I think there is an almost spastic connection between climate change politics and the climate change we are now experiencing.
220km winds are not a normal weather cycle.
The warming of Antartica caused the polar vortex to wobble and we are seeing that in destructive hot winds that are going to become a more a more regular feature of NZ Climate.
The disconnect between the Governments disastrous methane policy and their constant cut backs on climate adaptation programmes vs the predicted extreme weather events we are seeing now is so enormous.
This is a climate denial Government!
In an open letter shared with the Financial Times, 26 climate scientists from around the world warned that New Zealand’s proposed new methane targets risk setting a dangerous precedent. This Government revived in June the 100% Pure tourism brand, in light of the methane decision, that tourism advert is nothing but greenwash bullshit!
Dr Bryce Edwards highlights that the recent local council elections had lobby groups like ‘The Local Government Business Forum’ — a coalition including Business New Zealand, the New Zealand Initiative, and Federated Farmers — openly calling for voters to elect candidates with “commercial and financial acumen” and a “pro-growth and pro-development mindset”, part of the problem here in NZ is that business lobby groups can mask their polluter interests with dark Ag money that the wider electorate can’t see.
The good news for environmentalists is that these extreme weather events will only continue and build because that’s what happens when you dangerously warm the planet with human made pollution, and as it gets worse and worse, THEN and ONLY THEN will the sleepy hobbits of muddle Nu Zilind agree to do something about the enormity of what we face.
Turns out taking your own bags to the Supermarket doesn’t really cut it folks.
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.
Because of green house gasses the atmosphere is trapping more heat in its weather systems. Hence more extremes of weather.
Despite you asking “extreme weather – what could be causing that?” – there will be those who don’t get it and still consider it a HOAX – that is until it nabs them personally! Life is so good to them, that they are unconcerned for those who spend every waking hour trying to make ends meet, while others do their upmost to protect our country and planet. All they care about is their life of luxury so they don’t feel any gratitude, just SELF-satisfaction. So those who have yet to wake up to the ‘real facts’ and the links between our actions/inactions and the weather’s actions, had better do so very quickly. They may not be so lucky next time.
Well, try again. As a Leftie, I clearly do not fit into the picture that you believe the opposition to this issue to be. I do agree that we ALL need to wake up. The pieces of this puzzle will all become clearer in time, the dots will all connect, but we, the people are in an existential fight against the ruling class and their many avenues of attack, one of which is…. Whether we all truly wake up in time, I am not seeing it.
I would dare to hazard the assertion that it may be due to global warming and associated climate change but risk being labelled a ‘fake news’ prophet or ANTIFA communist … but anyone with even half a brain must be able to join the dots!
You make a good point Bob. And USA activist Sinclair said about it long ago:
Quote Upton Sinclair: “It is…https://www.goodreads.com › quotes › 21810-it-isdiffi..
Upton Sinclair —
‘It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.’
The extreme weather that struck the South Island over the last 6-7 weeks has been striking in how frequently the warnings came true. Every time a northwesterly rainfall warning was issued for the Waimakariri and Rakaia Rivers, the rain came without fail – in full and on time. Every time the rain came, the rivers rose. Initially comparatively small events for catchments that can send down 4,700m3/s and 6,000m3/s+ peak flows in large events, as the events progressed they gradually began to get bigger and faster. After about 4 smaller events with peaks of 1,000-1,200m3/s the Waimakariri River progressed to a 1,500m3/s event which has an annual exceedance probability of about 100%, or roughly each year.
Yesterday was something else. The rainfall at Mt. Byrne was a give away – 330mm in less than 18 hours on a wet catchment was always going to be a problem. The river rose past 1,500 then 2,000, then 2,500 whereupon ECan started voluntary evacuations in the lower reaches. It finally peaked at about 2,770 at the gorge, 2,720 at the Old Highway Bridge.
I don’t know if this is a sign of things to come, but the fact that this was possible in October, as opposed to January should be pause for thought.
Also all three highways to the west coast closed due to slips and flooding.
The Boyle river over flowed its banks and close the lewis pass highway between the hanmer turnoff and maruia springs . 1st time ever.
How long before all those farmers wakeup and realise that drought and flooding that follows equals farm soils being washed out to sea along with all of that fertilizer that has been applied for generations on ever decreasing top soil .Drought ,flooding and soil loss equals farming demise .
Our current government is almost schizophrenic when it comes to the climate emergency.
Out one side of their mouths comes the denial of the reality of the climate crisis, yet out the other side of their twisted mouth comes the whispered announcement that government will no longer bail out or buy out climate-damaged or threatened properties.
