18 months till election 2020 – how is the NZ Political landscape?
It’s 18 months till election 2020, the coalition Government is polling well and the issues are building.
How are the Political Parties faring, what will be the issues and what will be the wild cards?
Political Parties:
LABOUR
Despite the total hollowness of Labour’s policy platform to date, Jacinda has an emotional intelligence few NZ leaders have ever had. Her dynamic leadership during Christchurch and her genuine warmth means she will lead Labour to a historic win. Middle NZ have welcomed her into their homes and they will reward her with their vote. Even though we will see very little in terms of meaningful change for the poorest and weakest amongst NZ society, Labour will have the highest Party vote come the 2020 election.
NATIONAL
Poor old Simon Bridges is on the ropes and unfortunately for him. Judith Collins is too smart to take the Leadership from him before the 2020 election. Why would Collins take the leadership before the 2020 election? She’s smart enough to know middle NZ have respected Jacinda’s leadership during the atrocity and that Labour will win 2020, allowing Bridges to lose the election and sweep into the Leadership post that is smarter. Rump National voters hate Jacinda so much they hate her baby, and for those voters, Simon isn’t nasty enough so they are likely to just not bother voting in 2020. The more moderate parts of the Party will have walked to Labour out of respect for Jacinda’s leadership and because the whole National promoting a far right UN conspiracy that was scrawled all over a white supremacists guns while he committed a terrorist atrocity was a final straw snapping moment. The Blue Dragons inside National will gain more power and influence as white National voters opt out for Labour, TOP and the blue greens.
NZ FIRST
After taking the credit for stopping the CGT, should be renamed ‘Boomers First’. This alone will give them over 5%, they are home and hosed after that stunt. The impression NZ First just gave muddle Nu Zilind is that he is the brake peddle that can moderate Labour meaning the stronger Jacinda gets, the more influence Winston can claim to have.
GREENS
The Greens are pure temple politics, not broad church and are in serious danger of not being returned to power in 2020 which is an absurdity when you consider climate change is the most pressing issue our species is collectively facing. The Greens have gone backwards in the last 3 elections and always over poll before an election, so if they are at 6%, slipping below 5% is a real possibility, The alienating middle class woke identity politics is terribly popular on Twitter, but in real life the woke politics of proclaiming all men are rapists, demanding white bros delete themselves from social media, attacking lesbians for not accepting Trans demands, insisting white supremacy violence is the fault of all white people, arguing free speech is white cis male privilege and reclaiming the word cunt is about as electorally attractive as a cup of cold vomit. The experiment of Marama Davidson as leader has been a dreadful mistake while James Shaw is about as effective as a day old corpse in a deodorant advert. How the fuck being carbon neutral by 2050 can be seen as anything other than an abject failure of imagination and vision is beyond me to articulate. As someone who has voted Green my entire life, it will be a deep sadness to watch them squander their legacy so meaninglessly.
ACT
If David Seymour can re-invent himself as a culture war critic, he has the possibility of doubling his vote by tapping into disgruntled Jordan Peterson fans. The looming war on free speech by the Greens will give him the perfect opportunity to ask the many angry white men if they would trust the Green Caucus as judge, jury and Executioner of hate speech.
TOP
With National support splintering under the weak leadership of Simon Bridges, the rational segment of the Party may well give TOP their vote out of protest. That won’t be enough to lift them over 5% but enough to damage the Greens and sap National’s vote. If they re-invent themselves as ‘Independents’ and sell their system change and Cannabis legalisation policy it could end up being meaningful.
CONSERVATIVES
Conservatives: Their yellow vest putsch was a massive flop and their virulent anti Muslim rhetoric has no place in the 2020 election post Christchurch. They are dead in the water and rudderless now their loudest supporter, David Moffett, has splintered off to start his own hate group/political party.
BLUE GREENS
They have been set up not to get over 5% but to take enough vote from the Greens to sink them under the threshold. They are a spoiler Party and nothing else.
Issues:
Free Speech vs Hate Speech: To date Jacinda is desperately trying to frame this as a necessary regulation of a social media landscape out of control and there is a fair enough argument about that but the Greens and woke activists who need to politically connect micro aggressions with macro violence are already trying to expand hate speech to encompass abuse as well. If there is an issue that could save Simon Bridges, it will be the woke doing what they do best, alienating middle NZ by advocating for an enormous over reach on what will be defined as hate speech. The woke could do to the election result what the Pride Board did for the Pride Parade.
