2 months until 2023 Election – Winners, Losers, Predictions and chance of a hung Parliament snap election
The next election is 2 months away on Saturday, 14 October 2023.
The latest Roy Morgan Poll highlights how stark the Labour/Green/Māori Party vs ACT/National/NZ First blocks have become…
…Labour has fallen below 30 and that is psychologically damaging for the Party and MPs.
The good news for Labour is that if you remove the don’t knows from the Guardian Poll, it has Labour at 30% and their latest internal Talbot Poll has them at 32%.
Labour have had a nightmare with wayward Ministers, but the debates are to come and finally releasing policy has given them a platform where 33% on election night is still possible.
I simply wouldn’t rule Labour out yet. The grim reality of a National/ACT Government propped up by NZ First anti-Vaxxers is a fucking nightmare scenario that utterly overrules any valid arguments against Vaccine Mandates, Co-governance or 3 Waters!
There are enough educated people in NZ to see that the Alliance off Arseholes would take this country backwards 100 years.
They are voting Labour no matter how many unaccountable unelected Wellington Bureaucrats Kiri Allan yelled at!
An ACT/National Government propped up by antivax NZ First is so bad it eclipses Labour’s bullshit WFF increase that doesn’t go to beneficiaries (meaning the poorest 200 000 children get fucking nothing from Chippy) and their meaningless GST off fruit and veggies when it should have been off all food!
The Greens have finally found their secret weapon, be slightly less cowardly and ball-less than Labour. The fascinating insight into the Polls are the huge movements in each one, we are seeing hundreds of thousands of voters changing direction and switching month to month, that shows a really fragmented and angry electorate and there ain’t no electorate more angry than disappointed Left wingers.
NZF has cut its deal with the Devil by signing up to the anti-science anti-Vaxx feral Voices for Freedom electorate and I think it will provoke people to make a stance against NZ First on basic principle.
You can’t allow book burners and flat-earthers into Parliament Winston, this is 2023, not 1823!
People who believe there were nano robots in the vaccine shouldn’t be allowed inside Parliament, come on.
So far, National and ACT have put together the most radical right wing policy platform since Rogernomics and Ruthanasia by promising an uncosted overcrowded prison system ripe for riot, a referendum on the Treaty that will force Māori to accept a new version of the Treaty (which will spark a race war), the right to throw tenants onto the streets while slashing tens of thousands of jobs in the public service all so National can tell you how many hip operations have been completed in 6 months.
Seems like a pretty shitty trade off.
Being able to definitively record every hip operation while the rest of the entire State burns to the fucking ground doesn’t seem like much of a policy win to me.
Oh and Chris Luxon will send you a receipt of information that is publicly available and apparently generated by Chatbot AI which will cost fuckloads for no point.
I’m not even making that last bit up.
While the Right bark endlessly racist shit in a never ending orchestra of rank bigotry and blame games that only manufacture vengeance as social policy, the Left offer glimpses of a different New Zealand that are worth fighting for.
The Greens have finally dumped the woke alienating identity politics bullshit and are FINALLY talking about a wealth tax, building more homes and protecting renters from the obscene greed of the fucking Landlords! If they can just focus on the Broadchurch issues rather than alienating woke wank, they might be able to hold their ground and get 10%.
The Māori Party are generating an online world of connection and shared political strategies that is identity building and working for them, but they will lose everything if the price for their Supply and Confidence isn’t Broadchurch enough. There is a sweet spot that the Maori Party could gain that would turn the entire result on its head. I call it the MMP G spot. If the Maori Party win 5 electorates and get 4.9% Party vote they would generate an overhang that would make it impossible for National and ACT to form a majority.
Oh the lols on election night that would create.
Comrades we are 2 months out from the 2023 election, here is the current Election Battlefield 2023 as TDB sees it.
LABOUR: 33% on election night
They had one chance to take the election back by using the leak to surprise everyone.
They should have come out with GST off all Supermarket food, that would have been meaningful, this bullshit nothing with a small fart towards Working For Families is a gutless cowardly ball-less announcement that just makes you want Labour to fucking lose!
The new Working For Families increase DOESN’T EVEN INCLUDE BENEFICIARIES FOR FUCKS SAKE!
That’s right, the 200 000 poorest kids won’t get one cent of that money, did you realise that? That’s $73 a week those poorest kids are missing out on because this is only available for anyone NOT on a benefit.
What’s the point of Bread and Butter politics if no one can afford the Bread or butter?
The only silver lining here is that when the Books get opened next month and the full exposure of the NZ economy to China’s dramatic slowdown is made public, Labour’s GST and WFF crumbs will look like a 3 course meal.
