BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: UMR SECRET POLL – National 41% Labour/Greens 45%

By
Martyn Bradbury
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78
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The private internal polling done by UMR that far Right fanatic Matthew Hooton was gloatingly using on Radio NZ this week was correct polling, BUT it was the old Poll.

The latest UMR internal Polling has shown a massive drop in support for Key.

National – 41%

Labour/Greens – 45%

NZ First – 10%

The Labour Green split is Labour 33% and Greens 12%.

The greatest thing the Memorandum of Understanding has created is a changed perception of how the results must now be presented by the mainstream media. In NZ, Political Polls are reported on like sports results. Each month Labour would be 28% and National 47%, the perception is National is insurmountable.

Since the Memorandum of Understanding, the First Past the Post mainstream media have had to start reporting the results as MMP ones. This perception change now allows Opposition voters to see they can win.

Combine this with a Housing crisis that is nearing meltdown, a Government caught up in its own  sophistry and a flat footed media who now have to keep up with a 5th estate news media that is countering their narratives far more effectively than they can spin them.

National is in trouble, and watch how Judith Collins will move to eliminate Paula Bennett first and Key second as the reality of National’s policies finally catch up with John Key’s vacant aspiration.

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Once these private internal polls start becoming reflected in the TVNZ and TV3 Polls, National will start to implode with a power struggle.

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78 COMMENTS

  2. Now agree to trade standing electoral candidates in Ohariu for somewhere else, say Coromandel, and we’ve got the deal humming!

  5. A Labour/Greens/Mana government is a real possibility if Labour stops with their FPP strategy.

    That would be far more progressive than a Labour/Greens/NZ First coalition. Winnie is a risk and we all know NZ First can’t even say they won’t jump into bed with Key & ACT.

    A Labour/Greens/Mana government would give us policies closer to Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn. If Winnie starts playing power games a Labour/Greens/NZ First government would be more conservative.

    Winnie is a risk the left cannot take.

    • Good to have Winnie as a security anyway because we haven’t seen Nationals” next round of “Dirty politics” yet and be sure they will have one for sure which will be set to lower their loss no doubt.

      So keeping Winnie with us will ultimately ensure the nasty bloody Nat’s are finally gone this time!!!!!!!

      • The strategy in Northland needs to be Winnie for MP, (vote to block National), party vote for Labour.

    • Agree. NZF supporters dislike my reminding them that in 1996 Winston jumped for the sake of being offered Deputy Prime Minister’s position. All their sophistries to justify his betrayal of the Left will never convince me he wouldn’t do it again. If Judith Collins became leader before the election he definitely wouldn’t!

      • Nothing compared to Labour’s betrayal with Rogernomics. In fact, Labour has not even been a left wing party since.

        • Oh move on, after the mess this lot made, Rodger and his mate Ken look like a bit of a hic up in history, particularly given the good stuff National have destroyed.

    • Labour are not using a FPP strategy. The MoU and the call for other parties to join them to remove the Nats is proof of that.

      • True, the MoU does suggest they have moved away from FPP strategy, but we’ll see what happens in Te Tai Tokerau.

        If they kill off Mana again then Labour are shifting the political centre to the right, and that is very self-defeating in an MMP system.

        National’s image of centrism is a result of ACT existing. If Labour understood MMP they’d gift Te Tai Tokerau to Mana.

        Labour needs to stop chasing the centre and instead redefine the centre.

        • Labour didn’t kill off Mana. And as far as I know, the electorate appear to be happy with kelvin Davis. It’s going to be hard for Hone, who I think has some bridges to mend. Instead of Hone going after the National Maori party, maybe he should have a cup of tea and a chat with the Lab/Greens.

  6. the battle of the dominatrixes!! bring it on–Collins, Bennett, Adams or Parata will never have the “attraction” of the Parnell Ponytail Puller for the aspirationals

  7. We armchair strategists are going to find it rather easier to map a route to success on a rising tide than on an ebbing one.

    The entrails are looking promising. And what’s more, I saw a stork flying towards the left the other day.

    An equally telling prognostication came on Backbenchers on Wednesday night. Peter Dunne, the eternal chameleon-survivor from Ohariu, announced how he proud he was of the ten years he had spent as a Labour MP, while be-Labouring how much time he spent on a project that included all parties in parliament but National.

    Now that is real augury.

    • Stuff The Politicians; But what will Winston do ?

      “I suspect, once a Tory, always a Tory.
      And the same old story will continue..”

      Well STP you may recall that National was less of a “sell everything” in the past right?

