As The Daily Blog predicted and pointed out the day after the Election, the Special votes have helped reset the political landscape.
Labour and the Greens went up by one each and National lost 2.
Everything changes from this result.
Labour + NZ First + Greens go from 61, a bare majority that leaves no room for by-elections, to 63 which is a functioning Parliamentary majority and the same majority National have used to govern for 9 years so the claims of instability are simply not valid.
A combined National-NZ First majority would be 65 compared to the Labour-NZ First-Green 63, so the arguments of legitimacy also become meaningless.
And the total share of vote for the entire right bloc become 45% against the Left bloc vote of 55% so the vote for change is the clear majority.
The reality after the Specials were counted makes all that mainstream media coverage of National as the victors look pretty vapid in the cold light of those stats.
Even Matthew Hooton seems to be suffering from the 5 grief stages of Hootinism as he sees the Right lose their grip on power…
…Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression followed by mass media manipulation.
What has to happen now is Labour strategists need to take NZ First policy and Green policy and weave them together with Labour values to create hybrid ideas that provide big vision.
The question is whether or not Labour have the imagination and courage to provide that type of political leadership.
If they can’t, National might win by default.
Is it just me or does any one else believe that Hooten is quite deranged?
If Winston could just please go left, then it could well be the end of Hooten.
Hooton is deranged and unhinged. msm persist in having this National party mouthpiece front up on tv and radio as a political commentator which I think is outrageous and completely unprofessional. Would like to see Hooton and a number of National party apologists within the media gone. The complicit media in NZ have a lot to answer for imo.
You’re not alone Bert,a week prior to the election Hooten was so sure National would loose the election due to the MSM desire to change the government, absolutely delusional.
I feel he needs some form of metal health support, a very depressing, unhappy fellow.
If Winston doesn’t go left,then it may be the end of Winston and NZF.
Agreed Barry.
Agreed Barry
Hooton is just another of that group of aging white males in denial of the necessity for economic, environmental and societal change
Old ‘cobbers’ past there use by date.
Yes, Hooten is a person whom only has interest in himself, not others, so is the perfect fit for National.
Labour-Green simply MUST convince Winston to go to the ball with them.
Why? Because there won’t be a second chance.
One of the memes being seeded online is the notion that somehow Jacinda needs another 3 years to ‘mature’, like some sort of wine or cheese. Apparently then she would arise in 2020, blow away the Nat-NZFirst coalition, and lead us all the Land of Milk & Honey. As an aside, you could say we already have the former, but the drop in bee numbers make the latter unlikely 🙁
However, that is utter Billshit. It simply gives the Nats Dirty Politics machine 3 whole years to well and truly bury her reputation. Look how easily they deflated Jacindamania enough in the short space of two weeks to keep themselves in the frame for perpetuating their grip on power.
That crazy couple of weeks, when she assumed the mantle of Labour leadership and suddenly became NZ’s new Selfie Queen, drawing huge crowds & completely reinvigorating Labour’s campaign – that new kid on the block effect can only happen once. And it’s either enough to tilt this election, or its not. By 2020, she will have been tarred and feathered by the same gutter tactics that have been successfully used on Goff, Shearer, Cunliffe, Little, Turei, in fact ANY political, scientific or social critic of the Nazional machine.
Any bad news coming from the next 3 years of a Nat-NZ First coalition sees the Nats with a ready-made excuse: “Oh, things wouldn’t have turned out like this if we hadn’t had to compromise to NZ First”. This can & will be applied to anything that diminishes them in the publics eyes.
There are folk promoting the notion that a Nat-NZ First coalition is doomed to failure and Labours election to the Govt benches in 2020 is a lay down misere.
But has not the last decade taught them a valuable lesson? The Natz have a vast, well-funded network – a far reaching machine that can easily flood the media with any number of memes, dead cats and outright lies. Easily enough to bedazzle the average Kiwi (well 40% + anyways) and return them to power time and again.