Honestly, after this election no matter whoever wins, the Political Left needs to meet to see if a new political vehicle focused on Left Wing Economic values is what is needed here because between Labour’s cowardly incrementalism and the Greens alienating woke dogma, both Party’s have utterly failed us on the task of meaningful change while the Banks, Property Speculators and Billionaire class laugh all the way home.
NATIONAL: 33% on election night, 30% if these two keep wearing hats
After John Key’s jaw dropping acquiescence to China recently + the fact that the Blue Dragons (NZ-Chinese National supporters) are one of their most powerful factions inside National + Luxon’s comments on taking Chinese money to build our roads all = criticism that National is little more than a front for Chinese Business interests!
Jenny Shipley, Don Brash, Ruth Richardson and Chris Tremain are Director’s of the China Construction Bank, Judith Collins interaction with Chinese Officials to help her husbands Chinese Company, Oravida, to gain more Chinese money and Maurice Williamson’s love affair with Donghua Liu saw him become Liu’s personal handyman when doing up Liu’s batch and heavying the Police to drop domestic violence charges.
There was also the wee issue of a Chinese Spy inside the National Party as an MP.
National are the Political Party of Corporate Dairy Farmers and the Corporate Dairy Farmers who followed John Key’s ‘All our Cows in one Beijing paddock’ strategy’ have ended up becoming indebted to our Chinese Economic Overlords…
Fonterra’s milk price chop predicted to hit tax take and GDP hard, big farmer losses ahead
A deep cut in Fonterra’s milk price forecast will wipe $5 billion off the country’s GDP and most dairy farmers will make significant losses this year, according to a leading agri-economist.
It will also impede the ability of New Zealand’s exports to pay for imports and put a dent in the Government’s tax take.
Veteran rural economist Phil Journeaux said that, even before Friday’s sharp reduction of $1/kg of milksolids in the mid-point of Fonterra’s forecast price range for the current season – from $8/kg to $7/kg – modelling had shown that the downturn in global milk prices and soaring cost increases meant the average Waikato-Bay of Plenty farmer stood to make a loss of $54,000.
For Fonterra farmers that loss was offset by the Fonterra share dividend and a scheduled capital return from the company. But Friday’s announcement had turned the loss into $80,000, Journeaux said.
To break even under today’s economic pressures, the average dairy farmer needs $8/kg, according to modelling.
…while our Chinese Economic Overlords build their own mega Dairy Farms that will utterly undermine our dependent industry…
Going bigger! Big scale dairy farming a main trend in China
China’s dairy farming industry has transformed over the last 2 decades and today the main trend is big scale farming.
In 2019 the annual milk production in China was 32 billion kg and according to the ‘China Dairy Industry Statistics 2020’ the 25 largest farming companies of milk delivered 9,4 billion kg of the country’s production or contributed 29%. These farming companies had 1.7 million dairy cattle or on average nearly 68 thousand animals each.
…they will overtake us and undermine us and National with their Corporate Dairy mates have set us up on a conclusion course for geopolitical tensions.
Let’s be clear, we have no issue with the Chinese people or China, our problem is with their authoritarian régime however National seem more concerned with Chinese business interests than they are with our national interests!
National’s devotion for China is not safe and neither is the coming dairy death spiral.
We have put all our cows in one Beijing paddock and it is coming back to bite us in the arse!
No wonder John Key sings Xi’s praises whenever he can!
ACT: 15% + 2 Electorates
Line up Labour policy to Green policy and it’s 90% the same.
Labour and National vote together 70% of the time.
National and ACT policy are a billion light years away from each other.
ACT are no longer a snide political protest gesture from those whose rage leaves them impotent any longer they are a bonafide Right Wing Values Party and its double digit polling shows an electorate incandescent with vengeance and ready to lay a terrible reckoning upon us with a policy platform that is to the right of Caligula.
ACT won political ammunition from the woke cancel culture tactics of middle class identity activists who idiotically attempted to strangle free speech.
In doing so to calm the hysteria of the snowflake triggered, the woke signed the Left up to a culture war there was no fucking way we could win because free speech is sacrosanct you millennial clowns and the political backlash your attempts to censor it for identity dogma is as alienating as a cup of cold sick.
Because social media is so ubiquitous in our lives, all our timelines are a never ending algorithmically driven addiction of outrage olympics all holding their wounds up as legitimacy in a cacophony of intersectionist competition for social hierarchy.