Housing: Kiwibuild is a joke and the lack of State House builds means homelessness, housing affordability and the Housing crisis will continue to simmer and erupt the millisecond mainstream media take camera footage of Kiwis living in cars again. Expect this about a month out from the election.
Poverty: The stats won’t get better because the neoliberal welfare state agencies just don’t give two shits about the people they are supposed to care about. Labour will get called out on this but with no real alternatives, voters can’t go elsewhere.
Children in State Care:At some point the enormity and horror of an underfunded agency stealing children from their parents and placing them into state care where they are abused is going to shame the nation into action. Unfortunately it gains little or no attention because the majority of kids taken are Māori and with no Māori Party to champion this, the issue stays under the radar.
Gang War/Crime: With the enormous surge of hardened Australia criminals being deported to NZ combined with the meth crisis sweeping through the Pacific Islands, there is the possibility of a gang patch war breaking out or some hideous crime that resurrects the Sensible sentencing Trust lynch mob.
Mental Health & Suicide: The suicide rate will continue unabated as social media continues to blame and attack young men as a problem to eradicate while Gen Xer men start to fall by the way side as well. The failing mental health system might get a boost in funding this budget round but it will take a lot longer to see any meaningful changes.
The Economy: If a global economic crisis hits, the pretence of our Rock star economy will be laid bare.
Cannabis reform: This will finally drag the stoners to the ballot polls.
Wild cards:
Global economic crash: Are we looking at late stage market exuberance that leads to a crash or the never ending march of free market globalisation?
Mass civil disobedience: Groups like Extinction Rebellion see civil disobedience as a new tactic to shut the system down and force real action on climate change. What happens if it comes to NZ?
Alpine Fault Earthquake: The chance of a major earthquake that destroys large sections of NZ could redefine everything.
Terrorist attack: Another terrorist attack could alter everything.
Sudden death of Winston Peters: God forbade he dies, but it would change the direction of NZ First.
Grace Millane murder: This murder was sold as another example of rape culture, what happens if there is a different explanation to this death? Those politicians so quick to jump on bandwagons could see backlash.
New Political Party: The CGT decision and reality that Labour & the Greens are effectively softer neoliberalism has opening up space for a genuinely left economic Party.
Colin Craig returns: Now he won his defamation case, he could rejoin the Conservatives.
John Tamihere wins Auckland Mayoralty: Could spook Labour.
Brilliant synopsis Martyn; –
Of what 2020 will look like; – as Jacinda is our best hope coupled with Winston as the common sense moderator and most experienced politician in Parliament today, with vital important knowledge of who to watch and how these politicians are going to act come election time.
Winston has more than anyone else “more experience at fronting “dirty politics” – whom you can bet National will once again roll it out to try and stymie the ‘Jacinda/Winston train’ to a “better future”.
Martyn – I forgot the ‘wild card’ section please include;
“Chinese Government agents interference in our 2020 election”
Pretty reasonable run down Martyn.
@ Dennypaoa Np way will they let Jacinda resign even if she wanted to. Martyn was spot on with her. If Winston spoke his heart when he announced his intention to go with Labour, and can persuade Jacinda to adopt his programme when as he has predicted the global neoliberal banking temple falls down we could have the best possible combination in place in that scenario.
D J S
Next the Greens will adopt in their policy program the concept of uni- or solo-marriage, one marrying him-, her- or itself, the perfect solution for narcissistic millennials, who get too alienated towards each other too quickly, thus shying away from getting into any meaningful relationship.
But sarcasm aside, are you not a bit too harsh on the poor Greens?
They may need an invasion of extinction rebellion members and followers into the party, which could shake them up from the inside.
Imagine the marriage break up and divorce!
D J S
By showing the truer leftists that may still exist in New Zealand and within the voter base the cold shoulder treatment, Jacinda and her semi neoliberal party will possibly charm enough voters to get there in 2020. A significant share of the mostly urban, car and property loving middle class, especially women, will give her the benefit of the doubt, and give her another chance. They will feel less threatened after the CGT has been ditched for now, and they are comfortable with a National Light version of a government, that allows them to proceed with their consumerist, convenience loving and opportunistic life styles.
Jacinda will hold the left and the right at bay, some will think, so better the devil we know, rather than the devil we do not know.