Clearly they actually do know and accept the financial threat that is ahead of us, so they seek to remove the liability of any compensation or remedies for the common people.
Meanwhile, their industrial farming mates will continue to get taxpayer support financial love.
Absolutely shameful. Our mokopuna will pay a heavy price.
THE STRONG WINDS HITTING AOTEAROA EXPLAINED
Written by: Shanti Mathias.
24 October 2025
The current pressure systems causing strong winds, power outages and wildfires across Aotearoa are due to the strongest pressure difference MetService has seen in 30 years of records. Shanti Mathias asks meteorologists to explain why.
The strong winds around the country have already caused multiple accidents, including a doctor in Wellington being killed by a falling branch, and a school bus in Christchurch being hit by a falling tree – luckily before any kids were on board.
In Kaikōura, the winds have exacerbated wildfires, and there are power cuts across the South Island. Because of the difficulty in accessing some of the places where lines are down, Wellington Electricity chief executive has warned people that there may be three or four days without power in a worst-case scenario.
In essence, the weather pattern is because of a pressure difference along the country, with a low pressure front in the south and a high pressure front in the north. “It’s like when you pop a balloon,” says MetService meteorologist Silivia Martino.
“When the pressure inside the balloon is higher than the pressure outside, the air wants to go from the high pressure to the low pressure area.”
Chris Brandolino, principal scientist of forecasting at Earth Sciences New Zealand explains that wind flows towards areas of low pressure, influenced by topography like hills on the way. “Low pressure is like a big hole in the atmosphere, and mother nature wants to fill that void, just like water flows downhill.”
The current system over New Zealand is a common one; Martino says it’s often the case that there is a big difference in pressure between Invercargill and Auckland. While the general shape of the system is frequent, the severity is not.
“It’s dialled up to the max.” For comparison, the MetService team found a “place in the middle of the North Atlantic” which has similar wind speeds – but wind on the open ocean is very different to wind on land.
One reason the weather system is so strong is something that happened in September, says Brandolino. Sudden stratospheric warming, or SSW, meant that the air temperature above Antarctica in the high atmosphere increased by about 40 degrees Celsius over just a few days. “A lot of the low pressure from Antarctica got shoved north into the Southern Ocean,” Brandolino says.
“For several weeks that low pressure has sat over the Southern Ocean, causing these relentless systems of westerly winds.” Meanwhile, high pressure systems in the north – calm, clear weather in Auckland – create a constant “pressure gradient”.
While weather models are reasonably good at predicting temperatures, wind is harder to precisely forecast. The wind warnings are for the speeds of gusts – but hills, trees and buildings can all change exactly where wind goes and how fast.
“Weather is a chaotic system – the models can’t be perfect unless we have observations from every part of the atmosphere, from every part of the world, all at the same time,” Martino says.
MetService’s expert forecasters, meteorologists with at least 10 years of experience, use different models at different resolutions to make a call on issuing a warning.
Weather models have quirks – one model might predict northwesterlies over Christchurch more often than actually happens, or suggest that there will be rain on the east coast when it’s dry. Forecasters compare what really happens with what the models said to create an interpretation of the forecast.
The warming climate is changing day-to-day weather. From a forecasting perspective, that means the models meteorologists use contain higher temperatures and (at times) humidity. Earth Sciences New Zealand produces seasonal forecasts, where scientists make calls on the weather for the next few months, not just the next few days.
In New Zealand, our weather system is impacted by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO – a cycle where warm and cool waters move around the tropics, producing patterns of El Niño, La Niña and neutral weather.
The Indian Ocean Dipole, a similar system of cool and warm water cycling through the Indian Ocean, also affects the weather in Aotearoa. But because of the warming climate heating up the ocean as a whole, the temperature difference required to determine a La Niña – meaning New Zealand has warmer air temperatures, marine heatwaves, and rain falling on the east side of the country rather than the west – is smaller than it used to be.
The summer of 2024 had the characteristics of a La Niña summer in Aotearoa, even though the sea did not reach the threshold of being 0.7 degrees colder than usual, the previous standard for weather patterns.
Earth Sciences New Zealand is now using a variety of ocean temperature recordings, rather than a mean recording, to determine where the country is in the climate cycles. “If we didn’t change the method, we would underreport La Niña,” Brandolino says.
When it comes to forecasting into the future – when to expect strong winds or rain – the science is always being adjusted to fit with reality. “We’re trying to identify who is at the steering wheel of mother nature’s car, that’s the climate,” Brandolino says. “If you know who is driving the car, then you have something to go by to understand what is happening with day-to-day weather.”