ACT have benefited from this and because National stand for nothing more than Corporate Farmers, Bankers, Chinese Business interests, Corporate Farmers, Socially Conservative Christians, property speculators and corporate farmers, the rest of the right wing have walked away from the Grand old Tent that Don Brash and John Key held in place, and are now an existential threat to National in the immediate term, the medium term and the long term.
In fact, if National doesn’t do something very shortly, they will be dead in a decade.
Part of this is a demographic issue, there are more Gen Xers and Millennials than Boomers as a numerical voting block and National voters are getting older and older.
Part of this is a gentrification of Auckland suburbs away from Grumpy Christianity.
Part of it is rural farmers feeling ripped off by the big boys in the industry, part of it is their weird fetish with guns, part of it is the fury many Aucklanders feel at being sacrificed for the good of the country during the last lockdown.
Part of this is the culture wars the woke activists have chained us to.
Part of this is a leader like David Seymour who is magnificent on the campaign trail, so much so, he will eclipse Luxon.
A lot of it is males who voted Labour in 2020, but have been angered by the Green Party war on cis white males and have literally no idea how extreme ACT Party policy actually is.
We will know if ACT really are flexing in Tamaki where Brooke has every chance of beating local God Botherer and National Party stooge whatshisface. Internals suggest they are neck and neck in the electorate which should wake National out of their complacency.
This all adds up to an existential threat to National.
Losing the white working poor farming vote and the suburban soccer dad is an incredible double blow for National.
Internal polling suggests 1 in 5 rural voters are considering voting ACT and one in 3 Auckland voters are considering voting ACT.
Those are numbers that rob National of authority and leaves it a hollowed out movement.
This all matters because ACT intend to decimate the capacity of the Democratic State, not merely manage it.
David’s gleeful announcement that he will slash MBIE by 50% on top of dumping every climate change regulation on top of slashing 5 Ministries on top of dumping the Human Rights Commission is so fucking romper stomper, it’s difficult to visualise the pure savagery of ACT’s slash and burn madness without weeping.
This is an amputation of the State! MBIE employs the people who regulate the poorly policed laws!
22 000 Bosses were given the power to import migrant workers, of that number only 2 have had their exploitation scams ended and that’s because there is no State policing the current regulations we have!
We see this time and time and time again, State regulators who are supposedly policing the under regulated markets with barely enough staff to look into anything at all!
ACT slashing the regulators that police the vast wealth of those donations to ACT would be tragic if it weren’t so hilarious.
The naked cynicism of all of this, playing on your petty bigotry because you can’t understand the weather report any more because of all the bloody Māori is a political spite fuck that seems to enable the very corporations and Billionaire class you all aim to hate as Kiwis!
The greatest gift would be a National Party reliant on ACT and NZ First.
Oh I wouldn’t stop laughing until 2026.
3 years of watching David try and stab Winston in the face while Winston tries to slash David’s throat while Chris Luxon cries in the middle.
NZ deserves that.
GREENS: 10% (+ 2 electorates) on election night
Chippy’s bullshit Captains Call against Labour’s well thought out Wealth Tax has seen an exodus of voters from Labour to the Greens.
The Green focus on tax, better public services and environment is finally paying off as Labour manage to disappoint with every passing month.
Better late than never I suppose, the Greens just need to keep away from the alienating woke dogma and they can gain a 10% plus 2 electorates, Auckland Central and Wellington Central.
Might be competitive in Rongotai.
Can they implement any of their visions?
Fuck no!
These people have all the offensive capacity of slow growing moss, sure they’ll burn your eyelids open while they make you watch them skin your pets if you misuse a pronoun, mispronounce Te Reo or suggest female comedians aren’t funny, but do negotiate something meaningful in the bear pit of politics?
Come on, let’s not be silly.
I think they won’t win Ōhāriu…
…the challenge for the Greens will be the return of Rosie Parker 3 weeks out from the election. If she is not denied entry and pulls another stunt at Albert Park which implodes into a violent riot, the Greens can’t be there and must actually put distance between them and anything that happens at it.
Māori Party – 3.9% + 4 electorates
The true demarcation of power in a liberal progressive democracy is between the 1% richest + their 9% enablers vs the 90% rest of us.
The richest protect their wealth from any new taxes and our social and physical infrastructure suffers.
The political project of the Right is to starve the State of revenue so there is nothing to redistribute in the first place.
The Māori Party identify this and have put together a Tax Policy that is as close to Socialism as we are going to get!
Te Pāti Māori’s tax policy
Tax rates
-
- $30,000 and under – 0% tax
- $30,001 – $60,000 – 15% tax
- $60,001 – $90,000 – 33% tax
- $90,001 – $180,000 – 39% tax
- $180,001 – $300,000 – 42% tax
- $300,001 and up – 48% tax
Currently the top tax rate – for earnings over $180,000 – is 39%.
