their recent dirty tricks has not tipped people off to that.

    They will try and kick the election date out as far as possible to try and ride out the polls–Labour has made a big tactical mistake by not dissolving Parliament on schedule. That kind of unneeded appeasement makes the Greens handing National their Parliamentary questions look minor indeed. Collins is calling for the Election to be next year!

    • I think the point of delaying the dissolution of parliament is that the election can’t be delayed once it is dissolved. And if we are in the middle of a pandemic resurgence the election might exacerbate the spread exponentially. I think they have to do this. The election might have to be delayed, but not indefinitely.
      D J S

      • If new legislation is needed — for example to make masks in public mandatory — a parliament will be handy

      • Yes this is about right to what we have sensed during our involvement with communities that they want MMP to survive post election so really no surprise here. We have many elders saying that Winston represents them so if Labour, Greens, and National/act right wing nuts don’t care about the elders Winston will sail back in again.

  2. If this were the election results I’d be totally happy.

    A majority labour govt.

    Nats clobbered but not too taken over by the rural right.

    Greens back in parliament but punished for their woke shit and will be able to reinvent recharge in opposition and hold the govt to account.

    Act stealing Nat votes and are able to work with the left on drug and moral issues that the Tory’s can’t

    Nzf being in parliament but not needed and again splitting the right vote. He is a handbrake on both lab/greens but also Nat/ACT. There is no centerist party that does that so yeah I hope nzf gets back in parliament but not in govt. He’s got some good policies and we can work on some policies

  3. Polls taking into account the new outbreak of CoVID will be far more telling. It obviously isn’t Labour/Jacinda’s fault, but people’s perceptions are both fragile and irrational. I suspect Labour will poll below 50% when post-2nd wave fallout is included.

  4. I assume this poll was conducted before last night’s announcement. What will be ‘fascinating’ is what the polls look like in a week or two, especially if the cases increase and the lockdown gets extended. Also if the election is delayed and job losses increase the political landscape could change very quickly. Nothing is a given in these times and this sort of uncharted territory.

  5. Nice. 7 polls, hey? Cool. Am also happy for NZ First (in case Labour needs them), Act can fuck off with their burning of beneficiaries and the poor.

    • Paulinator,

      This poll must be rogue unless it was taken at a NZF meeting.

      Let’s just imagine for a moment it was authentic. I no longer see Winston as the man that will provide Labour the security to retain Government. He’s hated the popularity of the Government while NZF went the other way. He hates the Greens as much as ever. He’s routinely ridiculed Labour in recent months. He’s a very serious liability.

      Imagine NZF did get back in and he was Queenmaker. Can you imagine the complete power play pantomime he will run. He will hold NZ to ransom for weeks until he gets more dosh and more powerful portfolios for NZF MP’s. That’s the epitome of Winston. NZ won’t let that happen especially with all the other question marks hovering over NZF.

  6. Collins election strategy summary thus far;

    Sniping, roads, bitching, tunnels with roads, whining, more roads, telling tales denegrating the NZ Government and most especially the PM to the Aussie media, some more tunnels, moaning, blaming, threatening all laced with dirty politics. And another road. Its an annoying background white noise.

    A apocolyptic nasty spiteful personality who now wants the election postponed. Of course she does. Self preservation was always Judiths strong point.

  7. Tiger Mountain-Labour has made a big tactical mistake by not dissolving Parliament on schedule.
    I don’t think so, its a smart move to be transparent as possible and have all the tools available in this crisis before dissolving.
    If I was to guess I reckon we will hold the election on Sept 18,19,20 over three days on level 2

  8. The grass roots nat voters have conceded defeat, and are moving to Winston to ensure that Labour are moderated

    • In some ways I think its good the hardcore are corralled into a pen where they can be concentrated on, where their incredibly ugly and out of date economic policy’s can be exposed to public ridicule. As for the Nat’s, – let them destroy themselves and do the job for us.

      Sometimes it pays to think like a Roman general…

  9. Let’s just put tribalism aside for a second.

    The dream of Total Eradication was a nice dream that we all could buy into. And boy did we buy in…I loved it. I bought it.
    “We’re the best in the World”
    “We’re the only ones who beat the virus”
    “We’re special. GO NZ”
    And so, like stunned mullets, we adored our leader as she threw slogans and money at us. We trusted her to look after us and keep the virus out. Never mind the economy. After all, beating the virus has no price tag.

    But all that looks like it’s about to change because…Helloooo!…Nobody can beat this virus. Not even heavenly saintly Jacinda.

    Very soon, all that love may well turn to anger and hate:
    “Why did you let them into NZ?”
    “Why did you let them escape from quarantine?”
    “Why did you allow 7 guards to fall asleep on duty?”
    “What kind of army is this?”
    “Why are you still letting people in?”
    “Why are you not wearing a mask but you tell us to wear one?”
    “Why did you not tell us what you and Ashley knew all along?”
    “Why did you restrict our freedom within NZ but you still let others freely into NZ?”
    “We did everything you asked of us…we suffered for you…but did you do your best?”
    “Stop telling us to wash our fucking hands, we not stupid.”

    See what I mean folks?

    Eurythmics Song: There’s a thin line between love and hate.

    The dream is over. Reality is here.

    Enjoy this poll folks, but don’t pop the champagne corks yet.

      • More like a sarcastic, cynical little Nat supporter who not only doesn’t like a hot drink, cant stand the fact that Nationals a goner no matter which way he or you would like to paint it.

        Here’s a ‘Keyism’ just for the pair of you.

        I’m ‘COMFORTABLE’ that the National party is not only washed up, but that their ranks are so divided and in complete disarray, that their petty infighting and squabbling makes them so absolutely unfit for government under these dangerous times,…that this only demonstrates not only their incredibly shallow ineptitude, – but by that coupled with the ineffectual and callous uselessness of their current leader and her deputy along with his ridiculous conspiracy theories is more than a guarantee that the pair of them will, – henceforth, – never see the executive powers of govt for the rest of their ( up til now long ) political careers.

        Its over for them.

        There you go, smugness.

        Enjoy.

  10. Aotearoa
    There are two momentous things currently happening in New Zealand politics.
    First, we will have a strong Labour Government and movement under Jacinda, Grant, Andrew, and so many others again, in this election and in the next, at least. It’s happening.
    Second, the Nats and their dirty politics are finally on the way out, to be replaced by Act. It’s happening. Thank God!

Comments are closed.