PRESIDENT-ELECT JAIR BOLSONARO and Halloween are made for each other. If you’re attempting to evoke feelings of fear and dread, then the next President of Brazil is indisputably the right man for the job. For sheer terror, however, nothing beats contemplating the people whose votes propelled him into office.
What does it say about the 55 percent of Brazilian voters who supported Bolsonaro that they were willing to set aside his open support for the former military dictatorship? (Apparently its biggest failing was not killing enough dissidents!) Or, that they refused to be put off by his overt expressions of racism, misogyny and homophobia? (He’d rather his son was dead than gay.) How could a country which, for the past decade-and-a-half, had voted for the left-wing Workers’ Party, suddenly be persuaded to elect the “Trump of the Tropics”?
One might just as easily ask: How could the people who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 possibly have voted for Donald Trump in 2016? Or: What made the men and women of Waitakere, Labour supporters for most of their lives, deliver their votes to National’s Paula Bennett in 2008? What is it that leads people to vote against their own objective interests?
The straightforward answer to that question is the subjective rage of a hard-pressed and/or deeply disillusioned electorate. Such was certainly the case in Brazil. Under the Workers’ Party, the Brazilian economy, following an impressive initial surge in the early 2000s, succumbed to a vicious recessionary one-two punch inflicted by the global financial system. After lifting the living standards of 20 million of the poorest Brazilians, the Workers’ Party was bullied by its Wall Street creditors into imposing a grim austerity regime on the Brazilian working-class.
As if this wasn’t enough, an unflinching team of investigators had exposed political corruption on a truly massive scale. Its stain had spread inexorably through the entire Brazilian political class; undermining and ultimately destroying two Workers’ Party presidents (Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, better known as “Lula”, and Dilma Rousseff.) In the election just past, districts which had been Workers’ Party strongholds for decades went to Bolsonaro by wide margins. Partly, this was a reflection of angry and embittered Workers’ Party supporters seeking revenge; but mostly, it was the consequence of mass working-class abstentions. Huge numbers of former Workers’ Party supporters simply stayed at home.
The disillusionment of working-class voters, and the demobilisation of working-class political strength it encourages, produces two extremely dangerous political effects. First, it allows the Right to shrug-off any obligation to conduct itself responsibly. Without the consciousness of having to behave itself – or suffer the electoral consequences – the Right feels free to up-the-ante by encouraging its more unruly elements to give free rein to their most incendiary rhetoric. The result is a swift and pronounced deterioration in the political climate – an environment in which the Right is obviously best placed to flourish.
Restraint having become electorally counterproductive, the scene is thus set for the second extremely dangerous political effect to manifest itself.
Strong and progressive working-class parties not only discourage the parties of the Right from behaving badly, they also serve to isolate and disarm the more conservative elements within their own ranks. These people may privately abhor many of the policies advanced by the Left’s leaders – especially those relating to race, sexuality and gender. But, so long as “their” party delivers economically, the open expression of racist, sexist and homophobic views is resisted. If, however, their economic security and status is undermined by their own party’s policies, and its support declines accordingly, then the willingness of working-class conservatives to go on biting their tongues will decline with it.
Working-class demobilisation thus produces a perfect political storm. It emboldens the worst elements of the Right even as it causes the political discipline among working-class conservatives to weaken. The result is an apparent coming together of right-wing middle- and working-class voters: usually around a charismatic right-wing leader who is willing to give eloquent voice to all those inflammatory prejudices which, in less dangerous times, are kept out of “mainstream” political discourse.
Conservatives of all classes are thereby encouraged to use their vote as a weapon against all those social elements deemed responsible for their loss of security and status.
The result is a Jair Bolsonaro; a Donald Trump; or even – lest we Kiwis begin to feel too smugly superior to all those sad Brazilians and Americans – a Rob Muldoon.
“A Rob Muldoon” – better than “a John Key”
good analysis, Bolsonaro`s tendency to conflate political activism with violent crime makes a future coup more rather than less likely (in the name of national security of course – just like last time)
Same thing screws over every other military. Lack of ammo, food and component leadership. Once that goes they really ain’t that loyal.
Looks like another evil b …d in power just what the world needs and wait till Merkel is gone we will see big problems in Germany too its just a matter of time more unrest more divisiveness and so on and at a time when we have the Russians and Saudis playing up.
Say what you will about Mutti, good, bad, what ever.
There are no static sectors any more, they moved to the east and they’re not coming back. All the new jobs is in the tertiary sector, in the services sector, in renewables. We just need to get a grip on our universities because they’re being run by a bunch of no hopers desperate to appease the austerity gods.
We aren’t going to build more universities so we have to expand the ones we already have not close libraries ect. Theres many levers the government can pull to punish any dissident. Air New Zealand Chairmen resigned + other trade scenarios with other players. Its over. Jacinda is in charge & Winston has no choice but to play game.