The party would also:
-
- Remove GST from all kai and regulate the ability of supermarkets to hike prices
- Increase the company tax rate from 28% to 33%
And introduce:
-
- A net wealth tax
- A foreign companies tax
- A land banking tax
- A vacant house tax
The enormity of what the Māori Party are espousing here can not be ignored.
Labour is here to manage under regulated capitalism (and let the free market do the rest), the Greens are here to try and add the cost of pollution into the price (and let the free market do the rest) while the Māori Party are actually here to disrupt capitalism!
Normally the wealthy can rely on the fecklessness of the Greens or the cowardice of Labour to do nothing meaningful on Tax Policy, but John Tamihere is a heavy hitting working class boyver boy who is going to make Chippy tax the rich!
Pakeha have every reason to vote for Māori Party Tax Policy this election.
NZF 4.9%
Now NZ First are nothing more than a anti-science anti-Vaxx feral Voices for Freedom Party, they risk losing more voters than they can gain.
People who believe nano robots were in the vaccine are flat-earthers at a geography class.
I think this lurch to an anti-science anti-Vaxx feral Voices for Freedom Party will bring the froth from the sub 5% catacombs, but for people with basic education it will feel like having sex with your cousin.
Sure it feels good, but deep down you know it’s wrong.
Which kinda sums up voting for NZ First really.
Voting for Winston’s rambunctious pronouncements against young people these days might feel good, but deep down you know it’s wrong and won’t solve any of the issues we face.
Now voters know that NZ First are actively chasing the anti-science anti-Vaxx feral Voices for Freedom electorate, I think there will be genuine pull back.
Allowing the anti-science anti-Vaxx feral Voices for Freedom electorate into Parliament is like allowing MAGA into the Republicans.
TOP – Ilam + list Coat tail
The Opportunities Party leader Raf Manji has a chance of winning Ilam now Gerry Brownlee has stood down. Sarah Pallett won the seat in 2020 during Labour’s red wave, but Manji was competitive against Gerry back in 2017. If Manji can steal the seat off Pallett and against a weak National newbie, TOP could enter Parliament AND bring in 2 MPs off the Party list.
Watch for the influence of the University vote.
TOP are talking about Housing and the political tax impasses that prevent Housing from being built, if they can convince the public that he can win in Ilam, then a vote for TOP isn’t wasted.
Sub 5% Feral Antivax God Squad vote – NOTHING!
The good news is that Brian’s current umbrella of Sue Grey’s antivaxxers and his Destiny Church QGod squad aren’t nearly enough to get over 5%. However if they added Matt King’s vanity project and the anti abortion New Conservatives, that cavalcade of political circus freaks could get over 5%.
Thankfully they are all toxic narcissists who couldn’t work together if their lives depended upon it, half of Matt King’s vanity project have quit, Leighton Barker lives so far up his own arse he’s named his political party after himself, and Antivax Grifter Liz Gunn is begging for a million bucks to start her own party up as well.
It’s just so glorious.
The rage of the impotent.
Keep fighting amongst yourselves feral Qanon dirt people.
SPECIALS + OVERSEAS VOTES:
I think you will have so many people voting who don’t normally vote that the specials will be huge on the day, this, along with the unpredictable overseas vote this election could throw any election night result out the window when the specials and overseas votes are counted.
Last election Greens did poorly in their usually high overseas support vote because Ardern’s global stardom eclipsed the Greens, this election however the frustration is directly at the Left so it’s difficult to know where it might go now.
My guess is that our diaspora are far more motivated to vote in 2023 than we have ever considered and their anger at being locked out will be sharp.
DEMOGRAPHICS & PARTICIPATION RATE:
This will be the first election in NZ history where Millennials and Gen Xers are a larger numerical voting block than Boomers, because lockdown impacted so many, I think people who normally sit voting out will have a real passion to make their voice heard, even if that voice is an anguished scream of fear and nonsense.
Ironically the more polarised the debate becomes, the more the middle want to sit out the election altogether so we could get greater participation from the radicalised.
The new community nerves grown into the non-vote Māori community because of vaccination outreach could provide the Māori Party with a unique election result.
POLITICAL POLARISATION:
Because the Political spectrum is so hung and the polarisation so extreme, nothing is being collectively done to solve the myriad of problems we are facing post-Covid from crime, to cost of living crisis, to climate change, to inequality and poverty. No big ideas and no real solutions to the challenges we are collectively facing as New Zealanders.
