The Quick Yellow Fox jumps all over the Lazy Blue Hog

We would always joke that David Seymour was so much smarter than Luxon, he would play him and get anything he wants, I’d call it ‘The Quick Yellow Fox jumps all over the Lazy Blue Hog ‘.

All very clever, all very witty, but the shear scale of how dominated Luxon is by Seymour is finally appearing in the polls…

Poll results: Who does NZ think is in control of the coalition Government?

Stuff has obtained poll results showing only 50% of New Zealanders believe National is in control of the direction of the Government.

A poll of 1088 eligible voters in at the beginning of October asked, “Which party do you think has the most control over the direction of the Coalition Government?

Fifty per cent said National had control, 14% believed New Zealand First was steering the ship, and 13% thought ACT was holding the reins. The rest – 23% – were unsure.

When the same question was asked in April, National achieved a slightly higher result of 52%. New Zealand First was on 17%, while ACT was back on 8%.

…Luxon has been played by Seymour, the scale of how played the great negotiator has been was apparent in his last gruelling interview on Q+A where the PM couldn’t answer why he had given such a racially divisive gift to ACT when it wasn’t even a bottom line.

It’s not only the Left who have underestimated David, it is the National Party, and their mistake will be existential.

David has a 6 month hate tour to turn the Treaty Principles Referendum Bill into our ‘Trexit’ and launch off the back of that a Citizens Initiated Referendum that Seymour actively takes to the  2026 election.

This is a major threat to National.

ACT have concluded that 20% of the electorate are foaming red neck banjo twanging cross burners and they are making a direct play towards that electorate.

That 20% is made up of a loose affiliation of different groups:

BASIC GROUP 1 – Rich landowning urban white Christians who don’t like Māori political aspirations but enjoy the aesthetics of the culture to not feel so white. The kids are totally in private schools and their names are ‘Apple’ and ‘Bruschetta’. Most aren’t sure what a Libertarian is. They are Professional with zero intellectual curiosity outside exclusive holiday destinations, no capital gains tax and some bullshit corporate meditation daily ritual to ‘be present’, which isn’t that tough when you can afford Lululemon and live in a leafy suburb mansion.  Their children, ‘Apple’ and ‘Bruschetta’ are members of the Young Nats and are fucking pretentious arseholes who openly refer to their parents as ‘Mummy’ and ‘Daddy’.

BASIC GROUP 2 – Chinese and Indian Migrants who don’t understand why poor people and the Māoris get welfare. These small business owners lust for political influence and see National Party local events as a chance to work business contacts while demanding to know why New Zealand can’t have the death penalty like they do back home.

BASIC GROUP 3 – Rich landowning rural Volk who don’t like Māori political aspirations and detest the aesthetics of the culture because it makes them feel less white. These are the ones who complain about Te Reo in the Weather report on TVNZ. They live in the South Island and believe the solution to every problem is ‘More Cows’.

BASIC GROUP 4 – Edgelord Culture War Boomers voting for ACT because of shrill definitions of sovereignty and democracy. Like Chris Trotter at a dinner party no one wants to be at.

This group can be pooled into the 20% reactionary vote who will vote ACT instead of National or NZ First all because David puts ‘equality’ in his branding of this legislation.

The problem for National is this is their electorate ACT are intending to take.

As politics continues to polarise thanks to social media hate algorithms, ACTs appeal will grow, not diminish.

It is absolutely likely that ACT will soar into the teens and stay there, but it will be at a the cost of National and NZF.

This has the possibility of pushing NZF  under the 5% threshold while doom looping National into ever diminishing returns.

The positive news for the Left is that ACT cannibalising National and NZF while great for ACT will mean they simply can’t form a Government and Labour + Green + MP will be the majority.

David Seymour is far smarter than his critics believe, but he’s most dangerous and insidious to the Right, not the Left.

The enormous turn out for the Hikoi shows middle NZ are more supportive of our values on the Left than the naked malice of the Right.

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