      Even during Winnies stunt in National during the 1990’s he held them back from selling all then so he wont join any party left or right who have now sold most everything we have now!!!!

      Your answer is there STP = he will not go with the Nat’s period!

      Put your money on this as he has vowed to even buy them back, has any other party yet promised that besides him???

  9. Let’s see how greedy the electorate will be after the 3 billion dollar lolly scramble which will be Keys last gamble next year.
    We will find out how much value kiwis put in egalitarianism.
    Labour must not underestimate this cabal , they won’t give up power without a fight.
    The dirty tricks brigade will try every trick in the book.
    It will be dirty even if Collins rolls the rich man.
    I want too see Labour keep gaining too feel a bit easier.

    • 10000% MOSA

      You have this correct, and I say he will even borrow to the hilt even much more, to do even much much more to buy everyone’s attention this election, be absolutely sure of this!

      As he has far to much to loose now after bringing the country almost to ruin.

    • More tax cuts could hurt National. Many people see them as part of the problem: degraded services and a do-nothing government (unless someone else pays for it).

    • “It will be dirty even if Collins rolls the rich man.”
      Collins hasn’t an ethical cell in her body. If she does roll the others, look for even more dishonesty (remember Oravida, etc) and dirty tricks. Remember the connection between Collins and Slater…

  10. Great to see the Labour/Greens MoU is proving its worth. Pre election MMP working at last, thank goodness.

    Can’t wait to see how msm interprets these results, if it does that is!

  11. I wonder if Whale Oil will publish this news…I guess not, he’s too busy supporting the KKK who follows his idiotic blog site…its great news and proves that change is possible…

    • Don’t put your money on it PETER.

      WHALEOIL only deals in myths not facts we all witness’s that many times.

    • Yes brace for it comrades! Troll attack is imminent.

      [Not on my watch, folks. – ScarletMod]

  14. Good article in the Herald today by Dame Anne Salmond.

    Basically puts govts like the Key led one squarely in its place. Neo liberalism has had its day. And accordingly that sentiment is being echoed right throughout the West.

    We are seeing it collapse right before our very eyes – and right here in NZ as well.

    Keys govt is jaded. It was only a matter of time , and that time is now upon us. And these polls are reflecting this. The neo liberal dogma has its inbuilt Archilles heel in the form of ideological rigidity , and we see this with the housing crisis. It is no longer good enough or acceptable to entertain ideas of ‘ let the market sort it out’.

    That is not what we elect and pay our politicians to to do. We elect and pay them handsomely to govern. Not abdicate responsibility. And this is what the housing crisis is all about. Govt abdication and adhering to the philosophy of ‘ letting the market sort it out’.

    Clearly the voting public are now thinking otherwise.

    They are also seeing and thinking that the demise and degradation of our social services is not good enough , especially when we look and ask just where are all the tax dollars going? Why are the top earners and corporate’s paying little or no taxes?

    Why are vanity projects receiving millions while the most vulnerable in society are going without the basics ?

    These are only some of the questions being asked, and again , as these polls are reflecting, people are dissatisfied with the 30 year failure of neo liberalism. Expect a change of govt in 2017.

    Its on its way … and there is nothing Collins, Bennett , English or even Key can do now to turn back this tide.

    The Keyl ed govt is in its last year . Its over.

  15. If that shift is looking more solid over time, I would not be surprised if John Key cuts and runs… and good riddance to him too.

    • If the “Shipley Effect” occurs, no matter what the Nats come up with it will be;

      (a) seen as panicking

      (b) hastily released and not well thought out (like Joyce’s ridiculous tweet on HNZ not paying a paying this, and next year)

      (c) derided with scorn as too little, too late

      It seems that Duncan Garner’s gushing-comment on Election night, 2014, that Key was on track for a fourth term, was somewhat premature.

      • I met one of Garner’s old girlfriends at a party once. She also used the word premature to describe him. I asked her, did she mean immature? She said no. Also, some of this anecdote may be fictional.

    • At least National can celebrate that housing has risen 85% in the last 4 years.

      Does that translate, that only 15% of people can afford to buy?

    • Yes the Winnie and the Rich man 51% it is possible, though a lot of NZF mps hate Key and his government incl Ron Mark.
      But power corrupts and hatreds can be put too one side for expediency.
      Maybe it should be a 3 month trial just like in the real NZ.
      I will celebrate when the left has a majority and can GOVERN for 3 years and i can listen to the PM without feeling i am being deceived and its not some shit from Crosby /Textor that they want me too hear and cringe every time he treats anything serious with a joke.

    • Shit! the Trolls have begun already!