Our focus is on hating the person who offended us on social media. I just don’t think we comprehend what a distortion of reality Social Media generates and the new subjective rage it manufactures.
We will end up with a result both sides will refuse to accept if they lose.
WINNERS:
Greens – They have finally discovered the secret to winning votes, be slightly less spineless than Labour!
Anti-science anti-Vaxx feral Voices for Freedom voters – They finally have their own Political Party in the form of NZ First that doesn’t embarrassingly ask you to not come to the family Christmas BBQ any more. These are the Kiwi who still wear their Ant-Vaxx stance like a badge of honour and who link you into Facebook posts about how Pfizer lied and why you will soon be dying because you took the vaccine. Refers to each other as ‘Pure Bloods’ a lot. These are voters who believe The Platform isn’t reactionary and racist enough for their day to day current affairs.
Banks, Property Speculators, the Rich – They have avoided any real regulation or wealth tax and have been promised vast powers to throw renters onto the streets. They are laughing all the way to their Banks.
Corporate Farmers – Despite global boiling, have managed to get away with having to do nothing to stop their emissions.
LOSERS:
Chippy and Labour – You could call them Pat, give them a red van and they still couldn’t deliver.
Chris Luxon – Luxon could resuscitate a kitten live on TV and voters would still find a reason not to like him.
Rational Debate – The un-costed Prison policy of National, the un-costed roads policy of National and anything Labour promises alongside ACT promising to amputate anything not attached directly to the brain is giving us all the kind of debate you have with infants when bribing them for mouthfuls of food.
Environment – ACT and National have promised to rip up the tiny steps Labour just spent 6 years making.
Children in Poverty, Beneficiaries, Renters, the disabled – They will all get fucked over this election if ACT/National and NZ First win.
PREDICTION:
Never underestimate the ball-less, gutless, spineless Labour Party to ineffectively pursue incrementalism and blunt any true progress from ever happening.
Labour’s ball-less, gutless, spineless ineffectual incrementalism only inspires coma patients and children with no sense of pain.
What’s the point of Bread and Butter politics if no one can afford the fucking Bread or Butter?
Labour’s ball-less, gutless, spineless ineffectual incrementalism won’t look so bad when the books are opened next month and the full scale of China’s slowdown is evident on the economy, but by that point the Titanic has hit the iceberg and everyone’s already fighting for the life boats.
With the major parties now recording less than 65% of the vote, the next generation of user pays voters see themselves as consumers before citizens and their loyalty lasts as long as an app on their phone.
I call it ‘App solidarity’, you keep that app as long as it’s useful, the moment it stops being useful you dump it. This is the same way Gen X and millennials view politics, the moment it stops being useful, you dump iot.
Voters are so angry at Labour’s fecklessness despite an MMP majority and are sick of the same lies from National that they are protest voting anyone promising to smash the current gridlocked system.
The Governor General gives the Election to whatever Political Leader can assure Supply and Confidence, if no Party Leader can do that, we could be forced back to a snap-election.
David and Winston hate each other so much that they won’t concede anything to the other.
If National need ACT and NZ First (which they will) ACT and NZ First will sprint to the Cross Benches and refuse point blank to co-operate with each other or demand snap-election to force the issue!
If Labour, Greens and Māori Party are the ‘Coalition of Chaos’, ACT, National and NZ First are the ‘Alliance of Arseholes’ and their naked hatred towards each other will be glorious for 3 years of policy gridlock.
This is en election of protest votes and we want the system disrupted.
I think whatever block wins, it will do it with a one vote majority.
I blame Seven Sharp and The Project for us being this collectively stupid.
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“Part of this is a demographic issue, there are more Gen Xers and Millennials than Boomers as a numerical voting block and National voters are getting older and older.”
Well yes but people tend to vote more conservative once they grow up so there is that. But wait there’s more. The Guardian had this article a couple of days ago: Youthquake rumbles to a stop? Support for the left falls among New Zealand’s young voters.
Excerpt: “Polling released this week in the inaugural Guardian Essential poll found that among New Zealand’s 18- to 34-year-olds, just 20% were voting for Labour, the major centre-left party, compared with almost 40% supporting the centre-right National party. Support was not being distributed further left – the Labour-Greens coalition accounted for 34% of millennial votes, compared with a National-Act coalition sitting at close to 50%.”
Labour falling in polls is not to do with their ministers, but rather that people are aware that billions has been given away to various groups with woke credentials but there is no accountability or audit on where the money went and whether it helped.
No doubt it helped many middle class woke become rich and plenty of new Range Rovers and multimillion dollar salaries for administrators, but the poor that they claim to need the money to assist, are worse off.
