David Parker stepping down is the last great Left hope inside Labour (other than Willie Jackson) meaning Labour’s infamous incrementalism is back and that means real danger to the possibility of true Left wing policy being adopted.
Last election, after all our collective pain and suffering and sacrifice from Covid, all Labour could give us was a pathetic GST off fresh fruit and vegetables, which seems like a giant kick in the the balls to us all.
With Parker gone, a wealth tax is dead and some meaningless capital gains tax is on the table.
Is that going to be enough?
Christ no.
So news from Waatea’s Te Kaupapa weekend political podcast, that Maori Party President John Tamihere is planning on a 21 candidate campaign in 21 electorates next election.
Previously The Maori Party was a Māori electorate only party, that they intend to challenge general electorates could have an enormous impact on Labour losing those electorate seats.
This is a staggering political announcement and a strategic knife at Labour throats.
It shows the Maori Party is sick of being ignored and it is going to force a confrontation with Labour to either agree on a new strategy OR the Maori Party stand in 14 general electorates with the legitimate risk of splitting the electorate vote.
Labour either embrace the Maori Party and work with them in the Māori electorates OR they face a challenge in 14 general electorates with high levels of Māori population.
Māori Party 21 seat strategy could damage Labour in next election.
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Maori Party candidates in general electorates will be lucky to break 3% of the electorate vote
They will not be a factor in general electorate results and with the focus of the party being much wider, could damage the Maori Party vote in Maori electorates
I’d like to see Te Paati Maori do a Winston and chase that elusive 5% threshold there’s plenty of conspiracy theory nuts in maari land that could try it on. Y’know it’s not the dumbest strategy.
Whilst you’re correct about that 3% or maybe 5% (who knows?) Martyn makes a perfectly valid point: A 3% TPM vote in marginal seats will result in some of these seats going to National.
That said, ACT and NZF supporters are so disgruntled at the performance of Luxon they’re talking about ending their tactical alliance with National and giving both of their votes to ACT or NZF. This would favour Labour.
Yes, your right Martyn but many Māori already split their vote. I would be interested to see who the Māori party stand in those general seats. I am on the Māori roll and always have been, but I didn’t vote for them at the last election. I do believe it will be difficult for Labour to get those six Māori seats back again. And I am interested to see who Labour stand in these seats. I like to listen to what their policies are first not just vote for them because they are Māori. Furthermore, with my electoral vote I vote for who I think will do a good job for our people in our area or in the case of an incumbent, have they done a good job. Hipkins needs to step up if he wants to get the Māori votes and this will not be easy, but I did give him my tick last time.
covid is pa – that is the thinking of my Maori friends from primary and secondary school days and from growing up in the Porangahau community. That broad thinking also includes almost all of the Maori people I worked with from 1964 until now plus those I was fortunate to play with in various rugby and cricket teams..
I do the same with the electoral vote. I like my MP (Greg O’Connor) so I’m happy to vote for him no matter where I cast my party vote.
It is quite possible that TPM would take votes from Labour. However, under MMP it is quite possible that a coalition of Labour, Greens, TPM could form a govt if the minor parties combined poll higher enough at the general election. Labour realistically would have to out poll National though to avoid any ‘kingmaker’ scenario. That is the challenge for Labour, get more votes than National. It’s not bugger the polls these days its more bugger the vagaries of MMP.
On looks alone they make a good view – all look bright, keen, and attractive. If they stay practical and kindly when they gain some power, and don’t do a Greens Marama Davidson to claim power points, and do something effective for Maori and pakeha good sorts working steadily to get established like Metiria Turei then we can rise out of the mess that our present choices have led to.
Perhaps there can be a Young Kiwis Pulling Together group that can be joined by any workers. They would set themselves up to be the public service arm of NZAO after doing short diploma courses in planning, real economics, effective distributive policy, taxation offering carrots rather than sticks; for national buoyancy and provision of needs. (Buoyancy is a word not heard much eh – remember that bit about all boats lifting on a rising tide). Great to put an end of battling on and hardly making way (see Greek story Sisyphus) – despite being hit by outrageous fines and double dealing from gummint, we could see a new path going forward and welcoming signs.
Me too but man, I really wish I hadn’t. With him as continuing leader , Parker gone there is not a fuckin way I would ever vote Labour again. I thought the Maori party did a brilliant job last election, Greens too I just wish Efeso was still here. Why Labour do not put Willy in as Leader I will never know, if only Chippy had the gumption and self awareness of Little and would step aside. Really, he should be kicked to the curb after the debacle of the Labour loss. But here we go…butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth as he looks around and thinks who me, could be, re defeat. Beating Luxon as preferred PM is nothing to write home about at all.
This is bullshit.
I tried to give them the benefit of the doubt and hoped maybe they had changed after they were decimated in 2017 but nope.
Typical of TPM from the very beginning of the party, it has always preferred National governments (weirdly they were willing to work with Brash in 05 but Brash wouldn’t pick up the phone to call Winston) ensuring a second term of this national government after previously spending a decade supporting John keys national govt.
Running in general electorates might be an own goal for TPM, if they are competitive in those electorates or sends a message that the Maori electorates are no longer necessary.
Labour if pissed off enough might rule out any deal with TPM and call a vote for TPM a vote for a second term of national and decide to join national and act and NZ first and get rid of the Maori electorates and call them a “symbol of segregation and colonialism” to make it sound progressive and not calculated
Labour might decide it’ll benefit more from getting white and Asian male voters by bashing Maori like Helen Clark did
without the Maori party electorates it’s unlikely there’d be a Maori party, just a shit load of national electorate mp’s
All three parties should be working together strategically to make sure all left wing energy and campaign funds are spent on the right not fighting each other.
This is bullshit.
The cuts to the state are killing people but Tpm is more worried about fighting labour
There can’t be a unified left front against this govt cos tpm always has to be the Florida of NZ politics. Doing stupid shit
there’s nothing left wing about the neoliberal rat Hipkins
Typical of TPM from the very beginning of the party, it has always preferred National governments (weirdly they were willing to work with Brash in 05 but Brash wouldn’t pick up the phone to call Winston) ensuring a se
THAT WAS THE VERY EARLY ITERATION OF TPM Tariana hated the Labour Party.
I joined TPM – a 75 year old pakeha woman.
I think they will keep the seats, they are an impressive lot. There only problem is their president and his appalling comments about lesbians in parliament ‘front bums’ so disgusting, I loathe him.
It is hard to believe that after all the years of MMP that some people still do not understand how it works. The driver of seats is the party % vote (once over 5%).
If TPM standing causes electorate seats to go to National (instead of Labour) but does not affect the party vote, then the result is labour gets less electorate and more list seats and national get more electorate and less list seats.
Only if TPM standing in more electorate seats affects the overall party vote does it make any difference to the end result (although if TPM were to win it is likely to create a larger overhang)
pdm I am not sure if you are complementing me or not but anyway, I forgot to say whoever I give my electoral vote to I don’t only think of our Maori whanau even though it is a Maori seat I think of my wider community.
Matthew based on your stupid naive comment you don’t know much about Māori voting patterns if you think TPM will lose all their seats especially with the COC governments agenda of kicking us to the curb. I predict they will win most of the seats again (with the rangatahi vote), but they will struggle to beat Cushla from the Labour party.
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