The three reasons why NZ First will fail

1. Also because he screwed the UK pensioners, which are probably a large part of his voting base. Jacinda did too, but we’re not such a large part of her voting base.

   Winston, you can only ‘lie and get caught out’ so often and still survive.

   Yes Jones is ‘gone burger’ in Northland.
   It’ll be close between Willow Jean and Matt.

2. Winston’s denial of the poll putting NZ First and Shane Jones out of politics, is not an unexpected reaction.
   Take the following clips from recent media: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119832405/fishing-influence-trawls-deep-into-nz-firsts-past

   “Meurant was a NZ First advisor and political lobbyist to the fishing industry in the early 2000s, after previous careers as both police officer and a National Party MP.
   “My exposure to Winston suggests he has penchant to reinvent events, then proceeds to promulgate his account,” Meurant told Stuff.
   “For example, when Winston was asked to comment the claim by Neil Penwarden and me that a cheque for $5000 addressed to NZ First changed hands at a meeting we three attended, his was response was that our claim was ‘farcical’.
   However: Penwarden says:
   “It was suggested it was common these sorts of meetings usually generated a donation. We gave the party $5,000. I don’t know if it made it to the party.”
   Meurant says:
   “This parody invariably exposes him to being seen by some as dishonest. This was one repeat behaviour that disappointed me in him.”

   In my view, Winston rode a wild horse; great fun – until the horse falters or one falls from the saddle. The trick is; get off before you fall off.
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbGUkFnoj8A

3. Winston won’t take this laying down. His desperation will be seen like never before.

   The NZF Party is not only his baby, it’s his legacy. He now needs Shane Jones to win Northland or his legacy is on it’s way to the nearest landfill. He could fix that in that past but two huge things have changed since then.

   1) The political dynamic in 2020 is unprecedented which makes NZF irrelevant. If NZF could get 5% which they have 0% hope of, he would of course happily team up with National to get back into Government if the other option was political irrelevance. Never mind NZ First, it’s Winston first….as always.

   2) His age. He’s used his skills in the past to resurrect NZF but he was not approaching 80 years of age back then.

   Winston will be all out attack attack attack now. This is always his M.O after diabolically bad polling. Who will he attack? Everyone. National. Labour. Greens. Act and of course, the media.

   What new rabbit will be coming out of his hat? Nothing new is the answer. It will be the same old same old.

   He’s cynical and very grumpy. He’s now looking like a grumpy old cat that is extremely pissed off….with it’s own tail. If he catches up with that tail he’s chasing, he will likely beat seven bells out of it. That seems the inevitable outcome for Winston with the remaining 6 weeks of his political career. Watching his arch enemy, David Seymour take over his position on the starting grid must also be like having to eat a box of rotten eggs for him.

   Do we feel sorry for Winston? Absolutely not but his epitaph will be sad reading. I feel he deserved better than that but he’s been driving his ship and the buck always stops at the captain.

   He has provided colour into our bland political landscape. I will miss that but very little else.

   • “He has provided colour into our bland political landscape. ”
     Yes. The colour of bullshit.
     ” The three reasons why NZ First will fail”
     Better make that four reasons.

     How a Christchurch city race track bagged Provincial Growth Fund money.
     https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/423144/how-a-christchurch-city-race-track-bagged-provincial-growth-fund-money

     I knew you could lease Bentley’s but horses…? Who knew?
     “Peters won’t declare interest in racehorse”
     http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/10044225/Peters-won-t-declare-interest-in-racehorse

     • countryboy,

       His colour to NZ politics may be unappealing to many but I feel that is more a reflection of the rest of the utterly boring lot. Most are the perfect cure for insomnia.

       I know very little about the small leasing share he once had in a racehorse but I do know the dobbing him in was pathetic revenge from an unwanted ex NZF man. I treat the whole thing with the contempt it deserves.

       The PGF had more scope for buying votes and rorts than anything I can remember in NZ Politics. Incredible that any party of that size can be in charge of so much dosh to use and or misuse.

       Not sure about the all weather track in Christchurch. We’ve owned shares in about a dozen modest harness horses over the years and have taken an active interest in the industry. Christchurch is not provincial NZ but many of the trainers and riders etc that come for raceday do come from provincial NZ. They and the industry have been hugely disadvantaged by so many race meetings being cancelled around provincial NZ so having an all weather track would be a big deal for them even if it’s in Christchurch. I’m not defending Winston. I’ve lost faith in him. Way too many question marks over political favours especially regarding donations etc and his cynical conduct toward the Government he is deputy PM of after bad polling was truly nauseating.

       Hows the bubble with Victoria you demanded looking now Winston?

       I will always praise him for choosing Labour and ramming one right up arrogant Nationals back door. I will also acknowledge his wisdom during Bridges stint at Nationals helm. I was confident Slime-on Bwidges would make it to election day as the latrine rodent party leader and then meekly hand the keys over to Luxon the day after. Winston said no. He said National would have one or maybe even two new leaders before the election. Most scoffed at that. A year later Bridges was gone and replaced by Muller. Several weeks later Muller was gone replaced by Chucky and Brownstain. Winston was the only person of note to call that. He does know his apples. We at least have to give him that. Mind you, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

4. How many votes will he get from the horse racing industry? Winston may need to rely on Ron Mark NZ1st beloved minister of defence- will the military vote in thanks for all their new toys? I suspect Winston may adopt the fortress NZ mentality and keep the covid’s out.. WP will go only when he’s ready, yet again he’ll draw up to the lectern, point out ‘the facts’ and he will get votes.