Doesn’t matter whether it is Rogernomics or iwi trusts, once people get in power, fair, trickle down doesn’t exit unless it is made to and run well. Labour can’t even have a functioning justice minister and the transport minister refuses to sell his transport share portfolio. Why should he!!! Sarcasm. Labour and Greens are full of non functioning self absorbed ministers and handpicked ministries that train wreck constantly. They do nothing for the majority of people – only care about themselves and their woke struggles that they write books about!
“Punaruku couple Sheryl and Paora Glassie have spent five years struggling to get any one of their three applications for the Te Puni Kōkiri’s Māori Housing Network Community repairs grant accepted.
The grant aims to reduce the number of whānau Māori living in unsafe or substandard housing nationwide, as well as build the capability of whānau homeowners to repair and maintain their homes.”
Te Puni Kōkiri under fire from Whangārei couple living in run down home
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/te-puni-kokiri-under-fire-from-whangarei-couple-living-in-run-down-home/FEDYSY6JHNHJJK4AMICDBJQXJI/
Too many random woke groups that have huge amounts of money sprayed on them by government, but selective criteria. For example this house had a healthy homes insulation put in but then it is wet and mouldy, probably because the roof is leaking. They would be better to have been given help by Habitat for humanity type organisations that can help them rebuild the house that has sentimental value to them than more and more grants for Maori to repair the house, but low and behold, don’t seem to be helping them!
When the hospital doesn’t trust the house and puts in a container to house the dialysis machines and generator for power, something is wrong! How could they not qualify for the grant, Maori, sick and with 3 small children!!!!!!
Again these people are poor probably due to ill health not poverty. They should be the first to be helped but nothing there for them under Labours rhetoric which seems to be helping rich, woke not poor non woke Maori who desperately need help but are denied by their Maori groups. Nobody else even seems to feature in Labour and Greens now, everything is for Maori and Pacific Islanders – $40k send offs – no problem – just tax more!
The fact that Marama and then Greens and Labour have been talking about warm, healthy homes for nearly a decade but 6 years in power, billions of dollars in hand outs for Maori, they still have this Maor family who are sick, have 3 small kids in terrible conditions while the iwi doesn’t fund the repairs. No trickle down.
Loads of anger about how Labour and Greens have only helped people like themselves, rich, political woke, identity group management that has never trickled down and costs billions and billions that the next generation have to pay for, with interest. It’s a joke to demand more taxes when Labeen have wasted and allowed criminal/appaulling behaviour around the billions of dollars of sprayed taxpayers money they throw at (increasingly) criminal and negligent woke groups to redistribute.
Not only that if they get elected it will only get worse, as now we need a 3.2+ BILLION dollar new health system separate for Maori, on top of the new billion dollar Maori centric polytechnic and billions of dollars for 3/5 Waters. Piling billions into woke consultants, if it is anything like their housing ability, sounds like sick, uneducated, Maori and Pacific Islanders will be worse off with woke and billions in their hands working a separate system for them – and the rest of NZ, (75%) are given the crumbs of the crumbling old systems and told how racist they all are and should pay more!
NZ is careering into third world status, but nobody seems to care as they manage their fringe woke causes that make it worse for everybody while costing billions – no end is sight. Only going to get worse if they get reelected.
Not even going into, how the PM thinks anybody who wants to be a woman, is one and so vulnerable they also need billions sprayed in funding for them and separate everything – especially if they are a sex offender.
So much money sprayed for all these separate woke, identity, systems. Bonanzas for those capitalising on all that free money being sprayed around to create and run the separate systems. Reality check we are a country of 5 million but somehow need two, health systems and everything separated for different groups!!!!!
NZ is careering into third world status, but nobody seems to care…
I care so I left NZ. It’s broken and under MMP I don’t think it can be fixed.
My prediction is that both Labour and ACT will be on 20% at the election.
Labour and their Marxist handmaidens will be kept from the treasury benches for at least a decade.
NZ is fucked either way be it red or blue nominally in charge. MMP is the devil’s work. Nothing will really change, just more insipid incrementalism overseen by the PMC who are as frightened of change as they are incapable of delivering it.
The greens may want a wealth tax and the yellow team may want to decimate the ministries but neither will happen as the blob that is Wellington will just drag things into the mire and suffocate it with passive aggressive paperwork and ineffective working groups.
Labour had a chance to actually do something but they failed to do anything other than impoverish NZ further whilst destroying race relations, worsening health and watching education implode. That is Ardern’s legacy, total failure to do anything other than hasten NZ’s pitiful demise towards 2nd world status
It’s tragic.
