The rule of NZ politics is to never write Winston off.
I already have and Bryce Edwards backs this up today on The AM Show.
There are 3 reasons why it’s over for NZ First.
1 – NZ First don’t have the power to be the King/Queen maker in this election. With Labour so far ahead Winston has no leverage and as such has been exposed the way Jareth gets exposed at the end of Labyrinth, ‘you have no power over us’. Winston only had the power the electorate gave him, without that he’s just another grumpy old man snapping at journalists, and while that is immensely entertaining, it can’t win elections.
2 – With the borders shut for the foreseeable future, there are no immigrants for Winston to crusade against.
3 – But most importantly, NZ First hasn’t actually won any major battles against the free market neoliberalism that birthed the Party. What is the point if you can’t force enormous change through a Cabinet as weak as this one was? This Government didn’t expect to win and had no actual policy platform, so if Winston couldn’t manipulate fundamental change of the hegemonic neoliberal structure with an inexperienced Cabinet , then he’s never going to change it.
With a crushing poll in Northland, Shane Jones won’t win and NZ First have never come back from poll results this bad 6 weeks out from an election.
Goodbye dear Winston, you crusaded against neoliberalism and only ended up with a free transport card for old people.
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Also because he screwed the UK pensioners, which are probably a large part of his voting base. Jacinda did too, but we’re not such a large part of her voting base.
Winston, you can only ‘lie and get caught out’ so often and still survive.
Yes Jones is ‘gone burger’ in Northland.
It’ll be close between Willow Jean and Matt.
Winston’s denial of the poll putting NZ First and Shane Jones out of politics, is not an unexpected reaction.
Take the following clips from recent media: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119832405/fishing-influence-trawls-deep-into-nz-firsts-past
“Meurant was a NZ First advisor and political lobbyist to the fishing industry in the early 2000s, after previous careers as both police officer and a National Party MP.
“My exposure to Winston suggests he has penchant to reinvent events, then proceeds to promulgate his account,” Meurant told Stuff.
“For example, when Winston was asked to comment the claim by Neil Penwarden and me that a cheque for $5000 addressed to NZ First changed hands at a meeting we three attended, his was response was that our claim was ‘farcical’.
However: Penwarden says:
“It was suggested it was common these sorts of meetings usually generated a donation. We gave the party $5,000. I don’t know if it made it to the party.”
Meurant says:
“This parody invariably exposes him to being seen by some as dishonest. This was one repeat behaviour that disappointed me in him.”
In my view, Winston rode a wild horse; great fun – until the horse falters or one falls from the saddle. The trick is; get off before you fall off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbGUkFnoj8A
Winston won’t take this laying down. His desperation will be seen like never before.
The NZF Party is not only his baby, it’s his legacy. He now needs Shane Jones to win Northland or his legacy is on it’s way to the nearest landfill. He could fix that in that past but two huge things have changed since then.
1) The political dynamic in 2020 is unprecedented which makes NZF irrelevant. If NZF could get 5% which they have 0% hope of, he would of course happily team up with National to get back into Government if the other option was political irrelevance. Never mind NZ First, it’s Winston first….as always.
2) His age. He’s used his skills in the past to resurrect NZF but he was not approaching 80 years of age back then.
Winston will be all out attack attack attack now. This is always his M.O after diabolically bad polling. Who will he attack? Everyone. National. Labour. Greens. Act and of course, the media.
What new rabbit will be coming out of his hat? Nothing new is the answer. It will be the same old same old.
He’s cynical and very grumpy. He’s now looking like a grumpy old cat that is extremely pissed off….with it’s own tail. If he catches up with that tail he’s chasing, he will likely beat seven bells out of it. That seems the inevitable outcome for Winston with the remaining 6 weeks of his political career. Watching his arch enemy, David Seymour take over his position on the starting grid must also be like having to eat a box of rotten eggs for him.
Do we feel sorry for Winston? Absolutely not but his epitaph will be sad reading. I feel he deserved better than that but he’s been driving his ship and the buck always stops at the captain.
He has provided colour into our bland political landscape. I will miss that but very little else.
How many votes will he get from the horse racing industry? Winston may need to rely on Ron Mark NZ1st beloved minister of defence- will the military vote in thanks for all their new toys? I suspect Winston may adopt the fortress NZ mentality and keep the covid’s out.. WP will go only when he’s ready, yet again he’ll draw up to the lectern, point out ‘the facts’ and he will get votes.
Dont write the old war horse off yet, he will pick up parcels of votes here and there, yes from racing, certainly from the military (20000 of them) plus a proportion of the newly retired over the past 3 years who truely value their gold card.(around 60000 of them) I went to his packed out Wanganui meeting yesterday, very slick performance well apreciated by the “old” audience
Biggest applause for his “we are one people” comment. Watch that one! If he can last the distance on the road he will be back with Jacinda.
If he can last the distance on the road he will be back with Jacinda.
There’s a bitter irony here for him. If he had been able to rise above party politics and had remained loyal and steadfast beside Jacinda throughout (and had NOT taken time off for his personal lawsuit), he would now be seen as foundational to her present political strength. He would now be polling right up there, VIA his support for Jacinda. Instead he was MIA at a crucial time and after that resorted to playing politics and promoting party stuff rather than being an indivisible part of the new sense of unity that was being felt across AO/ NZ.
Never mind Jacindafan, Jacinda can give him a nice diplomatic posting somewhere safe (if there is somewhere safe) like john key did with jerry muppet parae for turning a blind eye to all our forces bullshit bad behaviour.
Winstone can get a knighthood and retire and enjoy the rest of his life. Cause he (Winny) cant keep propping up NZ First. I don’t mind if he gets back in as long as he doesn’t get enough seats to keep the handbrake on.
The NZ NRA decamped and went to Act, NZF right leaning voters felt betrayed and went back to National, NZF left leaning went back to Labour and their balance of supporters are going the way of the T-rex.
All the media are frothing and foaming about National yet conveniently ignore that NZF has had the largest implosion during this cycle. This is only going to get worse when the SFO release their findings. There is no upside.
Your first para is poignantly funny, Frank. And, sadly for some, very close to the mark.
The 3 reasons are actually 1. Shane Jones 2. Shane Jones 3 Shane Jones
Winston should have gone to Specsavers. It’s kind of sad he “mis” judged so badly hooking up with Shane as a BFF as he nears his dotage. He’s (Winston) probably shat all over the legacy and memories of some of the good things he’s achieved over the years – at least in the interim. Sadder too that now, the louder he protests, the more people will be turned off. If he really needed a BFF, there was at least one half decent brother to have listened to.
In some ways, I’l be sad to see him go (if he does), but ……… shudda cudda wudda, and he wouldn’t be the first pensioner caught out by scam artists.
As for the neo-liberal disdain, the likes of hold-the-ladder-steady Shane, Shane, are perfectly happy to indulge when it suits them.
Truly Trejuk! Next
Does anyone have any access to polling in Ohariu, where Tracey Martin is standing?
No polls, but here’s the wiki electorate link: Ohariu
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