There are no second chances. It’s now or never. Too much is at stake. Another 3 years of business as usual will mean the only force for change by the 2020’s will be the (by then obvious even to the most ignorant gNat) effects of climate change. And another invaluable 3 years to prepare us for that certainty will have been wasted.
For all our sakes Winston, make the correct choice please!
quicksilver – there is one thing you left out where national is concerned – they also have the asian votes on their side and by 2020, at the current rate of allowing them through the open back door, national would easily win in a massive landslide!
The next time repeats that crap just ask them how long John Key spent in Parliament before he became PM.
I was guilty of the 3 year meme.
I worried Jacinda might be overwhelmed by the nasty Nats machine, and thought Winston as DP would help deal with some aspects of this. (I didn’t consider waiting three years, as people’s lives are at stake)
However, now I see the left as having collective co-operative wisdom to replace self interested actions.
We have had government who sees people as dispensible, the final act of a “Throw away culture” Surely we will not continue with that??
It could have been so different.
Fox said a lot of things but I disagree about going back with Labour. If anyone saw Dame Tariana Turia interviewed, it was absolutely clear of her support of the Maori Party going with National. Labour were still being described as treacherous over the Foreshore and Seabed saga.
Winston has one choice, if he goes with National, N.Z. First will end up like the Maori party and after all, it was National trying to destabilise N.Z. First vote by leaking Winston’s super overpayment, of that, I have no doubt.
Bert, are you claiming that Labour weren’t treacherous to Maori over the seabed and foreshore?
If you are, then you are in denial.
Bert, Labour were treacherous over the seabed and foreshore. And not just to Maori, but to all New Zealanders, and indeed the planet.
Labour’s collusion with the foreign deep sea oil and gas drillers and the seabed miners began before Labour launched their racist attack to extinguish Maori rights to take legal action over the exploitation of these resources.
That this attack was racist is undeniable. No other race or culture in this country has ever had special legislation passed to prevent them taking legal action.
The nature of the propaganda launched against Maori was also undeniably racist. Claims were made that Maori would prevent Pakeha accessing the beaches. And other racist claims, that Maori were trying to do a take over, or were just looking for money, from compensation claims against the oil companies and mining companies.
Maori guardianship or Kaitiaki over the seabed and foreshore protected all New Zealanders from the dangers of seabed mining and deep sea oil drilling.
The fact that Jacinda Ardern has stated that Labour is still fanatically determined to continue with supporting these rapacious technologies convinces, me that New Zealanders need to have the layer of legal protection that native title gives provides us against greedy foreign companies and their bought and sold politicians.
You know the Maori party were equally labeled as betrayers for supporting key’s 2011 Marine and Coastal Area act that repealed the Seabed and Foreshore, right Pat? Why is it no one ever mentions that and that foreign deep sea oil and gas drillers are having a field day under National with the Maori party sitting in their tent. Fanatical hypocrisy and double standards springs to mind.
Agree 100% Louis with the gnats having a field day. And there are many recent examples of this field day continuing South Taranaki dredging for Iron sand approved by the EPA 2017 and Karangaheke Goldmine in the Coromandel with protesters being arrested all this after thousands of kiwis marched in Auckland against these very issues.
Labour have admitted already that the decision over the Foreshore and Seabed issue was a mistake and apologised. That’s all they can do, what is it that you want, blood?
Spot on Bert.
Even Martyn Bradbury says the Maori party killed itself off. Please stop shitting on the decision that Maoridom made and stop blaming Labour for the demise of Maori/Mana parties, they did that to themselves. Clearly Fox’s bitter and twisted insults and lies against Labour during the campaign and Flavell admitting after the election that he thought Bill deserved another 3 years show the Maori party’s true intentions which were to support and return a National government to power. Thankfully the voters very much worse off in the last 9 years with Maori party sitting in National’s tent saw through the pretense and voted accordingly and now Labour has the largest representation of Maori of any party in history.
The biggest tragedy is Hone leaving politics because Labour has no real conscience or backbone.
Rubbish, Maoridom have spoken and obviously did not think that. Hone hitching his wagon to the Maori party arm of the National party was always going to be a losing proposition.
