NZF + Labour is not going to = 51%.
It will need the Greens and NZFs mutation into a feral Boomer Culture War glee club for rednecks is so toxic to Green Party members that Trump appearing at a Feminist Folk Festival is more likely than Greens acquiescing to Winston.
If Maori Party and Greens agree on an alliance that creates a unified negotiating team with Labour, not only is Winston locked out, we could see the most progressive policy platform since Michael Savage.
Labour can’t cut a deal with NZF if the Greens refuse to play and instead unify with te Pati Mฤori for negotiations post election.
NZFirst is a Culture War Boomer Party who is cannibalising National vote …
Winston Peters eats into Nationalโs vote as support rises again
The latest The Post-Freshwater Strategy polling shows New Zealand First climbing to around 11% of the party vote, its highest since last yearโs election, while Petersโ personal favourability has ticked up several points to 34%.
His approval remains slightly negative at -6 (the difference between those who view him favourably and unfavourably), though it has improved from -8 in June, making him the only major leader to see a lift in favourability over that period.
The data suggests the veteran leader is attracting disaffected National voters frustrated by the Governmentโs handling of the economy and internal tensions over leadership.
The polling also shows Peters performing particularly well among older men, provincial voters and those who previously identified as National supporters.
…the next election will be a battle between Old Zealand and New Zealand.
Bernard Hickey makes the point from the latest polling dataโฆ
Old anti-vaxx men prefer the coalition. Young women donโt.
A majority of male voters (54%) supported the centre-right, whereas 58% of female voters supported the centre-left. Voters under 40 years old were more supportive of the centre-left at 57 percent, whereas over 60 year old voters are more supportive of the centre-right, at 60 percent.
…Old Zealand are boomer white culture war males who thrash in fury at Trans, climate change, Mฤori, vaccines, the Treaty and are virulently pro Israel and Trump.
They are culturally threatened, have property and are economically anxious.
They are driven by Social Media Hate algorithms.
They have power because they religiously vote to ensure their privilege.
The good news for New Zealand is that Old Zealand are a shrinking electorate.
Estimation for 2025 (or more recent)
If similar age proportions hold, then:
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If 60+ voters are ~28-30% of the voter roll, and
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Under-40 voters are ~35%,
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then in a total roll of ~3.6 million enrolled voters (approx current size), youโd expect:
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60+ voters โ โ 1.0 to 1.1 million
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18-40 voters โ โ 1.25 million
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(These are rough estimates: actual numbers will depend on enrolment rates, population growth, and changes in age composition.)
New Zealand is a greater voting block than Old Zealand and that is what we need to collectively focus upon as we move into the 2026 election.
We have the numerical supremacy and by sweet Jesus we need to step up to defeat Old Zealand.
This hard rights Governmentโs anti-Mฤori, anti-Treaty, anti-Worker, anti-Renter, anti-beneficiary, anti-disabled, anti-environment agenda that strangles the common good for their donors interests represents Old Zealand whose cruelty and malice is simply not the future of New Zealand.
Old Zealand is dying metaphorically and literally. New Zealand is the future.
2026 Election will be Old Zealand vs New Zealand
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, soย if you value having an independent voice โ please donate here.
As a boomer that you hate so much ,it might suprise you that I am backing the younger generation to step up and do the right thing and vote these arseholes out for ever .I voted for Winston back in the day and he fucked us over .Then he fucked us over when in coalition with Jacinda and now has a Trump revenge mission against her .
TPM had by far the best money policy at the last election and had the Labour party got on board with it they would be in government today .The greens have a people first policy which is where we need to be going in this day and age of failing economic neolib policy .End less growth and over priced property trading is dead and we need to pivot to eliminate poverty in NZ .
With you there all the way Gordon as a 74 year old myself I agree 100%.
I sure hope the younger generation step up for people and planet.
Just even thinking about cutting a deal with NZF makes me want to throw up. I don’t believe NZF is a political party โ IT IS A ONE MAN BAND and a scurrilous one at that! It runs with the hares and hunts with the hounds โ all blab and no real substance. Shame on Winston for trying to play us for fools. So if the โOld Zealandโ brigade wish to join the tin hat/anti-vac lunatics then go for it but I would keep it to their chest if I were them โ it’s more than embarrassing to be so stuck in the past. Gordon, I’m with you; not all boomers are greedy or stupid, although I have never, nor will I ever, vote for Winston.
You know, no-one is furious at trans. We’d prefer they got help, like anyone else contemplating self-mutilation.
I feel the same way about National Stuart.
Labour can’t cut a deal with a party that has been responsible for taking inflation to 3%
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/inflation-preview-cpi-expected-to-hit-the-rbnz-upper-limit/M5H7XBDX45GYVMF6CYLDZRL26I/
Another coalition success?
2023 inflation was 4.7 Labour did that all by themselves. If they were still in power would the unions be going for a 4.7 pay rise .
Inflation under Labour was Covid related as with every other country in the world so don’t be a dickhead trev
The major problem with the old Zealand vs new Zealand theory, is that younger voters are increasingly right wing, in almost every democracy on the planet.
Millennials were overwhelmingly progressive, but every generation rebels against the previous generation and gen Z are quite libertarian.
Younger voters helped Trump win the presidency.
Younger voters in Germany went for the AFD, in Canada, younger voters went for Pierre, in Sweden for the swedish democrats, in France they are looking strongly at the NF and Marine Le Penn, in Britain, Reform is doing extremely well with younger voters.
Australia for now is one of the few democracies that are an exception.
There has not been enough research in NZ beyond male vs female to suggest young kiwis are any different than their international peers in this rightwards drift.
Young females are more likely to be liberal , however the rise in the tradwife, trad girl culture among young women is a problem for the left.
Young males however are lost to us until Gen alpha comes online, we really blew it with young men by demonizing masculinity for the last decade.
If you look at labour and the greens caucuses, 3/4 members of both parties caucuses are female and the few males in those parties caucuses with the exception of Kieran Mcanulty, are unlikeable softly spoken academics.
Old v young does not work because half of the younger generation is even more right than boomers ever were.
The left needs to win back males, starting by having some inspiring male candidates in the next election. More Kierans, less Jan Tinetes’s and Helen White’s he’s so popular, because he’s an ordinary blokey bloke who speaks like a regular person.
The next election is winnable but we need to move past the male vs female and young v old B.s. to do it, we need to win a bunch of the young male voter back, and we can’t do that by being the pmc or lecturing hr reps
You are right in your analysis. 10 years ago National Party functions were a group of mainly older people now there is a large group of younger people and any of our MPs are younger .
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