The break down of where Labour lost votes from is fascinating and identifies what Labour needs to do to win back 2026.
Firstly the Left lost men. Haemorrhaged them. Turns out woke dogma promoted by identifiably left activists like, ‘All men are rapists’ was a bit of a mood killer for male voters.
Secondly the largest amount of voters lost were those who were so heart broken by Jacinda’s incrementalism that they didn’t bother voting at all.
Thirdly the second largest amount was National voters, people who voted for Luxon in the hope their house price would go up by 10%. These are voters who had no idea they were voting for a race war and giving tax breaks to Tobacco.
Fourthly, the Third largest was Greens, mostly from Auckland’s middle class suburbs.
Fifthly, NZF took the fourth largest chunk and is the reason Winston is cruising so high in the Polls.
Sixthly, Labour lost Auckland.
Finally, they lost 2.5% to the Māori Party which was a ‘waste’.
How to win them back:
Men – The new wave of male political podcasts are leading the drive here to promote a space for men on the Left that they can participate in minus the culture war alienation. BHN has created a whole new late night live online talk back for the hard left and it is winning hearts and minds.
Those too heart broken to vote – They feel so disappointed and let down by Labour’s incrementalism, it will take a huge deal for them to vote again, it will have to be a big ticket item like free dental care.
Those who voted National – There voters are genuinely appalled at this Government despite voting for National. They are spooked by the Māori Party but are cosmopolitan enough to be very comfortable with a Pepeha or even a song. Are looking for stability from Labour.
Those who voted Green – The middle class suburbs that are traditionally Labour voted Green because their wealth tax was far more ideologically appealing. Labour needs to have a strong left wing platform (free dental, free public transport, CGT), if they do that they can take back a lot of that Auckland Green vote, which wouldn’t be a bad thing because past 15 on their Party list, Greens candidates sure do get flakey.
Those who voted NZF – We are never getting them back and Labour needs to understand their sectarianism. These are the protesters that Trevor Mallard radicalised on Parliament’s lawns. They are NEVER coming home to Labour. EVER! Labour have permanently lost 5% of the vote because of the stunts Mallard pulled.
Auckland – Auckland bore the brunt of Covid. We stayed locked down so the rest of the country could scramble to vaccinated. All Labour gave is in return was GST off our fresh fruit and vegetables, it made us feel like our sacrifice was a joke to Labour. They need some big Auckland centric plan like free public transport and free dental to bring them back to the fold (while taking back some Green vote)
Māori Party – After the political earthquake of the Tamaki Makarau By-election, Labour need to work out a deal with the Māori Party. Vote Māori Party candidate in the Māori electorates while party voting Labour. It stopes the MP Party vote from being wasted while creating an overhang.
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The major parties being conspicuous economic failures, there is little goodwill to suffer their eccentricities.
NZ First is fragile, with Winston reaching the end of his career, and Shane Jones lacks comparable charisma, however well financed the party may be now.
Labour is unlikely to benefit from NZF’s decline, having failed to be less than thoroughly toxic to anyone that fails to embrace their most egregious fictions. An even vaguely competent National party would have them for breakfast – but even vague competence would require divine intervention. NZers are decamping to Oz in unprecedented numbers not merely because of the miserable conditions facing working people here, but because there is no credible leadership with a plausible plan to put things right.
The New Zealand Election Study data is interesting, as is Newsrooms analysis of it.
But without considering the context of circumstances surrounding the 2020 election it is pretty much meaningless. 2020 was a unique election result and not the norm, so using it as a base comparison is pointless.
And an analysis of a viewpoint based on pointless data is merely a distraction from the real issues.
Labour needs to get back to core values instead of tinkering around the edges of the swing vote.
Sorry Martyn the Green vote is only going to grow no matter what Labour does.
Labour needs to realise it has lost its influence on NZ political landscape .
All it has is it’s backstory of Procrastination and neo liberal lite bullshit.
This says it all.
https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/08/28/national-and-labour-have-to-work-more-positively-with-future-coalitions/ 2026 the political landscape will change.
From a graph I saw recently 20% of men in the 18 to 49 age group back the Greens and Women were slightly higher in a recent political poll.
If that’s not a challenge to labours right to lead I don’t know what else is.
Swing voters make all the difference. Capture the middle and you’ve won. Come election time if the ‘squeezed middle’ are in good spirits it’ll be very hard for Labour to turn the tables. If Luxon can claim his CEO management approach is paying dividends – against a good many head winds it will be said – the swing voters will give them another term. They’ll be prepared to overlook the rising cost of living. What the coalition would look like … well that’s a different story.
Labour will have to bite the bullet and offer something radically different. Taxation reform. Greatly needed but a risky promise.
NZ could follow Australia’s lead. First $18,000 tax free and salary packaging enabling rent payments to be taken from your salary before tax is taken from your income. The extra income enables more money in a persons hand to stimulate the economy. There are reasons why Australia is so much more advanced than NZ. Gifting landlords rebates whist tenants have no disposable income is an idiotic policy.
There you have it … no credible leadership with a plausible plan to put things right. Perhaps political leadership has lost sight of what is right anyway.
Most people in NZ and Aus, after the Port Arthur and Christchurch massacres, have decided they only want the military to have military weapons not the citizenry. The upshot of that is we have had no more massacres and touchwood, no school shootings.
If you can’t shoot a rabbit with a bolt action .22 or a deer with a .303 and instead need a machine gun, its time to upskill.
Māori voters have proven time and again that they can vote strategically. It’s up to the Labour party to accept that to be true. Do a deal, have some bottom lines from them both. I’d suggest agreement on what our constitution looks like going forward. And just as important – what economics means for Māori, Pākehā and new Immigrants in this new era.
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