But having made it there, Jacinda will realise that being a mother of a little child will be a greater mission for her personally, so she will announce within no more than a year after the election result, and after a Labour – Green or Labour – NZ First government may have been formed and sworn in, that she will retire from politics.
A caretaker leader will be appointed within Labour, and a proper leader voted for, and whatever comes after that, it will be wide open to speculate about, as Jacinda will move on.
Never underestimate the sense of responsibility and emotional ties a young mother does feel, to do all to make sure her child gets all it needs, and that starts with Mum being there, spending quality time on a daily basis, not on and off, and with many stressful interruptions.
Please get rid of that vile Golriz Green. She’s a dangerous fool.
Perhaps Twyford gets squashed by one of his very slow, very expensive trams?
How truly sad and pathetic is it that this government, as you demonstrate is failing on pretty much everyone of their main policies and is in fact making things worse for those struggling in our society. But then you say Ardern will get back in because she handled the Christchurch attacks like any other decent person with a heart and a shred of empathy would have. Politics in this country is stuffed, when a person can win because she seems nice and kind, but can’t deliver shit to those who actually need it, and are dying because of her inaction. Truly fucking embarrassing.
Oh come on Mickeyboyle we had to put up with mr brighter future for 9 long painful years so 3 yrs of this coalition is nothing they can never do as bad as what we just had cause we had nothing and got nothing including a fucked up half pie census.
” mr brighter future ”
L0L0L0L !
Who f@cked off as soon as the cards went against him. Still he aligned those cards nicely in accord to Obomba at he time , you must admit.
Got Kim Dotcom ILLEGALLY arrested, and denied basic Human Rights such as a phone call to his lawyers, ILLEGALLY impounding and selling off his assets so he couldn’t defend himself in court , yeah….
We wont bother mentioning the corrupt tax havens under Key that even the IMF mentioned….or Operation Burnham…
It goes on and on and on in this country under the neo liberal shit passive aggressive fascism .
I like your style there, Michelle.
Keep posting.
Michelle: “….we had to put up with mr brighter future for 9 long painful years….”
True enough, but this lot promised they’d do better, be different. They haven’t and they aren’t. They’re just more of the last lot, only without the unlamented former dear leader. It isn’t much of an advance, really, to be able to say that our current PM is better-looking.
When Ardern assumed the leadership, I viewed her as a show pony. I’ve seen nothing since to change my mind. In my view, she handled the aftermath of the ChCh shootings exactly as I’d expect of a PM: nothing exceptional. Though I thought her wearing a headscarf was a big political misstep.
All that blathering about kindness or whatever it was. Pfft! How about some courage? How about spending some of that political capital overturning the worst of the neoliberal experiment? Raising benefit levels by enough that people can actually live with dignity on them? Renationalising our failing electricity market? Stop over-promising with regard to building affordable houses? Put real heft into building state houses? With regard to international affairs, taking a much more independent stance as a country: maybe even – gasp! – non-aligned? Decoupling us from the US and UK and EU, except as trading partners? If her government did those things, I’d vote for them.
But not as things stand. I’m a lifelong lefty, and I’ve always voted that way. Now I’m reconsidering.
It’s way past time we moved to at least a four, if not five, election cycle.
>:(
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Mfz4rMThEE
Martyn,
I’m astonished that having written ‘when you consider climate change is the most pressing issue our species is collectively facing’ under the subheading ‘Greens’, you have not ranked climate change at all in your subheading ‘Issues’.
Now either climate change is THE most pressing issue or it’s not. And if it is the most pressing issue, then surely it needs to be ranked number one in the ‘Issues’ list. And political parties need to be rated on their willingness to address the existential issue of climate change (which hardly reflects the reality of what is happening, since the Earth is undergoing the early stages of extraordinary overheating that will lead to mass extinction in a matter of decades of not adequately addressed).
It’s worth noting that atmospheric CO2 will be ‘knocking on the door’ of 420 ppm by the time of the next election, and that practically all the environmental factors that have been discussed over recent years on this blog -overheating of the oceans and the land, severe weather events relating to that overheating, ocean acidification, plastics in the oceans, melting glaciers and ice sheets, extinction of species etc. -will all be measurably worse in late 2020 than now.
Spot on @AFEW!!
We’re working to make Climate Change the key issue for the upcoming Local Body Elections. Why? Because there’s a heap that can be done at local level and if we bring that focus to the local election then next year it’ll be the key issue for the 2020 election.