      Wow if they smart that much already, – isn’t is very satisfying to say the least.

  18. Winston abandoned the Left in 1996 for the sake of ‘baubles of office’ – Deputy Prime Minister in the Bolger Government. I would never trust him again to not repeat, even though if Judith Collins became leader of the Nats into the next election there is no chance! And that would be an an assessment by JK and BE that their time had ended, or was due to end.

    • Winston apologized in 1998, hasn’t supported the Nats since. He hates John key, and I don’t think he likes anyone in National, no matter who they appoint to replace John the Con.

    • Peter how many u turns and lies has Key told in eight years now???

      Over four hundred and fifty!!!!!

      So if you are making a point of trust, – is Key more trust worthy than Winnie?

      If so why??

    • No Country Boy,

      Bastille Day will come around again and their heads will be severed if found guilty again for their crimes against the people as happened on that day against the bourgeoisie when King Louis and his wife Marie-Antoinette were sent to the guillotine for treason in 1793.

      Is Key also causing treason again?

  20. For as long as we can remember the Key govenrment has quite literally turned its back on NZers and especially NZers in need. And when I say ‘NZers in need’ I am referring to those on low incomes, the homeless and many who now find it so hard to make ends meet.
    In particular there are parts of the country that have now become too expensive and unafforable for those who are seeking security whether it be a home or somewhere safe.
    NZ has now become a capitalistic country thanks to the ‘non-interferrence’ policies of the John Key government.
    Over the past almost 8 years many of us(NZers)have seen a marked increase in homeless people. There are a huge number of NZers now living in cars, in doorways, under bridges, And all Key & Co can say is “It’s not OUR fault and blame a previous Labour government(the Helen Clark government by the way)from almost a decade ago”.
    John Key, Steven Joyce, Gerry Brownlee and many others in the dysfuctional government blame others for THEIR mistakes. The time of blaming a previous government has way passed its USED BY date. It’s time to stop blaming and come up with something that HELPS NZers and not destroy and demoralise NZers. Blaming a previous government is now a lousy cop-out but something Key & co are leaving a lasting legacy of in their time as government.
    One observation of the Key government is it looks like the MPs do not talk to each other. For example Paula Bennett did not tell Bill English(when English was talking about his most recent Budget)of her plan to give homeless people in Auckland the incentive of getting out of Auckland for $5000.
    All in all and out of this legacy(again)on an out of touch with reality government it is becoming quite obvious that despite his speech in 2007 about the pending housing crisis that John Key has never, ever had any policies in place to deal with the epidemic of the housing crisis. But it’s likely money talks and for Key that is more important than NZers especially those on low income, poorly educated and not capable of donating huge sums to the National Party.
    And so the Key government and the National Party have come across as the type of political party that those with money can buy and bribe.
    It’s a shame this govenrment has demeaned this government to such a poor level and all in the pursuit of greed, power, ego, vanity and pure selfishness through and through.
    And so I suggest that as this government has turned its back on the people then it’s time the people turned their backs upon this government.And so it’s also time NZers turned their backs on the Maori Party, United Future and the ACT party as they have been conspicious by their lack of action when it truly comes to what is in the best interest of New Zealanders. So next time a National MP, a United Future MP, an ACT party MP and even a Maori Party MP attends a meeting then NZers should get up and quite literally turn their backs on these hyprocrites.

    • Brilliant JUSTME. most of these politician’s are committing crimes against the people as Louis and Antoinette did then.
      .
      They should repent! or face the charges at,—————— the election at least.

  21. Even though National’s slogan was ‘ Working for New Zealand’ – nothing could be further from the truth – our government is simply NOT working for us at all. Will be glad to see the back of them.
    New Zealand can do so, so, much better.

    • False advertising I reckon, this should be brought before the Advertising Standards Commissioner, also “the Brighter Future Campaign” was false advertising, and the TPP Agreement is not a Free Trade Agreement at all, it further strengthens the multi nationals hold over the food & drug supply and diminishes our sovereignty.

  22. The best campaign billboard that Labour/Greens can make is one that reads:

    “Do you want to change the Government, or do you want Winston to decide for you?”

    • I doubt whether Winston and NZF will go with National, his policies are more aligned to Labour/Greens, however he would be stupid to show his hand before the election as most of his swing votes are going to come from disillusioned National voters.

    • I doubt whether Winston and NZF will go with National, his policies are more aligned to Labour/Greens, however he would be stupid to show his hand before the election as most of his swing votes are going to come from disillusioned National voters.

    • Absolutely, but it will still depend on getting everyone on the roll and everyone getting out to vote. This country cannot afford another missing million.