The Next 8 weeks are going to be hell of a lot of fun, I have already got the Pantry full of popcorn in case the Local Supermarkets sell out.
It will likely come down to a parliamentary majority of one as Martyn puts it.
Hopefully the fruitcake parties like Matt King’s Democracy NZ and Tamaki et al will all miss out, and Winston indeed gets 4.9%.
But at the end of it all, whether the filthy Natzos & warm gun incel Acts attain office–or Labour/Green/TPM do, we will still be left with a divided country and massive inequality for the bottom 50%.
So for 2026 there has to be a new political movement of the people to finally dump Roger ’n’ Ruth’s toxic legacy, and move Aotearoa NZ into its rightful place as a Pacific Nation and land of plenty for all–bar the 1%ers.
Nat’s will be more like 36 or 38 per cent. Based on i think Luxon will surprise in the debates and have a Peter Dunn and the worm moment, spouting common sense at every turn.
Greens will do Better. 10.5 % For all there faults James does have the odd sensible policy even if they don’t know how they will pay it.
ACT are locked in for 14 percentage.
That doesn’t leave many votes for the rest to debate and argue over.
Atonal always poll higher than election night results so 32% maximum . It won’t be enough.
This is shaping up to be the most important election of our lives, that will decide the direction of this country for the foreseeable future. But the two major heritage parties have run out of ideas for addressing the major issues that confront us.
Cost of living – thousands of New Zealand families are being driven below the poverty line. With no remedies being proposed or discussed by either Labour or National.
Climate change – Our infrastructure is being destroyed with no tax measures being considered to pay for its repair, or hardening. Neither are we making our contribution to lessening this global problem.
War – War is creeping up on us – Should New Zealand take part in the coming global slaughter or not? No public discussion or democratic decision making is taking place in the centre parties on the issues of war and peace. If we don’t decide this issue for ourselves, it will be decided for us by others.
None of the great issues of our time are are being addressed by either of the two establishment heritage parties in this election cycle.
If you are going to vote, don’t vote for the heritage parties, vote on the periphery, vote where the great issues of our time are being thrashed out, and where new solutions to the looming problems facing our society are being proposed.
…chance of a hung Parliament?
With little difference between the two major heritage parties, the electorate is quivering in the middle like a wounded beast.
If you want things to change, vote for the periphery.
Not least because on their side, your opponents will be doing the same.
NZ First
Remember 1996. 17 MPs. All 5 maori electorates plus Tauranga. Plus enough old white people votes for 11 list MPs. Peters is the master of, not joining disparate sections of our Society, but of getting disparate groups to support him without really being aware of the other segments of his support. The master of smoke and mirrors. I predict 6 weeks of suspense and negotiations following election night. By then it will be almost Christmas and anyone who actually has a first 100 day plan will probably end up using it to light the Bbq. We are so screwed.
Why Labour and Greens are falling in polls. Companies in NZ have been allowed to rip consumers off for years. Not only is there problems with overpricing and misleading conduct that has become the norm, but the rise of scammers that make use of the poor customer service levels in NZ for many banks, telecom companies and government businesses (Waka Kotahi), that they can use to help with their scams.
Tired of NZ business that virtue signal to the government in woke speak, but behind the scenes are liars and misleading consumers – takes years if ever, to be bought to account. In this case sounds like they finally have, and in a (small) victory for justice, when One (formally vodafone) appealed, Comcom cross appealed for a higher fine, and won.
One NZ, formerly Vodafone, slapped with record $3.6 million fine for ‘misleading conduct’ over advertising fibre services
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/one-nz-formerly-vodafone-slapped-with-record-36-million-fine-for-misleading-conduct-over-advertising-fibre-services/CCAY2ZVAPVBOLKS4VGIJWU3YNY/
Remember One is one of many predatory yet bovine phone companies operating in NZ that offer very poor service levels (Long hours to call, help centre, many scams around telephony while they do little) but keep in with government by virtue signalling that many NZer’s are racists and hate te reo as why they have stagnant sales.
Boiled over. because now so many NZ companies with so called service contracts to government don’t do the work, are, in the case of the roads, actually destroying the cars themselves with such bad workmanship. Let alone how slowly they do it.
A friend went down to Auckland CBD, near AUT, it is a disaster, cones everywhere but nobody working, and all the foreign students driving around.
Speaking of foreign students, somehow Labour and Greens have turned the nearly 4 billion foreign education industry in 2019 into $800 million, by giving foreign students a free or domestically priced education on the back of no, low or ghost job or automatic birth here. Foreign students going up, but fees from them, down.
Free education for foreign children. Then the free health system, where workers around the world, somehow get NZ citizenship for their family and come back when their health fails and they need operations.