Good luck with trying to wake up councilors and politicians to the reality of planetary meltdown; I spent nearly 20 years on it and complexly wasted my time, energy (and money).
Council and government policies remain predicated on sacrificing the environment -and therefore sacrificing the future health and welfare of citizens – on the altar of BAU, which is predicated on growth.
I think the only way to address the impending doom to earth as we know it is a totalitarian world government that reinvents modern civilisation without capitalism as the main driver, and that is not going to happen. Its not as if humanity is not cognoscente about the damage of plastics and pollution from industry is causing the earth and atmosphere but the horses have already bolted, so the attitude is ambulance at the bottom of the cliff, may the best man win etc…with Band-Aids like carbon tax and banning ‘one-use plastic bags’ as a panacean …joke…to calm the masses before we are wiped out in the not too distant future.
I’m inclined to give Labour more credit. They did not really win the last election, are in a coalition with a middle of the road conservative party, and even with a deeply unpopular leader National is still holding in the 40’s support wise. Elections are won or lost in the centre, and Labour simply does not have all that much room to swing to far to the Left. But it is unfair to claim they are doing nothing. National’s punitive approach to beneficiaries is being overturned, the workplace relations legislation which will significantly empower unions is coming, and we still have two budgets to go. I’m prepared to give Labour two terms before passing judgement.
Very well thought out, to which I thoroughly agree.
The Greens will get above 5%. The fixation that some on the Left have with “free speech vs hate speech” means sweet feck all to families crammed in state houses, living in cars, having to deal with the braindead at WINZ, or middle class families dealing with constant bill-paying, staying afloat, attention-demanding realities of life, etc, etc
Its simply as important to 99% of Aotearoans as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East (as long as fuel prices dont rise)
Thems whats called RE-AL-LITY
Post 2020, all four parties plus Seymour will return to Parliament
TOP – nah
Blue-Greens – nah
I’m picking a Lbour-Green coalition, first guess. Or a Labour- NZFirst- Green coalition, second guess
Simon Bridges will be toppled Resigns from parliament, and by-election called
Collins will stand but her support is as weak as Amrrican beer
My pick, Amy Adams, to counter the Ardern Effect
And thats it
I would not discount the potential for the free speech/hate speech issue to harm the Greens, and Labour for that matter, if they are perceived as going further than most Kiwis might want. While economic issues are usually paramount to most voters, that’s not always the case. The last Labour government was turfed out in part because of a perception of PC overreach (remember the light bulbs fiasco?) and that could harm both parties if they don’t tread very carefully on this issue.
This has to be the most idiotic useless post put up.
Event s are events.
Incidents are incidents.
Accidents are accidents are accidents
The NZ 3 year voting cycle is idiotic, (so is the 5 year one).
Anything more than 5years is tyrannical and a cruel and unusual punishment.
Maybe ( I wish) the striking children might awake the bradbury despised “sleepy hobbits”.
Trying to predict future election results halfway thtough an electoral term is idiotic.
I am more certain that S Bridges will not be the leader of the next national government (if it happens).
The real ticking time bomb is interest rates.
Once they come back to normal levels instead of the record lows they’re at now, everyone will feel the pain – and shit will get real very fast.
There’s so many people out there leveraged to the hilt, it’s scary.
Jase: “And then, just as a new era of fairness and prosperity beckons for all, climate change induces catastophic collapse of Earth’s ecosystems and we all perish.
The End.”
What? In the next electoral cycle? Isn’t that a little precipitate, even for the chicken-lickens among us?
We need a strong party that advocates mainly for the working class and Maori.
“We need a strong party that advocates mainly for the working class and Maori.”
When I was young, that was the Labour party. Much good it’s done us, supporting that lot now.
We’ve had a party which advocated for Maori: it was a spectacular failure. People should have seen that coming: parties which are designed to serve the needs of a particular ethnic group will fail. That’s because members of a group are connected only by their ethnicity or skin colour: their interests and political views are as diverse as those of everybody else in society.
We don’t need another party advocating for Maori. The underlying issue in respect of Maori underachievement is class. Skin colour is irrelevant.
However: we certainly do need urgently a party which advocates for the poor and the working class. I’d consider voting for it: I doubt that I’ll be voting for the current bunch of muppets on the treasury benches.