I liked a lot of what Hone had too say,but sometimes he went to far and lost a lot of cross cultural support. To be successful as a politician you really need to appeal to more than 15% of the populace. Some of his public comments and language was I feel offensive.
Too much anger and hatred for me.
If Hooton is that worried about NZ First, he should’ve voted Green or Labour.
Problem sorted.
Next.
Good one Mike,
Even English should have suggested all National voters vote for Green or labour to and that would’ve fixed the wagon right away.
Labour + NZ First + Greens go from 61, a bare majority that leaves no room for by-elections, to 63 which is a functioning Parliamentary majority and the same majority National have used to govern for 9 years so the claims of instability are simply not valid.
Winston will set a time bomb inside the dying corpse of the National Patty and destroy them all one would hope.
He still has several scores to settle with that rotting carcass before he is through as the National lineup .
Today was English,Joyce, Brownlee, Bennett, Egleson ect’ and that shows they are throwing all their ‘might’ at Winston since they are so freaked out that he is wanting to settle some old scores.
@ CleanGreen.
I have this wonderful vision of the current ‘negotiations’ between Winston and that power-hungry motley assortment of characters you listed.
Imagine Winston, sitting there with a stick, and issuing commands like “sit”, “roll-over” and so on, whilst these sell-their-own-mother-for-power types obey his every command, all to curry favour! 🙂
“C’mon Gerry, sit up and beg! Good doggie”.
Hooten is just a desperate Natz gobshite full of hot air, whose useless utterances mean diddly squat in the grand scheme of things! Poor lad.
I could be wrong here, but Winston being Winston will stretch his decision out to the max, right to the very end, to satisfy himself, devouring all the attention being lavished upon him at present!
Oh well, maybe he’s entitled to as this could be his last Hurrah.
What a pathetic rant Pat O’Dea, the Maori party destroyed themselves, they did nothing in 9 years with national except totally taxed them out of housing, so no sympathy, their is plenty of descent Maori MP’s in labour, NZF, an the Greens to change the well being of Maor.
True that DJ and lets not forget the Maori party supported National’s punitive welfare reforms, selling off state housing etc. Fox’s sudden embrace of “Enough talk lets build houses” after ignoring the plight of so many for 9 years fools no one and if she thinks this will redeem her politically, shes dreaming there too.
Couldn’t reword that as my comment was marked as spam.
What wrong ?!!?
Jacinda has articulated the vision; an economy that serves the people, not vice versa. The policy compatibilities are there, as pointed out by both James and Jacinda on election night, and since. With the specials going the way most of us predicted, the prospects for a red-green-black government are looking stronger than ever.
Well said Danyl
Interesting to see Richard Prebble on TV trying to denigrate NZ 1st and promote the ‘moral authority’ paradigm (whatever that means). Mr Prebble like many in the media still talking in cliches about ‘one or two party majorities,’ ‘tails wagging dogs’ ‘country held to ransom’, people in limbo’ etc. appears to be still living in the past FPP era and hasn’t caught up with the 21st century. By the way a tail is an integral part of a dog and does anyone really feel ‘held to ransom?’ With only half of 1% of the vote here’s nothing ‘moral’ or ‘authoritative’ about Mr Prebble’s ACT party.
Every single time anyone mentions ‘moral’ or ‘ethical’ to do with National just think recently to Joyce, English and Adams.
If they are saying someone in another party lacks those qualities or they grant those qualities to the National party I think a reasonable, rational response is to say “Fuck off.”
I say “morals” she says Barclay.
Some considerations made a week and a half ago:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1709/S00061/gordon-campbell-which-way-will-new-zealand-first-jump.htm
On foreign relations I note a strong pro Russia trade and pro Israel position in NZ First policy.
But how relevant will that be?
Generally, much of NZ First or Winston First policy aligns well with Labour, and even to some degree with the Greens.
So the negotiations Winston and his colleagues have with the Nats, are they only done for the purpose of having a few pieces to bargain with, when talking to Labour, suggesting they must come up with a better deal?
All else is a worry, I think.
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