Michelle: “…wait till Merkel is gone we will see big problems in Germany too…”
Why would you think that? Germany was a prosperous democracy before Merkel, there is no reason to suppose that will not continue. Merkel is by no means the longest-serving of the post-War German chancellors, either. That prize goes to Helmut Kohl, who was in power for 16 years. It’s tended to be a bit of a pattern with German chancellors, that they stay a long time in office; though there’ve been a few who’ve had short terms. I’m in the fortunate position of being able to remember all the way back to Konrad Adenauer, the first post-War chancellor: his term lasted 14 years.
“…at a time when we have the Russians and Saudis playing up.”
I’m not sure where you’re getting your news; that certainly isn’t true of the Russians, and the Saudis aren’t a large enough polity to do more than cause trouble in their own backyard, as they are at present. And if they didn’t have the support of the US, they likely wouldn’t be able to get up to even as much mischief as they have.
As to Russia: we have that polity to thank for averting a shooting war in the eastern Mediterranean. Count your blessings: I wouldn’t bet money on our current government not getting involved in conflict there, had things escalated. Which – fortunately – they haven’t. Yet. I dunno about you, but I’m damned if I’ll see my offspring (or anybody else’s from NZ) trucked off to the ME as cannon fodder, just because our government believes it has to support our so-called allies. Two of my uncles were blown to bits at Gallipoli in 1915: no remains even to bury, let alone to repatriate. That’s quite enough death from my family, in pursuit of wild geese in the ME, thanks very much.
If you wish to be concerned about the potential for conflict in the world right now, I recommend that you pay attention to what the crazies in NATO are up to right now. Anybody’d think that they actually WANT to go to war. Oh wait….
I did just catch up with a Brazilian I met years ago when the person was in New Zealand. I was only a bit surprised about what the person confided to me, saying, they now hoped Brazil would come out better under Bolsonaro’s leadership.
When I had another Brazilian stay with me temporarily over a year and a half ago, I learned that things are terrible in Brazil, they had years ago enjoyed a boom period, partly based in high petroleum prices (Petrobras is one of the largest producers world wide), they also enjoyed a boost in exports of resources like soy beans and the likes to China.
Things looked good under Lula, for a while, and his government went about to redistribute wealth to support the poor Brazilians, many of whom are descendants of African slaves and who live in many of the favelas or in the impoverished North East.
They also brought in improvements to workers’ rights and minimum standards and incomes were lifted. Big business could cope with that, especially when the economy was ticking along nicely.
But then came the drop in oil prices and also a slowing of the economy in China and other places, suddenly the exports dropped, and internally pressures went onto businesses and individuals, now faced with high costs, which they smaller ones could no longer cope with anymore, making life unbearable. Job losses were happening everywhere, and people were forced to tap into their savings, if they had any.
The poor resorted to more desperate measures, as casual work did not provide enough, crime seems to have increased, and dodgy practices. Drug dealing was done to supplement income, and government payouts were not enough for many to survive.
As in any country, when the good times turn to bad times, and things go downhill, people get worried, scared and desperate. As it is, the crisis in Brazil, although the worst was slowed down a year or two ago, has lingered on for longer than most ordinary mortal humans would cope with.
So adding the corruption scandals, which appear to have had some substance when being proved, also involving the Workers’ Party and so, people became ever more divided. The present government is tied into corruption scandals, and few people saw anything positive in any politician. In such an environment it is easy for the extremist hard talkers to win votes, that is what Bolsonaro did and succeeded with.
He is no Hitler, but Hitler exploited similar desperation in Germany when he rose to power, and Bolsonaro did the same in Brazil now.
Only the desperate and blindly faithful stuck with the left and Hadad, many others did not bother voting or votes Bolsonaro. Especially the middle class, who lost a lot of income and wealth, after they had enjoyed some very good years, they voted for him, also to deal with crime and so.
Expect a ruthless government to take over, a bit like General Pinochet had in Chile, and expect polarisation in Brazilian population and media, which is sadly lacking, mostly owned by a few corporates or individuals that are rich and powerful.
Bolsonaro wants to allow more mining in the Amazon area, and possibly will let the deforestation and so continue. It shows when people are desperate, the last thing they care about is the environment. They only think of themselves now and want quick and easy solutions. If that involves dealing ruthlessly to enemies or disliked parts of the populations, they will have no issue with that, they will turn the other way, if they would not participate in the witch hunt and so themselves.
Modern day fascism has many faces, Bolsonaro is one of it.
The war coming will boil down to a holy war of evil v good.
US, Israel, England, France (nato), Brazil, Australia, Ukraine on the evil side v Russia, China, Venezuela, Turkey, Iran. Question is where will NZ sit. Can we break free from the US, England bullshit, we once defied US on nukes and luckily survived. War is a blink from starting in Ukraine, Syria, Venezuela. Where will we sit
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