  23. http://nzfirst.org.nz/updates/event

    Winston is an asset check how hard he is working still.

    For those who are putting Winston down as a Tory was dismissed in 1992 by National and started his own Party then with 17 seats!!!!!!!

    So look for him to stay there for a sensible policy government for all New Zealanders not just the “interest groups”

    http://nzfirst.org.nz/winston-peters
    QUOTE

    “Following 1990 election was appointed Minister of Maori Affairs when he developed the Ka Awatea report – a blueprint for Maori development. After a prolonged disagreement with the National Party leadership, over economic and foreign ownership policy issues, was dismissed from Cabinet in October 1991. As a backbencher, he remained in National caucus until October 1992.

    Resigned from Parliament March 1993, resulting in a by-election on 17 April 1993 in which he stood as an independent, gaining 90.8% of votes. Set up the New Zealand First Party on 18 July 1993 and the party won two seats at the 1993 elections. New Zealand First won 17 seats in the first MMP election in 1996.

    PLEASE DONT DISMISS WINSTON AS A TORY. HE LEFT THE PARTY HIMSELF.

  24. As long as puppets like Fran O’Sullivan think the likes of Coleman and Goldsmith are Nationals future then ordinary New Zealanders have none.

    “Jonathan Coleman and Paul Goldsmith are part of National’s future. They are intelligent. They are incisive. They are in for the long haul.”

    O’Sullivan’s article highlights how even rich listers see the housing crisis as a time bomb just waiting to go off, yet manages the pro stable government message. MSM continue to play populist personality politics, rather than credible policy. Not one journalist mentions our national debt under National but you can guarantee they’d be jumping from the roof if the debt was under a left leaning government.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11675391

    • That Government has been widely lauded for grappling with the fallout from the Global Financial Crisis and getting the books back into surplus.

      Seldom will you get to read so many layers of pure bullshit in so few words.

      Fran, a National party shill, as always.

      • Yep Richard as the saying goes, same shit, different day.
        Still remember Armstrongs call for Cunliffes resignation over “that letter”. Well Key has given multiple reasons to be dismissed but absolutely nothing from the Herald contributors.

  25. Even IF this loose collaboration of liars, thieves and neoliberal fanatics are ousted by a more progressive coalition, look at the mess they will inherit.
    Our economy is a one-trick pony. Our public services, healthcare, education system etc have been systematically gutted. So many good experienced people have been lost. There are Nazional Party sympathisers appointed to CEO positions, directorships, local governance roles etc everywhere. They are unlikely to be in a cooperative mood with anyone trying to change policy direction.
    The media will be fed plenty of leaks to help push their propaganda. And before ya’ know it, the ZB listeners will be voting in more of what we have now. It’s a pretty grim picture, but, based on what we’ve seen the NZ public be prepared to suck up over the last 30 years, entirely plausible.

  26. Great news, Hopefully in the months coming they lab/greens can eat into more of the nat vote and get 2-4 % from Nzf who we need to start going majorly for as well!

    We can’t trust NZF they need to be seen as a tory ally, its not just disgruntled old labour supporters and racist elderly people supporting him (which was bad enough) its being taken over by the hacks from the conservatives and angry nat supporters so we need to eat into their support to the point they can’t prop a nat govt up

      • Watch your backs all opposition party folks as the grim reaper of SS Joyce/Key dirty politics will dig more dirt as they did last time and whittle down any lead we have, till we need Winston as a backup, be sure of this.

        No time to be complacent now!

        That’s a fools game.

  27. It still remains hard to believe that even around 40% still are asleep and brainwashed to believe that John Key is a trustworthy and honourable man.
    His party has shit on the people; the environment and given the corporations etc. the support that they do not deserve.

    I am hoping that more will wake up and smell the reality of the huge debt he and his party have gifted us with while lying about how well of everything is.

    I find it very hard to fathom NZ First joining forces with National. Very hard. Winston is far better off with open minded and awake and aware folks.

  30. nice scoop but bollocks that the media don’t report the results as combined. I guess you needed to pad the story out since really all you had was the numbers.

  31. I have not read anything so fantastic for years, omg let the revolution begin. All we need is that stupid Maori party to walk away and we could have houses for our homeless, 44,000 children in warm secure homes, going to school and not getting sick with poverty related illnesses. I am so sick of the lies, decept, corrupt, flip-flop, arrogance we see from the gNats. I hope that when we have an election , like 2013 in ChCh, and we see the gNat A Team demolished in every electric they stand in….. After the EQ we did it down here. Now let NZ do the same.

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