Only live in NZ for 5 – 10+ years, pay no tax, but get free superannuation, health care, gold card (free transport) and aged care for foreign pensioners.
I wonder why NZ is starting to get mad with Labour and Greens and are in general totally disillusioned with our terrible politicians including National when they are literally giving away billions while running up government debts.
Does any commentator think this parthic move with GST make a difference to anyones vote .
Does any commentator think Nationals pathetic tax policy will make a difference to anyone but the rich, we all know it won’t we experienced nine years of cuts courtesy of their last tax policy. And when is National going to release their costs to deliver their tax bracket changes and tax cuts.
Good to know there are now potentially another 87,000 people who will be on low wages joining the Frey and needing that state housing and health system for no and low earners under Greens and Labour. Sarcasm.
Annual net migration rose again in the year to June, at 86,800 – made up of a net gain of 121,600 non-New Zealand citizens and a net migration loss of 34,800 New Zealand citizens.
Trevor, I think most folks are over it and can’t be bothered. They are exhausted by the politics at the moment.
“NZF has cut its deal with the Devil by signing up to the anti-science anti-Vaxx feral Voices for Freedom electorate and I think it will provoke people to make a stance against NZ First on basic principle.”
I think you are dead wrong about the effect of this deal . There are enough of us in the anti gene therapy type vaccine to make this the only possible vote as no other party is acknowledging there is anything wrong. This is a group that will grow exponentially in the next few weeks as more and more people wake up to the
“Sorcerer’s Apprentice ” experiment we have all been living through. ( Well most of us have been living through, some of course have not been so lucky).
D J S
They arrived via the accredited employer work visa scheme…..
Major criminal investigation after dozens of migrants discovered living in squalid Auckland home
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2023/08/major-criminal-investigation-after-dozens-of-migrants-discovered-living-in-squalid-auckland-home.html
$20,000 x 40 migrants equals $800,000 in easy profits for the recruitment companies. Tax free.
This has been happening a while, but NZ immigration and the government still lets it happen.
No prosecution – no making the company directors and those receiving the money return the $800,000 plus sell all their assets under proceeds of crime act, and jail, and sending the workers back home immediately with what money can be obtained.
Nope instead unions put them on NZ benefits and charity which makes more come and more ‘accredited employers’ do it!
Apparently the government put out a special visa to help NZ in cyclone recovery. There were so many scam applications that 2 out of every 5 had to rejected out of hand.
NZ visas are well known to scammers coming here.
Sadly those still living here have to live with all the scammers coming and working their scams here while increasingly NZ’s scam employers expect employees to pay to work in NZ not actually pay them.
Government now filled with scammer employees like the executive in charge of 67% of council spending who awarded a 7 million wastewater contract to a friends daughter who was a cake decorator.
Council executive who gave $7m sewage plant contract to cake decorator guilty of corruption
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/council-executive-who-gave-7m-sewage-plant-contract-to-cake-decorator-guilty-of-corruption/KWZZF4TN6NGBLGSQ65XQY4SUCA/
Agreed, the campeign has only just started a d Labour can still win
Yes, a lot can happen yet–more Natzo MPs sending dick picks? How deep have the dirty politics dept. been delving into Labour’s trash and shareholdings? Have any fruitcake party members been kid fiddling again?
Scandals seem to have more influence than policy these days–the Greens and TPM certainly have some good social policy, and Act and Natzos have some very destructive ones for the bottom 50% of New Zealanders.
Labour is toast. TPM and Greens need reliable major partner support and won’t get it from LINO. The only options are on the right with NZF and TOP to moderate and/or derail ACT.
NZF will hoover up more than a few who don’t like the taste of the ACT dead rat, now that they are polling fairly consistently. Just look at Seymours recent attempts to kneecap them, he knows. Martyn is being a bit disingenuous saying NZF are a bunch of anti vax flat earthers.
Another conspiracy theory!
Stop 3 Haters!
National, ACT, NZF
With a the likelyhood of a hung parliament with an election outcome balancing on a knife edge. To try and tip the balance to the Left, a tactical vote for a party to left of Labour.
Right wing voters understand this metric more than the Left, which is why the polls are showing more right wing voters tactically switching their votes to ACT.
On the right, ACT party are approaching 15%. NZF are over 5%
On the Left, the Green Party are on 10%. The Maori party are below 5%
ACT have the ability to wring further rightwing policies out of National.
The Green Party have failed to wring any further Left wing policies out of Labour.
To tip the hung parliament to the Left.
To get the best bang for your tactical vote buck, vote TPM.