   • Dont write the old war horse off yet, he will pick up parcels of votes here and there, yes from racing, certainly from the military (20000 of them) plus a proportion of the newly retired over the past 3 years who truely value their gold card.(around 60000 of them) I went to his packed out Wanganui meeting yesterday, very slick performance well apreciated by the “old” audience
     Biggest applause for his “we are one people” comment. Watch that one! If he can last the distance on the road he will be back with Jacinda.

     • If he can last the distance on the road he will be back with Jacinda.

       There’s a bitter irony here for him. If he had been able to rise above party politics and had remained loyal and steadfast beside Jacinda throughout (and had NOT taken time off for his personal lawsuit), he would now be seen as foundational to her present political strength. He would now be polling right up there, VIA his support for Jacinda. Instead he was MIA at a crucial time and after that resorted to playing politics and promoting party stuff rather than being an indivisible part of the new sense of unity that was being felt across AO/ NZ.

5. Never mind Jacindafan, Jacinda can give him a nice diplomatic posting somewhere safe (if there is somewhere safe) like john key did with jerry muppet parae for turning a blind eye to all our forces bullshit bad behaviour.
   Winstone can get a knighthood and retire and enjoy the rest of his life. Cause he (Winny) cant keep propping up NZ First. I don’t mind if he gets back in as long as he doesn’t get enough seats to keep the handbrake on.

6. The NZ NRA decamped and went to Act, NZF right leaning voters felt betrayed and went back to National, NZF left leaning went back to Labour and their balance of supporters are going the way of the T-rex.

   All the media are frothing and foaming about National yet conveniently ignore that NZF has had the largest implosion during this cycle. This is only going to get worse when the SFO release their findings. There is no upside.

   • Your first para is poignantly funny, Frank. And, sadly for some, very close to the mark.

   • Frank
     Right on
     Both paras
     Ross

7. The 3 reasons are actually 1. Shane Jones 2. Shane Jones 3 Shane Jones
   Winston should have gone to Specsavers. It’s kind of sad he “mis” judged so badly hooking up with Shane as a BFF as he nears his dotage. He’s (Winston) probably shat all over the legacy and memories of some of the good things he’s achieved over the years – at least in the interim. Sadder too that now, the louder he protests, the more people will be turned off. If he really needed a BFF, there was at least one half decent brother to have listened to.
   In some ways, I’l be sad to see him go (if he does), but ……… shudda cudda wudda, and he wouldn’t be the first pensioner caught out by scam artists.
   As for the neo-liberal disdain, the likes of hold-the-ladder-steady Shane, Shane, are perfectly happy to indulge when it suits them.
   Truly Trejuk! Next

8. Does anyone have any access to polling in Ohariu, where Tracey Martin is standing?

   • No polls, but here’s the wiki electorate link: Ohariu

9. While polls show Labour at over 50% at the moment, that may well change now that campaigning has begun in earnest. Nobody has ever managed to get an absolute majority under MMP.

   National ruling him out cuts him out of that option so his only route to government is to do another deal with Labour.

   What nobody has mentioned is the soon to be released SFO report on his election funding fraud. I heard he’s trying to get an injunction against its release. Even if he does, the mere fact of him preventing publication is great material for the media to hammer him with.

10. I saw the NZ1st hoardings in Tauranga. Featuring Winston. Bad bad photo. He’s not looking to camera. Expression looks desponded…defeated. He must have taken a selfie portrait while looking in the mirror. Horrible billboards.

    • Disagree…Good photo!

      Btw out in the rural areas Winston can draw crowds of hundreds of farmers( standing room only ….and the surplus pour out the doors)

      ….unlike the Greens who are lucky to get 10 and then only a couple of farmers if they are lucky

      Farmers are not stupid …farmers would be slitting their own throats to vote Green with the Green’s proposed rural land tax

      …this will bankrupt farmers , force them off the farms they have held for generations, or force rural land subdivision

      …no doubt rich foreigners ( friends of the Greens)with their bitcoin will buy up NZ farmers productive land

      Labour Party should be very afraid of the so-called Greens sink hole

      • BTW I know a liddle Gweenie who told me he was going to solve NZs housing problem:

        1. For a starters: he said my back section was a waste of space

        ( too bad it had a vege garden and some fruit trees and a clothesline and some lovely flowers….he didnt seem to notice)

        2. He said the local park was a waste of space too and should be used for housing

        (the liddle Gweenie didnt seem to notice the lovely trees and the great grounds where teenagers and youngsters played all sorts of sports…. and middle aged people ran and elderly people walked their doggies …and little kiddies kids played on the swings and slides )

        His best friend is Chinese

        ( I was gobsmacked at the time and did not want to be rude …but on thinking about what this liddle Gweenie had said ….I should have replied “Well this is New Zealand not China”)

        • btw the local park in question above was donated by a farmer for the enjoyment of New Zealanders ( irony much)

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