Global economy could face 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090 from climate shocks, say actuaries
The global economy could face 50% loss in gross domestic product (GDP) between 2070 and 2090 from the catastrophic shocks of climate change unless immediate action by political leaders is taken to decarbonise and restore nature, according to a new report.
The stark warning from risk management experts the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) hugely increases the estimate of risk to global economic wellbeing from climate change impacts such as fires, flooding, droughts, temperature rises and nature breakdown. In a report with scientists at the University of Exeter, published on Thursday, the IFoA, which uses maths and statistics to analyse financial risk for businesses and governments, called for accelerated action by political leaders to tackle the climate crisis.
Their report was published after data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) showed climate breakdown drove the annual global temperature above the internationally agreed 1.5C target for the first time in 2024, supercharging extreme weather.
Without urgent action to accelerate decarbonisation, remove carbon from the atmosphere and repair nature, the plausible worst-case hit to global economies would be 50% in the two decades before 2090, the IFoA report said.
At 3C or more of heating by 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states (with resulting rapid, enduring, and significant loss of capital), and extinction events.
We simply do not appreciate the cascade risks of collapse that face us economically, politically, environmentally and socially.
Right now, poverty is a choice for this Government, their focus is on their Donors interests, not the common good.
Rents are crippling people, yet the Landlords get more!
Banks prepare for home loans going bad
Good to know the Banks are safe and that we have extended the economic pain longer than we needed…
Three years of recession deeper than GFC
GDP per-capita down 4.6% from Sept 2022 peak, a steeper fall than first 3 years of GFC recession, when per-capita GDP took 5 years to get recover; ASB forecasts recovery to peak may take 4 more years
This inequality happens at a time the reality of climate change changes the entire economic model…
Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 last year. Is nature’s carbon sink failing?
The sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into climate models – and could rapidly accelerate global heating
…on the one hand we have catastrophic weather events exacerbated by climate change happening in NZ…
…and on the other hand we have a Government pimping for the climate change polluters…
…Shane Jones social media feed is a ‘pick me’ culture war hot mess that would make Incels blush.
We need economic resilience, we need community resilience, we need radical reform to strengthen sustainability.
We need more Left Universalism.
We need degrowth neutral capitalism.
We need to lift the tax yoke off working people, beneficiaries and the middle classes and we need to put it on the Banks, the Corporations, the Billionaires and the mega wealthy.
We need more Democratic Infrastructure, not less!
Why do we need these things?
Because the climate is shutting down and we face a bleak future where Billions will suffer and die thanks to catastrophic climate change.
This change will be forced upon us whether we like it or not.
This demands more connections, more bonds that bind us together to emotionally, socially, economically and politically survive what is coming.
Māori communalism is going to teach us a lot.
Here are some thoughts:
Iwi backed new Supermarket: Bring in a 3rd player into the supermarket duopoly that is Iwi backed with a focus on cheap prices for consumers, best prices for producers and high wages and work conditions for workers. Take 30% of the Supermarket Industry by force (allowed under the Commerce Commission powers) and use this as the backbone for a new food security system.
Mārae Civil Defence: Use Marae as the backbone of Civil Defence throughout NZ with resources based there alongside new building grants to strengthen those Marae.
Ministry of Green Works: We need to be able to build our own infrastructure.
New Mental Health First Responders: A whole new branch of first responders to deal specifically with mental health issues to talk people down and seek help rather than calling then Police and arresting people.
Artist Benefit: As part of a degrowth Capitalism model, pay Artists to make public art, use that art as a means to deal with the wondrous grief caused by the destruction of the planet.
Māori Parliament: An indigenous Parliament that amplifies Māori political voices.
Universal Student Union: Allow Student Unions to be the incubators for tomorrows politicians and stop students simply being cash cows for corporate education.
Universal Migrant Union: Stop migrant worker exploitation with universal student membership.
Retirement Village Unions: These scumbag retirement villages abuse their elderly and sick clients, universal Retirement Village Unions would stop them being exploited.
Pensioner Unions: Give our elderly a voice!
We don’t comprehend how bad things are going to get environmentally, the speed of heat that is happening right now shocks scientists and with research suggesting AMOC will shut down BEFORE 2050, we are in a a realm of violent change whether we want to acknowledge that or not.
We require a revolution at the ballot box.
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Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.
I’m sorry but Iwi organisations have a responsibility to grow the meager settlement pot they were given not waste it on supermarkets designed to make no profit.
Where does Martyn say no profit.
Martyn doesn’t say that the Iwi supermarket will be unprofitable.
But it would be difficult to deliver cheaper prices to consumers whilst paying higher prices to staff and suppliers.
The biggest cost would be the financing of suitable land and new buildings for the new venture. I look forward to a costed business plan.
We need a revolution of thought….we need to break the hold that mainstream media has over our minds in order to see, therefore break, the hold that big money has over politics. I don’t see much changing at the ballet box.
So far our comments have not been helpful Martyn. But I find your title for this post helpful. It needs to be tossed around like a ball at footie practice with everyone having a kick at it. And get in training for the future of thinking, loving people.
Because the other kind is trying to take over the world and succeeding in the majority, and when the world turns to bedlam, where do those irretrievably damaged and those who are trying to hold to human-shaped sanity go and live. with minimum defences to prevent annexation. Even the whales in their deep water sanctuary are being driven off-course by our technology.
Excellent article and ideas for outcome based, instead of profit based, economics. At some point in the past Feudalism ended and a new economic mode of production and resource use emerged around capital and rentier extraction. This mode can make sense in economies with massive amounts of under utilized economic potential – developing countries with minimal public or private infrastructure – for example.
But does it make sense in the West? Have we hit the limit of growth? Consider the fact that some of the highest valued companies in the US produce no tangible product and deliver a single socially trivial service – ‘advertising’.
What would happen if Facebook and Twitter suddenly shut down through some type of catastrophic server outage? Absolutely nothing would happen. Crops would continue to grow in the fields, water would continue come out of taps, petrol would still be available at the pumps, no infrastructure would be damaged and nobody would die or suffer any serious downside.
Hans Stegeman – Chief Economist at Triodos Bank – a leading writer and thinker on post-growth economics, degrowth, the myth of green finance, and why breaking the rules of mainstream economics is the first step to a sustainable future – 22 minutes – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H3tjdc3PyE&t=1364s
I the South Island Ngi Tahu are very wealthy and have a growing investment plan I am sure if there was a good return in Supermarkets then they would be involved They own plenty of land suitable for construction and suppliers on tap who own a variety of supply businesses.
What power would a separate Maori Parliament have that would have any meaning. Maori, like everyone else, has a vote every 3 years, and there are plenty of Maori in Parliament of both sides of the divide
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