Rapid early spread of bird flu in Europe raises fears of fresh crisis
I’ve just finished reading, ‘The Monster at our door – the global threat of avian flu‘ by Mike Davis, that follows the near misses we have had with the H5N1 virus.
It was written before Covid, but it is a testimony to how ill prepared we are for an actual pandemic with a far higher mortality rate than Covid ever had.
The chances of a full blown 1918 level influenza outbreak only gets worse and worse thanks to the massive industrialised chicken, pig and cow intensifications.
There was once an argument made that the rise of the 1918 influenza outbreak was uniquely driven by the living conditions of troops on the Western Front, but the intensification of animals living in cramped conditions to maximise profits near urban mega slums have provided the unique conditions where a reassembled Influenza created initially by H5N1 bird flu that comes out of a mammalian cross over could spark an unprecedented global pandemic with a far higher mortality rate.
The danger now however is that in light of our experience of Covid, would Governments react in time with vaccines and quarantines to stop a new novel pandemic?
The alt-right anti-vax brigade would immediately refuse any vaccine or lockdown and the State may be too frightened by them to be bold if the H5N1 bird flue crosses back to humans from mammals.
By the time a crisis hit, any procrastination by our leaders could doom hundreds of millions to death.
The more caged birds in cramped living conditions alongside other caged mammals, the more chance H5N1 can cross over to mammals, have the virus reorganise for a Mammal and then infect a human.
If the virus gains those types of new mutations, as it did in 1918, we could be facing an event that would make Covid look like a grazed knee vs a fatal car accident.
The danger now will be that this bird flu which stays as a reseviour in wild flocks, will carry with the seasonal bird flights from Europe to Asia and hit Thailand, Vietnam and Chinese bird flocks and swine herds.
We are ill prepared for an actual bird flu pandemic with a far higher mortality rate if H5N1 reassembles, crosses species barriers and becomes airborne between humans.
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The current measils out break may well answer that question .
This article reminded me of John Wyndham’s book, The Chrysallids, where NZ, in its ideal semi isolated location, was the only country to survive the post nuclear apocalypse. However we all NOW know that we will NEVER BE PROTECTED OR SAFE under a power/money hungry and controlling right wing government. If we wish to survive climate changes, nuclear war, pandemics etc. we will need to be governed by a party who has PROVEN that they value our health and lives. Surely that must be patently clear to all thinking people by now! You see, you can’t take your wealth with you when you die so what is the point of having more than you need? The message in the Chrysallids was: “We should embrace change and differences in life in order for society to survive. Thus we can work together to solve problems in order to have a better society”. Lots out there who still need to comprehend this message!
I’ve seen similar comments several times in the past few years, mostly in New York Times editorials that border on histrionic. And while I agree with your “grazed knee vs fatal car crash” metaphor, I think it’s a false premise to suggest that people will respond the same way to a fatal car crash as they do to a grazed knee. I have read that the H5N1 clade circulating in SE Asia has a 48% case fatality rate. I’m not one to predict human behavior, but I think that may be frightening enough to freak out even the most hardened MAGA anti-vax conspiracist. Be smart, stay safe & live your life.
Any future pandemic that involves a pathogen with no existing vaccine and a moderate-to-high mortality rate, will be more dangerous and more difficult to combat because of the manufactured outrage over the Covid response. No doubt about it.
But to get a full sense of how idiotic that is, try projecting back in time rather than forward. Because past pandemics would have been worse too if the same ‘libertarian’ insanity sparked by the Covid response had existed back then.
In summary, we are at a uniquely stupid moment in history when tried and true, centuries-old public health responses to infectious diseases are now vilified.